Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term operational potential [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has deepened its focus on the power supply industry for nearly 30 years, specializing in high-efficiency and high-reliability power supply markets. It has established a solid foundation in the telecommunications sector and is now increasing investments in data center power supply as a strategic business [1][7]. - The company is expected to achieve new growth in the AIDC power supply market, with potential strong profitability if it successfully penetrates overseas markets with its new products [1][7]. - The company has a robust research and development (R&D) capability, with R&D expense ratios significantly increasing in recent years due to investments in new fields, which is expected to improve operational performance in the future [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 1,467 million yuan in 2023 to 922 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,729 million yuan in 2026 and 2,327 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 37% in 2025 and 35% in 2027 [2][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -501 million yuan in 2024, improving to 132 million yuan in 2026 and 353 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of -25.9 in 2024 and 36.8 in 2027 [2][24]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 13 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 10.8 billion yuan [3]. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading supplier of high-reliability and high-power density power products, with applications in critical sectors such as telecommunications, aerospace, military, and railways [7][11]. - The company has a diversified product range, including modular power supplies, customized power supplies, and high-power power supply systems, catering to various industries [17][19]. Growth Opportunities - The rapid development of AI is expected to create significant demand for power supply solutions, presenting opportunities for the company to enter overseas supply chains [7][29]. - The company has a strong customer base and has established long-term partnerships with major domestic and international clients, enhancing its market position [35][36]. - The company is strategically investing in AIDC power supply business, which is anticipated to yield breakthroughs in the near future [37][38]. Recent Developments - The company has implemented a new round of employee stock ownership plans and incentive programs aimed at enhancing team motivation and performance [41][42]. - The company has seen initial success in converting R&D efforts into revenue, with a significant increase in revenue in the third quarter of 2025, marking a turning point in its financial performance [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for several companies, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [2][53]. Core Insights - The swine industry is experiencing a significant decline in pig prices due to an oversupply and seasonal demand weakness, leading to increased losses in the sector [6][10]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is rapidly decreasing, with a notable reduction of 1.1% in October, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in the future [10][14]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a 30% year-on-year growth in October, driven by the release of production capacity from leading companies [10][33]. - The report suggests that the cash flow for low-cost pig farming companies is expected to improve significantly, enhancing their intrinsic value [10][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Losses and Production Capacity - The report notes that pig prices have declined significantly, with the national average price at 11.6 yuan/kg in October, down 34% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [10][14]. - The losses in pig farming have expanded, with self-breeding and purchased piglets showing average losses of 155 yuan and 281 yuan per head, respectively [10][14]. - The production capacity of breeding sows is in a rapid decline, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time since June 2024 [10][14]. Slaughter and Weight Trends - The report indicates a significant increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, with 17.52 million pigs processed in October, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [10][33]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased, with the average weight recorded at 121 kg, down 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [10][49]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong cost advantages and performance reliability, recommending Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group as key investment targets [10][53]. - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group, Dekang Animal Husbandry, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [10][53].

