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29日投资提示:最后三个交易日了
集思录· 2025-12-28 13:54
再22转债:强赎 韵达转债:不下修 天准转债,鼎捷转债:12月31日上市 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 类型 | 日期 | 公告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 127085 | 韵达转债 | 不下修 | 2025-12-27 | 公告 | | 113657 | 再22转债 | 强陵 | 2025-12-27 | 公告 | | 113667 | 春23转债 | 不强赎 | 2025-12-27 | 公告 | | 127092 | 运机转债 | 不强赎 | 2025-12-27 | 公告 | | 123259 | 锦浪转02 | 公告下修 | 2025-12-26 | 公告 | | 123236 | 家联转债 | 不强赎 | 2025-12-26 | 公告 | 一转眼2025年就要过去了,只剩下周三个交易日了 感觉既满足,又迷茫 天创时尚:公司控股股东拟变更为安徽先睿,股票复牌 京源环保:信披违规及募资使用不规范,收到江苏证监局警示函 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 现价 | 强赎价 | 最后交易日 | 最后转股日 | 转股价值 | ...
本周热点:伟大的博傻
集思录· 2025-12-26 14:05
原来我看过一本书叫《伟大的博弈》,下面是从AI抄的简要介绍 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议,仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损,本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 为什么普通人不愿意做慈善家呢 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/516335 顺势而为,越涨越追,多品种共进——e老实和尚2025年投资年度总结 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/516225 凡是中国取得世界级竞争力的产业,为什么在A股都不给估值? https://www.jisilu.cn/question/516244 国投白银LOF跌停板挂单了 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/516325 关注集思录微信 《伟大的博弈》是一部由约翰·S·戈登撰写的金融历史著作,副标题为"华尔街金融 帝国的崛起(1653-2019)"。该书以生动翔实的笔触,梳理了美国资本市场(以 华尔街为核心)超过350年的发展历程。 本书并非单纯讲述股市涨跌或财富故事,而是深入探讨 "资本市场与美国经济崛起 之间的共生关系" 。它揭示了一个核心悖论:华尔街在混乱、投机与危 ...
老司机的2025年度总结:收益率43%
集思录· 2025-12-26 14:05
Core Insights - The article reflects on the investment journey of the year, highlighting a strategic focus on convertible bonds and commodity futures, which yielded significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The initial investment strategy was conservative, focusing on high-priced low-premium convertible bonds and commodity futures, leading to over 50% returns early in the year [1]. - The strategy evolved to include a shift to low-priced convertible bonds as the market premium rates increased, ensuring steady gains without losses [1]. - The article emphasizes a flexible approach to trading, adjusting positions based on market movements, particularly in response to significant index fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The overall annual return was reported at 43%, with a more aggressive small account yielding 81.87% [2]. - The profit distribution across different investment categories was as follows: convertible bonds 51.55%, index options 26.69%, stocks 4.24%, commodity futures 15.12%, and QFII 1.68% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 anticipates a slow bull market with potential for short-term volatility, suggesting a balanced portfolio of 50% index futures, 50% convertible bonds, and 30% commodity futures [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting strategies based on market conditions, including decisive actions on stop-loss triggers and opportunities for additional investments [4].
26日投资提示:博实股份股东拟减持不超过2.93%股份
集思录· 2025-12-25 14:28
Group 1 - The article expresses a pessimistic view on silver LOF due to excessive arbitrage positions and consecutive trading halts, leading to a decline in buying interest and a drop to net asset value levels [1] - BoShi Co., Ltd. plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 2.93% [1] - Jinpu Garden plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 0.8% [1] - ShenYu Convertible Bond is set to be listed on December 30 [1] - Xiangyuan Convertible Bond is approaching its last trading day [1] - Shuangle Convertible Bond is currently open for subscription [1] - Hong Kong stock market is on holiday [1] Group 2 - The table lists various convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [2][4][6] - Notable convertible bonds include XinHua Convertible Bond with a current price of 127.178 and a last trading date of December 22, 2025 [4] - KaiRun Convertible Bond has a current price of 114.936 and a last trading date of December 22, 2025 [6] - The article mentions specific bonds like BenGang Convertible Bond with an announcement of down adjustment and Hengshuai Convertible Bond which will not be forcibly redeemed [8]
一家优秀且极端低估的公司?
集思录· 2025-12-25 14:28
看到有个v说 在我眼里,a股千亿市值以上公司,仅剩一个优秀且极端的低估。也就不在意他未 来一年,可能部分业务未来一年可能出现略有下滑,大概公司整体还是增长的。常 年经营现金流大于净利润+折旧摊销的,常年ROE大于20%,以及本年接近100% 的股东回报,账上几千亿现金,公司治理优秀。。无一不让人流口水。很久没说那 一句,涨跌随意 这v我也不知道准不准,但是很好奇 我就查了一下 千亿以上公司有173家 再要求ROE大于20,就只剩下34家 然后按照股利支付率排序 | ○查找 | | | | | | | ▼ 点击查看4列数据洞察结果 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 证券名称 | > | 总市值 | [交易日期]2025-11 ... | 净资产收益率ROE [报告期]去年年报 | 年度股利支付率 年度 2024 | 货币资金 [报告期]去年年报 | | 序号 | 证券代码 | | | 单位亿元 | | [单位]% [单位]% | | [报告类型]合并报表 | | | | | | | | | | [单位]亿元 | | ...
