证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 09 月 24 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】美联储降息落地，全球大类 资产向何处去？》2024-09-19 《【粤开宏观】经济恢复继续承压，亟需增 量政策支持》2024-09-14 《【粤开宏观】逆周期政策仍需发力，增量 货币政策"箭在弦上"——8 月金融数据 点评》2024-09-14 《【粤开宏观】大类资产配置研究（一）： 当前国内资产的宏观交易主线及未来价格 走势》2024-09-08 《【粤开宏观】如何理解城投"退平台"与 声明市场化经营主体？》2024-09-05 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】924 一揽子金融政策的 深意：稳地产、稳股市、稳经济 摘要 9 月 24 日上午，中国人 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%[1] - This is the first rate cut since the Fed began its tightening cycle in March 2022[1] - The rate cut is primarily preventive, aimed at mitigating recession risks amid slowing economic growth and cooling labor markets[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. CPI growth for August was 2.5%, marking the lowest increase since March 2021, and has declined for five consecutive months[1] - Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, below the expected 160,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[1] - The Fed revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast down from 2.1% to 2%[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in November and December, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for 2024[3] - The Fed's confidence in achieving inflation targets has increased, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2024 adjusted down to 2.3% from 2.6%[3] Group 4: Impact on Global Assets - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cut cycles, U.S. Treasuries and gold generally performed well, while equities faced downward pressure during crisis-driven cuts[4] - The stock market's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with equities typically rising during preventive cuts and falling during crisis cuts[4] Group 5: Implications for China - The Fed's rate cut opens up more room for China's monetary policy, potentially leading to further rate cuts domestically[6] - The easing of U.S. monetary policy may support Chinese exports and stabilize the RMB against the dollar[6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 09 月 14 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】逆周期政策仍需发力，增量 货币政策"箭在弦上"——8 月金融数据 点评》2024-09-14 《【粤开宏观】大类资产配置研究（一）： 当前国内资产的宏观交易主线及未来价格 走势》2024-09-08 《【粤开宏观】如何理解城投"退平台"与 声明市场化经营主体？》2024-09-05 《【粤开宏观】当前宏观政策面临的两大 "叙事陷阱"》2024-09-01 《【粤开宏观】如何看待产业外迁与企业出 海？——出口系列研究之二》2024-08-29 宏观研究 需增量政策支持 【粤开宏观】经济恢复继续承压，亟 摘要 今年以来，我国经济面临短期总需求不足和中长期新旧动能转换阵痛的双重 压力，经济分别受到三大支撑和三大拖累。支撑方面，一是出口超预期回暖 及韧性，二是设备更 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 09 月 14 日 宏观研究 金融数据点评 【粤开宏观】逆周期政策仍需发力， 增量货币政策"箭在弦上"——8 月 摘要： | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2024 年 09 月 08 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：原野 执业编号：S0300523070001 电话：15810120201 邮箱：yuanye_zb@ykzq.com 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】如何理解城投"退平台"与 声明市场化经营主体？》2024-09-05 《【粤开宏观】当前宏观政策面临的两大 "叙事陷阱"》2024-09-01 《【粤开宏观】如何看待产业外迁与企业出 海？——出口系列研究之二》2024-08-29 《【粤开宏观】中国式现代化的财税改革逻 辑》2024-08-28 《【粤开宏观】数字经济时代财税体系面临 的挑战与发展趋势》2024-08-28 宏观研究 价格走势 【粤开宏观】大类资产配置研究（一）： 当前国内资产的宏观交易主线及未来 摘要： 今年以来，国内资本市场整体呈现"债牛股熊"的格局，背后的交易逻辑高 度一致，即微观主体信心不足，追 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2024 年 09 月 05 日 投资要点 宏观研究 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：徐凯舟 执业编号：S0300523060001 电话：16600041632 邮箱：xukaizhou@ykzq.com 分析师：牛琴 执业编号：S0300523050001 电话：13681810367 邮箱：niuqin@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】当前宏观政策面临的两大 "叙事陷阱"》2024-09-01 《【粤开宏观】如何看待产业外迁与企业出 海？——出口系列研究之二》2024-08-29 《【粤开宏观】中国式现代化的财税改革逻 辑》2024-08-28 《【粤开宏观】数字经济时代财税体系面临 的挑战与发展趋势》2024-08-28 《【粤开宏观】注册制改革的评估与建议》 2024-08-26 【粤开宏观】如何理解城投"退平台" 与声明市场化经营主体？ 摘要 自 2023 年 7 月 24 日中央政治局会议提出"制定实施一揽子化债方案"以来， 中央及各部委多次强调要" ...

