Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - The report highlights three main themes from the 1Q 2025 earnings calls: tariffs, consumer sentiment, and AI impact on businesses [1] Theme 1: Tariffs - 89% of S&P 500 companies mentioned "tariffs" during their earnings calls, indicating significant concern over trade policy uncertainty [3][8] - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, including supply chain adjustments and passing costs to consumers [3][4] - 28% of S&P 500 companies quantified the impact of tariffs, with some estimating cost increases of 6% to 8% [21][31] Theme 2: The Consumer - There is a noted decline in consumer sentiment, with both top and bottom income terciles reporting lower confidence levels than during COVID [9][10] - Despite negative sentiment, some companies report that consumer spending remains strong, while others see signs of weakness in discretionary spending [47][49] - Revisions to 2025 earnings estimates for consumer sectors show negative adjustments of -8% for Consumer Discretionary and -4% for Consumer Staples [10][12] Theme 3: AI - Companies express enthusiasm for AI, citing cost reductions and productivity improvements, although mentions of AI in earnings calls slightly decreased from 48% to 44% [14][20] - Major tech firms are investing heavily in AI, with significant capital expenditures planned to support growth in AI services [15][67] - AI is seen as a long-term growth driver, with companies reporting increased demand for AI-enabled products and services [15][78]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the US-China trade relations, expecting a reduction in tariffs from approximately 160% to around 60% soon, which could enhance investment sentiment in related sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - The resilience in hard economic data has reassured investors, with improved employment reports and jobless claims indicating stability in the labor market, contributing to a significant easing of financial conditions [4][9]. - Despite the positive indicators, the report maintains a 12-month recession risk estimate of 45%, highlighting potential tariff increases in other sectors and the lagging nature of hard data during downturns [9][12]. - The outlook for monetary policy remains uncertain, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, reflecting a dovish stance amid economic challenges [15][19]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - The Trump administration has softened aggressive tariff policies, with expectations of a significant reduction in tariffs on both sides, which could lead to improved trade dynamics [1][3]. Economic Resilience - Recent employment data and jobless claims suggest continued resilience in the labor market, contributing to a sharp easing of financial conditions, with a projected peak financial conditions drag on US GDP growth decreasing from 1.0 percentage points to 0.2 percentage points [4][8]. Recession Risks - The report highlights a 45% recession risk over the next 12 months, with concerns about potential tariff increases in various sectors and the impact of pre-buying on economic data [9][12]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with a dovish outlook for monetary policy in response to economic conditions [15][19]. Market Strategy - The report advises caution for investors, suggesting a weaker dollar and higher gold prices as key themes, while being bullish on UK rates, copper, and US natural gas, but bearish on oil [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month price target of US$23.10, indicating an upside potential of 138.1% from the current price of US$9.70 [17]. Core Insights - Pony AI's commercialization trajectory is viewed positively, driven by decreasing hardware and algorithm costs, expanding service coverage, increasing consumer acceptance, and favorable policy support [1]. - The report anticipates that China's robotaxi industry will achieve operating break-even by 2032, with Pony AI expected to reach operating break-even by 2029, faster than the industry average [1]. - Competitive advantages for Pony AI include experience and successful track records, in-house technology with rapid iterations, and ongoing partnerships with various ecosystem players [1]. Summary by Sections Fleet and Technology - Pony AI's Gen7 robotaxis, announced on April 23, feature lower costs and enhanced safety, supporting large-scale commercialization. The Gen7 model has a designed life of 10 years or 600,000 km and includes advanced sensor technology [6]. - The Gen7 models achieve a 70% reduction in Bill of Materials (BoM) costs compared to Gen6, with 80% savings on the car computing unit and 68% savings on LiDARs [6]. Strategic Partnerships - Pony AI has partnered with Tencent to integrate its robotaxi service into WeChat Mobility Services and Tencent Maps, expanding user access and reducing customer acquisition costs [9]. Earnings and Financial Projections - The report revises earnings estimates for Pony AI from 2025 to 2032, reflecting a more optimistic view on cost of goods sold (COGS) reduction. Lower vehicle and autonomous driving kit costs, along with fleet growth, are expected to improve operational leverage and future earnings [10]. - Revenue projections show significant growth, with revenues expected to reach US$3.85 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% in EBITDA from 2030 to 2032 [11][13]. Valuation - The target price of US$23.10 is based on a discounted EV/EBITDA method with a target multiple of 17.4x for 2030E EBITDA, discounted back to 2025E using a cost of equity (COE) of 11.5% [14].