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投资客买入一二线老破小收租金有坑吗?
集思录· 2025-12-19 08:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and risks associated with investing in older, low-cost rental properties in the context of the rising availability of new public rental housing in Shanghai, which is significantly impacting the rental market and investor sentiment [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant number of public rental housing units, approximately 600,000, are being introduced by state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, which is creating intense competition for older rental properties [2][6]. - Young renters prefer new, well-maintained rental properties with amenities, leading to a decline in demand for older, dilapidated units [2][6]. - The rental yield from older properties is expected to decrease as new public rental options offer better living conditions and financial incentives, such as the ability to use housing funds to offset rent [2][6]. Group 2: Investment Risks - The potential for a progressive property tax could further complicate the investment landscape for older rental properties [2]. - The expectation of property redevelopment or demolition is becoming less reliable, as government initiatives focus on renovating existing neighborhoods rather than large-scale demolitions [4]. - Investors are cautioned against relying on speculative gains from property appreciation without concrete information regarding redevelopment plans [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are drawn to the idea of rental income but may not fully understand the complexities of the market, leading to misguided expectations [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of clarity in investment goals, whether for capital appreciation or cash flow, to avoid confusion and poor decision-making [4]. - The sentiment among investors reflects a tendency to overlook the risks associated with older properties, especially in light of the changing rental landscape [3][7].
价值投资是万万不可行的?
集思录· 2025-12-18 14:15
所以投资最重要的事,是发挥自己的长处,只做自己能懂的事。千万不要干,自己搞不懂, 还偏要不懂装懂的去干。认真对待自己,搞清自己那些不懂,实际上是投资的第一步,跨不 过这一步,后面的也别想走。实际上90%的人,第一步都跨不过去,因为很简单,许多人喜 欢糊涂过一生。 yup77 要搞懂赚谁的钱的问题。二级市场追涨杀跌其实是股民互相伤害模式,而低估买入持股收息 才是正确打开模式。当然不否认有些人追涨杀跌非常成功,但是价值投资更适合大部分人。 价值投资是一种信仰,是一项艺术,是一门科学。 以我近30年的投资经验,化作36字,与集友共享 选股思路:低估值高分红,少圈钱多回购,有增长不套现(的公司) 操作思路:分散投长期持,暴跌买大涨卖,好心态乐知足 为什么这么说?是由于我最近看了大道的访谈有关,以前我一直不太关注价值投资,因为我 搞不懂。最近慕名看了大道的访谈,我明白了我为什么搞不懂价值投资。因为价值投资实际 上是极难的,难到什么程度?大道作为名符其实的杰出企业家,能够搞懂的企业也寥寥无 几。我作为一个毫无企业经营经验的人,凭什么能够搞懂企业的未来? 宿不移 0分。 标题里加上几个字: 我做 价值投资是万万不可行的 大 ...
19日投资提示:裕兴转债提议下修
集思录· 2025-12-18 14:15
Group 1 - Shandong Zhanggu received an administrative regulatory measure decision from the Shandong Securities Regulatory Bureau due to issues related to related party transactions and information disclosure violations [1] - New stocks such as Shuangxin Environmental Protection, Yufan Technology, and Qiangyi Co., Ltd. are available for subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REIT (180306) has been listed [1] Group 2 - Convertible bonds data includes various bonds with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [3][5] - For example, the Yu Guang Convertible Bond (110096) has a current price of 181.919, a redemption price of 100.106, and a conversion value of 182.69, with a remaining scale of 0.018 billion [3] - The Jian Gong Convertible Bond (110064) has a current price of 112.870, a redemption price of 113.000, and a conversion value of 88.94, with a remaining scale of 12.619 billion [5]
成都房价已经下跌40%了?
集思录· 2025-12-17 14:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in real estate prices in Chengdu's Tianfu New Area, with an average drop of around 40% from peak levels, indicating a correction of inflated prices rather than a return to pre-2017 levels [1][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average price in Tianfu New Area rose from approximately 5,000 in 2015 to 25,000 in 2021, before dropping to around 17,000, reflecting a return to 2018 levels [1]. - Some properties in Chengdu have seen declines exceeding 50% from their peak values, particularly in the Tianfu New Area, which was heavily speculated [5]. - Older properties in central Chengdu have experienced smaller declines compared to newer developments in the suburbs, which have seen larger drops [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - There is a general sentiment that the investment logic in the real estate market has become confused, with newer properties sometimes priced significantly higher than older ones, complicating investment decisions [6]. - The overall decline in property prices in Chengdu is viewed as part of a broader trend seen across many cities in China, with average declines around 40% from peak levels [9][11]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions are similar to the stock market, where confusion and lack of confidence have led to cautious investment behavior [7].
