Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation for stock price appreciation exceeding the benchmark index by over 20% [2][3]. Core Insights - The demand for MPO (Multi-fiber Push On) products is experiencing high growth driven by AI computing infrastructure, with a trend towards higher fiber counts and density in products. The company is actively developing products with fiber counts exceeding 1000 cores for high-end applications [1]. - The company is positioned well within the Lixun system, with significant growth potential in data communication, AI servers, and automotive cable sectors, particularly following the successful acquisition of Leoni cable business [2]. - The company has a robust global production capacity, with facilities in key regions including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and overseas locations in Vietnam and Mexico, supporting future expansion and customer acquisition [7]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of HKD 10.172 billion, HKD 12.937 billion, and HKD 16.604 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 714 million, HKD 1.208 billion, and HKD 1.701 billion [8][20]. - The report projects a significant increase in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 58%, 69%, and 41% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [21]. - The company’s PE ratios are expected to decrease from 43.3 in 2025 to 18.2 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [21].

证券研究报告| 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 招商证券丨总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20251026） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】二十届四中全会公报解读；【策略】四中全会公报解读和十五五规划 展望；【固收】压缩利差交易结束了吗；【地产】房地产及产业链数据解读； 【银行】H 股银行如何进入港股通；【资配】最新 A 股风格配置及交易信号跟 踪；【ESG】公募基金绿色投资五年演进与展望 q 【宏观 张一平】二十届四中全会公报解读 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会听取和讨论了习近平受中央政治局委托所作的工作报 告，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划 的建议》。习近平就《建议（讨论稿）》向全会作了说明。 "十五五"时期的重要地位。公报指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义 现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具 有承前启后的重要地位。一方面，"十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂 变化，不确定难预料因素增多。另一方面，"十五五"时期我国仍处于战略机 遇期，我国长期向好的支 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to ESG analysis or construction[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on ESG market trends, policy updates, and industry events without discussing specific quantitative methodologies or factor testing[10][17][43] - No quantitative backtesting results, formulas, or performance metrics for models or factors are provided in the report[18][24][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of China-US trade negotiations, which may benefit the shipping sector. It highlights the upward potential of infrastructure stocks and the recovery potential of the express delivery industry [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipping - The report notes a positive atmosphere in the shipping industry due to ongoing China-US trade negotiations, which may favor container shipping. The report indicates that freight rates for the US East and West routes have seen increases of 6.3% and 11.2% respectively [11][12]. - It highlights the potential for increased market share for Chinese shipowners in relevant shipping routes in the medium to long term [17]. 2. Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a significant increase in truck traffic, with 58.12 million vehicles recorded, a 24.7% increase week-on-week. National railway freight volume also increased by 2.3% [18][19]. - The report suggests that leading highway stocks are showing signs of recovery, and it recommends focusing on the potential for dividend stocks in the infrastructure sector [20]. 3. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery in pricing, with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in business volume in September, totaling 16.88 billion packages. The report notes that major express companies are seeing a trend of rising prices [21][22]. - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" policies that are easing price competition and improving valuations in the industry [22]. 4. Aviation - The report indicates a 5% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in the civil aviation sector, with domestic ticket prices also showing improvement. The average daily utilization of aircraft has increased by 1.3% year-on-year [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and their effects on industry valuations and supply-demand dynamics [24]. 5. Logistics - The report tracks the daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, which averaged about 1,031 vehicles, reflecting an 8% increase week-on-week. The average short-haul freight rate has also risen [25][81]. - It notes a 6.9% week-on-week increase in the Shanghai outbound air freight price index, indicating a recovery in logistics pricing [25][86].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 27 日 白酒批价震荡，推荐大众品结构性成长 食品饮料行业周报（10.26） 消费品/食品饮料 本周茅台集团换帅，贵州省能源局局长陈华接任茅台集团董事长，其到来有望 强化集团与政府的协同。之于股份公司，新领导预计接棒落实 2025 年既定目 标，为全省经济发展多作贡献。我们认为，近期临近双十一大促及年底回款、 预计短期批价仍有扰动，但中期展望，产业出清、需求激发、批价企稳是积极 的信号，板块买点可能在年底出现。大众品板块，东鹏三季报利润超预期、基 本盘稳增叠加第二曲线继续扩张有望助力公司延续高速增长。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：茅台集团换帅，东鹏三季报超预期。 贵州茅台：茅台集团宣布重大人事调整，贵州省能源局局长陈华接任董事 长。10 月 25 日，茅台集团召开大会宣布重大人事调整，张德芹不再担任 茅台集团董事长职务，陈华接任茅台集团董事长。 金徽酒：Q3 经营质量稳健，税率上升影响净利。25Q3 公司收入/归母净 利润同比分别-4.9%/-33.0%，经营具备相对韧性，收入符合预期，利润受 所得税率上升拖累。