集思录
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是长江电力带崩了大盘吗?
集思录· 2025-08-01 09:22
Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) being used as a means for the government to manage debt, suggesting that this reflects a lack of true market economy principles [1][2][14] - It raises concerns about the impact on minority shareholders, indicating that the profits of listed companies are being redirected for social purposes rather than for shareholder returns, which contradicts the fundamental purpose of these companies [14][16] - The article suggests that the government may be testing the waters with high-profile cases like Yangtze Power, potentially leading to broader applications if successful [2][19] Group 2 - There is a shift in taxation focus from circulation taxes to property taxes, indicating a new phase of taxing wealthier individuals and entities [4] - The article highlights the social responsibility initiatives of companies like Kweichow Moutai, which have contributed significantly to local development and education, suggesting a trend among corporations to engage in social welfare [5][19] - It mentions that the financial resources of SOEs are essentially state assets, implying that the interests of shareholders may not be prioritized in decision-making processes [16][19]
预测下牛市可能的顶部区域?
集思录· 2025-07-31 14:28
以下是大致一些数据,供大家参考 上证,上轮顶部3731,当前3582,距离顶部4% 中证全指,上轮6073,当前5173,距离顶部17% 深证,上轮16293,当前11059,距离顶部47% 港股,上轮31183,当前25538,距离顶部22% 巴菲特指标,上轮97%,当前81%,距离20% 中证全指,本轮最低3566,当前5173,涨45% 港股,本轮最低14794,当前25538,涨72% 怎么感觉牛市进入后半程了,最多有20%空间呢,大家一般如何估算牛市顶部区域的呢? luckzpz @心太软 身边一个不炒股的朋友咨询我开户的事情 早着呢! 等他向你推荐股票再担心吧。 glasses 熊市不言底,牛市不猜顶。 当前缓慢上行,很多韭菜都战战兢兢的,一根阴线能吓跑一小半人,说明没疯狂,等到人人 看多,老韭菜都不提风险的时候,就是顶部了。 每次向老婆汇报炫耀后,账户就差不多要跌回去了。最近尽量憋着在家里避免谈到投资的 事,哪天憋不住也就到顶了。 blacklevi0823 看哪天基金又开始比例配售了 你就可以马上跑路了 因为韭菜都上车了。 转身瞬间 楼市熄火,股市可能会超出你的想象。 东楚散汉 就上证来说,应 ...
8月1日投资提示:ST应急复牌
集思录· 2025-07-31 14:28
Group 1 - The company Shanying International has changed its name from Shanying Paper, which raises questions about the reasoning behind the rebranding while still referring to itself as Shanying Paper in announcements [1] - China Shipbuilding Emergency's 2022 annual report revealed accounting errors, leading to an overstatement of revenue by 31.37 million yuan, which is 1.86% of the reported revenue, and an overstatement of profit by 7.14 million yuan, which is 36.64% of the reported profit [1] Group 2 - Shanying International plans to establish a partnership enterprise with a valuation of 2.977 billion yuan, aiming to attract long-term investors such as China Orient Asset Management and others, which will enhance its sustainable development and core competitiveness [2]
交易的最高境界
集思录· 2025-07-30 12:45
Core Viewpoint - The highest realm of trading is to achieve a state of minimal concern and effort, akin to a strategic approach in warfare, where one seeks to win without direct conflict [3][10]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Trading is likened to warfare, where each buy represents a strategic move, and successful traders possess the ability to buy low and sell high, achieving victories through skill [3]. - For most investors, diversification and small position sizes are recommended to mitigate risks, allowing for gradual accumulation of gains [3]. - The ultimate goal is to reach a state of "no desire" in trading, focusing on simplicity and detachment from emotional influences [10][11]. Group 2: Strategies for Success - Successful trading involves waiting for the right opportunities, which can be achieved through global asset allocation or by waiting for market downturns to buy undervalued assets [5]. - The concept of "buy and hold" is emphasized, with the idea that the best investments are those that do not require selling [7]. - Understanding market cycles, participant psychology, and value assessments is crucial for making informed trading decisions [13].
31日投资提示:灵康转债下修到底
集思录· 2025-07-30 12:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses recent developments in the Chinese stock market, particularly focusing on new stock listings and convertible bonds [1] - The new stock "Youli Intelligent" on the Beijing Stock Exchange has a threshold of 6.47 million [1] - The "Lincang Convertible Bond" is undergoing a down adjustment [1] - The "Gansu Energy Chemical" has resumed production at its Wangjiashan Coal Mine, well number one [1] - The "Aofei Convertible Bond" will not be forcibly redeemed [1] - "Dongjie Intelligent" is undergoing changes in its controlling shareholder's upper-level equity structure, which may lead to a change in the actual controller [1] - The "Xianle Convertible Bond," "Shengxun Convertible Bond," and "Jingrui Convertible Bond 2" will not undergo down adjustments [1] - "Dingjia Precision" has been listed as a new stock on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]
30日投资提示:天23转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-29 13:50
Group 1 - The board of Tian23 Convertible Bond proposed a down adjustment [1] - A shareholder of Aotewei plans to reduce their stake by no more than 1.37% [1] - Meijin Energy's largest shareholder, Meijin Energy Group, has pledged all of its shares, totaling 35.32 million shares, which accounts for 2.15% of its holdings and 0.80% of the company's total share capital [1] - As of July 28, 2025, Meijin Group's cumulative pledged shares represent 100% of its total holdings [1] - Haoyuan Convertible Bond and Huicheng Convertible Bond will not be forcibly redeemed [1] - Yinwei Convertible Bond and Guowei Convertible Bond will not undergo down adjustment [1]
生育补贴利好哪些相关行业?
