Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing with loose fiscal and monetary policies. In the short - term, the index is falling, and investors are advised to wait and see. The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures. The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level [2][5][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: Starting from April 10, 2025, at 12:01, China will impose an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the United States on top of the current applicable tariff rates, with the current bonded and tax - exemption policies remaining unchanged [2] - **Overseas News**: The U.S. stock market suffered heavy losses for two consecutive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 10% during the holiday, the S&P 500 index dropped 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%, entering a technical bear market [2] - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index declined weakly last week with lower trading volume. The net outflow of main funds in the past 5 trading days was 158.9 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 23.2 billion yuan. Technically, the index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume decreasing and medium - long - term valuation at a medium - low level [2] II. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures prices fell, and market trading volume decreased [5] - **Basis**: The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [5] - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.14%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 8.06% [5] III. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI (50.5) was above the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.75) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal [8] - **Profit**: The year - on - year net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year - on - year [8] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.75%, a decrease of 6 basis points from last week [8] IV. Stock Index Fund and Valuation Changes - **Fund**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 23.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 158.9 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [11] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, with a percentile of 38% [11] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Medium - long - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing [15] - **Earnings Situation**: The year - on - year earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased [15] - **Fund Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow [15] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, providing medium - long - term support for the stock index [15] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - long - term moving average, trading volume is decreasing, and the short - term trend is oscillating and bearish [14]

| | 供应 需求 | 螺纹产量本周保持稳定，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将维持在当前水平，持 续关注钢厂产量变化。 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年同期有大幅回落， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 成本 | 水泥熟料产能利用率保持稳定，基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库21.04万吨，钢厂库存去库 2.41万吨，社会库存本周去库18.63万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2970元/吨左右。 | | | | 基差与价差 | 期货低位震荡，现货窄幅震荡，基差保持稳定。 | | | 螺纹 | 总结 | 受海外税收政策扰动，商品市场整体承压，钢材价格本周低位震荡，钢厂产 量预计仍将保持在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期，持续 | | | | | 大幅回升可能性较小，成材矛盾不突出，整体维持区间震荡。 | | | | 近期重要事件 | 4.3 22：00 美国3月MARKIT PMI | | | | | 4.4 美国3月失业率/非农 | 20：30 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is below the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In March this year, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of open - market outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity. Trump is expected to announce trade tariff policies later this week. Panic in the first quarter led global investors to reduce portfolio risks and turn to safe - haven assets, pushing up US Treasury bond prices and gold prices to a record high [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The central bank made a net injection of 303.6 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long - term. The Treasury market price is oscillating at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside space is limited, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rebounded. The weekly closing prices of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 increased by 0.09%, 0.25%, 0.43%, and 0.79% respectively. The trading volume/holding volume ratios were 1.77, 1.73, 2.06, and 5.60 respectively [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased slightly, and the yield spread remained stable [9] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities for Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [13] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The Treasury bond term structure was steeper than last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 24 [21]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Supply is sufficient, demand is recovering slowly, and pig prices are mainly in a consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2505 closed at 13,225, down 130 (-1.0%); LH2507 closed at 13,440, up 45 (0.3%); LH2509 closed at 14,000, unchanged (0.0%) [3][7] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg (-0.7%); the price in Henan was 14.61 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg (-0.7%). The average slaughter weight was 123.9 kg, up 0.06 kg (0.0%) [3] - Spread data: The 07 - 05 spread was 215, up 175; the 09 - 05 spread was 775, up 130. The 5 - month basis was 1385, up 30; the 7 - month basis was 1170, down 145 [3][13] - Slaughter data: The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up; the frozen product storage rate was 17.14%, up [3] - Profit and cost data: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 121.87 yuan/head, up; the profit from purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, up. The standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, up; the live - white spread was 4.26 yuan/kg, down [3] - Warehouse receipt data: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 65, a decrease of 679 [3][13] Group 5: Piglet and Sow Market - The average price of weaned piglets was 528.57 yuan/head, up 17.62 yuan/head. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged. The domestic inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [21] Group 6: Pig Slaughter and Market Conditions - The national average slaughter weight was 123.84 kg, up 0.09 kg. The average slaughter price was 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. The monthly plan completion rate of large - scale farms was good, and there was no concentrated selling of medium and large pigs [24] - The national average standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared to last week [28] - The weekly slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up 0.34 percentage points. The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.44%, down 0.38 percentage points. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises was 17.14%, up 0.09 percentage points [31] Group 7: Profit and Pig - Grain Ratio - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 121.87 yuan/head, up 20.38 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, down 12.59 yuan/head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to slightly increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [40] Group 8: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volume and high slaughter weight, with sufficient market supply [43] - Demand: It is currently the traditional consumption off - season, with poor market demand. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased [43] - Cold storage: The cold storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is low, and the cold storage capacity is expected to increase in the later stage [43] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [43] - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43] - Market sentiment: Farmers are relatively optimistic, while the animal health and frozen product trading sectors are relatively pessimistic; the overall market sentiment is neutral [43]

