Core Insights - The June CPI turned positive year-on-year at 0.1%, indicating a recovery in consumer prices, while the PPI continued to face downward pressure at -3.6% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [13][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, indicating a recovery in the engineering machinery sector [1][24]. - The semiconductor industry showed a positive trend with global semiconductor sales increasing year-on-year, despite a decline in smartphone shipments [3][32]. Industry Overview Consumer Demand - The CPI improvement was driven by rising prices in fresh fruits and vegetables, with fresh fruit prices increasing by 6.1% year-on-year, and fresh vegetable price declines narrowing significantly [15][24]. - Household appliances saw a positive CPI growth of 1.0%, supported by ongoing consumer promotion policies [16][24]. - The demand for gold jewelry remained strong, with prices for 925 silver and foot gold increasing by 18.0% and 37.8% year-on-year, respectively [16][24]. Resource Products - Coal prices have risen, with significant increases in the prices of Qinhuangdao mixed coal and Shanxi coking coal, indicating a tightening supply [25]. - The report noted a mixed performance in the steel sector, with construction steel transaction volumes increasing while prices for some steel products remained under pressure [25]. Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.43% week-on-week, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Index declined, indicating a divergence in regional semiconductor performance [26]. - Prices for DDR4 and DDR5 DRAM memory showed a downward trend, with 8GB DDR4 prices decreasing by 1.15% to $5.00 [29][31]. - The smartphone market faced challenges, with May shipments declining by 21.20% year-on-year, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer electronics demand [32]. Midstream Manufacturing - The report highlighted an increase in the sales of various types of excavators and loaders, with year-on-year growth expanding, suggesting a recovery in the construction and engineering machinery sectors [1][24]. - The report also noted a decline in prices for certain components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating ongoing price adjustments in the renewable energy sector [25]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate market showed signs of weakness, with a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [25]. - The report indicated a net withdrawal in the money market, with a decrease in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [25].

Group 1: AI Industry Development - The AI industry follows a "technology-hardware-terminal-application" development model, with a shift from communication networks to large model theoretical research[1] - Domestic chip manufacturers are accelerating technological breakthroughs, enhancing the application ecosystem, and driving the deep integration of generative AI across multiple industries[2] - The global large model technology is entering a deep competitive phase, with differentiated development paths between China and the US[2] Group 2: AI Chip and Hardware Investment - AI chips are the cornerstone of the large model industry, characterized by long R&D cycles, high technical barriers, and significant investment costs[2] - China has established a basic layout in GPU, ASIC, and FPGA chips, meeting standards for various application scenarios[2] - Investment opportunities exist in the AI industry chain, including optical modules, power distribution technology, and liquid cooling technology[2] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The domestic AI industry is experiencing a strategic transformation from "software-hardware decoupling" to "full-stack collaboration"[2] - The market for AI software ecosystems is still dominated by foreign open-source frameworks, but domestic companies are accelerating their AI ecosystem layout[2] - The procurement rate of domestic large models in key industries like finance and telecommunications has exceeded 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include slower-than-expected technological iterations, industry growth rates, and potential policy risks[2] - The need for high-quality data and standards in model training remains a challenge for the domestic AI industry[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [1][7]. - The long-term outlook for refrigerants is positive, with the company positioned to benefit as a leader in the fluorochemical industry [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 29.355 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2][11]. - Estimated net profit for 2025 is 3.943 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 101% compared to the previous year [8][12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.7 times [8][12]. Production and Sales Performance - The company's main products, including fluorinated refrigerants, have shown stable growth in production and sales, contributing to increased gross margins and profit [7]. - Revenue from refrigerants is expected to reach 6.086 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant price increase of 61.88% year-on-year [7]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the price of refrigerants has been recovering due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants and strong downstream demand [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment as global temperatures rise, leading to increased demand for refrigerants [7].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 生益科技（600183.SH） 订单满载 Q3 望延续高景气，高速材料放量份额持续提升 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：1）公司子公司江西生益科技二期项目首组产线于 2025 年 6 月顺利连线 调试并投产，为公司新增覆铜板月产能 50 万平方米，二期项目投资总额达 13 亿元，全面投产后，可实现年产 1800 万平方米高端覆铜板及 3400 万米商品粘 结片的新增产能。2）近期下游 AI-PCB 厂商纷纷加大产能扩张力度：胜宏科技 国内惠州厂房四 6 月中旬投产，同时增资泰国胜宏 2.5 亿美元用于算力产能建 设；沪电股份拟未来 6 年投资 36 亿元用于黄石基地扩产；方正科技拟定增 19 亿用于 AI 算力类 HDI 板产业基地建设。我们结合 PCB 行业动态及公司最新业 务进展情况更新观点如下： ❑ Q3 需求及产能稼动率将延续 Q2 势头，涨价策略及订单结构调整 Q2 完成并 在 Q3 执行。公司 Q2 对下游客户完成涨价策略，Q3 下游头部 PCB 厂商订单 能见度高，目前公司的接单和稼动率将延续 Q2 势头，AI 服务器、汽车 HDI ...