18日投资提示:盛泰集团股东雅戈尔服装拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-12-17 14:08
Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the reduction of shareholding by the shareholder of Shengtai Group, Yagor Clothing, which plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3% [1] - Tian Neng Convertible Bond is undergoing a downward adjustment, but it is not at the bottom [1] - Lianchuang Electronics' controlling shareholder is planning to transfer part of the company's equity, leading to a stock suspension [1] Group 2 - The announcement table lists various convertible bonds, indicating that Mona Convertible Bond and Tian Chuang Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [2] - The table also shows that Tian Neng Convertible Bond is set for an adjustment announcement on December 17, 2025 [2] - The last trading day for Dongfeng Convertible Bond is noted, with a final trading date of December 18, 2025 [1][2] Group 3 - A detailed table provides information on various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading days, and conversion values [4][6] - For instance, the current price of Wei 24 Convertible Bond is 123.176, with a redemption price of 100.290 and a last trading day on December 12, 2025 [4] - The table also indicates that the remaining scale of the bonds varies, with some having a significant proportion of the market capitalization [4][6]
股民画像?
集思录· 2025-12-16 13:57
如果你发现身边有人工资挺高,但是衣服很便宜,鞋子很便宜,吃的很便宜,不 旅游,不逛街,没有不良嗜好。不用想他绝壁炒股 ! 是真的吗? 集思小子 买个5千块的手机功课攻略一大堆,横向对比、竖向测评…… 买个5万块的股票秒买入,说是建个观察仓先买后看…… dingo49 生活中缝缝补补,股市中挥金如土 赵甲 炒股人对自己还是很大方的,吃了穿了总比输了好。 xf8848 "生活中缝缝补补":体现在他廉价的纯棉T恤、脚上磨损的拖鞋、以及一只破了小洞的袜子。桌上的晚餐是一碗泡面和一杯清茶,直 接呼应了"吃的很便宜"。 "股市中挥金如土":与他朴素的穿着形成鲜明对比的是面前豪华的多屏炒股电脑。屏幕上闪烁着红绿绿的K线图、分时图和交易窗 口,象征着在资本市场上的大手笔投入。 1. 环境细节与符号化物品: 墙上的日历:圈出了"新股申购"、"除权除息日"等重要日期,显示了主人公对投资日程的密切关注。 书架:上面摆放着《证券分析》《价值投资》等书籍,表明他并非盲目投机,而是在进行"价值投资"。 画作名称:《绝壁炒股》 画作解析 这幅画融合了原帖讨论中的所有核心元素,通过视觉对比和细节刻画,生动地描绘出帖中所说的"股民画像"。 1 ...
17日投资提示:嘉美包装变更为逐越鸿智,17日复牌
集思录· 2025-12-16 13:57
Group 1 - The article discusses the valuation of silver and highlights the importance of understanding fund holdings, indicating that there may have been missed investment opportunities worth billions [2][3] - It mentions the acquisition of a controlling stake in Jiamei Packaging by Zhuyue Hongzhi for approximately 2.282 billion yuan, with plans to acquire 25% of the company’s shares through a combination of agreement transfer and partial tender offer [3] - The article provides details on various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values, indicating a focus on the performance and market dynamics of these financial instruments [6][8] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for better classification of investment products, suggesting that categorizing gold, silver, and other commodities under A-share commodity funds may be more appropriate [3] - It lists several convertible bonds that are not subject to price adjustments, indicating stability in their pricing and potential investment attractiveness [3][6] - The article also includes a brief overview of the Jiamei Packaging acquisition, noting the significant shareholding commitments from major shareholders, which could impact the company's future governance and strategic direction [3]
16日投资提示:蓝帆转债下修不到底
集思录· 2025-12-15 13:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent announcements regarding convertible bonds, highlighting adjustments and redemption statuses for various bonds, which may impact investment strategies in the convertible bond market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Announcements - 蓝帆转债 (Blue Fan Convertible Bond) has announced a downward adjustment of less than 0.5 yuan [1][3]. - 华医转债 (Hua Yi Convertible Bond) will not be forcibly redeemed [1][3]. - 巨星转债 (Giant Star Convertible Bond) will not undergo any downward adjustment [2][3]. Group 2: Key Data on Convertible Bonds - 中能转债 (Zhong Neng Convertible Bond) has a current price of 168.200 yuan, with a strong redemption price of 100.010 yuan, and a remaining scale of 0.025 billion yuan [5]. - 立中转债 (Li Zhong Convertible Bond) is priced at 118.260 yuan, with a strong redemption price of 100.390 yuan, and a remaining scale of 0.205 billion yuan [5]. - Z豫光转 (Z Yu Guang Convertible Bond) is currently at 181.919 yuan, with a strong redemption price of 100.106 yuan, and a remaining scale of 0.208 billion yuan [5]. - 中旗转债 (Zhong Qi Convertible Bond) has a current price of 303.000 yuan, with a strong redemption price of 100.805 yuan, and a remaining scale of 0.527 billion yuan [5]. - 楚天转债 (Chu Tian Convertible Bond) is priced at 112.797 yuan, with a strong redemption price of 100.450 yuan, and a remaining scale of 1.671 billion yuan [5].
