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华金期货生猪周报-20250414
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 13:20
华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/14 生猪周度汇总 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2505 | 13380 | 110 | 0.8% | | | | LH2507 | 13585 | 105 | 0.8% | | | | LH2509 | 14345 | 485 | 3.5% | 主力合约 | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国(元/kg) | 14.57 | 0.02 3 | 0.1% | | | | 河南(元/kg) | 14.77 | 0.05 | 0.3% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业(kg) | 123.98 | 0.07 | 0.1% | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 07-05价差 | 205 | -5 | 7月 | 1185 | 45 | | 09-05价差 | 965 | 375 | 9月 | 425 | -335 | ...
华金期货黑色原料周报-20250411
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 14:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall demand remains stable with high pig iron production and low sinter powder inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation before the holiday [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in excess, and both the futures and spot prices lack the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Overseas Supply - The overseas shipment of iron ore is generally at a normal level. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2548000 tons to 23.93 million tons this week, and the shipment from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased to the average level, dropping by 111000 tons to about 5.289 million tons. The arrival volume is expected to remain at an average level in the second quarter [6]. - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q4 iron ore production was 85.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%, and the annual production reached the upper limit of the forecast and the 2025 production target was raised to 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q4 iron ore production was 86.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the shipment volume was 85.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, with the 2025 shipment target unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Q4 iron ore production in the Pilbara business was 73.071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [18]. Demand - The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. This week, the pig iron production increased by 14900 tons to about 2.4022 million tons, the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory as needed [2][24]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory remains at a low level, and the total port inventory decreased slightly by 1273900 tons to 143.4102 million tons this week, but the overall level is still high and is expected to remain in a balanced state. The imported sinter powder inventory of steel mills decreased steadily, dropping by 172300 tons to 12.4847 million tons this week [30][33]. Futures - Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices of iron ore are oscillating at a low level and are expected to remain in the range - bound state before May Day [37]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, the CPI has generally declined, and the tariff has affected market sentiment. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [43]. Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipment No specific analysis content provided other than the chart. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. The coke profit continues to be negative, and the coke production is expected to remain at the current level [48][51]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking coal inventory rebounded from a low level, increasing by 141000 tons to 9.6569 million tons this week, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased slightly by 100800 tons to about 7.7963 million tons, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. The port - imported coking coal inventory continued to decline and remained stable this week, dropping slightly by 9600 tons to 3.4892 million tons, and the mine clean coal inventory is at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the 05 contract has been declining, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, with no substantial turning point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - The coke enterprises' intention to raise prices is difficult to achieve. The independent coke production is at a low level, the inventory has been declining, but the port coke inventory has rebounded to a high level compared to the same period. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, the pig iron production increased slightly by 14900 tons to 2.4022 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 49 yuan per ton [66][71]. Coke Term Structure - The coke futures price has been continuously declining, the decline of the spot price is weaker than that of the futures, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].
华金期货螺纹周报-20250410
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 10:17
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Affected by tariff factors, the commodity market has significantly declined, and steel prices have fluctuated at a low level this week. Steel mill production is expected to remain high, while the demand side remains weak. Apparent demand is expected to reach a plateau, with a low possibility of a significant and continuous rebound. Given the changing market environment, it is recommended to short sell rebar at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Section Section 1: Rebar Supply - Mysteel's weekly production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, with electric furnace production rising by 3.13 tons and blast furnace production increasing by 0.59 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that steel production is at a high level [10]. - Steel mill production is currently stable, and with good profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3]. Section 2: Rebar Demand - Apparent demand has entered a stable phase, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year. Overall, it is significantly weaker than the same period last year. Cement clinker capacity utilization remained stable this week, and Mysteel's daily transactions were generally weak, consistent with the performance of apparent demand [15]. Section 3: Rebar Inventory - Rebar total inventory continued to decline slightly this week. Hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable. Rebar mill inventory increased by 7.54 tons to around 214.66 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.10 tons, and total inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 797.76 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises has declined from a high level [21]. Section 4: Rebar Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,880 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is around 2,930 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,924 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on April 9th, which was 2,930 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 6 yuan/ton [24]. Section 5: Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian decreased from 3,230 yuan to 3,170 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan. The price of Tangshan Qian'an billet decreased from 3,050 yuan to 2,970 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [27]. Section 6: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore fluctuated widely. Due to the contract - switching factor, the main contract's rebar - to - iron ore ratio strengthened slightly. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and the ferrous metal market is expected to remain under pressure [33]. Section 7: Statistical Bureau - Related Data - In January - February, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.8% and 29.6% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with January - December, while the decline in new housing construction area widened by 6.6 percentage points [37].
华金期货国债期货市场周报-2025-04-08
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 06:53
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]
华金期货生猪周报-2025-04-07
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 11:26
华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 13 14 15 16 17 商品猪:出栏均价:中国(日) 商品猪:出栏均价:河南(日) | | | 3/28 | 12 4/3 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LH2505 | 13225 | 13270 | 45 | 0.3% | 主力合约 | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13440 | 13480 | 40 | 0.3% | | | | LH2509 | 14000 | 13860 | -140 | -1.0% | | | | 全国 | 14.51 | 14.54 | 0.03 | 0.2% | | | 现货价格 数据来源&制图:文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | 河南 | 14.61 | 14.62 | 0.01 | 0.1% | 交割基准区域 | 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/7 生猪周度汇总 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2505 ...