Core Insights - The report indicates an overall improvement in industry sentiment, particularly in resource products, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors, with most metal prices rising and strong performance in the new energy materials market [1][6][12] - The report suggests a potential cyclical recovery in 2026, driven by a resonance between the US and China, and recommends positioning in cyclical sectors during market adjustments [1][12] Industry Overview Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased, indicating positive momentum in the semiconductor sector [28] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen week-on-week, reflecting strong demand driven by AI model iterations and storage needs [24][28] - The October NB LCD shipment volume has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over three months, suggesting a recovery in demand for laptops and displays [28] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, with significant rises in VC, manganese lithium, and other materials, driven by ongoing demand and supply chain optimization [22][26] - The price index for photovoltaic products has decreased week-on-week, indicating potential challenges in the solar energy sector [22][26] - The production of packaging equipment has turned negative year-on-year, reflecting a contraction in this segment [22][26] Consumer Demand - The average price of vegetables and fruits has increased due to seasonal supply constraints and extreme weather conditions, with notable price rises in corn and other agricultural products [19][21] - The film industry has seen a decline in box office revenue, while ticket prices have increased, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer entertainment spending [19][21] Resource Products - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, zinc, and nickel showing upward trends, while coal prices have fluctuated due to weak downstream demand [27] - The average transaction volume of construction steel has increased, reflecting a recovery in construction activity [27] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply dynamics [27] Financial and Real Estate - The report notes an increase in land transaction premium rates and a rise in the area of commercial housing transactions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [27] - The A-share market has experienced a decline in turnover rate and daily transaction volume, suggesting cautious investor sentiment [27] Public Utilities - Natural gas prices in China have decreased, while electricity generation has seen a widening year-on-year decline, indicating challenges in the energy sector [27]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 26 日 近期人民币为何全面走强？对 A 股有何影响？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1126） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大，融资净流出但 ETF 逆势净流入，外 部美国经济数据及美联储官员密集鸽派表态下，美联储 12 月降息预期再度回 升，美元指数回落，我们构建的外资流出压力指标显示外资流出的压力已连续 5 个交易日缓解。往后看，在美联储降息预期和市场继续企稳回升背景下，外资成 交活跃度或有望回升。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金持续流入股票市场， 美联储降息不确定性增强——金 融市场流动性与监管动态周报 （1118）》 资料来源：Wind，招商证券 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 139.99↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 49 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook [2][7] Core Views - Chow Tai Fook's FY26H1 revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 0.1%. The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [6][7] - Strong terminal growth was observed from October 1 to November 18, with same-store sales in mainland China increasing by 38.8%, driven by a 93.9% increase in priced jewelry and a 23.0% increase in gold jewelry [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from rising gold prices in the second half of the fiscal year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - FY26H1 revenue was HKD 389.9 billion, with a breakdown showing mainland China revenue at HKD 321.9 billion (down 2.5%) and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets at HKD 67.9 billion (up 6.5%) [6] - The company closed 611 underperforming stores while opening 8 new flagship stores, focusing on enhancing store quality and optimizing the retail network [6] - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 30.5%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points, while operating profit margin reached a five-year high of 17.5% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 94.001 billion, HKD 98.800 billion, and HKD 104.748 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of HKD 8.707 billion, HKD 9.804 billion, and HKD 10.864 billion [7][8] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a FY26 PE ratio of 17.5X, indicating a favorable valuation [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 10.4 billion yuan, down 72% [1] - The e-commerce segment shows steady growth in monetization rates, with a stable market share in food delivery and potential for improvement in profitability [1][5] - The cloud business exceeded expectations with significant revenue growth driven by strong demand in the AI cloud market, indicating a promising outlook for future growth [1][5] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for FY2024 to FY2028 are 941.2 billion yuan, 996.3 billion yuan, 1,062.5 billion yuan, 1,168.7 billion yuan, and 1,285.6 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, 7%, 10%, and 10% [2][8] - **Adjusted EBITA**: Expected adjusted EBITA for FY2026 is 117.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 32% compared to FY2025 [2][8] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Forecasted Non-GAAP net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 are 106.9 billion yuan, 166.6 billion yuan, and 201.8 billion yuan respectively, with a notable decline of 32% in FY2026 [2][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 5.63 yuan for FY2026, with a PE ratio of 25.5 [2][9] Stock Performance - The stock has shown an absolute performance of 20% over the past 12 months, with a relative performance of -9.8% [4] Valuation - The target price is set at 185 HKD per share, with the current stock price at 158 HKD, indicating potential upside [3][5]