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "BUY" rating for key Robotaxi companies such as Pony AI and Baidu, indicating a positive outlook for their growth potential in the Robotaxi market [19]. Core Insights - The China Robotaxi market is projected to reach a total addressable market (TAM) of US$47 billion by 2035, a significant increase from US$54 million in 2025, driven by decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms [13][24]. - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of L4 autonomous technology is not a question of readiness but rather how companies will capitalize on the rapid advancements in autonomous development [1]. - Positive gross margins are expected at the vehicle level by 2026 in Tier 1 cities, with revenues per Robotaxi projected to reach US$31,000 by 2035 [7][24]. Summary by Sections China Robotaxi TAM Snapshot - The report highlights a substantial growth trajectory for the China Robotaxi market, forecasting a TAM of US$47 billion by 2035, compared to US$54 million in 2025 [13][24]. Ecosystem: Supply Chain of Robotaxi - The supply chain for Robotaxis includes key players such as Pony AI and Baidu, along with semiconductor suppliers like Horizon Robotics and automotive OEMs like Tesla and Xpeng [7][19]. Market Size and Penetration - The report anticipates a fleet size of 1.9 million Robotaxis by 2035, achieving a penetration rate of 25% in the total shared mobility vehicle market [15][24]. - The market size is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 700 times the current TAM growth over the next decade [12]. Revenue Generation - Revenue per Robotaxi in Tier 1 cities is expected to reach US$31,000 by 2035, driven by longer operating hours and efficient route planning [7][24]. Cost Reduction - Operating costs for fleet owners are projected to decrease, with costs per vehicle in Tier 1 cities expected to drop to US$19,000 by 2035 [24]. Unit Economics - The report models positive unit economics, predicting profitability by 2026 in Tier 1 cities and by 2031 and 2034 in Tier 2 and other cities, respectively [7][24]. Policy and Insurance Support - Supportive government policies and the development of insurance for the Robotaxi industry are identified as crucial for facilitating growth [7][24]. Future Market Segmentation - The report discusses potential future developments in the Robotaxi market, including the introduction of new vehicle models and shared ownership models to encourage adoption [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the S&P 500, with a target of 5900, suggesting a potential upside from the current trading levels [2]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is projected at 21.1%, marking a 34 basis points increase from the previous year and ranking in the 99th percentile over the past 50 years [2][4]. - The S&P 500's ROE is significantly higher than that of the rest of the developed world, with a gap of 8 percentage points (21% vs. 12%), which contributes to the US stock market's valuation premium [2][14]. - The report highlights that while the S&P 500 is expected to maintain its superior ROE, further widening of the ROE gap may be challenging due to headwinds affecting profit margins [2][31]. - The Magnificent 7 companies, which constitute a significant portion of the S&P 500, are experiencing a slowdown in ROE growth, which may impact overall index performance [33]. Summary by Sections Return on Equity Analysis - The S&P 500 ROE is highest in the Consumer Discretionary (34%) and Information Technology (32%) sectors, while Real Estate has the lowest ROE at 9% [2][10]. - The report utilizes a DuPont decomposition to analyze ROE drivers, identifying higher EBIT margins and asset turnover as key contributors to the ROE increase in 2024 [4][25]. Sector Performance - ROE increased in five out of eleven sectors in 2024, with the most significant expansion in Communication Services (+412 basis points) and the largest contraction in Energy (-537 basis points) [8][10]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 currently trades at a 2.4x greater Price/Book (P/B) multiple compared to the MSCI World ex. US, reflecting the valuation premium associated with higher profitability [10][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect the S&P 500 ROE to remain flat in 2025, with a slight increase of 40 basis points in 2026, similar to expectations for the MSCI World ex. US [31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geographic diversification in investment portfolios due to the anticipated challenges in maintaining profit margins [31].

