2025 年 11 月 25 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2025/11/25 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/11/18》2025-11-18 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/11/11》2025-11-11 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/11/5》2025-11-05 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/10/28》2025-10-28 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/10/21》2025-10-21 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆ ...

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which differs from trend trading that relies on long-term market predictions. Grid trading is based on price fluctuations and aims to profit from natural price movements within a certain range, making it suitable for frequently fluctuating markets. In a volatile market, investors can enhance returns by repeatedly capturing small price differences before adjusting positions and strategies when a new market direction becomes clear [4][12]. Group 2: Characteristics of Suitable Grid Trading Targets - Suitable characteristics for grid trading targets include: 1) selection of on-market targets; 2) stable long-term trends; 3) low transaction costs; 4) good liquidity; 5) high volatility. Based on these characteristics, equity ETFs are considered relatively suitable for grid trading [4][12]. Group 3: Analysis of ETF Grid Trading Targets - The report highlights three key ETFs for grid trading: 1. **Saudi ETF (159329.SZ)**: This ETF is one of the two domestic tools linked to the Saudi capital market, capturing the long-term economic transformation benefits under Saudi's "Vision 2030". The plan aims to reduce oil dependency and diversify the economy, with strategic goals including increasing the non-oil GDP share from 16% to at least 50% and elevating Saudi's global economic ranking from 19th to 15th. As of October 20, the financial sector accounted for over 40% of the ETF's holdings, with consumer and technology sectors exceeding 20%, while traditional fossil energy represented only about 10% [4][13]. 2. **Banking ETF (512800.SH)**: This ETF, tracking the CSI 800 Banking Index, has a dividend yield of 4.40% as of September 30, 2025, significantly higher than the market average and the ten-year government bond yield. It is expected to remain a key allocation direction for medium to long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies, as they seek to mitigate the impact of declining interest rates and address "asset scarcity" [5][15]. 3. **Military Industry ETF (512660.SH)**: The report notes that China's defense budget for 2025 is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high. However, this budget still represents less than 1.3% of GDP, significantly lower than the U.S. and Russia. The ETF tracks the CSI Defense Index, focusing on core areas such as aviation equipment, missiles, and new materials, and is expected to benefit from improvements in the defense sector's fundamentals [6][7][17]. Group 4: Recommendations for Grid Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to use grid trading strategies by selecting several suitable ETFs with low correlation to form a diversified portfolio. This can include combinations of different types of ETFs, such as "broad-based + sector" or "A-shares + Hong Kong stocks", which not only helps to spread risk but also enhances capital utilization through rotation effects [20][21].

Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The essence of "grid trading" is a high buy low sell strategy, which differs from trend trading as it does not predict market trends but instead capitalizes on natural price fluctuations within a certain range to generate profits, making it suitable for frequently fluctuating markets [3][10] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate for grid trading [3][10] Group 2: Analysis of ETF Grid Strategy Targets - The Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) is one of the only two instruments linked to the Saudi capital market, capturing the long-term economic transformation dividends under Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," which aims to reduce oil dependency and diversify the economy [3][11] - As of October 13, 2025, the Saudi ETF's underlying holdings show over 40% in the financial sector, over 20% in consumer and technology sectors, and only about 10% in traditional fossil energy, reflecting a diversified and emerging industry structure [3][11] - The Tourism ETF (159766.SZ) is a key driver in China's shift from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth, supported by government measures to stimulate domestic tourism consumption, with significant increases in domestic travel and spending during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4][14]

