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虽然不喝酒,但能理解茅台?
集思录· 2026-02-08 13:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment value of Moutai, suggesting that it may be viewed as a stable asset akin to bonds, despite the challenges facing the liquor industry in China [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The article highlights the alcohol consumption barrier, noting that once individuals surpass this barrier, they can appreciate the quality of liquor, particularly Moutai [2]. - It mentions the current state of the liquor industry, indicating a decline in per capita liquor consumption in China from a peak of 9.5 liters in 2016 to an expected 2.5 liters by 2025, driven by changing consumer preferences and government regulations [3]. - The article points out that high-end liquor prices are falling, with Moutai's price dropping from 3000 to 1499, and other brands like Wuliangye also experiencing price declines, while lower-end liquor prices remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article suggests that the current stock prices of liquor companies are unlikely to have hit bottom due to the ongoing challenges in the industry, including excess production capacity and declining sales [3]. - It emphasizes that while the social aspect of liquor consumption remains, the industry is in a "prisoner's dilemma" of falling prices and volumes, indicating a need for market correction before a rebound can occur [3]. - The article notes that Moutai's recent price increase is attributed to expectations of strong quarterly reports, but cautions that this growth may not be sustainable without improvements in average social consumption capacity [4]. Group 3: Perception and Value - The article discusses the cultural significance of Moutai, stating that it is perceived as a symbol of status and respect in social settings, which contributes to its enduring value despite market fluctuations [5][13]. - It mentions that Moutai is recognized as the best liquor in China, a perception that is deeply ingrained in the public consciousness, making it a valuable investment regardless of individual consumption habits [6][13]. - The article concludes that Moutai's price reflects broader economic trends, such as the rise in national confidence and wealth, similar to historical trends observed in the U.S. [12].
9日投资提示:康泰生物终止与阿斯利康合资设立疫苗企业
集思录· 2026-02-08 13:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the recent developments in convertible bonds and the termination of a joint venture in the vaccine sector by Kangtai Biological [1][2][4][6] Group 2 - Kangtai Biological has terminated its joint venture with AstraZeneca to establish a vaccine company, indicating a strategic shift in its business operations [1] - Hongchuan Convertible Bond has announced a downward adjustment, while other bonds such as Feng 21, Mengsheng, and Rong 23 have been subject to strong redemption [1][2] - Daimei Convertible Bond will not undergo strong redemption, and Jianlong Convertible Bond will not be adjusted downwards [1][2] - New stock subscription for Tongbao Optoelectronics is available on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The article provides detailed information on various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, and remaining scales, highlighting the market dynamics [4][6]
中国最适合旅居的城市是哪里?
集思录· 2026-02-06 13:41
平时都在大城市工作,想问问有没有那种适合节假日或者寒暑假带着一家老小去住一阵的地 方,需要在国内。 这个地方最好属于那种可以一有时间就可以去,不会很快觉得腻的城市。 另外气候条件很重要,北方城市冬天太冷,几乎不想出门活动。 最后就是交通,从北京过去比较方便。 希望大家可以推荐自己心目中那个理想的城市,谢谢。 资水 这几年在全国地级市打卡,我大概有些发言权。 总的结论是, 1、长期在任何一个城市都会呆腻的;2、每个省都有好地方。 推荐: 福建:泉州(历史名城,传统保持得好),厦门(小资) 广西:桂林阳朔(山水),百色(天坑、长寿村、鹅泉、德天瀑布),南宁(秋冬我觉得特 别宜居) 云南:弥勒(湖泉、温泉)、建水(古城)、大理(古城)、丽江、香格里拉、德钦(梅 里、雨崩)、腾冲(温泉、玉器)、版纳(避寒),云南好地方太多了,每个城市都有特 色。 四川:城市一般般,但自驾和户外是天堂级别的。大熊猫基地、九寨沟黄龙、乐山大佛、亚 丁三圣山、贡嘎、四姑娘、若尔盖、塔公、雪宝顶、三奥。。。太多了 广东:韶关(丹霞山)、潮汕(吃) 江苏:南京、淮安(历史名城)、苏州(园林、金鸡湖、东山西山),无锡扬州也都很好 浙江:杭州、衢 ...
本周热点:炒股的人都在做着成为百万千万富翁的美梦
集思录· 2026-02-06 13:41
论中金公司的投资机会 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/518192 快捷查询: 炒股的人几乎每人都在做着发财成为百万千万富翁的美梦 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/518245 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 嘉元在送钱了 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/518361 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议,仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损,本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区,专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下,使资产获得稳健增长。 ...
长江电力适合拿着吃席吗?
集思录· 2026-02-05 14:50
看有些v比较重仓位买入 我就比较呆板,目前股息率3点多并不高 电价他也没法定,那未来有增长吗? 会不会承担更多社会责任? 老感觉和存款比应该更好,和茅台有点像,也许险资适合 个人投资者适合拿着吃席吗? winqueen 疫情之前有一套房出租,每月租金三千多,租给二房东了,结果二房东跑路了,就把这套房 卖了,拿到了两百多万,单独一个账号买了13万股长江电力,后面就分红就买,目前差不多 16万多股,后面还打算分红就买,这个账号就打算一直这样买下去了,我觉得比这套房出租 强多了。关键是省心。 路林 股市可能就没有一劳永逸的事情,之前很多人拿大秦、上机、宁沪也是一样类似的想法(是 的,你猜的没错,那个人就是我自己),站在利空来之前的时点,想不出会有什么大利空, 但利空终究还是来了,长电未来也会一样,分散点,别在一棵树上吊死! quantech 长期持有 长江电力 的关键是,理解它为什么可以实现长期缓慢的利润增长,而不仅仅是 3.7%左右股息的债券。 此外,还取决于大家的信心。 ZT "基础设施和公用事业看上去是最重资产的行业,其实是世界上最轻资产的,100%都是 无形资产,因为其价值完全取决于当地法治对产权的保护和社 ...