华金期货股指期货市场周报-2025-04-07
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 08:03
股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/7 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面: 3 • 国内消息:国务院关税税则委员会公告称,自2025年4月10日12时01分起,对原产于美国的进 口商品加征关税。有关事项如下:对原产于美国的所有进口商品,在现行适用关税税率基础上加 征34%关税;现行保税、减免税政策不变,此次加征的关税不予减免。 • 海外消息:美国股市连续两天天遭受重创,道指节假日下跌近10%,标普500指数跌5.97,创 2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅,纳指跌5.82%,较历史最高收盘纪录下跌超过20%,确认进入技 术性熊市区间。 • 周度总结及后市展望: • 上周沪深300指数弱势下跌,成交下降。近5个交易日主力资金净流出1589亿元,融资资金下降 232亿元;宏观层面,国内经济弱势企稳,财政政策、货币政策保持宽松;风险方面,关注关税 政策扰动、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上,沪深300指数位于40均线下方,短期成交量下降,中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面, 短期指数下跌,投资者观望为主。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 ...
华金期货螺纹周报-2025-04-03
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 08:39
| | 供应 需求 | 螺纹产量本周保持稳定,钢厂利润可观,预计产量仍将维持在当前水平,持 续关注钢厂产量变化。 表观需求本周保持稳定,预计高点已现,表观需求较去年同期有大幅回落, | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 成本 | 水泥熟料产能利用率保持稳定,基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体库存持续小幅回落,螺纹总库存去库21.04万吨,钢厂库存去库 2.41万吨,社会库存本周去库18.63万吨,持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右,15日平均成本在2970元/吨左右。 | | | | 基差与价差 | 期货低位震荡,现货窄幅震荡,基差保持稳定。 | | | 螺纹 | 总结 | 受海外税收政策扰动,商品市场整体承压,钢材价格本周低位震荡,钢厂产 量预计仍将保持在高位,需求端保持疲弱,预计表观需求到达平台期,持续 | | | | | 大幅回升可能性较小,成材矛盾不突出,整体维持区间震荡。 | | | | 近期重要事件 | 4.3 22:00 美国3月MARKIT PMI | | | | | 4.4 美国3月失业率/非农 | 20:30 | | | ...
华金期货国债期货市场周报-2025-04-01
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-01 07:19
国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/1 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货反弹回升。资金方面,上周央行净投放3036亿元。上周十年期国债利率略降;长期看, 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上,T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线下方。操作方面,国债市场价格高位震荡,利率仍处低位 区间,中长期看上方空间有限,短期逢高沽空。 • 价格走势:上周国债期货反弹回升 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 102.356 | 102.446 | 0.09% | 169383 | 95571 | 1.77 | | TF2506 | 105.39 | 105.65 | 0.25% | 267555 | 155050 | 1.73 | | T2506 | 107.415 | 107.875 | 0.43% | 359205 | 174289 | 2.06 | | TL2506 | 115.09 ...
华金期货生猪周报-2025-03-31
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-31 11:31
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Supply is sufficient, demand is recovering slowly, and pig prices are mainly in a consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2505 closed at 13,225, down 130 (-1.0%); LH2507 closed at 13,440, up 45 (0.3%); LH2509 closed at 14,000, unchanged (0.0%) [3][7] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg (-0.7%); the price in Henan was 14.61 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg (-0.7%). The average slaughter weight was 123.9 kg, up 0.06 kg (0.0%) [3] - Spread data: The 07 - 05 spread was 215, up 175; the 09 - 05 spread was 775, up 130. The 5 - month basis was 1385, up 30; the 7 - month basis was 1170, down 145 [3][13] - Slaughter data: The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up; the frozen product storage rate was 17.14%, up [3] - Profit and cost data: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 121.87 yuan/head, up; the profit from purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, up. The standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, up; the live - white spread was 4.26 yuan/kg, down [3] - Warehouse receipt data: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 65, a decrease of 679 [3][13] Group 5: Piglet and Sow Market - The average price of weaned piglets was 528.57 yuan/head, up 17.62 yuan/head. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged. The domestic inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [21] Group 6: Pig Slaughter and Market Conditions - The national average slaughter weight was 123.84 kg, up 0.09 kg. The average slaughter price was 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. The monthly plan completion rate of large - scale farms was good, and there was no concentrated selling of medium and large pigs [24] - The national average standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared to last week [28] - The weekly slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up 0.34 percentage points. The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.44%, down 0.38 percentage points. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises was 17.14%, up 0.09 percentage points [31] Group 7: Profit and Pig - Grain Ratio - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 121.87 yuan/head, up 20.38 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, down 12.59 yuan/head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to slightly increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [40] Group 8: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volume and high slaughter weight, with sufficient market supply [43] - Demand: It is currently the traditional consumption off - season, with poor market demand. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased [43] - Cold storage: The cold storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is low, and the cold storage capacity is expected to increase in the later stage [43] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [43] - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43] - Market sentiment: Farmers are relatively optimistic, while the animal health and frozen product trading sectors are relatively pessimistic; the overall market sentiment is neutral [43]
华金期货股指期货市场周报-2025-03-31
Hua Jin Qi Huo· 2025-03-31 10:50
股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/31 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面: • 周度总结及后市展望: • 国内消息:据国家统计局数据显示,3月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为50.5%,比上月上 升0.3个百分点,制造业景气水平继续回升。 3 • 海外消息:美国2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%,超过预期的2.7%和前值2.6%;环比则上 涨0.4%,超出预期和前值0.3%,创2024年1月以来新高。 | 股指期货 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3882.8 | 3884 | 0.03% | 250972 | 152667 | 1.64 | | IH2506 | 2671.8 | 2677.6 | 0.22% | 3 123912 | 50848 | 2.44 | | IC2506 | 5810.6 | 5766.8 | -0.75% | 175769 | 98522 | 1.78 | | IM2506 ...