Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beauty and personal care industry [2]. Core Insights - Traditional agency operators like Liren Lizhuang and Yiwang Yichuang are experiencing significant declines, with Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 being only 60% of its peak in 2020, and Yiwang Yichuang showing stagnation from 2020 to 2023 [8][19]. - The report identifies several factors contributing to the decline of traditional operators, including reliance on a single market segment, failure to adapt to new sales channels like Douyin, and the shift of brands from agency partnerships to in-house teams [8][19]. - Companies like Qingmu Technology and Ruoyuchen are showing high growth by adapting their business models and expanding into new markets [19][20]. Summary by Sections Traditional Agency Operators - Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 was only 60% of its 2020 peak, with a continued decline in net profit growth in Q1-Q3 of 2024 compared to 2023 [8]. - Yiwang Yichuang's performance has been stagnant from 2020 to 2023, with a noticeable drop in profits [8]. - Key reasons for the decline include a narrow focus on specific product categories, rapid changes in sales channels, and the inability to maintain brand partnerships as brands shift to self-managed teams [8][19]. New Business Models - Water Sheep Co. has transitioned from a traditional TP model to a CP model, focusing on sustainable partnerships with brands and offering comprehensive operational services [11]. - Qingmu Technology has embraced high-growth sectors, maintaining a stable revenue share from agency operations while expanding into new categories and leveraging technology for growth [16][19]. - Both companies are actively acquiring or incubating their own brands, with Water Sheep's acquisition of the luxury brand Ifidan showing promising results [20][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that traditional agency operators should seek transformation by diversifying product categories, exploring new sales channels, and collaborating with new brands to sustain growth [27]. - The shift from agency to brand ownership is highlighted as a strategic move for companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology, which have the operational resources and e-commerce expertise to support this transition [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - North American AI application companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the future demand for infrastructure is becoming clearer [4]. - The acceleration of AI applications by major internet companies is expected to lead to bulk orders for domestic training cards to meet high-speed inference needs [6]. - The development of AI terminals is promising, with advancements in AI glasses and smart driving technologies anticipated [7]. Summary by Sections Application Developments - Companies like AppLovin, Palantir, and Salesforce have shown significant progress in their respective fields, driving stock performance. AppLovin's stock rose by 630.46% from the beginning of 2024 to November 15, 2024, while Palantir's revenue reached $726 million, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a stock rise of 283.05% in the same period. Salesforce's new Agentforce platform has also contributed to a 24.16% stock increase [5]. Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The report highlights three catalysts for domestic computing power: 1. Overseas policies restricting advanced chip supplies to mainland China, increasing the urgency for domestic production. 2. Domestic policies supporting AI computing power, particularly in the context of self-controlled innovation. 3. The expected increase in domestic AI chip production as a response to these policies [5]. AI Terminal Innovations - The report notes advancements in AI glasses, with companies like Meta and Apple making significant moves in this space. Additionally, Tesla's upcoming FSD V13 is expected to enhance autonomous driving capabilities significantly [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in domestic computing power, AI glasses, smart driving, and AI smartphones, including HaiGuang Information, Huafeng Technology, and others [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in export tax rebate policies is expected to impact domestic aluminum exports significantly, with a potential reduction in price competitiveness for domestic products [6][5] - The policy change may lead to a narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices, with estimates suggesting a maximum adjustment of 1351 RMB per ton [7] - Despite short-term risks of price declines due to the policy changes, the report anticipates a gradual improvement in domestic demand, supporting a strong outlook for aluminum prices in the long term [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown varying performance, with a notable decline of 22% from November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024 [4] - The volume of aluminum products affected by the rebate cancellation has been significant, with totals of 540.37 million tons in 2021, 612.60 million tons in 2022, and 523.67 million tons in 2023 [5] Price Impact - As of November 17, 2024, domestic aluminum prices have shown a decline, with Shanghai aluminum at 20,460 RMB per ton, reflecting a 1.63% drop, while London aluminum prices increased by 5.56% to 2,656.5 USD per ton [6] - The report projects that if the current trade levels are to be maintained, the domestic price may need to