证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 投资建议：全球领先的半导体封测厂商，维持"优于大市"评级。 由于贸易摩擦对下游需求带来不确定性，及继续加大先进封装研发投入，我 们下调公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润至 18.41/23.71/28.66 亿元（前值为 22.42/27.37/32.41 亿元），对应 2025 年 8 月 25 日股价的 PE 分别为 38/29/24x，维持"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；新产品开发不及预期；国际关系变化等。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 29,661 | 35,962 | 40,244 | 44,639 | 48,749 | | (+/-%) | -12.1% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1471 | 1610 | 1841 | 2371 | 2866 | | (+/-%) | -54.5% | 9. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in accessory and harness businesses, with semiconductor contributions providing additional growth. The accessory business is entering a replacement cycle, while the semiconductor segment is expanding into wafer-level packaging and panel-level packaging [3][4] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 1.5 billion, 2.2 billion, and 3.8 billion respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3] Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the main revenue is projected to be 5.8455 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with a net profit of 858.7 million yuan, up 29% [1] - In Q4 2024, the main revenue reached 1.76 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 330% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, marking a substantial increase from the previous year [1] Business Segment Performance - The accessory business generated 1.84 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 70.45%, with a gross margin of 75.93% [2] - The harness connector ultrasonic equipment business achieved 0.81 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 352.37%, with a gross margin of 59.71% [2] - The semiconductor ultrasonic equipment segment reported 0.47 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 195.66%, with a gross margin of 56.65% [2] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 39.82 [4] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5.81 billion yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.46 [6][4] - The expected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 47.43%, 41.89%, and 39.65% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Blue Arrow Electronics reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, attributed to weak demand in the consumer electronics market and prolonged customer inventory adjustments [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 713.06 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.19% compared to 736.58 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.11 million yuan, down 74.11% from 58.37 million yuan in the previous year [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 10.89 million yuan, reflecting a 74.31% decline from 42.40 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 50.14% to 139.04 million yuan, compared to 92.61 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 0.08 yuan, down 77.14% from 0.35 yuan in 2023 [3]. - The total assets at the end of 2024 were 1.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.24% from 1.92 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders were 1.53 billion yuan, down 2.61% from 1.57 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. Operational Insights - The company faced pressure on product prices due to a decline in gross margin, which fell by 7.66% to 7.97% [2][3]. - Increased investment in research and development and smart manufacturing was noted, impacting short-term profits [2]. - The company optimized its period expenses, resulting in a decrease in the expense ratio by 1.1% to 6.82% [2]. Strategic Focus - Blue Arrow Electronics is committed to deepening its focus on the semiconductor discrete devices and integrated circuit packaging sectors, particularly in third-generation semiconductor power devices and automotive-grade products [2][4]. - The company has successfully established a digital, intelligent, and automated production system throughout the packaging process, enhancing its capabilities from 4-inch to 12-inch wafer packaging [4]. - The company aims to develop high-end products and expand its high-end customer base, striving to become a leading packaging enterprise in the industry [5]. Recent Developments - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 139 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed to 7.29 million yuan, a 12.23% improvement [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is the third-largest OSAT manufacturer globally and the largest in China, with significant growth in revenue and profit driven by the consolidation of Shengdi Semiconductor [1][5] - The company is expected to see increased revenue contributions from Shengdi in 2025, with a planned fixed asset investment of 8.5 billion RMB to enhance production capacity [5] - The company has established strong partnerships with leading clients in various sectors, including automotive electronics and high-performance computing, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 35.962 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.24%, and a net profit of 1.610 billion RMB, up 9.44% year-on-year [5][11] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.335 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.4%, while net profit was 203 million RMB, up 50.4% year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 41.89 billion RMB, 47.08 billion RMB, and 51.90 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.013 billion RMB, 2.371 billion RMB, and 2.732 billion RMB [5][11] Market Demand and Client Segmentation - The demand from downstream clients is showing varied trends, with significant growth in computing and automotive electronics, both exceeding 50% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [5] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 indicates that communication electronics accounted for 44.8%, consumer electronics 24.1%, and computing electronics 16.2% [5] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic packaging and testing sector, with ongoing investments in new facilities and acquisitions to strengthen its market position [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.12 RMB, 1.33 RMB, and 1.53 RMB, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.1, 24.7, and 21.4, respectively [5][11]

Financial Performance Overview - The total revenue of the company reached 9.559 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.27% from 8.514 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 48.0016 million yuan in 2023 to 32.5146 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 32.26% [1] - The non-recurring net profit also fell from 21.3833 million yuan to 16.2348 million yuan, down 24.08% [1] Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter, total revenue was 2.597 billion yuan, an increase of 4.83% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders showed a loss of -39.9401 million yuan, a decline of 232.06% [2] - The non-recurring net profit was also negative at -48.4746 million yuan, down 247.95% year-on-year [2] Key Financial Indicators - Gross margin was 6.9%, a decrease of 14.75% year-on-year [7] - Net margin was 0.28%, down 49.69% year-on-year [7] - Operating expenses accounted for 3.83% of revenue, an increase of 11.73% [7] - Earnings per share were 0.1 yuan, a decrease of 33.33% [7] Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable stood at 3.164 billion yuan, representing 9730.78% of the latest annual net profit [4] - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 1.173 billion yuan, an increase of 30.24% year-on-year [4] - The ratio of cash to current liabilities was only 36.47%, indicating potential liquidity risk [4] Main Business Composition - The revenue from liquid crystal display modules was 6.374 billion yuan, accounting for 66.69% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 8.69% [8] - Revenue from camera-related products was 2.82 billion yuan, making up 29.50% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 4.42% [8] - Other revenues totaled 365 million yuan, representing 3.82% of total revenue, with a gross margin of -5.07% [8] Industry Outlook - Despite global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, the consumer electronics market is gradually recovering [5] - Global smartphone shipments reached 1.22 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7% [5] - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness through technological innovation and expand its semiconductor packaging and testing projects [5]

本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存在不确定性、 尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。 投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 佛山市蓝箭电子股份有限公司 FOSHAN BLUE ROCKET ELECTRONICS CO.,LTD. （佛山市禅城区古新路 45 号） 招股意向书 （海口市南宝路 36 号证券大厦 4 楼） 创业板投资风险提示 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 保荐人（主承销商） 佛山市蓝箭电子股份有限公司 招股意向书 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断发行人的投资价值，自主作出投资决策，自行承担 股票依法发行后因发行人经营与收益变化或者股票价格变动引致的投资风险。 1- ...

创业板投资风险提示 本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存在不确定性、 尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资者面临较大的市场风险。 投资者应充分了解创业板的投资风险及本公司所披露的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 佛山市蓝箭电子股份有限公司 FOSHAN BLUE ROCKET ELECTRONICS CO.,LTD. （佛山市禅城区古新路 45 号） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 免责声明：本公司的发行申请尚需经深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序。本招 股说明书不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之用。投资者应当以正式公告 保荐人（主承销商） 的招股说明书作为投资决定的依据。 （注册稿） （海口市南宝路 36 号证券大厦 4 楼） 佛山市蓝箭电子股份有限公司 招股说明书（注册稿） 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根 ...