证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 万达电影（002739.SZ） 25 年业绩同比扭亏为盈，行业复苏进一步巩固领先地位 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计全年归属上市公司股东净利润 4.8 亿元至 5.5 亿元，上年同期亏损约 9.40 亿元，同比扭亏为盈；预计扣非归母净利润 3.2 亿元至 3.9 亿元，上年同期亏损 10.99 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：11.63 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2112 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2100 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 24.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 24.4 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 3.6 | | ROE（TTM） | -5.2 | | 资产负债率 | 66.5% | | 主要股东 | 北京万达投资有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 20.64% | 公司点评报告 ❑ 风险提示：投资进展不及预期；IP 开发不及预期风险；影片表现不及预期等。 财务数据与估值 股价表现 % 1m 6m 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 本季营收与毛利率均超指引，公司已与三家客户签订长协 西部数据 FY26Q2 跟踪报告 TMT 及中小盘/电子 西部数据（WDC.O）近日发布 FY26Q2 财报，营收 30.17 亿美元，同比+25%/ 环比+7%，毛利率 46.1%，同比+7.7pcts/环比+2.2pcts。综合财报与交流会议 信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 4、与三家大客户签订长协确立采购量与价格，HAMR 产品将于 2027 年初量产。 1、FY26Q2 营收与毛利率均超指引预期，nearline 硬盘需求持续强劲。 FY26Q2 营收 30.17 亿美元，同比+25%/环比+7%，超指引上限（28-30 亿美元）， 主要系市场对 nearline 硬盘需求强劲拉动；毛利率为 46.1%，同比+7.7pcts/环 比+2.2pcts，超出此前指引上限（44%-45%），毛利率改善主要系持续向高容 量硬盘迁移与制造工厂及整个供应链中的严格成本控制。EPS 为 2.13 美元，超 出指引上限（1.73-2.03 美元）。 2、云与客户端业务同环比均增长，产品位元出货量持续增加 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the industry, with significant revenue and gross margin growth expected in the upcoming quarters [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported FY26Q2 revenue of $3.025 billion, a year-over-year increase of 61% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 31%, significantly exceeding previous guidance [1][28]. - Gross margin for FY26Q2 was 51.1%, up 18.6 percentage points year-over-year and 21.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, also surpassing prior guidance [1][29]. - The company anticipates that demand will continue to significantly exceed supply in all end markets beyond 2026, driven by rising product prices and robust demand across all segments [2][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q2 revenue was $3.025 billion, exceeding guidance of $2.55 to $2.65 billion, primarily due to price increases across all segments [1][28]. - Non-GAAP EPS for FY26Q2 was $6.20, far exceeding the previous guidance of $3.00 to $3.40 [1][30]. - The company expects FY26Q3 revenue to be in the range of $4.4 to $4.8 billion, with a gross margin of 65% to 67% [3][32]. Market Segments - Data Center: Revenue reached $440 million, up 74% year-over-year and 64% quarter-over-quarter, with strong demand expected to continue [2][22]. - Edge Computing: Revenue was $1.678 billion, a 63% year-over-year increase and 21% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by the AI adoption and device upgrades [2][23]. - Consumer Market: Revenue was $907 million, up 61% year-over-year and 31% quarter-over-quarter, with a focus on high-end products [2][24]. Strategic Developments - The company extended its partnership with Kioxia until December 31, 2034, ensuring stable product supply and a total payment of $1.165 billion for manufacturing services [4][31]. - The company is in discussions with NVIDIA regarding additional data demand, estimating an extra 75 to 100 EB of data demand by 2027, which could double the following year [4][41]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a structural transformation in the NAND market driven by AI, with data centers expected to become the largest end market for NAND products [21][35]. - The company is focusing on long-term agreements with customers to ensure supply stability and predictable returns, moving away from short-term transactional models [21][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.69-1.86 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 79%-97% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of 480-650 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 65%-124% [1]. - The growth in profits is primarily driven by new game releases, including "杖剑传说 (Mainland Version)" and "问剑长生 (Mainland Version)," which have significantly contributed to incremental profits [5]. - The company has a robust dividend policy, planning to distribute at least 50% of its annual net profit as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027 [5]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues of 6.19 billion yuan in 2025, 7.01 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.50 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 68%, 13%, and 7% respectively [6][12]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 6.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18.9 [6][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 33.2% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [12]. - The asset-liability ratio is expected to remain low at 19.0% in 2025, reflecting a solid financial position [12].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 26 年首月发放 182 款版号，大幅超过 25 年月均 148 款 游戏行业 1 月版号点评 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 1 月 26 日，国家新闻出版署公布了 177 款国产版号、5 款进口版号。177 款国产 版号中，其中"移动"类 101 款，"移动-休闲益智"类 64 款，"移动、客户端"10 款，"客户端"2 款；5 款进口版号中，"移动"4 款，"客户端"1 款。同时还发布 了 14 款游戏的审批变更信息。 ❑ 风险提示：游戏上线时间不及预期；流水不及预期等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 160 | 3.1 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2251.6 | 2.