adjust downward while international prices may rise, leading to a more balanced market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several companies for investment, including Ming Tai Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Lizhong Group, indicating a positive outlook for these firms despite short-term price risks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in chemical products and the development of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang as two main investment themes [1] - The supply-demand tightness combined with smooth pricing trends suggests that the price increase for propanol is likely to continue [5] - The report emphasizes that the leaf acid market is experiencing significant price increases, with expectations for this trend to exceed previous forecasts [6] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to benefit from substantial investments and policy support, positioning it as a key area for future growth [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that recent policies aimed at boosting the economy, particularly in real estate and consumption, are expected to enhance demand for chemical products [31] - It suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved supply-side conditions and increased global market share [31][32] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 3.6% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [36] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has declined by 1.9%, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [36] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 92 stocks rose while 332 fell during the week [43] - The top gainers included companies like Bofei Electric (+30.9%) and Jiaao Environmental Protection (+25.7%), while the largest decliners included companies like Bluefeng Biochemical (-25.9%) and Yanggu Huatai (-18.7%) [43] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report notes that 25 central enterprises are expected to invest approximately 939.57 billion yuan in Xinjiang's coal and chemical sectors by 2028 [4][8] - The price of propanol has increased by 13.7% week-on-week, indicating strong market demand [4] 5. Product Price and Price Difference Analysis - The report details significant price increases for various chemical products, with leaf acid prices rising by 22.2% [9] - It also highlights the price fluctuations of other chemicals, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [9] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical highlighted for potential recovery [10] - It also emphasizes the importance of supply constraints in certain chemical products, recommending companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Harmony for their pricing power [10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 11 月 17 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 2023/1…2023/1…2023/1… 商贸 零售 沪深 300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中国中免：盈利能力略有下降， 静待客单价复苏》，2024.11.13 2.《——商社周报 11.10-大选落地后 关税担忧升级，出口链影响几何？》， 2024.11.10 3.《——商贸社服周专题 1103-为何 达播主导今年双十一？》，2024.11.3 4.《——商社周报 1026-宠物三季报 总结：板块延续高景气，双十一开售 数据亮眼》，2024.10.26 5.《——商贸社服周报 1020-双十一 首周总结：胶原成分爆发，品牌表现 分化》，2024.10.20 双十一总结：美妆赛道国货领先， 宠食赛道高景气度 ——商贸社服周专题 1117 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：2024 年双十一结束，平台端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report highlights the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, which may impact market dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the price of alumina remains strong, with a recent increase in average domestic prices [5]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a decline of 22% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - Recent price movements indicate a downward trend in various metals, with copper and aluminum prices decreasing by 4.2% [5][57]. Key Data Points - As of November 15, 2024, the SHFE copper price is 73,860 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week, while LME copper is at 9,055 USD/ton, down 2.9% [57]. - The average price of domestic alumina is reported at 5,567 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.21% [5]. - The report indicates that the total capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is 45.01 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.76 million tons, resulting in a utilization rate of 97.45% [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining for gold and copper respectively [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for price recovery in industrial metals driven by policy support and economic expectations [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that national policies are strongly promoting the future of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, with significant investments expected to enhance energy security and support economic development in the region [4][6] - Xinjiang is projected to become a strategic resource base for the country, with coal production expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of local coal mining and conversion, suggesting that on-site transformation will become mainstream due to tightening approvals for new coal production capacities in other regions [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -34% to +26% compared to the CSI 300 index from November 2023 to July 2024 [3] Policy and Investment - A total of 183 projects have been signed with an expected investment of 939.57 billion yuan by 2028, focusing on coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy in Xinjiang [4][6] - Key projects include a 170 billion yuan coal-to-oil project and several coal chemical utilization projects, indicating a robust pipeline for coal chemical development in Xinjiang [6] Coal Production and Competitiveness - Xinjiang's coal resources are substantial, with an estimated 2.19 trillion tons of coal available, accounting for about 40% of the national total [5] - The report notes that Xinjiang's coal production has increased by 19.1% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, outpacing national growth [5] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal mining and chemical production in Xinjiang, including Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, and Hubei Yihua, as well as engineering and service firms supporting Xinjiang's development [7][8]

