| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/5/7 | 星期三 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/7 | 新股发行 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | | | | | 787755 | 汉邦科技 | 22.77 | 2025/5/7 | 内地市场权益提示 | | | | | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122337 | 要约申报期1：2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | | | 5830&orgId=gssh0600777&announcementTime=2025 | -04-29 | 要约收购 | 600777 | ST新潮 | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId= ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has cooled, leading to market fluctuations and uncertainties [9][10][12] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline since Q1 2022, which may impact market sentiment [9] - The non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations with 177,000 new jobs added in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [9] Group 2 - In the bond market, there is an expectation for macroeconomic data to be released soon, with a focus on holding bonds as yields may decline further [10][12] - The stock market is expected to experience short-term disturbances, but sectors with strong earnings performance, particularly high-dividend defensive sectors like banks and utilities, are likely to be favored [3][12] - The report suggests monitoring sectors influenced by national subsidies, such as consumer electronics and home appliances, as well as non-energy cyclical sectors like steel and non-ferrous metals [3][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a cautious state, with a preference for defensive positions in both the bond and stock markets [15] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a decline in average daily trading volume to 1,103.9 billion yuan, reflecting a low market sentiment [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and China's CPI and PPI data [21]

| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/4/30 | 星期三 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/30 | 内地市场权益提示 | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | | | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122337 | 要约申报期1：2025年4月8日至2025年5月7日 | 5830&orgId=gssh0600777&announcementTime=2025 | -04-29 | 要约收购 | 600777 | ST新潮 | | | https://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=600777&announcementId=122337 | 要约申报期2：2025年4月23日至2025年5月22日 | 5831&orgId=gssh0600777&announceme ...

New Stock Offerings - ST Xinchao (600777) has two tender offer periods: April 8 to May 7, 2025, and April 23 to May 22, 2025[1] - Puli Tui (300630) is in the delisting arrangement period with 13 trading days remaining[1] - ST Yushun (002289) and ST Jingan (600190) are also highlighted for their recent announcements[1] Market Alerts - Jinlitai (300225) has been flagged for severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - Guoguang Chain (605188) and Dongfang Tong (300379) have recent announcements regarding their trading status[1] - Multiple stocks including Huadian Energy (600726) and Huadian Liaoning (600396) have recent updates as of April 29, 2025[1] Trading Periods - The last trading day for several stocks is approaching, with specific mention of ST Yushun and ST Jingan[1] - The report indicates that various stocks are under observation due to unusual trading activities[2]

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Stock Market Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors **Construction Idea**: Analyze the dominant market style trends, including size and value-growth preferences [10][13] **Construction Process**: - **Size Style**: Evaluate the preference for large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks - **Value-Growth Style**: Assess the inclination towards value stocks compared to growth stocks - **Volatility Metrics**: Measure the volatility of size and value-growth styles to track stability trends [10][13] **Evaluation**: The market style factors indicate a stable preference for large-cap and value stocks, with declining volatility in both dimensions [10][13] - **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors **Construction Idea**: Examine the structural dynamics of the market, including industry performance and trading concentration [10][13] **Construction Process**: - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Calculate the dispersion of excess returns across industry indices - **Industry Rotation Speed**: Measure the rate of industry rotation - **Concentration Metrics**: Analyze the trading concentration by evaluating the proportion of trading volume in the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries [10][13] **Evaluation**: The market structure factors reveal increased industry rotation and reduced trading concentration, indicating a more dispersed market environment [10][13] - **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors **Construction Idea**: Assess the overall activity level in the market through volatility and turnover metrics [10][13] **Construction Process**: - **Volatility**: Track the decline in market volatility from previous high levels - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the reduction in market turnover rates [10][13] **Evaluation**: The market activity factors suggest a calmer market environment with reduced trading intensity [10][13] Commodity Market Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Commodity Trend Strength **Construction Idea**: Evaluate the trend strength across different commodity sectors [25][28] **Construction Process**: - **Sector Analysis**: Identify strong trends in energy and black metal sectors, and weaker trends in non-ferrous metals and agricultural products [25][28] **Evaluation**: The factor highlights sector-specific trend strength variations, with energy and