Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand recovers relatively slowly. Affected by the Sino-US trade game, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the live pig price is relatively firm due to the support from the feed side. The overall trend of live pig prices is mainly consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for now, pay attention to the later development of the trade game, and relevant enterprises are advised to carry out hedging operations according to their business conditions. The main contract is gradually shifting to LH2509, and investors should pay attention to the rollover risk [3] Summary by Directory I. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: LH2505 closed at 13,270, up 45 or 0.3%; LH2507 closed at 13,480, up 40 or 0.3%; LH2509 closed at 13,860, down 140 or -1.0% [3][7] - Spot prices: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter was 14.54 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan or 0.2%; the price in Henan was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.1% [3][7] II. Inter-month Spread, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 07-05 spread was 210, down 5; the 09-05 spread was 590, down 185 [12] - Basis: The basis for the May contract was 1350, down 35; the basis for the July contract was 1140, down 30 [12] - Warehouse receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 65 [3][12] III. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows and commercial pigs is presented in the report, and it is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in April may continue to increase month-on-month [15][21] - Inventory structure: The proportion of different weight ranges of live pigs is shown, and the price of weaned piglets is 533.33 yuan/head, up 4.76 yuan/head. It is expected that the price will remain stable at a high level in the short term. The price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week, and the inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [20][21] V. Standard-Fat Spread - National average: The weekly average standard-fat spread was -0.32 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.15 yuan/kg compared with last week. The prices of standard and fat pigs both declined, and the price of fat pigs decreased more significantly due to weakened demand with rising temperatures [24][25] - Regional differences: The standard-fat spread in various regions showed different degrees of change, with most regions narrowing [25] VI. Slaughter End - Slaughter rate: The weekly slaughter rate was 27.20%, up 0.6 percentage points. The market supply is sufficient, but the sales of white-striped pork are affected by downstream price pressure [28] - Fresh sales rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 89.4%, slightly down 0.04 percentage points [28] - Frozen storage rate: The frozen storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.26%, up 0.12 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the fresh sales rate will fluctuate slightly and the frozen storage rate will continue to rise moderately [28] VII. White-striped Pork and Wholesale Market - White-striped pork price: The price of the top three grades of white-striped pork and the difference between live pig and white-striped pork prices are presented in the report [29] - Consumption situation: The comparison of the average wholesale prices of related meats shows the consumption situation of pork [35][36] VIII. Profit and Cost - Profit: The average weekly profit of self-breeding and self-raising was 131.97 yuan/head, an increase of 10.10 yuan/head compared with last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 104.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.75 yuan/head compared with last week [38] - Pig-grain ratio: The pig-grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to decline further with the Sino-US trade game and firm feed prices [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing with loose fiscal and monetary policies. In the short - term, the index is falling, and investors are advised to wait and see. The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures. The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level [2][5][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: Starting from April 10, 2025, at 12:01, China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States on top of the current applicable tariff rates, with the current bonded and tax - exemption policies remaining unchanged [2] - **Overseas News**: The U.S. stock market suffered heavy losses for two consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 10% during the holiday, the S&P 500 index dropped 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%, entering a technical bear market [2] - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index declined weakly last week with lower trading volume. The net outflow of main funds in the past 5 trading days was 158.9 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 23.2 billion yuan. Technically, the index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume decreasing and medium - long - term valuation at a medium - low level [2] II. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures prices fell, and market trading volume decreased [5] - **Basis**: The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [5] - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.14%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 8.06% [5] III. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI (50.5) was above the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.75) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal [8] - **Profit**: The year - on - year net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year - on - year [8] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.75%, a decrease of 6 basis points from last week [8] IV. Stock Index Fund and Valuation Changes - **Fund**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 23.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 158.9 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [11] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, with a percentile of 38% [11] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Medium - long - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing [15] - **Earnings Situation**: The year - on - year earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased [15] - **Fund Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow [15] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, providing medium - long - term support for the stock index [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - long - term moving average, trading volume is decreasing, and the short - term trend is oscillating and bearish [14]