证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2024 年 09 月 03 日 投资要点 分析师：李兴 执业编号：S0300518100001 电话：010-83755576 邮箱：lixing@ykzq.com 研究助理：刘莎 电话：15625156877 邮箱：liusha@ykzq.com 最近一年行业相对走势 -32% -24% -15% -7% 1% 9% 23/09 23/12 24/03 24/05 24/08 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源 近期报告 《【粤开医药】2024H1 业绩前瞻:整体持 续承压，局部延续分化》2024-08-05 《【粤开医药月报】医保谈判来临，关注 ADC、PD-1、 小 分 子 抑 制 剂 等 品 种 进 度》2023-11-02 《【粤开医药】医疗器械系列报告（四） 体外诊断篇：并驱争先，前景广阔》 2023-10-24 医药生物 【粤开医药】医药行业业绩表现及影 响因素分析——2024 年上半年医药 行业分析 截至 8 月 31 日，A 股 496 家医药上市公司 2024 上半年业绩报告发布完毕， 我们结合行业经济数据全面分析医药板块 2024 上半年运行情况，并对下半 ...

Industry Migration Trends - China's export share of 305 product categories declined by more than 1 percentage point from 2015 to 2023, with resource-intensive and labor-intensive industries being the most affected[14] - Australia's mineral material export share increased by 18.45 percentage points from 2015 to 2023, surpassing China to become the world's largest exporter in 2022[17] - Vietnam's export share in garments, footwear, hats, and woven products increased by 2.0, 8.3, 3.7, and 2.9 percentage points respectively from 2015 to 2023[19] New Wave of Corporate Globalization - The second wave of Chinese corporate globalization, starting in 2021, is characterized by companies in the automotive, machinery, and electrical equipment industries, with 2023 overseas revenue reaching 859.6 billion yuan, a 33.5% increase[29] - The number of non-financial overseas enterprises increased by 1,483 in 2023, reaching 7,913, with non-financial outbound direct investment amounting to 130.13 billion yuan[25] - The automotive industry's overseas revenue in 2023 was 859.6 billion yuan, accounting for 22.1% of total revenue, a 3 percentage point increase from the previous year[29] Challenges and Risks - The risk of industrial "hollowing out" is a concern if key industrial chain segments are not retained, with China's manufacturing share of GDP declining by 5.9 percentage points from 2007 to 2023[60] - The employment pressure in industries such as textiles, footwear, and hats has increased, with the number of employees in large-scale enterprises dropping from 4.495 million in 2015 to 2.315 million in 2022[64] - Trade protectionism and geopolitical risks are intensifying, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods since 2018, leading to a 7.4 percentage point decline in China's share of U.S. imports[49] Policy and Strategic Responses - China is promoting high-level opening-up, opposing unilateralism and trade protectionism, and supporting the development of global value chains[65] - The government is simplifying outbound investment procedures and providing tax incentives, export credit insurance, and other support measures to facilitate corporate globalization[66] - Efforts are being made to enhance the resilience and security of industrial chains by increasing R&D investment and addressing key technological bottlenecks[66]

2024 年 08 月 29 日 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】如何看待产业外迁与企 业出海？——出口系列研究之二 摘要 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Current Macro Policy Challenges - The focus on real GDP growth has led to a disconnect between macro data and micro perceptions, weakening the urgency of growth stabilization policies, with real GDP growing 5% while nominal GDP only increased by 4.1% in the first half of the year[3] - Macro policies are often stigmatized by terms like "flooding the market," limiting their effectiveness; the public's perception of past strong stimulus measures has narrowed current policy space[3][4] Group 2: Economic Transition and Demand Issues - China's economy has shifted from "supply shortage" to "demand shortage," with inflation pressures changing from "easy to rise, hard to fall" to "easy to fall, hard to rise" as demand becomes the limiting factor[4][16] - The effectiveness of policies has diminished; the same level of stimulus that was once considered strong is now perceived as weak due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics[4][20] Group 3: Recommendations for Policy Adjustment - A restructuring of macro control objectives is necessary, emphasizing nominal GDP growth alongside real GDP targets to enhance public understanding and acceptance of policies aimed at boosting income[5][25] - Fiscal policy should focus more on expenditure growth rather than deficit rates to effectively implement counter-cyclical adjustments, with a suggestion to break the 3% deficit limit if necessary[5][26] - Monetary policy should prioritize real interest rates, with the average loan rate at 3.7% in Q2 2024, while the actual interest rate, adjusted for inflation, stands at 4.4%, indicating a need for further monetary easing[5][29]