证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 6 月行业配置关注：产能出清拐点和新消费的崛起 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 6 月） 过去一个月市场在中美经贸摩擦缓和以及降准降息、公募基金改革等政策影响 下，震荡上行，先进制造与内需消费相关行业表现较好。展望 6 月份，外部关税 仍面临不确定性，对国内经济增长带来压力；有待更多政策端的支持实现内部的 稳健增长。行业配置预计主要围绕国内自身发展阶段展开，重点关注产能出清拐 点和新消费的崛起。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶 段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注汽车、有色金属（小金属、贵金属）、 国防军工、商贸零售、美容护理、化学制药等。 【本期关注】产能出清拐点和新消费的崛起 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《5 月行业配置关注：关税冲击 修复与景气改善线索》 《4 月行业配置关注：一季报前 瞻与政策催化》 《3 月行业配置关注：春季行情 的演绎与景气修复的线索》 《2 月行业配置关注：业绩预告 落地后，政策与产业趋势催化下 的行业选择》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索— ...

汽车行业周报 小米 YU7 正式发布，比亚迪欧洲销量首超特斯拉 中游制造/汽车 5 月 18 日至 5 月 24 日，汽车行业整体上涨 1.8%。本周，小米 YU7 正式发布， 全系标配激光雷达、4D 毫米波雷达及 7 颗超透防眩摄像头，支持高阶辅助驾驶 功能，预计将于 7 月正式上市。比亚迪在欧洲的电动汽车销量首次超过特斯拉， 据市场数据，比亚迪4月在欧洲的纯电动汽车销量达到7231辆，同比增长169%， 跃居欧洲电动汽车销量榜前十；相比之下，特斯拉 4 月份在欧洲的新车注册量 则同比下跌 49%至 7165 辆。 ❑ 市场板块行情回顾 本周 CS 汽车+1.8%。本周（5 月 18 日至 5 月 24 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为-0.6%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为-0.7%，创业板涨跌幅为-0.9%。本周各行业 板块部分上涨，其中涨幅居前的行业板块为 CS 综合（+1.9%）、CS 医药 （+1.9%）和 CS 汽车（+1.8%），跌幅居前的板块为 CS 综合金融 （-4.8%）、CS 计算机（-3.0%）和 CS 电子（-2.1%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：汽车行业二级板块部分上涨，其中商用车和乘用车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for gold and suggests focusing on the rare earth magnetic materials sector [1][6]. Core Views - The metal market is shifting towards a neutral stance due to the arrival of the off-season and declining exports, with macroeconomic issues dominating the recent trends [1]. - There is a strong recommendation for investment in gold and related sectors, including autonomous control technologies and materials for robotics and nuclear fusion [1]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,031.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3,749.0 billion [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 1.26% this week, ranking third among sectors, with precious metals showing the highest growth at 5.58% [6]. Price Movements - The report notes a 4.78% increase in molybdenum prices due to tight supply and strong demand from steel companies [6]. - Conversely, silicon metal prices fell by 3.16% due to increased supply and weak demand from downstream industries [6]. Key Metal Insights - Copper inventory increased by 0.79 thousand tons to 139.9 thousand tons, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [6]. - Aluminum inventory decreased by 24 thousand tons, with ongoing concerns about the impact of Guinea's mining rights revocation on alumina prices [7]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose to 3,343 USD/ounce, up 5.0%, driven by concerns over U.S. government debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Silver prices also increased by 3.0% to 33.10 USD/ounce [7]. New Materials and Technologies - The report highlights ongoing developments in controlled nuclear fusion, with significant projects underway globally, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [7]. - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron magnets is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and the strategic value of these metals [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 总量研究/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 5 月 22 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 5 月 22 日） | 新房（5 | 月 | 1 日-5 月 | 22 日） | 二手房（5 | 月 | 1 日-5 月 | 22 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 4 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 4 月 | | 样本城市 | -10% | -收窄 | 9 PCT | 样本城市 | -8% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | 5% | 转正 | 17 PCT | 一线城市 | 16% | +收窄 | -10 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | | | | 二线城市 | -19 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24%, and an adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a net loss of 460 million yuan in the same period last year [1][5] - The gross profit reached 2.539 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.3%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [5][6] - The company’s operational cash flow was 1.302 billion