自由现金流+红利低波躺平
集思录· 2025-12-24 14:30
Group 1 - The article discusses the complementary nature of free cash flow and low-volatility dividend strategies, suggesting a 1:1 allocation between the two for a balanced investment approach [1] - It highlights the potential for a "lazy" investment strategy by regularly rebalancing a portfolio consisting of ETFs focused on free cash flow and low-volatility dividends, along with the Nasdaq index [1] - The article mentions the importance of cash flow generation from investments, emphasizing that a combination of free cash flow and low-volatility dividends can provide a steady income stream [7] Group 2 - There is a debate on the effectiveness of rebalancing strategies, with some arguing that they may expose investors to extreme risks, as illustrated by a hypothetical scenario involving the Soviet Union's market [6][8] - The article suggests that a simple allocation strategy without frequent rebalancing may be more beneficial, allowing investors to avoid potential pitfalls associated with market volatility [6] - It also raises concerns about the complexity introduced by adding more asset classes, which could dilute the cash flow benefits of a simpler investment strategy [7][10]
25日投资提示:集思录大军先头部队已遭全歼。。。
集思录· 2025-12-24 14:30
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of subscribing to LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) as a daily priority for investors, highlighting the need for thorough checks on fund codes, names, and amounts before submission [1] - It compares the subscription process to safety protocols in the aviation industry, underscoring the necessity of ensuring all steps are completed correctly [1] - Several companies are mentioned regarding shareholding changes, including Sait New Materials and Zhuhai Guanyu, both planning to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [1] Group 2 - The article lists various convertible bonds, including the 瑞达转债 (Ruida Convertible Bond) which is subject to strong redemption, and 美诺转债 (Meinuo Convertible Bond) and 科顺转债 (Keshun Convertible Bond) which will not undergo adjustments [3][5] - Specific details about the current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values of several convertible bonds are provided, indicating their market status and potential investment opportunities [5][7] - The article also notes the trading status of new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, such as 江天科技 (Jiangtian Technology), and mentions market closures for Hong Kong and US stocks [1]
为什么投资者要给企业那么多钱呢?
集思录· 2025-12-23 14:41
雪球上有个帖子,英伟达在股市里一共融资多少? 英伟达通过股市的直接融资(IPO + Post-IPO轮次)约为5,800万美元(IPO)+ 2.25亿美元(Post-IPO)= 3.03亿美元(约 3.03亿 USD)。其中,5800万美元是1999年IPO募集的,2020年8月,通过PIPE(私募股 权投资)募集约2.2亿美元。 英伟达募集了20多亿人民币,就干成这样的企业(当然,也有 很多公司拿了钱干砸了)。看看A股这些公司, 德勤预计,截至2025年12月31日,A股市场 将有114家公司上市,合计融资1296亿元,相对2024年100家公司上市融资668亿元。 资水 IPO的超募和IPO后的爆拉,是一个深刻到A股本质的问题,是制度的精心设计的结果。 先看一个背景。中国一级市场基金14万亿元,二级市场基金10万亿元,一级居然比二级规模 还大!(美国一级:二级 = 6万亿:20万亿美元)。 一级市场这14万亿,主要是ZF基金、信托资 金、高净值人群资金。我们说的"中国的既得利益者"在哪里?就是在这14万亿一级市场资金 里。 一级市场资金的退出是要在二级市场才能实现的,平均是7倍溢价,即一级市场1个亿在二级 ...
24日投资提示:集思录大军将至
集思录· 2025-12-23 14:41
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the stock market, highlighting a friend's experience with investing in LOF (Listed Open-Ended Fund) and the unexpected continued rise in stock prices despite warnings of potential risks [1] - The author expresses surprise at the market's resilience, noting that despite repeated advice to sell, the stocks continued to rise, leading to a sense of confusion among investors [1] Group 2 - The article includes announcements regarding various convertible bonds, such as the 百畅转债 (Bai Chang Convertible Bond) which will not undergo adjustments and has a final trading date of December 26, 2025 [3][5] - It provides detailed information on several convertible bonds, including their current prices, redemption prices, final trading dates, and conversion values, indicating the financial metrics relevant to investors [7][9]
为啥中国的世界级企业估值都那么低?
集思录· 2025-12-22 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation challenges faced by various industries in the A-share market, highlighting that despite global competitiveness, many sectors are undervalued due to market dynamics and investor behavior [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Valuations - Home Appliances: Midea (13x), Haier (12.3x), Hisense (12.73x) [1] - Engineering Machinery: Sany (23.6x), XCMG (20x), Zoomlion (17x) [2] - Forklifts: Hangcha (16x), Heli (14x) [2] - Tires: Zhongce (12x), Sailun (16x), Senqilin (14x) [2] - Heavy Trucks: China National Heavy Duty Truck (12x) [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industries mentioned are characterized by low-frequency consumption and strong cyclicality, leading to fluctuating performance and valuations based on government subsidies and market conditions [1][2]. - The article suggests that a P/E ratio around 15x is reasonable for stable growth industries, providing a risk premium over ten-year government bonds [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - Institutional investors hold significant pricing power in these markets, making it challenging for individual investors to influence valuations [1][2]. - The article emphasizes that high expectations can lead to investment disasters, and that long-term returns may be better for established companies despite their low valuations [3][10]. Group 4: Valuation as an Incentive Mechanism - Valuation is described as an incentive mechanism that reflects market competition and societal evolution, where higher valuations encourage innovation and investment in growth sectors like technology [4][5][6]. - Conversely, traditional industries with stable earnings often receive lower valuations due to a lack of societal encouragement for new investments [7][10]. Group 5: Global Comparisons - The article notes that mature manufacturing companies globally, such as Toyota and Caterpillar, also exhibit low valuation multiples, indicating a broader trend beyond the A-share market [14][15][16].