Group 1: International Factors Impacting Chinese Long Bond Rates - International factors are increasingly influential in determining China's long bond rates, especially under more open economic conditions[3] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) identifies a shift in global liquidity dynamics, with non-bank financial institutions becoming the main players in international capital flows since 2008[10] - The BIS financial condition index (FCI) highlights two key factors: the "level factor" reflecting interest rates and the "risk factor" indicating market risk perceptions[11] Group 2: Recent Trends and Implications - Since 2021, the BIS's "level factor" has risen sharply due to inflation and tightening U.S. monetary policy, indicating a significant tightening of financial conditions[12] - The "risk factor" has shown slight tightening since 2021, impacting China's economic conditions, but this effect is expected to ease as major central banks begin lowering interest rates in Q4 2024[12] - A strong U.S. dollar has a negative correlation with China's 10-year government bond yields, with a correlation coefficient of -0.89 from January 2014 to September 2025, indicating that dollar strength significantly influences bond rates[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the small nucleic acid industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [3]. Core Insights - The small nucleic acid industry is entering a critical phase for forward-looking investments, with domestic companies showing significant advantages. The report emphasizes the importance of technological breakthroughs and the evolving landscape of the industry [1][7]. - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a catalytic year for the small nucleic acid industry, with an increase in investable companies and significant advancements in technology [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Opportunities in Small Nucleic Acids - The pharmaceutical investment landscape is closely tied to industry trends, with the small nucleic acid sector entering a multi-dimensional breakthrough era. Historical trends in innovative drug markets indicate that major market movements are driven by technological advancements and subsequent domestic adaptations [11][14]. - The report outlines that the small nucleic acid industry is transitioning towards breakthroughs by domestic companies and is poised for global competition [7][14]. 2. Competitive Advantages of Chinese Companies - The key to small nucleic acid drug development lies in the combination of effective delivery platforms and target identification. Chinese companies are noted for their efficiency in research and development, particularly in the context of established delivery systems [17][28]. - The report discusses the importance of speed and innovation in drug development, emphasizing that Chinese firms excel in these areas, which enhances their competitive edge in the small nucleic acid market [23][28]. 3. Investment Timing and Global Company Analysis - Alnylam is identified as a leading player in the small nucleic acid field, with expectations of profitability by 2025. The company has successfully commercialized several products, leveraging its GalNAc delivery system to establish a strong market position [40][43]. - Arrowhead is also highlighted for its innovative delivery systems and diverse target strategies, aiming to achieve breakthroughs in new therapeutic areas [46][48]. 4. Relevant Investment Targets - Several companies are identified as potential investment opportunities within the small nucleic acid sector: - **Bohua Pharmaceutical**: Noted for its advanced cardiovascular projects and collaboration with Novartis, which enhances its credibility and market position [62]. - **Rebio Biotech**: Recognized for its rapid clinical development of FXI factor anticoagulant drugs, indicating a strong pipeline in treating thrombotic diseases [7]. - **Sengin Biotech**: Focused on developing siRNA drugs for obesity and cardiovascular metabolic diseases, showcasing a commitment to innovative therapeutic solutions [7]. - **Frontier Biotech**: Reported to have promising preclinical data for its complement protein-targeting small nucleic acids [7]. - **Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical**: Established a comprehensive research platform for small nucleic acids, originating from hepatitis B research [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.8 billion (+28.2% YoY) and adjusted net profit of 770 million (+11.7% YoY), with a net profit margin of 13.2% (-2.0 percentage points) [1][6] - Domestic revenue for the company's brand reached 2.91 billion (+19.3% YoY), while overseas revenue was 2.31 billion (+27.7% YoY). TOPTOY revenue surged to 570 million (+111.4% YoY) [1][6] - The company has a robust "1+3" moat strategy, combining a Chinese supply chain, global IP, global design, and global channels, which supports its domestic expansion and high growth in overseas markets [1][6] Financial Performance - The company expects significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 13.84 billion, 16.99 billion, 21.21 billion, 25.13 billion, and 29.27 billion for 2023 to 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 39%, 23%, 25%, 18%, and 17% [2][7] - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow from 2.39 billion in 2023 to 4.34 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 101%, 13%, 10%, 23%, and 18% [2][7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.90 in 2023 to 3.45 in 2027 [2][7] Domestic Market Performance - In Q3, the domestic brand revenue was 2.91 billion, with same-store sales showing high single-digit growth. The company anticipates low double-digit growth in same-store sales for Q4 [1][6] - The company added 102 new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 4,407 stores [1][6] International Market Performance - The overseas brand revenue reached 2.31 billion, with same-store sales showing low single-digit growth. The U.S. market saw revenue growth exceeding 65% [1][6] - The company opened 117 new stores overseas in Q3, with a total of 3,424 stores by the end of the quarter [1][6] TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY brand revenue reached 570 million in Q3, with a same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits and a net increase of 14 stores, totaling 307 stores [1][6]