证券分析师 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 基础化工 | 叶酸价格大幅上涨，本轮行情有望超 | | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 预期 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，11 月 15 日，叶酸主流接单价上涨 5-15 元/公斤至 205-215 元 /公斤，部分高位报价上调至 220-230 元/公斤。本轮涨价之前市场主流接单价在 172-176 元/公斤左右，前期市场库存量较低，叶酸经销商市场报价大幅提升。 点评： 叶酸用途相对刚性，下游需求稳定增长。叶酸（又称维生素 B9）是生物健康所必 须的水溶性维生素，对包括细胞生长和发育、DNA 合成和红细胞生成等多种功能 至关重要，需求具备相对刚性。从需求结构来看，饲料行业是叶酸最大的下游应用 领域，占比约 43%，2019-2023 年，我国饲料产量从 2.17 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the intensifying competition in the technology sector between the US and China, particularly in high-tech areas such as semiconductors and AI, with potential implications for investment strategies [29]. - It notes that China's commercial space industry is catching up, with significant advancements in satellite launches and reduced costs expected in the near future [30]. - The report emphasizes the continuous breakthroughs in domestic supply chains and the establishment of overseas operations by major Chinese tech companies [31]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's re-election on US-China relations, particularly regarding technology sanctions and the focus on high-tech sectors like commercial space and AI [29]. - It mentions that SpaceX has launched 6,700 satellites, with over 4,700 currently operational, highlighting the US's lead in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [30]. - The report indicates that China's satellite internet construction is entering a phase of regular launches, with significant improvements in launch capabilities and cost reductions anticipated [30][31]. Industry News - The Long March 8 rocket has completed its transition exercises and is set for its first launch at the Hainan commercial launch site, which will enhance China's launch capabilities [33]. - China Satcom has introduced a satellite internet product aimed at the consumer market, significantly lowering the barrier for satellite communication access [34]. - The deployment of drone stations on communication towers in Anhui province has shown promising results, supporting the development of low-altitude economy infrastructure [35]. - The Zhuhai Airshow showcased various products supporting commercial space and low-altitude economy, indicating strong industry growth [38]. Weekly Review and Recommended Portfolio - The communication sector experienced a decline of 2.37% this week, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy sectors [39]. - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and low-altitude economy for potential investment opportunities [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of overall market value enhancement opportunities and the improvement of fundamentals in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The photovoltaic industry has experienced a significant increase in new installations, with a total of 160.88 GW added in the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.77% [3][15] - The report highlights the decline in prices across the photovoltaic supply chain, indicating a phase of bottoming out [6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Demand Review and Outlook - In the first nine months of 2024, domestic photovoltaic installations maintained growth, with 20.89 GW added in September alone, marking a 32.38% year-on-year increase [3][15] - The total new power generation capacity added in China during the same period was 242.58 GW, with photovoltaic installations accounting for 66.32% of this total [3][15] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Growth and Profit Decline - The report notes that the capacity across various segments of the photovoltaic supply chain continues to grow, with polysilicon production increasing by approximately 60.6% year-on-year [6] - Prices across the supply chain have been declining, with significant drops in polysilicon and solar cell prices, indicating a potential bottoming phase [6][7] 3. Valuation: PB at Bottom, High Margin of Safety - The report states that the photovoltaic sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently at 2.28, which is at the lower end of the historical range, suggesting a high margin of safety for investors [9] 4. Policy: Supply and Demand Efforts to Stabilize Fundamentals - The report discusses recent policy initiatives aimed at preventing "involution" and promoting healthy competition within the photovoltaic industry, which are expected to support the sector's recovery [9][10] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with relatively high earnings certainty, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Longi Green Energy, and Trina Solar, as well as companies in the inverter segment [10]