28 May 2025 | 4:05AM EDT Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Lower to Neutral After Recent Relative and Absolute Performance; Prefer Buy-Rated VLO, MPC, DINO | PARR | | --- | | 6m Price Target: $19.00 | | Price: $22.47 | | Downside: 15.4% | Following recent share outperformance, we are downgrading Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) from Buy to Neutral. While we remain constructive on the refining sector (supported by increased OPEC+ production and tightening refining supply/demand dynamics), we continue to be selective in ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Salesforce Inc. with a price target of $340.00, representing an upside of 22.7% from the current price of $277.19 [1][3][19]. Core Insights - Salesforce's acquisition of Informatica for $8 billion at a 30% premium is expected to enhance its capabilities in data management and governance, supporting a unified architecture for AI applications [1][2][15]. - The acquisition is projected to be the largest by revenue in Salesforce's history, with Informatica's revenue guidance for FY25 at $1.7 billion [2][3]. - Salesforce is positioned to capitalize on the digital transformation trend, with a total addressable market (TAM) of $284 billion for its product portfolio [15][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from $37.9 billion in FY25 to $50.3 billion in FY28, with EBITDA increasing from $15.98 billion to $19.93 billion over the same period [3][12]. - The report anticipates continued operating margin expansion, projecting a 35%+ operating margin and free cash flow per share of $17-18 in FY27 [14][15]. Market Positioning - Salesforce is viewed as a strategic player in the $1 trillion+ cloud industry, with a robust product portfolio that spans various aspects of digital transformation [15][16]. - The company is expected to improve its unit economics and expand its share of wallet within existing customer accounts, leveraging its large installed base [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that Salesforce trades at 17x EV/CY26 free cash flow, compared to an average of ~28x for its peers, indicating a compelling risk/reward profile [14][19]. - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 28.2 in FY25 to 18.4 in FY28, and an EV/EBITDA ratio decreasing from 16.8 to 11.5 over the same period [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for VNET Group, with a 12-month price target of US$13, indicating a potential upside of 115.2% from the current price of US$6.04 [13][15]. Core Insights - VNET Group reported strong 1Q25 results, with revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year to Rmb2,246 million, and adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year to Rmb682 million, both exceeding consensus estimates [1][3]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional retail IDC operator to a rapidly growing wholesale IDC operator, with expectations of significant revenue and EBITDA growth driven by increased AI investments [13]. - Wholesale IDC revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52% from 2024 to 2027, while EBITDA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% during the same period [13]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, wholesale IDC revenue surged by 86% year-over-year, accounting for 30% of total revenue, while retail IDC revenue grew by 5% year-over-year, marking its first positive growth since 4Q23 [1][3]. - The average monthly service revenue (MSR) increased by 7% year-over-year but decreased by 19% quarter-over-quarter to Rmb568k per MW per month [7]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, with a capex plan of Rmb10-12 billion [1]. Capacity and Orders - VNET secured 119MW of wholesale orders in 1Q25, including significant contracts with leading cloud computing customers [2]. - As of 1Q25, VNET had 573MW of wholesale capacity in service, with a commitment rate nearing 100% [11][4]. - The total capacity under construction decreased to 377MW, while the total capacity held for future development is 670MW [11]. Market Position and Outlook - VNET is positioned as a leading carrier-neutral data center operator in China, with approximately 74% of its 2024 revenue derived from IDCs [13]. - The report suggests that rising contributions from wholesale IDC revenue and EBITDA may lead to continued upward re-rating of multiples and valuation compounding for VNET [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for OBIC is Neutral, maintained due to a lack of valuation appeal despite stable growth prospects in ERP demand [1][9][30]. Core Insights - OBIC's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 have been raised to ¥87.0 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large ERP projects [1][2][19]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth, with the system support (SS) business projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [1][23]. - The target price has been increased to ¥5,230 from ¥4,770, based on a DCF model that reflects the company's high earnings stability [1][32]. Financial Estimates - Revenue forecasts for FY3/26 are set at ¥132.5 billion, with operating profits expected to reach ¥87.0 billion, slightly above the company's guidance of ¥86.2 billion [2][4]. - The operating margin is anticipated to improve, driven by growth in the high-margin SS business and greater efficiency in SG&A expenses [13][31]. - The company has a market capitalization of ¥2.3 trillion and an enterprise value of ¥2.1 trillion [4]. Business Segments - The system integration (SI) business is expected to see stable growth, with sales and operating profits rising by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [19][22]. - The SS business, which includes ERP maintenance, is projected to drive overall earnings, with sales and operating profits increasing by 13% and 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [23][24]. - The