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我裸辞了,而且是未来没有任何规划的那种
集思录· 2025-09-25 13:29
上周四,也就是9/18号,屋外响着防空警报,在HR的办公室里,我在《协商一致解除劳动合 同关系协议》上签下了我的名字。我裸辞了,没有赔偿,和我过去十五年的美好时光和平分 手。不光是裸辞,未来如何打算?我没有任何计划。 我像是一个被父母宠坏的孩子,哭着闹着打滚着,一定要橱窗里面的那个心仪玩具。2025年 前后,无论是在工作上,生活上,我做了很多的决定和选择。为什么要做这些决定或者选 择,就是自己已经没有一点心思,要呆在自己工作的那个方格子里面,我想离职,我不想上 班。这些决定或者选择,一步步将自己推到了辞职这一步。 未来要有什么打算?有想过吗?不存在的!签完字后,自己想着早点离开那个奋斗了15年的 方格子,好像那里桎梏了我的人生和梦想?那么未来的人生和梦想在哪里?等我休息了三天 后,才想到,自己已经不用工作了,以后该怎么度过自己的每一天?这些我都还没想过呢! 眼前的事情却有几件要赶紧去做。第一件事情,就是要将自己的房贷还掉。自己没有工作 了,没有收入的,不能每个月还在还几千块的房贷和利息。我要节流,减少出血点。我还和 老婆开玩笑的说,我们每个月要还两三千块的利息来补贴租户住我们的房子,我们太有爱心 了。 有工作 ...
25日投资提示:嘉泽转债不强赎
集思录· 2025-09-24 14:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent announcements regarding convertible bonds, specifically highlighting that 嘉泽转债 will not be forcibly redeemed and 光力转债 will not undergo a price adjustment. Additionally, it mentions the listing of 新股 on the 北交所 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bonds Announcements - 嘉泽转债 (Code: 113039) will not be forcibly redeemed as of September 25, 2025 [2]. - 光力转债 (Code: 123197) will not undergo a price adjustment as of September 24, 2025 [2]. Convertible Bonds Data - A table lists various convertible bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks. Key data includes: - 东杰转债: Current price 288.000, conversion value 293.04, remaining scale 0.024 billion, proportion 0.02% [4]. - 海亮转债: Current price 131.600, conversion value 132.50, remaining scale 0.363 billion, proportion 0.13% [4]. - 华友转债: Current price 152.088, conversion value 152.43, remaining scale 0.509 billion, proportion 0.05% [4]. - 乙原转债: Current price 153.110, conversion value 154.13, remaining scale 0.474 billion, proportion 0.86% [4]. - Z泰转债: Current price 148.500, conversion value 149.77, remaining scale 0.592 billion, proportion 2.36% [4]. - 强联转债: Current price 175.360, conversion value 176.06, remaining scale 0.699 billion, proportion 0.61% [4]. - 永和转债: Current price 141.161, conversion value 142.07, remaining scale 2.464 billion, proportion 1.81% [4]. - 豪24转债: Current price 265.389, conversion value 261.93, remaining scale 1.788 billion, proportion 1.22% [4]. - 九洲转2: Current price 121.899, conversion value 121.88, remaining scale 1.058 billion, proportion 3.20% [4]. - 雪榕转债: Current price 144.661, conversion value 145.12, remaining scale 0.888 billion, proportion 2.77% [4]. - 领益转债: Current price 170.391, conversion value 171.19, remaining scale 6.506 billion, proportion 0.58% [4]. - 三羊转债: Current price 132.496, conversion value 131.47, remaining scale 1.418 billion, proportion 9.24% [4]. - 中辰转债: Current price 140.600, conversion value 138.26, remaining scale 1.023 billion, proportion 2.17% [4]. - 景兴转债: Current price 177.050, conversion value 178.47, remaining scale 3.302 billion, proportion 4.39% [4]. Additional Convertible Bonds Information - 金轮转债: Current price 119.211, redemption price 110.000, last trading date October 9, 2025, conversion value 119.34, remaining scale 1.453 billion, proportion 5.05% [6]. - 金能转债: Current price 109.900, redemption price 110.000, last trading date September 30, 2025, conversion value 93.10, remaining scale 9.559 billion, proportion 16.38% [6]. - 浦发转债: Current price 110.440, redemption price 110.000, last trading date October 22, 2025, conversion value 97.68, remaining scale 296.050 billion, proportion 7.83% [6]. - 天路转债: Current price 301.020, redemption price 110.000, last trading date October 22, 2025, conversion value 300.24, remaining scale 1.190 billion, proportion 0.71% [6]. - 通光转债: Current price 180.000, redemption price 113.000, last trading date October 29, 2025, conversion value 115.48, remaining scale 0.769 billion, proportion 1.84% [6].