black metals showing robust trends [25][28] - **Factor Name**: Basis Momentum **Construction Idea**: Measure the momentum of basis changes across commodity sectors [25][28] **Construction Process**: - **Sector Basis Analysis**: Track the highest basis momentum in non-ferrous metals and rapid declines in black metals [25][28] **Evaluation**: The factor reflects significant basis momentum differences across sectors, indicating varied market dynamics [25][28] - **Factor Name**: Commodity Volatility **Construction Idea**: Monitor the volatility levels across commodity sectors [25][28] **Construction Process**: - **Sector Volatility Metrics**: Evaluate the consistently high volatility across all commodity sectors [25][28] **Evaluation**: The factor suggests persistent uncertainty in commodity markets [25][28] - **Factor Name**: Commodity Liquidity **Construction Idea**: Assess the liquidity conditions across commodity sectors [25][28] **Construction Process**: - **Sector Liquidity Metrics**: Measure stable liquidity levels across all sectors [25][28] **Evaluation**: The factor indicates steady liquidity conditions in commodity markets [25][28] Option Market Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility Factors **Construction Idea**: Analyze implied volatility trends in major indices [32] **Construction Process**: - **Indices Analysis**: Track slight increases in implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Volatility Curve**: Compare far-month and near-month implied volatility differences - **Skewness Metrics**: Evaluate skewness advantages of put options over call options [32] **Evaluation**: The factors reveal market concerns for small-cap stocks and neutral sentiment for large-cap stocks [32] Convertible Bond Market Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Premium **Construction Idea**: Assess valuation levels and trading activity in the convertible bond market [36] **Construction Process**: - **Premium Metrics**: Measure the average premium levels, slightly above the historical median - **Low Premium Bond Count**: Track the rebound in the number of bonds with low premiums - **Market Turnover**: Evaluate the increase in overall market turnover [36] **Evaluation**: The factors indicate stable valuation levels and improved trading activity in the convertible bond market [36] Factor Backtesting Results - **Market Style Factors**: - Size preference: Large-cap dominant [10][13] - Value preference: Value stocks dominant [10][13] - Volatility: Declining [10][13] - **Market Structure Factors**: - Industry dispersion: Increased [10][13] - Industry rotation: Faster [10][13] - Trading concentration: Reduced [10][13] - **Market Activity Factors**: - Volatility: Declining [10][13] - Turnover: Reduced [10][13] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - Trend strength: Sector-specific variations [25][28] - Basis momentum: Sector-specific variations [25][28] - Volatility: High across sectors [25][28] - Liquidity: Stable across sectors [25][28] - **Option Market Factors**: - Implied volatility: Slight increase [32] - Skewness: Put options advantage [32] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - Premium levels: Stable, slightly above median [36] - Low premium bond count: Rebound [36] - Turnover: Increased [36]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is stabilizing after the tariff impact, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding to around 3300, although the momentum for further increases is weakening [2] - The report highlights a shift in market sentiment due to potential easing of tariff confrontations by the U.S., leading to a rebound in U.S. stock indices [2][4] - The report suggests that the low-volatility strategy has shown strong performance during recent market fluctuations, but the upward momentum is diminishing [3][5] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The report ranks the strategies as follows: Enhanced Equity Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy [3] - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy has accumulated excess returns during the recent volatile market, demonstrating its defensive attributes [5] - The Enhanced Equity Strategy is expected to gain traction as the market environment improves, with a focus on undervalued companies [5][6] Fund Performance Tracking - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of 0.716% this week, while the Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy achieved a return of 1.086% [11] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy yielded a return of 0.030%, outperforming the benchmark [11] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy rebounded with a return of 2.913%, indicating potential for future growth in the U.S. market [6][11] Fund Strategy Construction - The report emphasizes the need for a diversified fund selection approach to meet varying investor risk preferences and market conditions [22] - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund aims to provide stable returns while minimizing volatility, suitable for risk-averse investors [26] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund focuses on global diversification, leveraging trends in technology and economic recovery [21][29]

