请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 究 报 告 11 月非农超预期，贝森特乐观展望美国经济 美国威胁拟对欧盟公司就数字税问题采取反制 特朗普签署公告，进一步限制外国公民入境美国 欧盟将放弃 2035 年内燃机禁令 日本敲定 18.3 万亿日元补充预算 全球五大 PC 厂商都将涨价 中国获批全球首个治疗药物成瘾的侵入式脑机接口产品 中汽协：11 月商用车产销同比大增 海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关 苹果到 2027 年秋季或将推出 7 款全新 iPhone 机型 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.45 个基点报 3.485% 5 年期美债收益率跌 2.97 个基点报 3.695% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.12 个基点报 4.143% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 | 2193.00 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the reappointment of 11 regional Federal Reserve presidents, which alleviates concerns regarding personnel uncertainty [4] - It notes that initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 236,000, exceeding expectations [4] - The report mentions an unexpected narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in September to the smallest level since June 2020 [4] - The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecast for China in 2025 [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2430.00, down 4.97% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23593.86, down 0.25% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48704.01, up 1.34% [5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6901.00, up 0.21% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25530.51, down 0.04% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32, down 0.70% [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing investigation into potential price manipulation in the food industry initiated by Trump, which may impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [4] - The report notes a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and a continuous 13-month trend of gold accumulation by the central bank, indicating a strengthening of financial stability [4] - The report mentions a year-end push in the real estate market with various regions increasing home purchase subsidies, which could stimulate housing demand [4] Economic Data - The report provides key economic indicators, including the Baltic Dry Index at 2727.00, down 3.09%, and the CME Bitcoin futures at 89425.00, down 3.68% [5] - Oil prices are noted with ICE Brent crude at 63.86, up 0.95%, while gold is at 4197.41, down 0.25% [5] - The report lists major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26085.08, up 0.58%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 3902.81, up 0.70% [8][5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23578.13, up 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47954.99, up 0.22% [8] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6870.40, up 0.19%, while the Nikkei 225 is at 50491.87, down 1.05% [8] - The report also highlights the performance of the Shenzhen Composite Index at 2468.88, up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index at 3109.30, up 1.36% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cheetah Mobile (CMCM.US) with a target price of $9.00, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of $6.80 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 287.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%, marking the first operational profit in six years with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 15.12 million yuan [3][6]. - The "AI and Others" segment generated 145 million yuan in revenue, a significant year-on-year growth of 150.8%, accounting for 50.4% of total revenue, thus becoming the largest revenue source for the company [4][6]. - The traditional internet business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.0% year-on-year, contributing stable cash flow during the company's strategic transition [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023, the main business revenue is projected at 670 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 24.3%. This is expected to recover with a growth of 20.5% in FY2024, reaching 807 million yuan, and further increasing to 1.104 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a growth of 36.9% [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to be 65.4% in FY2023, slightly improving to 67.6% in FY2024, before declining to 65.6% in FY2025 [11][12]. Strategic Transition - The company has successfully transitioned from a traditional mobile internet tool provider to an AI-driven industrial internet and robotics technology enterprise, validating the feasibility and long-term growth potential of its strategic transformation initiated in 2016 [5][8]. - The integration of AI technology has not only driven revenue growth but also significantly reduced operational costs, with the expense ratio decreasing from 105.5% to 73.4% year-on-year [4][7]. Market Position - Cheetah Mobile's AI business has officially entered the commercial return phase, achieving substantial revenue growth and marking a significant milestone in its transformation journey [5][8]. - The company’s strategic focus on AI and robotics positions it favorably within the rapidly growing AI SaaS and robotics industry, as evidenced by its competitive advantages in the market [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company operates on a fabless model, focusing on chip research and design while outsourcing wafer manufacturing and most packaging testing to third-party suppliers. It provides high-performance and reliable products and solutions in automotive electronics, energy, and consumer electronics [2]. - The company's product categories include sensors, signal chain chips, and power management chips, forming a complete system link from perception to signal processing and system power supply [2]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company ranks 14th among all analog chip companies in China with a market share of 0.9% in the analog chip market, and 5th among Chinese analog chip