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/31 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 周度总结及后市展望： • 国内消息：据国家统计局数据显示，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上 升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升。 3 • 海外消息：美国2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，超过预期的2.7%和前值2.6%；环比则上 涨0.4%，超出预期和前值0.3%，创2024年1月以来新高。 | 股指期货 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3882.8 | 3884 | 0.03% | 250972 | 152667 | 1.64 | | IH2506 | 2671.8 | 2677.6 | 0.22% | 3 123912 | 50848 | 2.44 | | IC2506 | 5810.6 | 5766.8 | -0.75% | 175769 | 98522 | 1.78 | | IM2506 ...

澳洲&巴西铁矿石发货量 华 金 期 货 黑 色 原 料 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/28 | | | 铁矿周度汇总 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应 | 海外发运维持在正常水平，本周澳巴发运小幅回升，非主流发运 亦小幅回升，国产铁精粉产量保持稳定，关注海外发运变化。 | | | 需求 | 钢厂利润尚可，预计铁水产量仍将会保持在高位，持续关注产量 端变化。 | | | 库存 | 3 疏港量持续回升，下游按需补库，烧结粉库存维持在低位，需求 | | 铁矿石 | | 端仍有小幅回升空间，预计港口库存保持平稳略增。 | | | 基差与价差 | 青岛港pb粉低位反弹，主力合约冲高后震荡。 | | | 总结 | 铁水产量持续回升，钢厂烧结粉库存较低，整体刚需仍在且仍有 | | | | 回升空间，节前预计仍将保持一定韧性。 | | | 风险因素 | 成材需求再度大幅回落，铁水产量持续维持在低位。 | 一、铁矿石海外供应 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 铁矿：发货量：全球（周） 2021 2 ...

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/27 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 需求 | 钢产量变化。 | 螺纹产量本周小幅回升，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍有回升空间，持续关注 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年又有大幅回落，水 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 注产量与需求的平衡。 | 泥熟料产能利用率大幅回升，基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体累库幅度显著弱于往年同期，库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库 19.89万吨，钢厂库存去库8.38万吨，社会库存本周去库9.51万吨，持续关 3 | | | 成本 | | 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2950元/吨左右。 | | 螺纹 | 基差与价差 | | 期货低位震荡，现货窄幅震荡，基差保持稳定。 | | | 总结 | | 钢材价格本周低位震荡，整体略有反弹，部分钢厂因自身利润问题有减产动 作，但整体来看产量仍在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期， | | | | | 持续大幅回升可能性较小，成材矛盾不突出，整体维持区间震荡。 | | | 近期重要事件 | 2 ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/25 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货高位震荡。资金方面，上周央行净投放3785亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线下方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢高沽空。 国内消息：1～2月，全国一般公共预算收入43856亿元，同比下降1.6%。全国一般公共预算支出45096 亿元，同比增长3.4%。证券交易印花税238亿元，同比增长58.9%。 国外消息：亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克在接受采访时表示，他目前预计今年只会降息一次。这低于他之 前预期的两次降息。博斯蒂克表示，他改变了自己的预测，因为他认为今年的通胀回落进程将"非常颠 簸"。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货震荡 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 1 ...

Policy Measures - The central bank will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market[1] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points from 1.7% to 1.5%, aiming to guide loan market rates downwards[1] - The minimum down payment ratio for second homes will be lowered from 25% to 15%, aligning first and second home loan requirements[1] - New structural monetary policy tools will be established to support capital markets, including liquidity swaps for securities, funds, and insurance companies[1] Economic Context - Manufacturing PMI has been below the growth line for four consecutive months, indicating a contraction in the economy[2] - Fixed asset investment growth has been declining, with real estate investment showing negative growth for nearly three years due to previous regulatory measures[3] - Consumer spending growth has been continuously declining, reflecting weakened consumer confidence amid economic downturns[4] Market Implications - The current 10-year government bond yield is around 2%, and the reserve requirement ratio is at historical lows, indicating a supportive monetary environment[10] - The stock market has seen a significant drop in valuations, with the current price-to-earnings ratio for the CSI 300 index at 10-11 times, marking a 10-year low[18] - Following the announcement of the new policies, major stock indices experienced a surge of approximately 5%, indicating strong market reactions to the policy measures[18]