Macro Insights - The macro policy for the second half of the year may involve non-traditional measures, with a focus on price stability and the marginal improvement of asset prices, particularly in equity products [2][32] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive companies to reduce capital expenditures and clear excess capacity, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [3][44] Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is identified as a key driver for a bullish market, with high-quality stocks likely to play a crucial role in pushing indices higher [3][44] - AI is recognized as a core driver of the current technological revolution, creating investment opportunities across multiple industries in the A-share market [3][44] - Key sectors to watch in July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, all showing signs of marginal improvement [3][44] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.09% [5][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10696.10, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [8] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight recovery, while the construction PMI significantly improved to 52.8% due to accelerated infrastructure projects [12][13] - Consumer spending showed mixed results, with significant growth in automobile and home appliance sales driven by government subsidies, while other sectors like clothing and cosmetics remained weak [13][14] Industry Trends - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with declining sales and investment, leading to a negative outlook for related sectors [13][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address price competition and improve product quality, particularly in the durable consumer goods sector [30][44]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 30 8 14 相对表现 26 0 -3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 沪电股份 沪深300 相关报告 沪电股份（002463.SZ） Q2 业绩超预期，拟加码黄石基地扩产，看好中长线 AI 订单承接能力 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：1）公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。2）公司近期公告同意出于黄石沪士未 来经营发展的需求，2025 年 7 月至 2031 年 6 月期间，在不超过人民币 36 亿 元的总投资额度范围内，授权管理层可就潜在项目投资与黄石经济技术开发区 管理委员会进行磋商。我们点评如下： 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：47.25 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1923 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1922 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 90.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 90.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.6 | | ROE（TTM） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [2][5]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve a total revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit estimated at approximately 4.5 billion yuan [1][5]. - The retail revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with GMV and revenue maintaining double-digit growth rates [5]. - The company is increasing investments in its new takeaway business, which is expected to impact short-term profits but will enhance long-term growth and synergy with its core business [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal year 2023, the main revenue is projected at 1,084,662 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 35,200 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 8.34 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 [2][9]. - The target valuation for the stock is set between 133 and 167 HKD, with the current stock price at 125.3 HKD [2][5]. Business Performance - The report anticipates that the retail operating profit margin will remain stable year-on-year, despite increased investment in the takeaway business [5]. - The takeaway business has shown rapid growth, with peak order volumes exceeding 25 million and significant market share in quality takeaway services [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the synergy between its takeaway and e-commerce operations, with cross-selling trends improving in recent months [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 17.7% [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 54.5% [3]. - The projected net profit margin for 2023 is 2.2% [8].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The industrial sewing machine industry exhibits significant cyclicality, with Jack's performance surpassing the industry in each upcycle, establishing itself as a global leader. The company is expected to continue increasing its market share through superior product capabilities and is actively promoting automation and unmanned transformation, indicating substantial growth potential [1][6][9]. Summary by Sections Industrial Sewing Machine Industry: Cyclical Fluctuations and Demand Divergence - The industrial sewing machine industry in China has experienced two phases: a growth phase from 1999 to 2007 and a cyclical phase from 2008 to present. The current cycle began to recover in Q3 2023, with production expected to reach 6.85 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.32% [6][14]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to face pressure in 2025, while overseas markets are expected to remain supported by inventory replenishment and supply chain restructuring [6][24]. Jack's Competitive Positioning - Jack is the global leader in the industrial sewing machine market, with a market share exceeding 30%. The company has successfully implemented a "fast response king" and "over梗 king" product strategy, focusing on high-demand products to enhance efficiency and profitability [6][32][52]. - The average selling price of Jack's industrial sewing machines is projected to rise from 2,195.6 yuan/unit in 2021 to 2,481.7 yuan/unit in 2024, contributing to an increase in gross margin from 23% to 31.28% during the same period [6][38]. Future Trends and Innovations - Jack is at the forefront of the trend towards automation and unmanned production in the sewing industry, addressing labor shortages and enhancing digital transformation. The company has launched a digital integrated solution and is exploring unmanned solutions to facilitate machine replacement for human labor [7][55][60]. - The introduction of high-end AI sewing machines and robotic systems is expected to further solidify Jack's competitive edge and open new growth avenues [7][61]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected total revenue for Jack is expected to reach 71.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 9.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [8][9]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 30.9 in 2023 to 17.1 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation as the company continues to grow [8][9].