行业指数 证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 估值低位，关注行业竞争格局变化及贸易政策影响 快递物流行业 2025 年中期策略报告 周期/交通运输 本篇报告回顾了快递物流板块 2025 年上半年基本面变化及市场表现，维持对快 递物流行业的"推荐"投资评级。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3109.7 | 3.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2869.4 | 3.5 | % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -0.1 5.9 18.7 相对表现 -3.3 0.4 1.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《航空行业 2025 年中期策略报告 —持续关注行业供需再平衡进程》 2025-07-08 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—OPEC+ 拟加大 8 月增产幅度，快递价格有望 边际修复》2025-07-06 3、《交运基础设施行业 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 7 月 8 日 行业 ETF 净流入，宽基 ETF 持续净流出 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0708） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金小幅净流出，其中融资资金净流入，ETF 净流出。近 期 ETF 一直延续小幅净流出的状态，细分类别上行业 ETF 净流入，而宽基 ETF 持续净流出。近期 A 股权重板块上涨，市场风险偏好整体回暖，展望 7 月，增 量资金有望继续净流入，融资、私募有望继续活跃，我们认为 7 月偏大盘风格 为主，成长价值或相对均衡。 ❑ 风险提示：经济数据及政策不及预期、海外政策超预期收紧。 专题报告 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 42.51↓ | | ETF 净申购 | -206.57↓ | | 融资净买入 | 126.07↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 854.65↑ | | IPO 融资 | 0.00↓ | | 净减持金额 | 65.93↑ | | 计划减持金额 | 142.95↑ | | 活跃度 | | | 单位 ...

1）特朗普心中可能有一个综合税率底线。4 月上旬特朗普一系列关税政 策变化表明 10%的全球税率可能是当时心中的底线，该底线与贸易平衡有 关，但更多是为了弥补财政收入。4-6 月美国关税收入超 600 亿美元，而 1-3 月仅 288 亿美元，若按 4-6 月线性外推美国今年全年关税收入可能在 2000~3000 亿美元。但 7 月 4 日通过的 OBBBA 给出"10 年 3.4 万亿美 元、26-28 年 1.6 万亿美元"基础赤字需求，对关税维持财政运转提出更 高要求，10%底线关税税率可能会适度上调。 2）关税既是目的也是手段，贸易平衡和保护特定产业两手都要抓。本次 对等关税独立于行业关税，232 调查下的多数行业要么是钢铝、汽车等基 础行业（稳就业、票仓），要么是半导体、药品、关键矿物等重要行业 （产业链安全、制造业回流），从过去几轮行业关税实施情况看，下调概 率较小且只可能对部分盟友国或贸易协定国家给予优惠，表明保护特定产 业优先级很高。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 关税新阶段 —7 月 7 日美国新关税政策点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 7 月 7 日，特 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for profitability recovery in the industry [2]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" campaign aimed at improving overall profitability, particularly in the cement sector, where demand is currently suppressed due to high temperatures and rainy weather [1][10]. - The report highlights a significant increase in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, with a year-on-year growth of 33.3%, reflecting a recovery in investment confidence among real estate enterprises [6][13]. - Price adjustments in the waterproofing materials sector are noted, with leading companies implementing price increases of 1% to 13% across various product categories, indicating a shift towards healthier competition in the consumer building materials market [6][13]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The national average cement price has continued to decline, with a drop of 10-15 CNY/ton in certain