百元以下产品受益于大众消费，动销增长较好，中档 产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a strong recommendation for several companies in the military industry, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9]. Core Insights - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized new goals for national defense capabilities, including the enhancement of "national defense strength" and "international influence" [21]. - The report highlights the aerospace sector as a key focus area for military investment, particularly in the context of the newly stated goal of becoming a "space power" [21]. - Upcoming quarterly reports are expected to show a turning point in industry performance, with several companies already reporting significant year-on-year revenue and profit growth [24]. Industry Overview - The military industry consists of 118 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,092.9 billion and a circulating market value of 1,736.7 billion [4]. - The SW National Defense and Military Industry Index has shown a performance increase of 16.47% year-to-date, although it has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 Index by 1.97% [12][20]. - The industry is currently valued at a PE (TTM) of 85.77 times, with a five-year percentile of 78.63% [20]. Key Events - The Fourth Plenary Session concluded with new national defense goals, including a focus on high-quality military modernization and the integration of advanced combat capabilities [21]. - The report notes that the aerospace equipment sector has been particularly responsive to the recent policy announcements, showing strong performance [16][21]. Performance Summary - The report identifies several companies with notable performance, including North Navigation with a revenue increase of 210% and a net profit increase of 268.8% [25]. - The top-performing stocks in the military sector include North Shares (+25.20%) and Feili Hua (+17.92%) [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 showed a revenue of 2.265 billion yuan, down 20.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, down 45.69% year-on-year [1][7]. - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a significant drop in orders for photovoltaic vacuum pumps, which has affected capacity utilization and profitability [7]. - There are signs that the demand for photovoltaic vacuum pumps may have bottomed out, with expectations for recovery in the future [7]. - The company is actively positioning itself in the AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) business, which is anticipated to drive future growth [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 3.852 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, followed by a decline of 5% in 2024 and a further decline of 19% in 2025 [2][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 865 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 34%, and a projected decline of 41% in 2025 [2][12]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 15.7 in 2023, increasing to 26.6 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation despite declining profits [2][13]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 34.90% and a net margin of 17.35% for the first three quarters of the year, both showing declines compared to the previous year [7]. - The cash flow situation is healthy, with a cash collection rate of 91.52% of revenue and a net operating cash flow of 1.54 times the net profit [7]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 30.0%, indicating a relatively low level of debt [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3][5] Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of 6.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 41.9% year-on-year, indicating strong performance exceeding expectations [1][2][3] - The strong sales of the "Bup Shui La" product line, particularly in North China and Southwest regions, contributed significantly to the revenue growth [2][3] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 8.78, 10.91, and 12.71 yuan respectively, reflecting continued growth potential [3][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 16.84 billion yuan, a 34.1% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 3.76 billion yuan, up 38.9% [2][4] - The Q3 gross margin was reported at 45.2%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 22.7% [3][4] - Cash flow from operations for Q3 was 1.39 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.3% increase year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [2][3] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 19.4%, 134.7%, and 76.5% respectively [2][3] - The company saw significant growth in the Southwest and North China regions, with year-on-year revenue increases of 48.9% and 72.9% respectively [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth momentum, supported by ongoing expansion of its distribution network and product lines [3][5] - The report anticipates stable growth in the company's fundamentals, with projections for revenue growth of 33% in 2025 and 22% in 2026 [4][17]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 26 日 中炬高新（600872.SH） 持续调整，静待反转 消费品/食品饮料 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《中炬高新（600872）—承压发展， 期待新管理改善》2025-09-04 2、《中炬高新（600872）—Q1 承压 发展，期待改革加速》2025-04-30 3、《中炬高新（600872）—美味鲜稳 健收官，期待改革动能释放》 2025-04-12 陈书慧 S1090523010003 chenshuhui@cmschina.com.cn 任龙 S1090522090003 renlong1@cmschina.com.cn 美味鲜 25Q3 收入/归母净利润分别同比-19.37%/-41.93%，持续调整业绩压力 仍存。Q3 公司重视价盘维护与渠道库存健康，业绩仍处于调整期。利润端毛利 率延续改善趋势，但费用投入增加导致盈利能力承压。展望明年，公司新管理 层有望继续推进改革，并加大并购与渠道拓展，期待公司加速改革节奏，走出 低谷逐步改善。考虑到前三季度经营压力，我们调整 25-26 年公司 eps 分别为 0.76、0.88 ...