New Stock Issuance - Tian Gong Co., Ltd. issued shares at a price of 3.94[1] - Ze Run New Energy issued shares at a price of 33.06[1] Rights Issues and Trading Alerts - ST Xin Chao has a tender offer period from April 8, 2025, to May 7, 2025[1] - The second tender offer period for ST Xin Chao is from April 23, 2025, to May 22, 2025[1] - The last trading day for Pu Li Tui is in 14 trading days[1] - The last trading day for Pu Li Zhuang Tui is also in 14 trading days[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Multiple stocks are flagged for severe abnormal fluctuations, including Dongfang Tong and Ningbo United[1] - A total of 14 stocks are noted for significant price volatility, with specific links to their announcements provided[1] Additional Trading Information - Various stocks have upcoming announcements and trading alerts, including ST Hua Peng and Bei Ding Co., Ltd.[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each stock mentioned, ensuring transparency and accessibility for investors[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides several ETF strategy indices constructed with the help of ETFs and tracks the performance and positions of these indices on a weekly basis. These indices aim to obtain excess returns relative to the market through different strategies and models [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **ETF Strategy Index Last Week's Performance**: - **HuaBao Research Large - Small Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index**: Last week's index return was 0.46%, the benchmark was CSI 800 with a return of 0.59%, and the excess return was -0.14% [12]. - **HuaBao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index**: The index return was 0.75%, the benchmark was CSI 800 with a return of 0.59%, and the excess return was 0.15% [12]. - **HuaBao Research Quantitative Balance Art ETF Strategy Index**: The index return was 0.28%, the benchmark was SSE 300 with a return of 0.38%, and the excess return was -0.11% [12]. - **HuaBao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index**: The index return was 0.28%, the benchmark was CSI 800 with a return of 0.59%, and the excess return was -0.32% [12]. - **HuaBao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index**: The index return was 1.55%, the benchmark was CSI All - Share Index with a return of 1.10%, and the excess return was 0.45% [12]. - **HuaBao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index**: The index return was -0.10%, the benchmark was ChinaBond Aggregate Index with a return of -0.08%, and the excess return was -0.02% [12]. 3.2 HuaBao Research Large - Small Cap Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. The model outputs signals weekly to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions accordingly to obtain excess returns [13]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 16.35%, the excess return in the recent month was 0.58%, and the excess return in the recent week was -0.14%. The position was 100% in the SSE 300 ETF [13][16]. 3.3 HuaBao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on the exposure of ETFs to 9 major Barra factors to obtain returns exceeding the market. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [16]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 18.06%, the excess return in the recent month was 3.02%, and the excess return in the recent week was -0.32%. The position was 100% in the Dividend Low - Volatility ETF [16][21]. 3.4 HuaBao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - and long - term fundamental dimensions, the tracking of short - term market trends, and the analysis of the behaviors of various market participants. It uses valuation and congestion signals to prompt industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [20]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 0.74%, the excess return in the recent month was 0.92%, and the excess return in the recent week was 0.15%. The positions included 21.03% in the Agriculture ETF and 18.93% in the Home Appliance ETF [20][23]. 3.5 HuaBao Research Quantitative Balance Art ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses a multi - factor system including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical aspects, and investor behavior factors to construct a quantitative timing system for trend judgment of the equity market. It also builds a prediction model for the large - small cap style of the market to adjust the position distribution in the equity market and comprehensively obtains excess returns through timing and rotation [23]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return since 2024 was 1.99%, the excess return in the recent month was 2.40%, and the excess return in the recent week was -0.11%. The positions included various ETFs such as the CSI 1000 ETF, Enhanced 500 ETF, etc. [23][26]. 3.6 HuaBao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It tracks and mines hot - spot index target products in a timely manner based on strategies such as market sentiment analysis, industry major event tracking, investor sentiment and professional views, policy and regulatory changes, and historical deduction. It constructs an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot - spots in a timely manner to provide investors with references for short - term market trends and help them make more informed investment decisions [26]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return in the recent month was 2.74%, and the excess return in the recent week was 0.45%. The positions included the Real Estate ETF, Hong Kong Stock Consumption ETF, etc. [26][30]. 3.7 HuaBao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy Principle**: It uses bond market liquidity indicators and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is lower than a certain threshold, it reduces the position of long - duration bonds in the bond investment portfolio to improve the long - term return and drawdown control ability of the portfolio [30]. - **Performance**: As of April 25, 2025, the excess return in the recent month was 0.17%, and the excess return in the recent week was -0.02%. The positions included the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, Policy Financial Bond ETF, etc. [30][34].