companies [2][3]. Market Overview - The analog chip market in China is projected to reach RMB 195.3 billion in 2024, with the IDM model accounting for 76.4% (approximately RMB 149.2 billion) and the fabless model holding a smaller share of 23.6% (approximately RMB 46.1 billion) [3]. - The fabless model is expected to gain traction, with its market share projected to reach 27.4% (approximately RMB 91.5 billion) by 2029. The fastest-growing segments will be in new energy vehicles, smart devices, and artificial intelligence, particularly in the power management chip market, which is expected to expand to RMB 223.4 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 12.1% from 2025 to 2029 [3]. Financial Performance - The company's revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 1,670.4 million, RMB 1,310.9 million, and RMB 1,960.3 million, respectively. The net profit/loss figures were RMB 250.57 million, RMB -305.33 million, and RMB -402.88 million for the same years [3]. Valuation - The company's Hong Kong IPO valuation is approximately 8.7 times PS for 2024, which is considered reasonable and positioned in the middle of the industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company "Encounter Noodle" (2408.HK) [1][4] Core Insights - Encounter Noodle is the largest operator of Sichuan-Chongqing style noodle restaurants in China, with a network of 451 restaurants in 22 cities in mainland China and 14 in Hong Kong [2] - The Chinese noodle restaurant market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2029, outpacing the average growth of the Chinese fast food market at 9.0% [2] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 8.01 billion, 11.54 billion, and 7.03 billion CNY for the fiscal years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 91.47%, 44.21%, and 33.77% [3] - The company's net profit for the same periods is projected to be 0.46 billion, 0.61 billion, and 0.42 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 227.63%, 32.2%, and 95.77% [3] - The current median IPO price of 6.34 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 67 for 2024, and assuming similar growth rates, a PE ratio of about 34 for 2025, indicating a high valuation [4] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price range is set between 5.64 and 7.04 HKD, with a median price of 6.34 HKD [1] - The total fundraising amount is estimated at 5.516 billion HKD [1] - The total number of shares available for subscription is 9,736,450, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [1] Company Performance - The company has expanded its store count significantly, with 252, 360, and 417 stores for the fiscal years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [3] - Same-store sales have shown fluctuations, with a decline in 2024 attributed to price reductions, although daily orders have increased [3] - The direct restaurant profit margins have improved, reaching 12.5%, 13.3%, and 15.1% for the respective periods, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that consumer spending has further declined, becoming a major drag on economic stagnation [4] - The report highlights that the U.S. initial jobless claims last week were 216,000, lower than expected [4] - It notes that the UK budget unexpectedly leaked early, increasing the fiscal buffer to £22 billion [4] Group 2 - The report anticipates that China's battery production will exceed 1500 GWh by 2025 [4] - OpenAI projects that ChatGPT will reach 220 million paid users within five years [4] - Li Auto reported a net loss of 624 million yuan in the third quarter, betting on embodied intelligence [4] Group 3 - The report provides various economic data, including the Baltic Dry Index at 2309.00, up 0.61% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23214.69, up 0.82%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47427.12, up 0.67% [5] - The report lists significant market indices, with the Hang Seng Index at 25928.08, up 0.13% [5]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

Economic Data - In October, China's retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while industrial added value rose by 4.9% year-on-year[4] - The housing prices in 70 major cities in China experienced an overall decline in October[4] - The new energy storage installation capacity in China surged over 3000%[4] Market Trends - The U.S. and Switzerland reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15%[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.90 basis points to 3.606%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.71 basis points to 4.146%[4] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,900.59, up by 0.13%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,147.48, down by 0.65%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,572.46, down by 1.85%[5]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor statistics office failed to release the October CPI report as scheduled, which may impact market expectations [3] - The White House officials predict a 1.5 percentage point decrease in Q4 GDP growth due to the government shutdown [3] - China's social financing increased by 0.81 trillion yuan in October, with new RMB loans amounting to 0.22 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,870.36, down 2.29%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.65% to 47,457.22 [5] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.56% to 27,073.03, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.80% to 5,981.30 [5][8] - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 2.03% to 2,030.00, indicating a decline in shipping rates [5] Group 3: Sector Developments - Several silicon wafer companies have united to resist low-price competition and support price increases [3] - BlackRock increased its holdings in NVIDIA by nearly 19.5 million shares while reducing its stake in Apple during Q3 [3]