证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 27 日 稳楼市政策继续发力，等待基本面筑底改善 建材行业定期报告 中游制造/建材 本周（2025/5/19-2025/5/25）建材动态：水泥市场需求减弱，价格持续回 落；浮法玻璃价格呈下行趋势，整体需求偏弱；玻纤中，无碱粗纱市场价格 延续稳中小降，电子纱市场价格稳定。消费建材板块，政策托底需求释放， 行业整合驱动高质量发展。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 96 | 1.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 761.8 | 0.9 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 696.7 | 0.9 | | 元） | | | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.6 1.5 -1.5 相对表现 0.7 1.0 -8.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 May/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 Apr/25 (%) 建材 沪深300 相关报告 1、《建材行业定期报告—降准降息 推进稳楼市，"好房子"时代头部品 牌受益》2025-05-12 2、《建材行 ...

从高频数据看 5月消费和外贸形势 显微镜下的中国经济(2025年第19期) 相关报告 5 月以来,汽车销量保持较快增长,房地产销售同比降幅收窄,外贸继续"抢 证券研究报告| 宏观定期报告 2025年05月26日 □ 汽车销量继续保持较快增长。根据乘联会数据,除 5月第一周可能受假期因 素影响之外,5月第二周和第三周乘用车当周日均销量同比均保持较快增 长。其中,第二周日均销量为 60896 辆,同比增长 30%,第三周日均销量 为 51175 辆,同比增长 14%,好于 4 月同期水平。补贴政策对汽车销售的 刺激效果继续发酵。 □ 30 城商品房成交面积周同比降幅收窄。进入 5月,排除长假因素的扰动, 30 城商品房销售形势有所好转。近两周成交面积回到 190 万平方米以上, 同比降幅从 4 月底部的-21.7%收窄至上周的-4.4%。房地产销售同比增速继 1、《等待破局 -- 宏观与大类 资产周报》 2025-05-25 2、《政策不会短视—显微镜下 的中国经济(2025年第 18 期）》2025-05-19 3、《央国企动态系列报告之 39 -- 多家央企制定并购重组规 划,通信等央企带动分红提 升》 20 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that Sanofi Pharmaceutical has set a new record for the highest upfront payment in the License-out of domestic innovative drugs, receiving $1.25 billion from Pfizer for the exclusive rights to develop, produce, and commercialize the dual-specific antibody SSGJ-707 globally, excluding mainland China [4][12][15] - The potential total transaction amount for this deal could reach $6.05 billion, which is over 43 billion RMB at current exchange rates, indicating a significant milestone for the domestic innovative drug industry [12][15] - The report emphasizes the growing international recognition of Chinese innovative drugs, as evidenced by this record-breaking deal, which reflects the increasing competitiveness of China's drug development capabilities on a global scale [15][16] Group 2 - The report discusses Google's comprehensive upgrade of its AI ecosystem, introducing the Google AI Ultra subscription service, which integrates the best AI models to enhance productivity across various sectors such as film, finance, and healthcare [16][19] - Google also announced significant updates to its core search functionality, launching an "AI Mode" that integrates conversational AI responses into search results, aiming to adapt to changing user behaviors and competition from AI-driven search services [25][26] - The Computex 2025 event showcased six major highlights in the AI industry, including advancements in generative AI, humanoid robots, and the development of next-generation technologies, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI applications [33][39] Group 3 - The report identifies five key sectors for short-term investment focus, including robotics, self-sufficiency, domestic demand, precious metals, and innovative drugs, suggesting a strategic approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [52][55] - It also outlines a long-term investment strategy centered around technological cycles, emphasizing the importance of AI advancements, domestic supply chain independence, and the transition to carbon neutrality across various industries [56] Group 4 - The report notes that the global stock market experienced mixed performance, with healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities sectors performing well, while information technology, energy, and real estate sectors lagged [4][57] - It highlights the importance of monitoring regulatory developments, particularly the recent measures introduced by the State Administration for Market Regulation to address "involution" in competition, which could impact various industries [57][58]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 26 日 从高频数据看 5 月消费和外贸形势 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 19 期） 频率：每周 5 月以来，汽车销量保持较快增长，房地产销售同比降幅收窄，外贸继续"抢 出口"。 汽车销量继续保持较快增长。根据乘联会数据，除 5 月第一周可能受假期因 素影响之外，5 月第二周和第三周乘用车当周日均销量同比均保持较快增 长。其中，第二周日均销量为 60896 辆，同比增长 30%，第三周日均销量 为 51175 辆，同比增长 14%，好于 4 月同期水平。补贴政策对汽车销售的 刺激效果继续发酵。 30 城商品房成交面积周同比降幅收窄。进入 5 月，排除长假因素的扰动， 30 城商品房销售形势有所好转。近两周成交面积回到 190 万平方米以上， 同比降幅从 4 月底部的-21.7%收窄至上周的-4.4%。房地产销售同比增速继 续明显回落的可能性下降。 出口集运价格指数底部回升。5 月以来，NCFI、SCFI 和 CCFI 逐步从底部 环比回升。过去三周，NCFI 周环比增速分别为 2.4%、6.5%和 9.0%，环比 增速不断加快。SCFI 周环比分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of 89 CNY, while the current stock price is 71.97 CNY [3]. Core Views - The new management team, led by Chairman Jiang Zongxiang, has outlined a strategic plan focusing on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the southern market [1][6]. - The company is optimistic about achieving its growth targets for the second quarter and the full year, driven by summer promotional activities [1]. - Qingdao Beer is adapting to new industry trends, entering a new operational cycle, and is confident in its long-term growth prospects [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections show a decline in 2024 to 32,138 million CNY, followed by a recovery to 33,278 million CNY in 2025, representing a 4% growth [2][14]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 5,843 million CNY in 2024 to 6,504 million CNY in 2025, reflecting an 11% growth [2][14]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to rise from 4,345 million CNY in 2024 to 4,830 million CNY in 2025, also an 11% increase [2][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.54 CNY in 2025, up from 3.19 CNY in 2024 [2][14]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its product lineup to meet consumer demands for personalization and health, focusing on mid-to-high-end products [6]. - Qingdao Beer is prioritizing its fresh beer strategy and the importance of the southern market, planning to optimize resource allocation and product offerings in that region [6]. - The company is exploring non-beer business opportunities, including the development of yellow wine and whiskey, to create new growth avenues [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the performance comparison benchmarks of domestic active bond funds. It analyzes the benchmark settings of various sub - types of active bond funds and their deviations in actual operations. After the release of the "Action Plan", some bond funds have adjusted their performance comparison benchmarks. The report also studies the correlation between funds and benchmarks, tracking errors, and excess returns [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction On May 7, 2025, the CSRC issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Public Funds", emphasizing the importance of performance comparison benchmarks. The report, as the second in the series, will analyze the benchmark settings and actual operation deviations of domestic active bond funds [9]. 3.2 Active Bond Fund Performance Comparison Benchmark Characteristics - **Generalized Active Bond Fund Sample Selection**: As of May 7, 2025, 4191 generalized active bond funds in existence and with performance comparison benchmarks were selected as samples, with a total scale of 9.05 trillion yuan. The samples include 7 types of funds, and the medium - long - term pure - bond funds have the largest number and scale [9][10][12]. - **Performance Benchmark Composition Method**: The performance comparison benchmarks of active bond funds have various forms, mainly including single bond indexes or weighted composites of different indexes. The component indexes can be classified into 6 major categories, and the bond index can be further divided into 5 sub - types, while the stock index can be divided into 9 sub - types [13]. - **Performance Benchmark Commonly Used Indexes**: The top ten "main benchmark indexes" of medium - long - term pure - bond funds are mainly indexes compiled by ChinaBond. For example, the number of funds with ChinaBond - Composite Full Price (Total Value) Index as the main benchmark index is 964, accounting for 52.56%. The main benchmark indexes of convertible bond funds are mainly convertible bond indexes, with CSI Convertible Bond Index being the most used. The main benchmark indexes of fixed - income enhanced funds are mainly A - share market indexes such as CSI 300 Index [36][41][50]. - **Comparison of Commonly Used Index Clusters**: The ChinaBond index system is compiled by the Central Government Bond Depository Trust & Clearing Co., Ltd., and the CSI index system is compiled by CSI Index Co., Ltd. The component bond listing locations, remaining maturities, and credit ratings of ChinaBond and CSI indexes are different [54][57]. - **Weight Distribution of "Main Benchmark Indexes"**: For most active bond funds, the weights of ChinaBond - Composite Full Price (Total Value) Index and ChinaBond - Composite Wealth (Total Value) Index are mainly in the range of 90 - 100% for medium - long - term pure - bond funds, mixed bond - type first - level funds, and mixed bond - type second - level funds. The weights of equity indexes in the performance comparison benchmarks of mixed bond - type second - level funds, convertible bond - type funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds are relatively concentrated [62][66]. 3.3 Fund Performance and Benchmark Correlation and Other Analyses - **Correlation Analysis between Active Bond Funds and Their Benchmarks**: From 2022 to 2025, convertible bond - type funds, short - term pure - bond funds, medium - short - term pure - bond funds, medium - long - term pure - bond funds, and partial - debt hybrid funds have relatively high correlations with their performance comparison benchmarks, while mixed bond - type first - level funds and mixed bond - type second - level funds have relatively low correlations [72][73]. - **Tracking Error and Excess Return of Funds Relative to the Benchmark**: The average tracking error of pure - bond funds is less than that of products with embedded options. Among fixed - income enhanced bond funds, first - level bond funds have lower tracking errors, second - level bond funds and partial - debt hybrid funds are relatively close, and convertible bond funds have the highest and most volatile tracking errors. Most pure - bond funds can outperform the benchmark in most years, and the average outperformance is within 2%. Among fixed - income enhanced funds, partial - debt hybrid funds have relatively high average excess returns [3][78]. - **Distribution of Fund Types with Significant Underperformance against the Benchmark**: Pure - bond funds have relatively small deviations from the benchmark and a low proportion of significant underperformance. The performance of fixed - income enhanced funds is related to the selected time interval and the performance of the equity market. In the long - term, active bond funds have the ability to obtain positive excess returns relative to the benchmark, but there are significant performance differences within each type of fund [3].