shift to cloud services is significant, with the proportion of customers using cloud services expected to rise to 91% by the end of FY3/26 [23][25]. Market Position - OBIC is focusing on large corporate clients, competing with major players like Oracle and SAP, and is gradually increasing its market share [22][31]. - The company has nearly 10 large projects underway, each with development costs exceeding ¥500 million, indicating high utilization rates [22][31]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 30% of OBIC's sales, with strong demand for ERP upgrades due to a high proportion of legacy systems [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) with a target price raised to HK$65 from HK$62, indicating a 26% upside potential [1][18]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with revenue growing by 47% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb111 billion, and adjusted net profit increasing by 65% yoy to Rmb10.7 billion [1]. - Key growth drivers included AIoT and electric vehicles (EV), with AIoT revenue growing by 59% yoy, significantly outperforming the market [2][34]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for AIoT reached a record high of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points yoy, making it the largest gross profit contributor for Xiaomi [3][58]. Financial Performance - Revenue from smart EVs showed a gross profit margin expansion to 23.2%, attributed to strong pricing power and lower bill of materials (BOM) costs [4]. - Smartphone revenue grew by 9% yoy to Rmb50.6 billion, with a market share increase in China to 19%, marking Xiaomi's first position in the market after 10 years [28]. - Internet services revenue increased by 13% yoy to Rmb9.1 billion, driven by a 20% growth in advertising revenue [67]. Segment Analysis - AIoT and lifestyle products contributed significantly to revenue, with smart large home appliances seeing a revenue growth of 114% yoy [42]. - Tablet shipments grew by 56% yoy, with Xiaomi achieving the No.3 market share globally and in China [47]. - Wearables revenue increased by 56.5% yoy, with Xiaomi maintaining a leading position in the global market [58]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in AIoT, projecting a 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for overseas revenue from 2024 to 2027 [61]. - Upcoming events to watch include the 6.18 shopping festival and a new product release event, which are expected to drive further consumer interest and sales [19].

Investment Ratings - Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $148 [27] - Fox Corp. (FOXA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $61 [29] - Comcast Corp. (CMCSA): Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $40 [30] - Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD): Neutral-rated with a 12-month price target of $10.50 [32] - Paramount Global (PARA): Not Rated [34] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in traditional TV viewership, with prime time commercial ratings for broadcast (excluding sports) down 16% year-over-year in 2Q25-to-date [2] - Streaming viewership has reached an all-time high of 44.3%, with YouTube achieving a record share of 12.4% [6][10] - Cable viewership has also seen a slight increase, driven by sports and news programming, with cable share rising to 24.5% [8][9] Summary by Sections TV Viewership Trends - Streaming's share of total TV viewership increased by 0.5 percentage points month-over-month to 44.3% in April 2025 [6][10] - Broadcast share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 20.8%, driven by events like the Men's NCAA Basketball Championship [7][9] - Cable share rose by 0.5 percentage points to 24.5%, supported by strong sports viewership [8][9] Company Performance - In 2Q25-to-date, total day ratings for major networks declined significantly: DIS (-28%), PARA (-30%), WBD (-27%), CMCSA (-32%), while FOX saw an increase of 28% [3][4] - FOX's growth was primarily driven by a 46% increase in viewership at Fox News Channel [3][25] - The report indicates that linear TV has lost approximately 6 percentage points to streaming and other platforms year-over-year as of April 2025 [14] Valuation and Price Targets - The valuation methodologies for the companies include various EBITDA multiples, with DIS at 11X for Parks and Experiences, and FOX at 7.0X for NTM+1Y EBITDA [27][29][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-channel and multi-platform distribution strategies for media companies to sustain growth in streaming engagement [6]

Raise TP on steady growth centered on Japan and defensive earnings, but limited valuation appeal; stay Neutral | 4307.T | | --- | | 12m Price Target: ¥5,800 | | Price: ¥5,891 | | Downside: 1.5% | We update our earnings estimates based on Nomura Research Institute's (NRI) FY3/25 and 4Q (January-March) results (see our report on 4Q results). We lower our FY3/26 and FY3/27 operating profit estimates by 1% each, mainly on industrial IT solutions, reflecting the impact of a possible deterioration in business sen ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on US companies, particularly those exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers, suggesting a moderate negative impact from tariffs [2][3][51]. Core Insights - The White House has implemented significant tariff increases, raising the US effective tariff rate by 9 percentage points, which is six times larger than during the 2018-2019 trade war [5][6]. - Equity returns for US companies exposed to Chinese suppliers and customers initially underperformed by 4 percentage points around tariff escalation announcements, with a net effect of -1.3 percentage points after some recovery during de-escalation announcements [2][17]. - Companies with exposure to other international suppliers and customers showed only modest underperformance compared to