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2071.2 | 2.0 | 行业指数 相关报告 1、《传媒互联网行业周报—阿里千 问做出重大更新，泡泡玛特持续回购》 2026-01-29 2、《互联网行业周报—春节 AI 应用 活动陆续上线，关注大厂布局情况》 2026-01-29 3、《AI 应用研究感思 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a recommendation for investment based on strong fundamentals and expected performance exceeding market benchmarks [41]. Core Insights - The company achieved record revenue and profit in Q4 2025, driven by strong demand for memory products, particularly in the HBM segment, with revenue reaching 32.83 trillion KRW, a 66% year-on-year increase [1][19]. - The demand for DRAM and NAND products remains robust, with significant price increases contributing to improved profitability [19]. - The company plans to expand production capacity and enhance its product offerings, particularly in AI memory solutions, to meet growing market demands [25][26]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was 32.83 trillion KRW, up 66% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69% [1][19]. - Net profit for Q4 2025 reached 15.2 trillion KRW, reflecting a 90% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - For the full year 2025, revenue is projected at 97.15 trillion KRW, a 47% increase, with net profit expected to be 42.95 trillion KRW, a 117% increase [1][22]. Market Outlook - The server market is expected to see high double-digit growth in 2026, driven by structural demand for server DRAM and enterprise SSDs [3][24]. - PC and mobile device markets may experience short-term adjustments due to rising component costs and weakened consumer confidence [3][24]. - Demand growth for DRAM and NAND is anticipated to remain above 20% and 19%, respectively, in 2026 [3][24]. Product Development and Capacity Expansion - The company is accelerating the transition to 1c nm DRAM and 321-layer NAND technologies, with plans to expand production capacity at its facilities [25][26]. - HBM4 production is underway, with the company aiming to meet customer demand through advanced packaging technologies [4][26]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to increase significantly to support capacity expansion and infrastructure development [25][27]. Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a new shareholder return policy, including an additional cash dividend of 1,500 KRW per share and plans to repurchase and cancel 15 million shares [27][28]. - The total cash dividend for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to be 3,000 KRW per share, amounting to approximately 2.1 trillion KRW in total [27][28].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 29 日 固德威（688390.SH） 增持（首次） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：92.48 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 243 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 243 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 22.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 22.5 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 11.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 0.4 | | 资产负债率 | 66.3% | | 主要股东 | 黄敏 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 30.8% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 50 113 126 相对表现 49 99 102 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 固德威 沪深300 公司是分布式光储逆变器领先者，拥有完善的产品矩阵与全球化的营销体系。 自 2023 年下半年以来，受到欧洲户储去库影响，经营阶段性承压。2025 年 Q3 开始，受澳洲户储补贴推动，公司经营得到改善。近期，澳洲再度加码户储补 贴； ...

事件：当地时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日，美联储召开议息会议，宣布暂停降息。 本次会议中鲍威尔略显鹰派，强调通胀上行风险和就业下行风险都在减弱，下 次降息的门槛有所提高。但鲍威尔同时提到关税带来的通胀影响大概率年中见 顶，该变化本身有利于后续宽松。换言之，Q2 后关税基数切换有利于新主席 上任后的宽松操作，这仍是美联储政策独立的体现。 在面对本人是否留任、美联储换帅、法院调查等敏感问题时，鲍威尔均表示无 可奉告，这也展现了其希望美联储能平稳过渡的态度。此外，近期美日汇率波 动引发关注，尽管贝森特表示美国始终奉行强势美元政策且不会干预美元兑日 元汇率，但特朗普本人还是支持弱美元，市场表现亦给出了答案。 展望下一个定价节点，美联储新主席人选如何影响未来市场？基于候选人的最 新政策立场，从鸽到鹰应当是哈塞特、里德尔、沃勒、沃什。目前呼声较高的 里德尔属于市场派，若当选则市场预期更早降息和更多资产购买支持，在 4 人 中应当对长债美债最为友好。短期利好美股、利空美元，中期尽管风险资产会 有波动，但 Fed Put 持续存在。沃什最为鹰派，更注重纪律性和美联储独立 性，支持缩表。短期利空美债，利好美元，美股震荡。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988.HK) [1][4][6] Core Views - The report highlights the competitive advantage and profit improvement potential of Alibaba Cloud, especially in light of recent price increases by major overseas cloud service providers like AWS and Google Cloud due to a supply-demand imbalance driven by surging AI demand [1][3] - Alibaba Cloud, as the leading player in the AI cloud market, is expected to benefit from the industry's pricing trends and maintain strong growth and profitability [3][4] Financial Projections - For FY2026-2028, the projected non-GAAP net profits are estimated at 92.4 billion, 134.4 billion, and 180.9 billion respectively, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [4] - The report anticipates a target price of HKD 194 per share based on a 10x PE for the Chinese e-commerce group and a 10x PS for the cloud intelligence group [4][6] Financial Data Summary - The main revenue for FY2024 is projected at 941.2 billion, with a growth rate of 8%, and expected to reach 1,320.9 billion by FY2028 [5][11] - Adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is expected to decline to 101.3 billion, followed by a strong recovery in FY2027 and FY2028 [5][11] - The report indicates a net profit margin of 8.5% for FY2024, improving to 10.8% by FY2028 [12]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 钨价持续新高，国产头部刀具企业迎来历史性机遇 刀具行业点评 中游制造/机械 3、《商业航天系列研究（一）—国 家战略与产业趋势共振，看好商业航 天 2026 年投资机会》2026-01-16 2025 年以来，钨精矿价格持续走高，中小公司则面临成本压力甚至减产停工， 日韩企业普遍缺乏钨资源供应保障，而国产头部企业凭借调价、库存等优势实 现业绩增长，后续需求或将集中转向仍有强大接单和供货能力的国内头部企业。 刀具行业过去格局分散，价格竞争激烈，在钨价影响下，正迎来格局重塑的历 史性机遇，重点推荐。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 478 | 9.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 5565.9 | 4.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4801.0 | 4.6 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 12.8 35.2 61.9 相对表现 11.8 21.1 38.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Feb/25 May/25 ...