美国长久期国债收益率为何居高不下
集思录· 2025-12-15 13:57
1.节衣缩食慢慢减少国债规模,会带来大萧条,且政客选票制度不允许 我查了下2020年,才0.6%年化,为啥现在4.18%降不下来呢,美国都降息4次了, 请指教! 2. 长期大幅通货膨胀减少实际国债价值 西楼 3. 政府总破产,耍赖不归还国债了 现在美国连支付国债利息都要再发国债支付,连本带利总金额已经突破38万亿美元了,将来 只有三条路可选: 韦168 美国多次降息只有短期国债利息下降,长期和超长期国债收益率并没有下降。也就是资金认 为长期美国还会通胀,长期国债无法低利率发行。换种说法就是:降低利率长期国债卖不出 去。如果美联储强行买入长债企图压低长期利率,结果市场美元会变得更多,助推通胀.... nirvana1982 我买了近40%仓位美债,国内美债QDII收益也就1.2%,跟火鸡差不多,搞不清楚发生啥了, 但反正跟国内债基也差不多,也没啥懊悔的 猫消灭人类 我认为和汇率有关系,国债收益率上升,是看空本币汇率。 长期国债的最大风险,是汇率。 量化投资先锋 美国国债问题源于美国联邦政府的收入长期低于支出,产生大量赤字,被迫借债。 2024年,美国联邦政府的财政收入总金额为4.918万亿美元,财政支出总金额为 ...
日本股市没想到过去10年回报还行
集思录· 2025-12-14 14:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Japanese stock market and its relationship with the country's economic growth, highlighting the disparity between stock market returns and GDP growth rates [2][3]. Group 1: Japanese Stock Market Performance - The annualized return of the Japanese stock market over the past 10 years is approximately 7.8% [2]. - Major companies mentioned include Toyota with a market cap of over 2 trillion RMB and a PE ratio of 8.67, Fast Retailing with a market cap of 800 billion RMB and a PE of 39, and others like SoftBank, Mitsubishi, Sony, Hitachi, and Nintendo [2]. - The article notes that the performance of the stock market may not directly correlate with domestic economic growth, as many large companies operate internationally [6][11]. Group 2: Economic Growth Data - Japan's GDP growth rates from 2020 to 2023 show fluctuations: -4.3% in 2020, +2.1% in 2021, +1.0% in 2022, and +1.9% in 2023 [2]. - IMF forecasts for 2024 and 2025 predict GDP growth rates of 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, citing factors like insufficient domestic demand and an aging population [2][4]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - Japan's share of the global GDP has significantly decreased from 17.7% in 1995 to an estimated 3.6% in 2024, indicating a substantial decline in its economic influence [3][4]. - The article suggests that the stock market's performance may not be a reliable indicator of the overall economy, as evidenced by the contrasting trends in GDP and stock market returns [3][10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article mentions that the Bank of Japan has been actively buying Japanese stocks for over 15 years, contributing to market liquidity [12]. - Notable investors like Warren Buffett have shown interest in Japanese companies, focusing on valuation, fundamentals, and shareholder return mechanisms [7].