不是说牛市最大的特征是轮动么?
集思录· 2025-09-24 14:35
以前听炒股的老登们吹牛,总说牛市最讲究 "雨露均沾",轮动起来才叫热闹 —— 龙头股翻 倍上天没关系,券商、电力这些 "老伙计" 总能跟着大盘喝口汤,中证全指往上走的时候,谁 也不至于被落下太远。 瞅瞅当下的 A 股,简直疯得没边了!芯片、光模块、创新药、机器人、存储、固态电池这几 个主儿跟走秀似的,在舞台中央来回蹦跶,资金跟见了亲爹似的往上凑,涨得让人怀疑人 生。可另一边呢?传统板块被吸得连血都快空了,跌得比正经熊市还惨,这哪是轮动,分明 是 "精准抽血"!资金在科技那小圈子里玩闭环,外面的板块饿死都没人管,这吃相也太难看 了吧? 最讽刺的是券商板块,这货可是牛市的 "传统信号弹" 啊!现在倒好,跟被点了穴似的一动不动。不管 行业怎么扩容,明眼人都知道,半年报刚亮眼完,三季报 50%-100% 的增长基本是板上钉钉的事儿,结 果股价死活不动窝。合着业绩是给股东画的饼,股价是给散户泼的冷水?这要是算牛市,那我家楼下卖 菜的大妈都能当股神了。 翻遍历史也少见这么无耻的走法!某某证券都复盘过,以前再极致的分化行情迟早要收敛, 要么是热门板块自己凉了,要么是宏观政策给纠偏了。可现在倒好,资金虹吸效应越来越离 谱,科 ...
这个组合还能玩下去吗?
集思录· 2025-09-23 14:14
读《哈利布朗的永久投资组合》一书,发现了很多需要补充的细节。 回顾一下永久组合的内容: 25%股票:受益于经济繁荣(增长)。 25%长期国债:受益于经济衰退和利率下降(通缩)。 25%黄金:受益于货币信用危机和通货膨胀(避险)。 25%现金:提供流动性,并在通缩中增强购买力(稳定)。 目前股票,30年国债,黄金,怎么都感觉在高位 这个组合还能玩下去吗? 数据A 这种投资组合,收益可能就只有5%左右,不好的年份还会亏损。 其它三种都是稳定资产。最大的收益来源是股票,遇到牛市股票就算涨100%,因为四分之一 的仓位,带来的整体收益也只有25%。 你能忍受黄金10年不涨吗? 你能忍受30年国债持有10年后反而亏损吗? 你能忍受现金不断超发,货币购买力不断下降吗? hare001 我配置过,30 年国债涨幅基本都吃到了,目前保留的是现金、标普 500 和黄金,总体感觉 还行吧,也是弱者思维,不择时,回撤也不会有特别大的回撤,被动按照持仓比例进行调 仓,我觉得最好不要把现金池子完全归入这个组合,不然工资和其他收入其实是一直在加仓 其他三类资产的。 imaocxh 30%大A+20%港股+20%美股+20%商品+10%现 ...
24日投资提示:中天火箭股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-09-23 14:14
Group 1 - The article discusses various convertible bonds, including strong redemption announcements and adjustments in terms of bond conditions [2][5] - Specific convertible bonds such as Jingxing Convertible Bond and Chunqiu Convertible Bond are subject to strong redemption, while Gongtong Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [5] - The article lists the current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values of several convertible bonds, indicating their market performance and potential investment opportunities [4][7] Group 2 - Shareholders of Zhongtian Rocket plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares, while Shennma Co. intends to repurchase shares worth 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] - The article highlights the upcoming subscription for Jin 25 Convertible Bond on September 26 [5] - It provides a detailed table of various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, and market capitalization ratios, which can be useful for investors assessing their options [4][7]
快坚持不下去了,指数天天涨,净值天天跌
集思录· 2025-09-22 15:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment strategies and market conditions, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in different market environments, particularly highlighting the role of leverage and the shift in investor behavior. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Different market conditions require different investment strategies, with a multi-strategy approach yielding positive results, including a growth stock strategy with over 250% returns and a "shearing sheep" strategy (new shares + government bonds) with over 30% returns [2] - The use of options with a small amount of capital can achieve results comparable to larger investments in ETFs, suggesting a tactical approach to maintaining offensive positions [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized as a "water buffalo" driven by leveraged funds, with significant increases in margin financing since October 2022, indicating a reliance on speculative trading in small-cap stocks due to a lack of economic improvement [2] - The influx of retail investors has not kept pace with the rising stock indices, reflecting a shift in market dynamics where traditional methods of profit-taking are becoming more challenging [5] Group 3: Sector Performance - The article highlights the declining performance of certain sectors, such as the white liquor industry, which saw a production decrease of 9% year-on-year from January to August 2025, with an 18.2% drop in August alone [10] - The real estate sector is also discussed, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and expectations, leading to a decline in defensive positions for certain stocks [12] Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The importance of long-term investment is emphasized, with a caution against becoming overly attached to specific stocks, as market conditions can change rapidly [8] - The article suggests that passive index investing may be a more reliable strategy for ordinary investors, given the volatility and unpredictability of individual stocks [8]
23日投资提示:蒙泰高新股东拟转让3.99%股份
集思录· 2025-09-22 15:01
Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming IPOs and their details, including the issuance price and market capitalization [1] - It highlights the strategic partnership between Lepu Medical and Hanhai Information Technology, focusing on market promotion and operations in the medical aesthetics sector [1] - The article mentions the collaboration between Tianci Materials and Ruipu Lanjun, indicating a potential growth opportunity [1] Group 2 - The article provides information on convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, and last trading dates [3][6] - It lists various convertible bonds with their respective market values and conversion ratios, indicating the financial health and market positioning of the companies involved [3][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring convertible bond performance as part of investment strategies [6]
8月存款161万亿,居然不为大A所动?