yuan, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [5] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue was 2.807 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, driven by growth in live streaming and membership services [5] - Advertising revenue reached 1.998 billion yuan, a 20% increase, primarily due to growth in performance-based advertising [5] - Mobile gaming revenue surged to 1.731 billion yuan, a remarkable 76% increase, attributed to the strong performance of the exclusive SLG game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [5] - Revenue from IP derivatives and other businesses was 467 million yuan, down 4% year-on-year [5] User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company reported daily active users of 107 million and monthly active users of 368 million, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5] - The company successfully positioned itself as the exclusive bullet screen video partner for the Spring Festival Gala, attracting over 100 million viewers on New Year's Eve [5] - The company continues to focus on high-quality original content, with notable successes in various series and animations [5] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues to reach 30.856 billion yuan, 34.559 billion yuan, and 37.324 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 1.965 billion yuan, 2.856 billion yuan, and 3.696 billion yuan [7][9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.9, 19.9, and 15.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][10]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 智元灵犀 X2 正式开启商业化进程 人形机器人周报 20250525 中游制造/机械 事件 1：智元灵犀 X2 正式开启商业化进程 5 月 22 日，智元机器人重磅宣布：旗下人形机器人灵犀 X2 正式开启商业化进 程，即日起面向全社会招募合作伙伴。这意味着，今年 3 月由"稚晖君"发布、 因"能骑自行车"而出圈的灵犀 X2，终于迈出从实验室走向市场的关键一步。 据介绍，智元将在灵犀产品线上采用 B to B to C 模式，即产品针对消费场景打 造，但不直接对 C 端销售，而是携手生态伙伴共同开发与交付。智元机器人灵 犀业务部总裁魏强对灵犀 X2 的未来表现非常乐观，他表示，灵犀 X2 将在 2025 年下半年实现规模出货，预计 2026 年底出货量将达到"大几千台"。 事件 2：开发造船领域人形机器人的美国初创公司 Persona AI 完 成 2700 万美元（约合人民币 1.95 亿元）Pre-seed 轮融资 美国初创公司 Persona AI 宣布完成 2700 万美元（约合人民币 1.95 亿元） Pre-seed 轮融资，本轮为超 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent rise in US Treasury yields is driven by concerns about US fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations pushed up by US tariff policies, and a weakening demand for US Treasuries. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has caused short - term upward pressure on yields, and the US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May. The demand for US Treasuries has weakened, especially in the long - term bond primary market, leading to a steeper yield curve [2][10][15]. - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. The domestic bond market is mainly driven by domestic demand and is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose [3][24]. - In the bond market trading strategy, the approach of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds. Currently, the new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective, and the new - old bond spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 is expected to widen further [4][27][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Reasons, Outlook, and Impact of the Rise in US Treasury Yields - **Reasons for the Rise in US Treasury Yields** - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has increased market concerns about US debt risks, causing short - term upward pressure on yields [2][10]. - The US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks. The uncertainty of the policy has pushed up the inflation expectations of the US household sector, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May, making it difficult for long - term Treasury yields to decline [2][10]. - The demand for US Treasuries has weakened. The primary market subscription enthusiasm has declined, especially for long - term bonds. As of May 9, the subscription multiple of long - term Treasury bonds in May dropped to 1.97 times from 2.33 times in April, and the weaker long - end subscription sentiment has steepened the yield curve [15]. - **Outlook for US Treasury Yields** - In the short term, US Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at a high level. The high uncertainty of the US tariff policy, persistent inflation expectations, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and weakening demand for US Treasuries make it difficult for yields to decline. However, the pressure for a significant further increase in yields is controllable due to the possibility of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US economy [24]. - **Impact on the Domestic Bond Market** - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose. The domestic bond market is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend [3][24]. 