2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 特朗普签署行政令，自 11 月 1 日起对进口中型和重型卡车 及零部件征收 25%的新关税 瑞银上调全球股市评级尤其看好中国科技股 9 月新开两融户 20.54 万户创年度新高，同比增 288% 国常会：推动人工智能等与物流深度融合 我国生成式人工智能用户规模超 5 亿 三部门：扩大海南离岛免税商品范围 财政部等三部门：调整风力发电等增值税政策 武汉经开区：购买首套新房可享受最高 4 万元贷款利息补贴 苹果 iPhone Air 预售 5 分钟售罄 比亚迪召回部分唐、元 Pro 汽车，共计 115783 辆 2 年期美债收益率涨 4.77 个基点报 3.466% 5 年期美债收益率涨 5.19 个基点报 3.595% 10 年期美债收益率涨 4.00 个基点报 4.013% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025 ...

Group 1: Characteristics of Small and Medium-sized Stocks - Small and medium-sized stocks in the Hong Kong market are defined as those with a market capitalization below HKD 30 billion[11] - Companies with a market capitalization below HKD 10 billion account for approximately 77.5% of the total number of companies, but only 3.5% of the total market capitalization[13] - The average daily trading volume for small and medium-sized stocks is only 20%, with 80% of trading concentrated in 200 blue-chip stocks[16] Group 2: Valuation Discounts and Investment Opportunities - Small-cap stocks are currently trading at a significant discount, with a PE ratio of approximately 9.2x and a PB ratio of 0.8x, compared to the Hang Seng Index's 14.8x PE and 1.1x PB[17] - The lack of institutional investor interest and poor liquidity contribute to the low valuation levels of small-cap stocks[17] - High-quality small-cap stocks are identified as having a "low valuation + stable fundamentals + high growth" characteristic, indicating potential investment opportunities[17] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Institutional investors dominate the Hong Kong market, with a trading share of 56.5%, while individual investors account for only 15.5%[27] - Foreign institutional investors hold nearly two-thirds of the market capitalization, leading to a preference for high-liquidity large-cap stocks[27] - The lack of research coverage for small-cap stocks results in insufficient market analysis and investor information, further exacerbating their undervaluation[32] Group 4: Performance and Growth Potential - Small-cap stocks have shown significant price elasticity and potential for high returns, with several stocks increasing over 500% since 2024[36] - The growth potential of small-cap companies is enhanced by their ability to quickly adapt to market changes and focus on niche markets[37] - Historical data indicates that small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks during bull markets, particularly in periods of increased investor risk appetite[41]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. bond market, with a notable decrease in yields for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [4] - The report also emphasizes the growth in the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China, which increased by 22% year-on-year in September, reflecting a robust demand in the sector [4] - The report notes that China's elderly population has reached 22%, marking the country’s entry into a moderately aging society, which may have implications for various industries, including healthcare and consumer goods [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1936.00, up by 0.68%, while the Nasdaq Index fell by 3.56% to 22204.43, indicating volatility in the tech sector [6] - The report presents a decline in major U.S. indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1.90% and the S&P 500 down by 2.71%, suggesting a bearish trend in the market [6] - The report includes the closing prices of various commodities, with Brent crude oil at $62.09, down by 4.80%, and gold at $4017.85, up by 1.05%, indicating fluctuations in commodity prices [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, including a softening job market and inflation exceeding targets [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to increased investments in risk assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reports that as of September 30, 277 companies are in the IPO queue [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1901.00, down 0.42% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22780.51, down 0.28% [4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 4.11 basis points to 3.568% [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.46 basis points to 4.115% [3] New Stock Information - New IPO: Xuan Zhu Biological - B, scheduled for October 6, 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trends in the U.S. debt market, with a notable decrease in yields for various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [4][5][6] - The mechanical industry in China aims for an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 3.5% from 2025 to 2026, reflecting a cautious optimism in the sector [4] - The report also notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, including a decline in crude oil prices by 3.54% to $67.65 per barrel, which may impact related industries [5] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2259.00, down by 0.31%, while the Nasdaq Index increased by 0.48% to 22591.15 [5] - The CME Bitcoin futures rose by 4.91% to $115165.00, indicating a strong performance in the cryptocurrency market [5] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.89% to 26622.88, reflecting positive market sentiment in Hong Kong [5] Industry Insights - The report mentions the introduction of a new youth technology talent visa in China, which could enhance the country's innovation capabilities and attract skilled professionals [4] - The report discusses the implications of U.S. tariffs on foreign-produced goods, particularly in the furniture and film industries, which may affect international trade dynamics [4]