| | 供应 需求 | 螺纹产量本周保持稳定，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将维持在当前水平，持 续关注钢厂产量变化。 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年同期有大幅回落， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 成本 | 水泥熟料产能利用率保持稳定，基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库21.04万吨，钢厂库存去库 2.41万吨，社会库存本周去库18.63万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2970元/吨左右。 | | | | 基差与价差 | 期货低位震荡，现货窄幅震荡，基差保持稳定。 | | | 螺纹 | 总结 | 受海外税收政策扰动，商品市场整体承压，钢材价格本周低位震荡，钢厂产 量预计仍将保持在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期，持续 | | | | | 大幅回升可能性较小，成材矛盾不突出，整体维持区间震荡。 | | | | 近期重要事件 | 4.3 22：00 美国3月MARKIT PMI | | | | | 4.4 美国3月失业率/非农 | 20：30 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is below the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In March this year, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of open - market outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity. Trump is expected to announce trade tariff policies later this week. Panic in the first quarter led global investors to reduce portfolio risks and turn to safe - haven assets, pushing up US Treasury bond prices and gold prices to a record high [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The weekly closing prices of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 increased by 0.09%, 0.25%, 0.43%, and 0.79% respectively. The trading volume/holding volume ratios were 1.77, 1.73, 2.06, and 5.60 respectively [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased slightly, and the yield spread remained stable [9] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities for Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [13] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The Treasury bond term structure was steeper than last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 24 [21]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Supply is sufficient, demand is recovering slowly, and pig prices are mainly in a consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2505 closed at 13,225, down 130 (-1.0%); LH2507 closed at 13,440, up 45 (0.3%); LH2509 closed at 14,000, unchanged (0.0%) [3][7] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg (-0.7%); the price in Henan was 14.61 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg (-0.7%). The average slaughter weight was 123.9 kg, up 0.06 kg (0.0%) [3] - Spread data: The 07 - 05 spread was 215, up 175; the 09 - 05 spread was 775, up 130. The 5 - month basis was 1385, up 30; the 7 - month basis was 1170, down 145 [3][13] - Slaughter data: The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up; the frozen product storage rate was 17.14%, up [3] - Profit and cost data: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 121.87 yuan/head, up; the profit from purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, up. The standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, up; the live - white spread was 4.26 yuan/kg, down [3] - Warehouse receipt data: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 65, a decrease of 679 [3][13] Group 5: Piglet and Sow Market - The average price of weaned piglets was 528.57 yuan/head, up 17.62 yuan/head. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged. The domestic inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [21] Group 6: Pig Slaughter and Market Conditions - The national average slaughter weight was 123.84 kg, up 0.09 kg. The average slaughter price was 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. The monthly plan completion rate of large - scale farms was good, and there was no concentrated selling of medium and large pigs [24] - The national average standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared to last week [28] - The weekly slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up 0.34 percentage points. The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.44%, down 0.38 percentage points. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises was 17.14%, up 0.09 percentage points [31] Group 7: Profit and Pig - Grain Ratio - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 121.87 yuan/head, up 20.38 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, down 12.59 yuan/head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to slightly increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [40] Group 8: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volume and high slaughter weight, with sufficient market supply [43] - Demand: It is currently the traditional consumption off - season, with poor market demand. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased [43] - Cold storage: The cold storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is low, and the cold storage capacity is expected to increase in the later stage [43] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [43] - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43] - Market sentiment: Farmers are relatively optimistic, while the animal health and frozen product trading sectors are relatively pessimistic; the overall market sentiment is neutral [43]

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/31 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 周度总结及后市展望： • 国内消息：据国家统计局数据显示，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上 升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升。 3 • 海外消息：美国2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，超过预期的2.7%和前值2.6%；环比则上 涨0.4%，超出预期和前值0.3%，创2024年1月以来新高。 | 股指期货 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3882.8 | 3884 | 0.03% | 250972 | 152667 | 1.64 | | IH2506 | 2671.8 | 2677.6 | 0.22% | 3 123912 | 50848 | 2.44 | | IC2506 | 5810.6 | 5766.8 | -0.75% | 175769 | 98522 | 1.78 | | IM2506 ...

澳洲&巴西铁矿石发货量 华 金 期 货 黑 色 原 料 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/28 | | | 铁矿周度汇总 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应 | 海外发运维持在正常水平，本周澳巴发运小幅回升，非主流发运 亦小幅回升，国产铁精粉产量保持稳定，关注海外发运变化。 | | | 需求 | 钢厂利润尚可，预计铁水产量仍将会保持在高位，持续关注产量 端变化。 | | | 库存 | 3 疏港量持续回升，下游按需补库，烧结粉库存维持在低位，需求 | | 铁矿石 | | 端仍有小幅回升空间，预计港口库存保持平稳略增。 | | | 基差与价差 | 青岛港pb粉低位反弹，主力合约冲高后震荡。 | | | 总结 | 铁水产量持续回升，钢厂烧结粉库存较低，整体刚需仍在且仍有 | | | | 回升空间，节前预计仍将保持一定韧性。 | | | 风险因素 | 成材需求再度大幅回落，铁水产量持续维持在低位。 | 一、铁矿石海外供应 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 铁矿：发货量：全球（周） 2021 2 ...

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/27 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 需求 | 钢产量变化。 | 螺纹产量本周小幅回升，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍有回升空间，持续关注 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年又有大幅回落，水 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 注产量与需求的平衡。 | 泥熟料产能利用率大幅回升，基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体累库幅度显著弱于往年同期，库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库 19.89万吨，钢厂库存去库8.38万吨，社会库存本周去库9.51万吨，持续关 3 | | | 成本 | | 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2950元/吨左右。 | | 螺纹 | 基差与价差 | | 期货低位震荡，现货窄幅震荡，基差保持稳定。 | | | 总结 | | 钢材价格本周低位震荡，整体略有反弹，部分钢厂因自身利润问题有减产动 作，但整体来看产量仍在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期， | | | | | 持续大幅回升可能性较小，成材矛盾不突出，整体维持区间震荡。 | | | 近期重要事件 | 2 ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/25 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货高位震荡。资金方面，上周央行净投放3785亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线下方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢高沽空。 国内消息：1～2月，全国一般公共预算收入43856亿元，同比下降1.6%。全国一般公共预算支出45096 亿元，同比增长3.4%。证券交易印花税238亿元，同比增长58.9%。 国外消息：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，他目前预计今年只会降息一次。这低于他之 前预期的两次降息。博斯蒂克表示，他改变了自己的预测，因为他认为今年的通胀回落进程将"非常颠 簸"。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货震荡 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 1 ...