2. Bond Market Trading Strategies - Adopt the strategy of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops [4][27]. - Focus on the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds [4][27]. - The new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective. The 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 has become an active bond after its listing, and its new - old bond spread is expected to widen further as there are still 3 additional issuances planned [4][27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the outdoor apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The outdoor apparel market in China is experiencing high demand and growth potential, with a significant gap in penetration compared to mature markets [1][2] - The market is expected to expand rapidly as international brands enter China, enhancing consumer awareness and driving industry growth [4][67] Industry Overview - The outdoor apparel market in China is projected to grow from CNY 539 billion in 2019 to CNY 1,027 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14% [15][19] - The CAGR for outdoor apparel is expected to increase to 15% from 2025 to 2029 [2][15] - Outdoor clothing accounts for approximately 70% of the outdoor apparel market, with a CAGR of 13.7% from 2019 to 2024 [2][19] - The core product category is jackets and pants, which have a CAGR of 18% from 2019 to 2024 [2][21] Market Structure - The top ten brands in the outdoor apparel market hold a combined market share of 27% as of 2024, indicating a fragmented market with significant growth opportunities for leading brands [3][45] - The competition in outdoor footwear is less intense, dominated by a few key players such as Salomon, HOKA, and ON [3][46] - High-end brands are underrepresented in the Chinese market, with few influential players [3][49] Development Direction - The demand for outdoor apparel is primarily driven by the 25-34 age group, which constitutes over 40% of consumers [4][67] - New international brands are entering the market, including Haglöfs, Norrøna, and Marmot, which are expected to enhance consumer recognition and accelerate market penetration [4][75] - The product focus is shifting towards functional and stylish outdoor apparel, with an increasing emphasis on outdoor+ lifestyle products [4][78] - Online sales channels are experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 20% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing offline sales [2][26] Key Company Changes - Anta Sports has announced plans to acquire Wolf Claw to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio [4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 美国加密市场新政下的历史突破 ——加密资产系列报告之二 5 月，比特币价格突破 11 万美元/枚，创新历史高点，投资者对加密资产行业 信心提升。比特币曾经被认为是"数字黄金" ，但是历史上其与黄金走势并 不一致，甚至出现此消彼长的价格走势，说明比特币并非是对黄金的简单替 代，而是自有其运行逻辑。近期，随着 SEC（美国证券交易委员会）新主席 的上任，美国将迎来加密资产宽松监管时期，该市场即将迎来重大政策调整。 本文将从比特币与黄金的关系与美国 SEC 工作动态两个维度来分析加密资产 市场。 核心观点： 结论与启示： 比特币的避险属性尚未像黄金一样得到大范围认可，主要原因包括市场规模 小、缺乏机构投资者和央行持仓、价格高波动性与情绪驱动以及监管与安全性 不确定，价值贮藏属性尚处于被验证阶段，但比特币去中心化和抗审查特性正 构建另类避险逻辑。 历史上，比特币与黄金价格走势也不尽相同，相关性呈现阶段性变化，两种资 产在功能定位、市场结构和投资者心态层面存在较大差异。2025 年黄金延续传 统避险角色，比特币更多反映监管政策预期与对美宏观经济情绪，二者 ...

国内方面，1）从近期外贸高频数据来看，所谓关税降温后的"抢出口"看似 仍不成立，更接近关税大幅降温后的"出口修复"或此前因高关税导致的挤压 商品的"补出口"；2）5 月 25 日当周上中游开工率整体转弱，看似是提前进 入弱季节性；3）公积金利率下调后一线城市商品房销售走强，成为近期经济 的一大亮点，但二手房交易仍然偏弱；4）资产端：市场或进入平淡期，相对 而言继续看好哑铃型策略和新消费。 海外方面，1）美国 OBBB 法案众议院版本落地，后续仍有较大不确定性。当 下美国财政宽松力度预计将向参议院为代表的宽松派的目标靠拢，但下一届政 府是否能如特朗普所愿选择财政紧缩高度存疑，目前我们看到的数字可能仍然 是被低估的。2）市场会如何定价减税对经济的提振和财政可持续性的担忧？ 若 6 月起美国与部分非美经济体达成贸易共识甚至找到美债"买盘"，美债迎 来配置价值，美股性价比提升。3）日债被抛售是否危机前兆？疫后全球因供 应链冲击通胀抬头，央行 QE 推升资产价格循环被打破，短期风险仍可控、但 康波萧条期最终需要出清破局。 2）市场会如何定价减税对经济的提振和财政可持续性的担忧？始于 4 月 9 日美国对非美关税暂缓带动 ...