6日投资提示:中环海陆股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2026-02-05 14:50
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent corporate actions regarding share repurchases and shareholder stake reductions, highlighting specific companies and their financial instruments. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Zhonghuan Hailu plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 3% [1] - Jiaze New Energy intends to repurchase shares worth between 220 million to 440 million [7] - Yitian Intelligent's controlling shareholder has terminated the agreement to transfer 5.99% of the company's shares [7] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - New Zhi Convertible Bond is subject to forced redemption [7] - Huicheng Convertible Bond, Yongji Convertible Bond, and Tairui Convertible Bond are not subject to forced redemption [7] - Juxing Convertible Bond and Yifeng Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [7] Group 3: Convertible Bond Market Data - Various convertible bonds are listed with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values, indicating market activity and investor interest [4][6]
有点恍惚了,现在到底是通胀还是通缩?
集思录· 2026-02-04 14:25
一边是黄金白银铜暴涨,几乎让人觉得美元即将变成废纸,恶性通胀立马就到。 一边是国内 房地产,菜粕,豆粕,生猪,螺纹这些大宗低位徘徊,又是一副通缩的样子。 难道真的是和 国际挂钩的商品通胀,只能国内流通的商品通缩? 就好比豪宅抢购,刚需房跌成狗无人问 津? 真是冰火两重天。 岁神 过往经验来看贵金属有色的上升传到到CPI会有半年到一年的滞后呈现螺旋上升的状态。现在 国内的通缩好比在病房挂水,下半年可能直接从病房拖到KTV通宵蹦迪。风浪越大鱼越贵今 年的市场波动率可能超出所有人的预期。 AC米蘭 这波牛市的主线就是"通胀平权":海外的通胀通过某种路径传导到国内。 金银铜:最直接的,可以把这些玩意直接带到外面卖,享受外面的通胀,所以价格 传导最直接; CPO/家电/外贸:通过将国内产品出口到外面卖,享受外面的通胀; 芯片牛市:国际产品受通胀/关税涨价,国产替代品同样可以享受涨价。 相反地,那些纯本地化的消费品就比较惨,比如白酒、面包、饭店、猪肉。这些玩意几乎纯 内需,无法享受比价通胀。 那个孩子 慢慢来,不要急,都会轮动到的。 市场流传的说法:大宗商品的涨价顺序通常遵循"金融属性→工业属性→能源消费属性→民生 刚需 ...
5日投资提示:江山欧派股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2026-02-04 14:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the status of various convertible bonds, highlighting which bonds are subject to strong redemption and which are not, along with details on shareholder reduction plans for specific companies [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Status - Shouhua Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption with a redemption price of 100.616 and a current price of 130.495 [2][4]. - Libai Convertible Bond and Huachen Convertible Bond are not subject to strong redemption [1][2]. - Other convertible bonds listed include Congsheng, Fumiao, and Jiamei, with their respective current prices and redemption details [4][6]. Group 2: Shareholder Reduction Plans - Jiangshan Oupai's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% [1]. - Jinpu Garden's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 2% [1].
4日投资提示:无锡振华实控人及股东拟减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2026-02-03 13:54
Group 1 - The article discusses the proposal for the adjustment of the conversion price for Honglu Convertible Bonds [1] - Wuxi Zhenhua's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3% [1] - Fuhuanwei's controlling shareholder's concerted action party intends to reduce its stake by 1.93% [1] - Jingce Electronics' shareholders plan to collectively reduce their stake by no more than 2.08% [1] - Yitian Intelligent's shareholders plan to reduce their stake by no more than 0.99% [6] Group 2 - The table lists various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [2][4][6] - Notable convertible bonds include Songsheng Convertible Bonds with a current price of 156.110 and a conversion value of 157.82 [4] - Huazheng Convertible Bonds have a current price of 166.209 and a conversion value of 167.72 [4] - The article mentions that Yanjia Convertible Bonds will not be forcibly redeemed and Huitian Convertible Bonds will not be adjusted [6]
周二晚劝朋友不要做空白银,现在很内疚
集思录· 2026-02-03 13:54
朋友在钢铁行业工作,长期做期货,有一个产业界的圈子。 周二晚给我打电话,说白银和铜价已经背离产业基础太远了,必定崩溃,他打算要做空。 我就是很坚定的说,逆势做空风险非常大,会崩溃,但你不一定能坚持到崩的时候,还是不 要冒险 。 他建议我也做做期货,和股票平滑收益, 我也说这个风险大,做不来。 这两天白银果然大跌, 也不知道朋友有没有真的去做空, 但是心理很内疚和忐忑,不知道是 不是耽误朋友赚钱。 也不好去问朋友。 以后再也不去自以为是的劝诫别人了。 科立瓦兰多 朋友问我,我一般回:说的有道理,可以尝试,不过要注意风险,仓位别太重,杠杆低一点, 钱是赚不完的,但有可能亏完。 给满认可和情绪价值。 这样他亏钱时,会请我吃烧烤,感谢我提醒他注意风险。 这样他赚钱时。。。 eaglex 投资不要聊具体操作 可以聊思路 聊观念 聊到底赚什么钱 听了你的建议赚了 对方会认为是自己的功劳 毕竟最后自己拿的主意 听了你的建议亏了 对方会认为是你的问题 没听你的建议赚了 对方觉得你也不过如此 纸上谈兵而已 没听你的建议亏了 对方觉得你太坏了 故意看笑话 知道会亏也不拦着自己些 逆势者 最惨的是你朋友没听你的话2万8空了,周四晚 ...