2025 年 04 月 27 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 落实"先手"政策，充实"后手"储备 ——2025 年 4 月政治局会议解读 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 华宝证券 1/9 策略周报 相关研究报告 束？ —策略周报》2025-04-06 2、《A 股情绪有所降温，等待新催化 — 策略周报》2025-03-23 3、《风格切换了？ —策略周报》2025- 03-16 4、《"两会行情"来临，如何应对？— 策略周报》2025-03-02 5、《春季躁动已至，科技领衔 —策略周 报》2025-02-09 投资要点 中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议。通过对比发现，此次政治局会议与以 往相比更加侧重于"积极应对关税影响"。总体有七大重点：1）正视外部关税 冲击，做好积极应对；2）二季度尽快落实已出台"先手"政策，增加"后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, with the strong performance of the A-share market, fixed-income + funds with equity exposure performed well, showing a trend that the higher the equity position, the better the overall performance. Meanwhile, pure bond products experienced significant drawdowns due to multiple factors. QDII bond funds rose driven by the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of short-term US bond yields [3]. - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, with opportunities in the medium and short - end. The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the convertible bond market has certain differences in views [35][37][39]. Summary According to the Directory 1.固收型公募基金2025Q1季报数据解读 Performance - In Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds with equity exposure performed well, and the higher the equity position, the better the performance. Pure bond products had significant drawdowns, and passive index bond funds performed worse than medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds. QDII bond funds rose [3]. - The average Q1 2025 reinstated unit net value growth rates of different types of funds are as follows: convertible bond funds 2.72%, international (QDII) bond funds 2.02%, flexible allocation funds 1.09%, partial debt hybrid funds 0.45%, hybrid bond funds (secondary) 0.39%, money market funds 0.34%, hybrid bond funds (primary) 0.29%, short - term pure bond funds 0.19%, medium - and long - term pure bond funds - 0.10%, enhanced index bond funds - 0.17%, passive index bond funds - 0.26%, REITs - 0.29% [5]. Scale - As of the end of Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds received significant capital inflows, with secondary bond funds having the fastest scale growth [6]. Leverage - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the overall fund leverage showed a downward trend [8]. Duration - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the fitted durations of pure bond funds all showed a downward trend [11]. Equity - related Position Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income funds with equity exposure all showed a downward trend. The changes in stock positions were divergent, with the stock positions of primary and secondary bond funds with relatively low position centers increasing, while those of convertible bond funds with relatively high position centers decreasing [15]. Stock Industry Changes (Active) - The top five industries with increased holdings are non - ferrous metals, steel, commerce and retail, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The top five industries with reduced holdings are transportation, construction, coal, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals [18]. Individual Stock Heavy - holdings - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by market value are Zijin Mining, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Yili Group, China CITIC Bank, and Haier Smart Home [20]. - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by the number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, Luxshare Precision, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, and Yili Group [21]. Individual Stock Increases - The top stocks with increased market value in Q1 2025 are Zijin Mining, China CITIC Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, etc. The top stocks with an increased number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [23]. Individual Stock Decreases - The top stocks with reduced market value in Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Postal Savings Bank of China, PetroChina, etc. The top stocks with a reduced number of holding funds are China Shenhua, CNOOC, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc. [25][26]. Convertible Bond Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the convertible bond holdings of the fixed - income funds decreased slightly. The funds generally reduced their holdings of bond - biased convertible bonds and increased their holdings of balanced convertible bonds [27]. - Compared with Q4 2024, the industries with the largest increase in holdings in Q1 2025 are basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and electronics. The industries with the largest decrease in holdings are banks, transportation, and automobiles. Fixed - income + funds are overweight in basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and machinery compared with the CSI Convertible Bond Index [29]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds rated between A+ and AA+. They moderately reduced credit quality to select individual bonds after the overall valuation of convertible bonds increased [31]. 2. 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点汇总 Short - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, especially with possible supportive monetary policies, the capital market may become more liquid. Structurally, they are optimistic about the certainty opportunities in the medium and short - end [35]. Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that with increasing external uncertainties, the internal economic momentum needs continuous fiscal and monetary policy support. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, and the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Some fund managers advocate active trading to increase returns, while others are optimistic about coupon opportunities [37]. Fixed - income Funds with Equity Exposure - Stock assets: The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the mid - term repair trend of fundamentals, leading stocks with strong competitiveness, stable patterns but significantly compressed valuations, as well as the allocation value of dividend assets and technology growth [39]. - Convertible bond assets: There are differences in views on the convertible bond market. On one hand, as the convertible bond market adjusts with the stock market, the previous high valuations have improved, and the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the absolute price and relative valuation of convertible bonds are still at a high level, and some fund managers mainly allocate to bond - biased convertible bonds [39]. - Pure bond assets: They still have good allocation value. It is expected that the upward space of medium - and short - term interest rates is limited in Q2 2025, and the volatility of long - term interest rates may increase. Credit bonds are considered the main investment direction [39]. High - position Convertible Bond Enhancement Funds - Most fund managers believe that the convertible bond market has returned to a reasonable valuation. Structurally, they focus on diversified investment and select investment opportunities that are in line with the market trend and benefit from policies [42]. QDII Bond Funds - Global uncertainties and disturbances may continue. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, and the market may not fully price in the risks. In Q2, US Treasury bonds may decline under recession trading, but there is a high probability of two - way fluctuations in the short term. Credit allocation should focus on high - grade, medium - and short - duration bonds [43][44][45]. Public REITs - Rental housing: The overall performance remained stable in Q1 2025, with small fluctuations in occupancy rates [46]. - Industrial parks: Market demand continued to be under pressure, with occupancy rates of most industrial park REITs falling below 80% [47]. - Consumption: The performance of consumer infrastructure projects was stable, with occupancy rates generally above 90% [48]. - Transportation: There was significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some projects recovering and others performing poorly [49]. - Warehousing and logistics: There was an obvious "quantity - for - price" phenomenon, with occupancy rates remaining high but rents decreasing, leading to a slight decline in operating income [50]. - Energy and environmental protection: The performance of different underlying assets was differentiated [51].