domestically focused companies across all tariff announcement days [3][21]. - Companies expected to benefit from tariffs did not show significant outperformance during tariff escalations or de-escalations, indicating skepticism about the competitive advantages provided by tariffs [3][26]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on US Companies - The report analyzes how the equity market has priced the impact of tariffs on US companies, focusing on exposures to China and other international markets [11][12]. - Companies exposed to Chinese suppliers or customers had already underperformed by 3.7 percentage points before the first tariff announcement, suggesting some impact was priced in advance [20][23]. Industry-Level Analysis - Industries in the top quartile of exposure to tariff-driven input cost increases underperformed those in the bottom quartile by 8 percentage points on tariff escalation announcement days [36]. - The overall net underperformance for these industries was -3 percentage points, indicating a moderate negative impact from trade tensions [36]. Market Reactions - The equity market has not sold off significantly in aggregate, reflecting investor optimism that the worst tariff shocks are behind [8][50]. - The report suggests that while the market has priced in some negative effects of tariffs, the anticipated benefits for companies protected by tariffs remain limited and statistically insignificant [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a 12-month price target of $78.00, indicating an upside potential of 25.1% from the current price of $62.33 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights Trip.com Group's strategic path to becoming the leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) in Asia within the next 3-5 years, emphasizing a full-funnel marketing strategy to enhance value for both suppliers and customers [1][19]. - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue contribution to approximately 50% in the long run, up from 35% currently, indicating significant growth potential outside of China [1][18]. - Management has established a $100 million Tourism Innovation Fund to support the development of the tourism industry, showcasing a commitment to innovation and growth [1][20]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,294 million in 2024 to RMB 77,228.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.7% [6][16]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 17,070 million in 2024 to RMB 23,500 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 30% [6][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 26.20 in 2024 to RMB 33.53 in 2027, indicating a strong profitability outlook [6][16]. Market Strategy - Trip.com Group is focusing on a full-funnel marketing strategy to improve sales conversion rates and enhance partner sales, with significant marketing campaigns planned throughout the year [1][19]. - The company is investing in technology and customer service, aiming to differentiate itself through high service quality and innovative solutions, such as AI-enhanced travel assistants [1][20]. - Management is prioritizing global expansion, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, through active marketing investments and localized product development [1][19]. Competitive Position - The report notes that Trip.com has achieved positive net profit in markets like Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore, capturing a significant market share in these regions [1][19]. - The competitive landscape is described as benign, allowing Trip.com to attract customers with competitive pricing strategies [1][19]. - The company aims to achieve comparable profit levels to global peers like Booking.com through economies of scale and improved operational efficiency [1][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Salesforce Inc. is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of $340, indicating an upside potential of 22.7% from the current price of $277.19 [8][6]. Core Insights - Salesforce reported a Subscription Revenue growth of 8.3% YoY, exceeding the FactSet Consensus of 7.4%. The Operating Margin (OpM) was 32.3%, slightly below the consensus of 32.5% [1]. - The company raised its FY26 Total Revenue guidance to 8.6% YoY in USD and 8% in constant currency (CC), compared to previous guidance of 7.4% and 7.8% [1]. - Key growth drivers include a strong performance in the Data Cloud and AI segment, which reached $1 billion in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), growing 120% YoY [1]. - The company closed 8,000 Agentforce deals, including 4,000 paid deals, indicating robust demand [1]. - The Platform and Other segment, which includes Data Cloud and Slack, showed accelerating momentum with a 14% YoY growth [1]. - Current Remaining Performance Obligations (cRPO) grew by 12.1% YoY, with the highest net new dollars added since F1Q23 [1]. - EMEA region showed stabilization with a 9% YoY growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Subscription Revenue for F1Q26 was $9,255 million, with a YoY growth of 8.3% [9]. - Non-GAAP Operating Income was reported at $3,179 million, with an Operating Margin of 32.6% [9]. - Free Cash Flow Margin reached 64.0%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [9]. Guidance and Expectations - For F2Q26, Salesforce expects Revenue growth of 8.7% in USD and 7.5% in CC, above the consensus of 7.4% [1]. - The company anticipates a Subscription Revenue growth of 9.5% in both USD and CC for FY26, up from previous estimates [1]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of understanding the Create-and-Close business performance, which reflects the health of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [2]. - The report also emphasizes the need to assess the broader spending environment and demand backdrop, particularly in relation to Data Cloud and Agentforce deals [2].