Economic Data - The US current account deficit for Q2 2023 is reported at $251.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since Q3 2023 [4] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the US in September is 52, aligning with expectations [4] - The Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for September is 49.5, falling below the growth threshold [4] - The OECD forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June 2023 estimate [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,573.47, down 0.95% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,292.78, down 0.19% [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,656.92, down 0.55% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,159.12, down 0.70% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,821.83, down 0.18% [5] Commodity and Currency Trends - The price of Brent crude oil is reported at $67.79, up 1.83% [5] - The London gold spot price is $3,762.99, up 0.46% [5] - The US dollar index stands at 97.24, down 0.08% [5] - The exchange rate for USD to CNY (CFETS) is 7.11, down 0.02% [5] Technology Sector Insights - Apple is experiencing a surge in demand for the iPhone 17, indicating significant upgrade potential globally [4] - TSMC's 2nm process pricing has increased by at least 50% compared to the 3nm process [4]

Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 3.36 basis points to 3.601%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.45 basis points to 3.701%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 2.12 basis points to 4.147%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,788.98, up 0.70%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 46,381.54, up 0.14%[5] - The S&P 500 index ended at 6,693.75, up 0.44%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,344.14, down 0.76%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,828.58, up 0.22%[5] Commodity Prices - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was $66.56, down 0.18%[5] - The spot price of London gold was $3,745.85, up 1.66%[5]

资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 9 月 19 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 1 请务必阅读免责条款 美联储降息为美股 IPO"开绿灯" 多行业企业将启动申请 美国 9 月费城联储制造业指数录得 23.2，大幅高于预期 美国上周初请失业金人数为 23.1 万 低于预期 美英签署科技合作协议 迫于特朗普压力，欧盟计划加快逐步淘汰俄罗斯液化天然气 英国央行维持利率不变 符合预期 韩股再创历史新高，年内累涨 44.25% 英伟达以 50 亿美元入股英特尔 并达成芯片合作 微软豪掷 70 余亿美元 打造"世界最强 AI 数据中心" 华为公布未来三年昇腾芯片发展路线图 2 年期美债收益率涨 1.03 个基点报 3.555% 5 年期美债收益率涨 0.52 个基点报 3.658% 10 年期美债收益率涨 1.15 个基点报 4.101% 【新股资讯】 | 序号 | 招股日 | 代码 | 简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2025-09-19 | 2259 | 紫金黄金国际 | | ...

即时点评 高教板块异动，关注民办教育政策变化 教育行业 2025-9-15 星期一 【事件】 2025 年 9 月 14 日，宇华教育发布公告，公司旗下的湖南涉外经济学院， 近期收到了相关政府主管部门的批覆，同意其开展营利性民办学校分类登 记。此批覆是同意学校按照政府部门的相关要求开展营利性登记工作，并 不是已经成功登记成为了营利性学校。学校正在按照主管部门的要求逐步 进行相关工作，暂不确定后续所需的时间。受此事件催化，港股民办高教 板块走强。 【点评观点】 ➢ 湖南涉外经济学院获批开展营利性登记，释放积极信号 宇华教育集团旗下湖南涉外经济学院转营利获批，同意该校开展营利性民 办学校分类登记。公开资料显示，2017 年底，湖南涉外经济学院加入宇华 教育集团，逐步化解了学校涉外发展的结构性问题。湖南涉外经济学院是 经教育部批准成立的民办普通本科院校，开设了 48 个本科专业，8 个专科 专业，有全日制在校学生 2.7 万人。 湖南涉外经济学院转营成功对发展中省份具有较强示范作用。湖南省地方 教育行政部门在民办高校转营事务中更积极作为，增强了其他民办学校的 转营意愿。2025 年湖南已批 3 所转营（含涉外），为 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - The company has developed a product pipeline consisting of 16 oncology candidate drugs, including 10 in clinical stages, indicating strong innovation potential[2] - The licensing agreement with Merck grants exclusive commercialization rights for Pimicotinib and related products in China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, with a total agreement value of $605.5 million, including an upfront payment of $70 million[2] - The core product IMM01 is the first clinical-stage CD47-targeted molecule in China, showcasing the company's competitive edge in small molecule drugs[2] Group 2: Financial Metrics and Projections - The total market capitalization of 康哲药业 is HKD 337 million, with a projected revenue recovery to double-digit growth in 2025[2] - 阿里巴巴's market capitalization stands at HKD 25,576 million, with a projected PE ratio of 30.78 for 2024, indicating relative valuation advantages[2] - The company expects a significant increase in sales volume, with a target of 1 million units by 2026 for 零跑汽车, reflecting a growth rate of over 88% year-on-year in August deliveries[3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Trends - The company plans to acquire a 60.8% stake in 深圳众为创造科技有限公司 for approximately HKD 99.5 million, enhancing its product portfolio and operational capabilities[2] - 阿里巴巴's "One Taobao" strategy has led to a 20% year-on-year increase in DAU, with the flash sale business experiencing a 200% growth in order volume[2] - The education sector is witnessing policy improvements, with 卓越教育集团 benefiting from a strong demand outlook and a projected revenue increase of 188.9% year-on-year in H1 2025[3]