Group 1 - The core idea of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy, which is a high buy-low sell approach that capitalizes on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][11] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights two main ETFs for grid trading: - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ), which focuses on high-quality new economy leaders in China, aligning with government initiatives to promote technological and industrial innovation, and indirectly tracks the S&P China New Economy Index [3][12] - The Financial ETF (510230.SH), which provides a defensive high dividend yield through banks and captures performance recovery through securities and insurance sectors, with banks showing a dividend yield of 5.86% as of June 30, 2025, significantly above market averages [4][14] - The report suggests that investors can enhance returns by combining multiple ETFs with low correlation, such as mixing broad-based and sector-specific ETFs or combining A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][11] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights the "New Economy ETF" (159822.SZ) as a focus for grid trading, benefiting from policy incentives and industrial upgrades, with a strong emphasis on sectors like artificial intelligence and biotechnology [3][12] - The "National Defense ETF" (512670.SH) is noted for its potential growth due to increased defense spending, with a 2025 budget of 1.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.2% year-on-year increase, and is expected to benefit from improvements in the defense sector [4][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][11] - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are appropriate for this strategy [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights three specific ETFs for grid trading: - The S&P Consumer ETF (159529.SZ) benefits from expectations of interest rate cuts in the US and improved US-China trade relations, making it a tool for regional diversification [3][12] - The Xinchuang ETF (562570.SH) is driven by policy support and domestic substitution, with significant government investment aimed at supporting projects in electronic information and industrial sectors [4][15] - The New Economy ETF (159822.SZ) captures new economic growth drivers in China, supported by government policies promoting technological and industrial innovation [5][16]

Core Insights - The ETF Summer Peak Competition organized by Ping An Securities and 13 leading fund companies achieved significant success, with the champion recording over 48% returns, highlighting the effectiveness of ETF tools in a complex market environment [1][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - The capital market experienced an upward trend driven by policy support and industrial transformation, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and rare metals during June to July 2025 [1]. - The competition served as a vivid example of market ecology, with participants successfully capturing key market themes driven by southbound capital and policy support [1]. Group 2: Investor Education and Support - Ping An Securities upgraded its services for new ETF investors by addressing three core pain points: high cognitive barriers, weak decision-making abilities, and low operational confidence [4]. - The competition was tailored for first-time ETF traders, providing a comprehensive training system that includes practical, scenario-based guidance [4][10]. - New tools such as "Smart ETF" and "Grid Trading Strategy" were introduced to enhance decision-making efficiency for investors [8]. Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - The company aims to become a "warm" ETF advisory service provider, focusing on retail clients and offering full lifecycle services [10]. - Collaboration with major fund companies led to the creation of a robust service matrix, including over 20 live broadcasts and 50 video tutorials, reaching more than 2.5 million views [10][15]. - The competition's promotional efforts reached over 6 million exposures through various media channels, enhancing community engagement and investor interaction [15][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Ping An Securities plans to deepen its "three savings" financial service philosophy—saving time, effort, and money—while leveraging technology to build a more efficient and inclusive ETF market in China [21].

Group 1 - The report outlines a grid trading strategy that focuses on profiting from price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][14] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include being exchange-traded, having stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the Innovation Drug ETF (159992.SZ), which is expected to benefit from increasing demand due to global aging and supportive government policies, with 48 new innovative drugs approved in 2024 [5][15] - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) is projected to gain from high industry prosperity, domestic substitution, and policy incentives, with a significant investment fund of 344 billion RMB established to support semiconductor development [6][18] - The Tourism ETF (159766.SZ) is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of domestic and international tourism, supported by government measures to boost tourism consumption and a notable increase in travel activity during the Qingming holiday [7][20] - The A500 Index ETF (159351.SZ) aligns with China's strategy of self-sufficiency and innovation, focusing on key sectors like electronics and defense, with a current PE-TTM of 14.08, indicating valuation attractiveness [8][23] Group 3 - The report suggests that investors can enhance returns by diversifying their grid trading strategy across different ETFs with low correlation, such as combining broad-based and sector-specific ETFs [27] - A table of additional ETFs suitable for grid trading is provided, including various categories and investment scopes, indicating a broad range of options for investors [28][30]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the grid trading strategy as a method to profit from price fluctuations without predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][15] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include selecting on-market assets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][15] Group 2 - The report highlights the focus on specific ETFs for grid trading, including the National Defense ETF (512670.SH), which benefits from China's strengthening military capabilities and ongoing innovations in defense technology [5][16] - The Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159333.SZ) is noted for its high dividend yield, supported by government policies encouraging long-term capital investment and stable dividend mechanisms [6][19] - The National Goods ETF (561130.SH) aligns with government initiatives to boost consumption, focusing on domestic brands and sectors benefiting from consumer upgrades [7][20] - The Morgan MSCI ETF (515770.SH) is positioned as a tool for global investors to access Chinese core assets, reflecting the current economic cycle and policy advantages in China [9][24]