集思录· 2025-09-21 14:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that the increase in non-bank deposits in August (1.18 trillion) compared to July (2.14 trillion) indicates a slowdown in the flow of resident deposits into the stock market, implying that A-shares still have potential for growth [1] - The article highlights that the current market sentiment is cautious, with many individuals in debt and a significant portion of wealth concentrated among the asset-holding class, which may lead to a lack of confidence in the stock market [2][3] - It is noted that the majority of small investors have only earned around 10-30% this year, indicating a general lack of strong market momentum [5] Group 2 - The article discusses the contrasting behaviors of depositors in different economic environments, suggesting that in times of economic uncertainty, individuals tend to save more rather than invest, as seen in Japan and Europe with their low or negative interest rates [10] - There is a mention of the structural issues within the market, where the reputation of the A-share market is perceived negatively, leading to a long recovery period for investor trust [2] - The commentary reflects a belief that the current market is more of a structural bull market rather than a broad-based one, with many investors still facing losses despite the overall market movements [7]
9月22日投资提示:正川转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-09-21 14:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses recent developments in convertible bonds, including proposals for adjustments and shareholder actions [1][2][4][6] - Zhengchuan Convertible Bond has proposed a downward adjustment [1][2] - Outoong Convertible Bond will not be forcibly redeemed [1][2] - Haibo Heavy Industry plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% of repurchased shares [1] - Guanzhong Ecology is planning a change in control and has suspended trading [1] - Ruifeng High Materials' shareholders intend to reduce their holdings by no more than 0.96% [1] Group 2 - A table lists various convertible bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] - For example, the current price of Jiaojian Convertible Bond is 162.161, with a redemption price of 100.044, and a conversion value of 162.90 [4] - The remaining scale of Jinxian Convertible Bond is 0.145 billion, with a market value ratio of 0.39% [4] - The current price of Dongjie Convertible Bond is 261.820, with a conversion value of 265.84 and a remaining scale of 0.731 billion [4]
该放弃银行股,去追科技股吗?
集思录· 2025-09-19 13:05
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of technology stocks and bank stocks, highlighting that technology stocks have been rising while bank stocks have been declining, leading to losses for bank stock holders [1] - There is speculation about whether bank stocks have entered a technical bear market, with suggestions to sell bank stocks and invest in sectors like semiconductors, PCB, chips, and artificial intelligence [1] - The article mentions that institutional investors are unable to exit the technology sector, which may lead to pressure on bank stocks as funds shift towards technology investments [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of high technology for a country to become a global leader, arguing that reliance on traditional sectors like banking and infrastructure is insufficient [4] - It points out that the current bull market in technology stocks is structurally driven by the need for countries to compete in high-tech fields, especially in the context of US-China competition [4] - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of low-profit technology companies, particularly those that do not generate free cash flow, suggesting that they may not be able to maintain their valuations in the long term [5] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between the current situation of bank stocks and the past performance of sectors like healthcare, consumer goods, and liquor, questioning whether bank stocks will follow a similar downward trend [6] - It highlights the disappointing long-term returns of bank stocks, using Beijing Bank as an example, which has only seen a 26% increase over 15 years, suggesting that investing in bank stocks may not be as rewarding as other investment options [7] - There is a mention of bank-related funds shifting to popular sectors mid-year, with expectations that they will return to bank stocks by year-end, indicating a cyclical investment strategy [8]