regions, while some areas like Jilin and Chongqing have seen price increases of 30-50 CNY/ton [10][22]. - The cement market is under pressure with a current inventory ratio of 76.00%, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [10][22]. - The China Cement Association has initiated measures to address supply-demand imbalances, which are expected to enhance overall industry profitability [10][11]. Float Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing weak price performance, with a national average price of 1174 CNY/ton, down 3.27 CNY/ton from the previous period [11]. - Inventory levels have decreased slightly, with a total of 6.9085 million heavy boxes reported, and production has increased to 110.34 million tons [11][12]. - Despite some replenishment activities in the downstream market, overall demand remains limited, leading to expectations of continued price weakness [11][12]. Fiberglass Industry - The market for non-alkali fiberglass remains stable, with prices around 3700 CNY/ton for high-end products, while electronic fiberglass prices are expected to rise due to tight supply [12]. - The main product G75 in the electronic fiberglass market is priced between 8800-9200 CNY/ton, showing stability compared to the previous week [12]. Consumer Building Materials - The report emphasizes the trend of price increases among leading companies in the waterproofing sector, which is seen as a positive sign for the industry's competitive landscape [6][13]. - Recommendations for investment include companies like Weixing New Materials, Keda Manufacturing, and Mona Lisa, which are positioned well for growth in the current market environment [14][15][16].

招证银行金融数据前瞻 6 月社融货币预测 总量研究/银行 2025 年 6 月，我们预期当月全口径人民币贷款增量 1.80 万亿（同比少增 0.33 万亿元），其中社融口径信贷增量 1.80 万亿（同比少增 0.39 万亿元）。预期 当月社融增量 3.61 万亿，同比多增 0.31 万亿；其中政府债增量 1.40 万亿元， 同比多增 0.55 万亿元。预期社融余额增速 8.7%，环比上月回升 0.02pct；预期 新口径 M1 增速 2.5%，环比上月回升 0.22pct；M2 增速 8.3%，环比上月回升 0.44pct。 ❑ 风险提示：金融让利，息差收窄；经济恢复不及预期，资产质量恶化等。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11334.5 | 12.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10731.4 | 13.1 | 文雪阳 S1090524110001 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.3 22.5 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 7 月 7 日 偏大盘风格为主，成长价值或相对均衡 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202507） 近十年 7 月市场风格相对均衡，大盘风格略占优。央行季度例会提到"用好用 足存量政策，加力实施增量政策"，关注 7 月政治局会议的表述变化。市场交 易和增量资金层面，近期 A 股权重板块上涨，市场风险偏好整体回暖，增量资 金有望继续净流入，融资、私募有望继续活跃。基于以上，我们认为 7 月偏大 盘风格为主，成长价值或相对均衡。 ❑风格展望：偏大盘风格为主，成长价值或相对均衡。进入 7 月后，综合业绩披 露期效应、海外流动性环境变化、增量资金及风格交易热度，我们认为 7 月市 场风格可能整体偏大盘风格为主，成长价值或相对均衡。具体来说，第一，从 历史来看，近十年 7 月市场风格相对均衡，大盘风格略占优。第二，外部流动 性方面，7 月将公布的通胀和就业数据可能导致市场对美联储降息预期形成修 正，对短期市场或有扰动。第三，央行季度例会提到"用好用足存量政策，加 力实施增量政策"，关注 7 月政治局会议的表述变化。第四，市场交易和增量 资金层面，近期在以伊冲突缓和后，A 股 ...