- Model Name: GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy; Model Construction Idea: The key to the GARP strategy is to find the relationship between valuation and growth. Investors often do not give stocks high valuations based on the high growth of current performance, but based on expectations of future performance growth rates[1][5] - Model Construction Process: 1) Calculate the quarterly performance acceleration (NISD) and price-to-book ratio (PB) for each stock in the stock pool at each cross-section[6] 2) Exclude stocks with PB<0 in the cross-section and calculate the percentile rankings of the two indicators within the industry[6] 3) Calculate the difference between the percentile rankings of NISD and PB for each stock, and select the top 10% stocks with the largest difference to form the PB-NISD strategy stock pool[6] 4) Add new conditions to improve strategy performance: consider the net profit growth rate of the previous quarter and analyst consensus expectations[6] - Model Evaluation: The strategy aims to perform consistently in both growth and value-dominated markets[5] Model Backtest Results - GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy, Annualized Return: 15.47%, Sharpe Ratio: 0.57, Excess Annualized Return: 14.30%, Excess Sharpe Ratio: 1.40 (CSI 500)[2][9] - GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy, Annualized Return: 23.13%, Sharpe Ratio: 0.78, Excess Annualized Return: 22.34%, Excess Sharpe Ratio: 2.00 (CSI 1000)[2][9] - GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy, Annualized Return: 27.46%, Sharpe Ratio: 0.93, Excess Annualized Return: 22.34%, Excess Sharpe Ratio: 2.33 (CNI 2000)[2][9] Model Performance in 2025 H1 - GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy, Excess Return: 9.98%, IR: 0.78 (CSI 1000)[2][18] - GARP Quantitative Selection Strategy, Excess Return: 14.98%, IR: 1.31 (CNI 2000)[2][18]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Global central banks are in a cautious easing phase, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having cut rates eight times since June 2024, bringing rates down by 25 basis points as of June 2025, indicating the end of the easing cycle is near [7][11] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time as of June 19, 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to potential rate cuts based on economic data [13][14] - The People's Bank of China continues to implement a "counter-cyclical, unconventional, and moderate easing" strategy, having lowered the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.10% to 3.00% in May 2025, indicating a supportive stance for market liquidity [16][18] Group 2: AI Applications and Market Opportunities - AI applications in the B-end market are gradually expanding, with companies like Duolingo reporting a 49% year-on-year increase in daily active users (DAU) due to AI-driven personalized learning [21][22] - Applovin has significantly improved advertising matching efficiency through its AI-driven platform, achieving a revenue increase of 40.25% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [27][29] - Salesforce's AI tool, Agentforce, processed over 380,000 conversations with an 84% resolution rate, showcasing strong client acceptance and the potential for AI applications in business operations [30][31] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The valuation of small-cap stocks is showing signs of recovery, with the PE-TTM for the Guozheng 2000 and ChiNext indices at 29.41x and 31.08x respectively as of June 19, 2025, indicating they are at historical high percentiles [68][69] - Recommended stocks include Blue Sky Technology, which has shown stable growth in its core business, and Spring Wind Power, which has reported strong earnings growth and is advancing its globalization strategy [73][78] - Companies benefiting from AI applications, such as Wuzhou Xinchun and Jieshun Technology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [7][73]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the capital market is stabilizing at the bottom, with multiple funding sources supporting bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential upward breakthrough in equities. The brokerage sector is expected to lead the market rally, recommending early positioning and waiting for breakout opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 6,179.1 billion, with a circulating market value of 5,901.2 billion, representing 1.8% and 7.2% of the total market, respectively [2]. - The performance of the non-bank financial sector shows a 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month absolute performance of 9.0%, 16.0%, and 59.5%, respectively, with relative performance of 5.8%, 10.5%, and 42.0% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the equity market has stabilized despite initial shocks from U.S. tariffs, with significant institutional investments leading to a recovery. The overall trend remains positive, with major indices showing an average increase of 1.1% as of June 30, 2025 [8]. - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the China Bond Index rising by 1.1% year-to-date as of June 30, 2025 [8]. Business Performance - In Q1 2025, listed brokerages reported total revenues of 1,259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 522 billion, up 78% year-on-year. The brokerage income was 327 billion, reflecting a 43% increase year-on-year [25]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the revenue of self-operated businesses, which reached 486 billion, marking a 46% year-on-year growth [30]. Strategic Directions - The report outlines a shift towards internal consolidation and external breakthroughs, with a focus on wealth management transformation and the integration of financial technology to enhance efficiency [6]. - The investment banking sector is expected to see a marginal recovery in equity financing, particularly benefiting from the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ongoing mergers and acquisitions [6]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the industry will achieve total revenue of 4,741 billion in 2025, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1,825 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to lead the market rally, with specific recommendations for stocks that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and ongoing market trends [6].