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 26 日 守正出奇，构建有概率优势的均衡组合 东方红周云投资风格分析 周云，投资框架以内在价值为基础，结合标的在产业周期和市场周期中所处的 位置并综合考量人性的变与不变，构建有概率优势的均衡组合。权益仓位中枢 稳定，仓位择时效果较好。板块配置均衡，行业相对分散，在消费、医药、 TMT 板块上择时收益能力较强。坚守价值，偏好大中盘股票，长期保持均衡 成长风格。个股投资方面，适度分散，多板块贡献选股收益。选股数量多且不 追逐热点，整体换手率偏低。 *风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表 现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 季燕妮 S1090525040002 jiyanni@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 基金经理：基金经理周云，清华大学生物学博士，现任东证资管权益投资决 策委员会委员、公募权益投资一部总经理、基金经理。曾任东证资管业务总 部研究员，东证资管行业研究员、投资主办人。截至 2025Q1 ...

根据招商基础化工数据库统计的 256 个产品价格，周涨幅排名前 5 的产品分 别为：丙烯酸（+10.79%），DEG（+4.56%），活性染料（+4.55%），丁 腈橡胶（+3.99%），对硝基氯化苯（+3.92%）。周跌幅排名前 5 的产品分 别为：液氯（-16.67%），甲酸（-8%），四氯乙烯（-7.22%），新戊二醇 （-7%），三氯甲烷（-6.81%）。 根据招商基础化工数据库统计的 75 个产品价差，周涨幅排名前 5 的产品价 差分别为：PX（石脑油制）价差（+234.31%），丙烯（甲醇制）价差 （+89.21%），乙烯价差（+55.08%），丙烯酸价差（+29.9%），PTA 价差 （+27.07%），周跌幅排名前 5 的产品分别为：三聚磷酸钠价差（- 19.68%），PA6 价差（-18%），丁二烯（碳四制）价差（-13.11%），甲 醇价差（-11.58%），聚羧酸减水剂单体价差（-8.2%）。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 26 日 丙烯酸、活性染料价格涨幅居前，建议关注化工新材料 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 5 月第 4 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 26 日 即时零售行业深度报告 即时零售万亿高成长赛道，平台模式三国杀开拓长期增量 消费品/商业 即时零售行业高速成长空间广阔，以"快"为核心优势，相比电商满足消费者 差异化价值创造增量市场，我们预计即时零售 2030 年将超过 1.7 万亿规模， 未来五年行业 CAGR 约 20%。分模式来看，平台模式具有更强的流量优势和 盈利能力，规模空间更大，预计 2030 年将超过万亿规模。格局方面，平台模 式下美团闪购、京东秒送、饿了么&淘宝闪购三足鼎立，从 CBD 维度对比来 看，美团闪购强于流量心智及配送能力，我们看好美团闪购竞争优势及长期增 长空间，以及京东秒送、淘宝闪购业务价值，同时看好自营模式下供应链壁垒 深厚的叮咚买菜，推荐美团、叮咚买菜、京东、阿里巴巴。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；即时零售渗透进度不及预期。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | | | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | | | | | 132 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending May 26, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: The issuance volume of local government bonds increased this week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance volume was 248.5 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 105.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 142.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The proportion of long - term bond issuance decreased. The 10 - year bonds had the highest issuance proportion (33%), and bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounted for 75%, a decrease from last week [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: Special refinancing bonds worth 25.1 billion yuan were issued this week. As of now, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.6291 trillion yuan [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to last week, reaching 11bp. The 30 - year bonds had the highest spread at 18.4bp. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms narrowed [1][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: The funds raised from new special bonds in 2025 have mainly been allocated to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.6% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in April, the total planned issuance volume for the second quarter is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan, with 672.7 billion yuan and 855.1 billion yuan planned for May and June respectively [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: The 30 - year and 15 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads. The 30 - year and 15 - year bonds had relatively high spreads of 20.1bp and 18.9bp respectively. The 30 - year bond's secondary spread was at a high historical percentile of 89% over the past three years [4][35]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased this week. Anhui, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had relatively high turnover rates. The total trading volume was 436 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.86%. Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Anhui had large trading volumes of 42.6 billion yuan, 40.4 billion yuan, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, and their turnover rates were all above 1.6% [5][40].