1 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 5.2% in 2024) based on the Customs definition. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Hwatsing and Maxscend to Neutral from Buy due to relatively lower upside potential across the coverage [2][30]. Core Insights - The report remains positive on China Semis, driven by generative AI and autonomous driving trends, with upgrades for SMIC, VeriSilicon, AMEC, and Cambricon to Buy [1][2]. - Hwatsing is a local leader in CMP equipment, expanding into wafer thinning and ion implantation tools, but faces challenges in revenue growth from mature nodes [11][28]. - Maxscend is experiencing slower growth in the Android smartphone market, impacting its revenue and net income forecasts [31]. Summary by Company Hwatsing - Downgraded to Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb201, suggesting a 22% upside potential [10][11]. - Revenue estimates for 2025-27E revised down by 4%/5%/6% due to slower contributions from mature nodes CMP tools [2][14]. - Expected revenue growth of 38%/20% YoY in 2025/26E driven by product mix upgrades towards advanced nodes [12][14]. - 1Q25 results showed revenues of Rmb912 million, a 34% YoY increase but 7% below estimates [14][15]. Maxscend - Downgraded to Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb86, indicating a 14.9% upside potential [30][31]. - Net income estimates reduced by 36%/25%/4% for 2025-27E due to weaker-than-expected 1Q25 results and slow smartphone market growth [31]. - The company is expanding its product lines from RF discrete to modules, but faces gross margin pressure from pricing competition [31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation industry but discusses various scenarios impacting trade volumes and earnings for 2025, indicating a cautious outlook [2][3]. Core Insights - The report introduces a US Tariff Impact Tracker to assess the ongoing effects of tariffs on global supply chains and freight flow, with a focus on high-frequency data [1]. - It outlines two primary scenarios for 2025: continued pull forward of shipments ahead of a 90-day tariff pause and a potential pause in customer orders due to uncertainty [2]. - The report suggests that trade flows from non-China Asia may remain stable as shippers adjust supply chains, while shipments from China to the US are expected to decline significantly [3]. - UPS anticipates a 25% decrease in China to US business in the second quarter, with overall international revenues projected to decline by only 2% year-over-year [3]. High Frequency Data Summary - Laden container vessels from China to the US have decreased by 23.3% year-over-year on average over the last week, following a previous increase of 22% [6]. - TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) from China to the US have dropped by 26% year-over-year on average over the last week, down from a previous increase of 14% [11]. - Planned TEUs into the Port of Los Angeles decreased by 18% year-over-year, with forecasts indicating a further decline of 35% year-over-year in the following week [21]. Trade Volume Trends - The report notes that intermodal traffic on the West Coast increased by 5% on average in week 17, indicating that front-loaded traffic is still impacting volumes [27]. - The Logistics Managers Index shows upstream inventory expansion slowing down, while downstream inventories are expanding at a faster pace, possibly in anticipation of tariffs [47]. - The report highlights that the balance of trade volumes and earnings for the transportation sector remains uncertain, with potential scenarios ranging from a surge in orders to a continued decline [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sanhua, Shuanghuan, and a "Neutral" rating for LeaderDrive, Best Precision, and Moons' Electric [1][42][45][46][49]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid product iterations and increased R&D focus across various players, indicating a strong long-term total addressable market (TAM) potential despite uncertainties in near-term technological breakthroughs [1]. - The report forecasts 20,000 units of humanoid robots to be shipped in 2025 and 1.4 million units globally by 2035 [1]. - Domestic players are accelerating commercialization efforts, with several auto OEMs like Tesla, XPENG, and Xiaomi testing humanoid robots in their factories, aiming for mass production by 2025-2026 [2]. - The shift in R&D focus from hardware to robotic AI development is evident, with startups introducing various AI models trained on real data to enhance performance [2]. Product Progress - A small scale of commercialization is expected in 2025, with domestic players speeding up public sales of humanoid robots [2]. - Companies like ENGINEAI have started selling humanoid robots at competitive prices, with some models priced below RMB 200,000 [2]. - Major players are establishing production lines with capacities ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 units annually, adjusting expansion based on actual customer orders [6]. Software Development - High-quality real data is crucial for training robotic AI models, with startups focusing on developing their own AI systems [2]. - UBTech is optimizing its training strategy by combining real and simulated data to improve efficiency and reduce costs [2]. Hardware Innovations - The report highlights the emergence of new players in the humanoid robot component market, focusing on product differentiation [7]. - Companies like LeaderDrive and Shuanghuan are developing new reducer products and enhancing their manufacturing capabilities [7][29][31]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for humanoid robots is expanding, with various component manufacturers reporting progress in R&D and sample testing [10]. - Companies like Sanhua and Tuopu are preparing for mass production of actuators and other components, targeting significant market shares [26][27]. Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with various companies aiming to capture substantial market shares in their respective segments [42][45][46]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous innovation and adaptation in the rapidly evolving humanoid robot industry [2][6].