集思录· 2025-07-29 13:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical significance of direct cash subsidies for childbirth in China, emphasizing that this approach represents a qualitative shift in policy aimed at addressing demographic challenges and encouraging higher birth rates [2][10]. Group 1: Subsidy Impact - The direct cash subsidy of 3,600 yuan per year for each newborn is seen as a substantial incentive for families, particularly in rural areas where this amount can significantly impact their financial situation [2][5]. - The potential for future increases in subsidies, such as a monthly payment of 1,000 yuan, indicates a progressive approach to supporting families and could further influence birth rates [4][9]. - The total projected expenditure for these subsidies is estimated at 1,026 billion yuan over three years, which is considered more impactful than traditional infrastructure investments [10]. Group 2: Demographic Challenges - The article highlights that the real issue affecting birth rates is not just financial support but also broader socio-economic factors, such as housing affordability and marriage prospects, particularly in urban areas [6][7]. - There is a recognition that many young people, especially women, are reluctant to settle in rural areas due to limited opportunities and social conditions, which affects their willingness to have children [6][8]. - The discussion points out that the current demographic policies are primarily targeting the lower-income population, which has been largely overlooked in previous economic strategies [5][10]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article suggests that sectors related to children, such as pharmaceuticals, dairy products, and children's clothing, are likely to benefit from the increased focus on childbirth and family support [2]. - The sentiment in the market is bullish, with expectations that any positive news related to child-rearing will lead to significant stock price increases in related industries [2].
29日投资提示:蓝帆转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-28 14:21
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent birth subsidy policy introduced by the government, highlighting that the amount of 300 yuan per month is considered insufficient by some individuals [1] - It mentions specific convertible bonds: Puna Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption, Blue Fan Convertible Bond's board proposed a down adjustment, and Tai Fu Convertible Bond is not subject to strong redemption [1] - The article notes the listing of Zhongyin Zhongwai Warehouse Logistics REIT (508090) and the new stock subscription for Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1]
2025年的反内卷像不像2015年的供给侧改革?
集思录· 2025-07-28 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need to address "involution" in competition within industries, emphasizing that the root cause lies in the extreme unfairness of resource distribution, where 98% of people compete for only 20% of resources, leading to a cycle of inefficiency and pressure to overwork [2]. Group 1: Involution and Its Causes - Involution is driven by an extremely unfair distribution of resources, compelling individuals to work harder to secure a share of wealth [2]. - The total wealth produced is a function of production efficiency and time, with individuals having limited means to increase their wealth other than working longer hours [2]. - Companies face similar pressures, often resorting to lowering prices to capture a larger share of the distribution [2]. Group 2: Government and Policy Responses - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need for market-driven price mechanisms, suggesting that prices should be determined by market forces wherever possible [9]. - The NDRC's approach includes a systematic view and comprehensive measures to address issues, promoting the efficient flow of high-quality production factors [9]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The article suggests that addressing involution may lead to the elimination of low-quality enterprises while retaining those that meet higher standards, as seen in the charging treasure industry where stricter regulations can lead to the exit of weaker players [4]. - There are concerns that reducing production capacity to combat involution could result in layoffs and salary reductions, as fewer workers may be needed if capacity is decreased [8]. Group 4: Historical Context - The article contrasts the current situation with the supply-side reforms of 2015, which primarily targeted internal issues, while the current context involves both internal and external factors influencing the economy [11]. - The article notes that the execution strength of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was a significant factor in the 2015 reforms, raising questions about which capacities will be reduced in the current environment dominated by private enterprises [10].
7月28日投资提示:金能转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-07-27 14:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various convertible bonds and new stock offerings, highlighting specific actions taken by companies regarding their bonds and the upcoming subscription for a new stock. Group 1: Convertible Bonds - Jineng Convertible Bond: The board proposed a downward adjustment [1] - Yuguang Convertible Bond: No strong redemption [1] - Liancheng Convertible Bond, Bohui Convertible Bond, Yong'an Convertible Bond: Strong redemption [1] - Qiaqia Convertible Bond: No downward adjustment [1] Group 2: New Stock Offerings - Youli Intelligent: New stock subscription on July 29 at the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - Ber25 Convertible Bond: Recently listed [1] - Tianfulong: New stock subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [1]