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" [3][28]. Core Views - The company has been deeply involved in the distributed solar storage industry for many years and is increasing investments in new products and markets following its 2024 IPO. The residential storage business is recovering after a downturn in the second half of 2023, and the commercial storage business is expected to drive new growth due to the promotion of dynamic electricity pricing in Europe [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from Australia's "Cheaper Home Batteries" subsidy program, which has a total scale of AUD 2.3 billion, aimed at reducing upfront costs for residential storage systems [15][7]. - The company has made substantial investments in research and development, with a significant increase in sales personnel and total salary expenses, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product matrix and market reach [7][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to recover from CNY 3,073 million in 2024 to CNY 4,613 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][28]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 204 million in 2024 to CNY 411 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 102% [2][28]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 51.0 in 2024 to 25.3 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [2][28]. Business Performance - The residential storage business is gradually recovering, with European inventory levels returning to normal and emerging markets showing increasing demand [15][7]. - The commercial storage business is expected to see significant growth, particularly in Europe, where the company has established a strong position and is poised to benefit from the introduction of dynamic pricing in Germany starting in 2025 [19][7]. - The company’s sales regions have expanded to over 110 countries, with non-European revenue increasing by over 60% in 2024, indicating successful market diversification [7][8]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 61.32 billion and CNY 70.67 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a gross margin of approximately 34% [28][39]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 is CNY 6.91 billion and CNY 9.22 billion, respectively, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [28][39].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index (CN5082.CNI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index is designed to reflect the market performance of aerospace and aviation industry companies listed on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges [41][42] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: Select A-shares and red-chip enterprises' depositary receipts that meet the following conditions: - Non-ST/*ST securities - Listed for over 1 year (for STAR Market and Beijing Stock Exchange securities) or over 6 months (for other securities) - No major violations or financial reporting issues in the past year - No abnormal price fluctuations during the observation period - Belong to the aerospace and aviation industry under Guozheng's tertiary industry classification [43] 2. **Candidate Pool**: - Calculate the average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume over the past six months for eligible securities - Exclude the bottom 10% of securities ranked by trading volume if the pool exceeds 10 securities [43] 3. **Sample Selection**: - If the candidate pool contains ≤30 securities, all are included - If the pool contains 30<N≤50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10 [43] - If the pool contains >50 securities, select securities covering 85% of free-float market capitalization, rounded to the nearest multiple of 10, capped at 50 securities [43] 4. **Weighting**: Free-float market capitalization weighting [43] 5. **Adjustment**: Regular adjustments occur semi-annually, with temporary adjustments for special cases like delisting or corporate actions [44] **Model Evaluation**: The index is highly focused on the aerospace and aviation sector, with a strong representation of small-cap stocks and high exposure to the defense industry [44][47] Model Backtesting Results - **Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index**: - **Annualized Return**: 6.26% (past five years) [61][62] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.33 (past five years) [61][62] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -55.93% (past five years) [61][62] - **Annualized Volatility**: 34.13% (past five years) [61][62] - **Recent Performance**: 33.78% return in the past year, outperforming other broad-based indices and military-themed indices [64][66] - **Bull Market Elasticity**: Demonstrated strong performance during bull market periods, with gains of 40.56%, 50.90%, and 38.36% in specific intervals [65] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: "Military Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with high exposure to the defense industry, particularly aerospace and aviation [47][55] **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks with significant involvement in defense-related activities, such as aircraft manufacturing, satellite technology, and unmanned systems [47][55] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][55] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor achieves high representation of military-related stocks, with 97% of the index's components belonging to the defense industry [47][55] - **Factor Name**: "Aerospace Exposure" **Factor Construction Idea**: Emphasize stocks within the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify stocks classified under the aerospace and aviation sub-sector [47][60] - Weight stocks based on their free-float market capitalization [43][60] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a high concentration in aerospace stocks, with 51% of the index's weight allocated to this sub-sector [47][60] Factor Backtesting Results - **Military Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 97% of index components belong to the defense industry [47][55] - **Aerospace Exposure Factor**: - **Representation**: 51% of index weight allocated to aerospace stocks [47][60] - **Unmanned Systems Factor**: - **Representation**: Over 12% of index weight allocated to stocks involved in unmanned systems, such as drones [60]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, turning positive from negative; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing[5] - Food CPI continued its downward trend, recording -0.3% year-on-year, primarily due to pork prices dropping by 8.5%, a decrease of 11.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI reached 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in 14 months, supported by consumption policies and a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival, which totaled 855.6 billion yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In May, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with production material prices down by 4.4%[10] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand in the real estate sector and a high base effect from the previous year, with June's PPI drop expanding by 0.3 percentage points, nearing its lowest point of the year[10] - The PPI for June is expected to remain around -3%, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and recent declines in international oil prices[16] Group 3: Future Outlook - For July, CPI is projected to remain around 0.1%, with food and energy prices continuing to exert downward pressure, while core CPI provides some support[15] - PPI is also expected to stay low, around -3%, due to seasonal factors and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, although regulatory measures may provide some price support in key industries[16] - The overall price levels are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and high base effects from the previous year[15]