华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/14 生猪周度汇总 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2505 | 13380 | 110 | 0.8% | | | | LH2507 | 13585 | 105 | 0.8% | | | | LH2509 | 14345 | 485 | 3.5% | 主力合约 | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国（元/kg） | 14.57 | 0.02 3 | 0.1% | | | | 河南（元/kg） | 14.77 | 0.05 | 0.3% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业（kg） | 123.98 | 0.07 | 0.1% | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 07-05价差 | 205 | -5 | 7月 | 1185 | 45 | | 09-05价差 | 965 | 375 | 9月 | 425 | -335 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall demand remains stable with high pig iron production and low sinter powder inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation before the holiday [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in excess, and both the futures and spot prices lack the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Overseas Supply - The overseas shipment of iron ore is generally at a normal level. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2548000 tons to 23.93 million tons this week, and the shipment from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased to the average level, dropping by 111000 tons to about 5.289 million tons. The arrival volume is expected to remain at an average level in the second quarter [6]. - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q4 iron ore production was 85.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%, and the annual production reached the upper limit of the forecast and the 2025 production target was raised to 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q4 iron ore production was 86.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the shipment volume was 85.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, with the 2025 shipment target unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Q4 iron ore production in the Pilbara business was 73.071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [18]. Demand - The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. This week, the pig iron production increased by 14900 tons to about 2.4022 million tons, the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory as needed [2][24]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory remains at a low level, and the total port inventory decreased slightly by 1273900 tons to 143.4102 million tons this week, but the overall level is still high and is expected to remain in a balanced state. The imported sinter powder inventory of steel mills decreased steadily, dropping by 172300 tons to 12.4847 million tons this week [30][33]. Futures - Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices of iron ore are oscillating at a low level and are expected to remain in the range - bound state before May Day [37]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, the CPI has generally declined, and the tariff has affected market sentiment. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [43]. Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipment No specific analysis content provided other than the chart. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. The coke profit continues to be negative, and the coke production is expected to remain at the current level [48][51]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking coal inventory rebounded from a low level, increasing by 141000 tons to 9.6569 million tons this week, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased slightly by 100800 tons to about 7.7963 million tons, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. The port - imported coking coal inventory continued to decline and remained stable this week, dropping slightly by 9600 tons to 3.4892 million tons, and the mine clean coal inventory is at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the 05 contract has been declining, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, with no substantial turning point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - The coke enterprises' intention to raise prices is difficult to achieve. The independent coke production is at a low level, the inventory has been declining, but the port coke inventory has rebounded to a high level compared to the same period. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, the pig iron production increased slightly by 14900 tons to 2.4022 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 49 yuan per ton [66][71]. Coke Term Structure - The coke futures price has been continuously declining, the decline of the spot price is weaker than that of the futures, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/10 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 | 螺纹产量本周保持稳定，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将维持在当前水平，持 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 续关注钢厂产量变化。 | | | | 需求 | 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年同期有大幅回落， | | | | | 水泥熟料产能利用率保持稳定，基建端仍起托举作用。 | | | | 库存 | 螺纹整体库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库20.31万吨，钢厂库存回升 | | | | | 7.54万吨，社会库存本周去库27.85万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 | | | | 成本 | 据估算即时高炉成本在2880元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2930元/吨左右。 | | | | 基差与价差 | 期货大幅回落，现货持续承压，基差保持稳定。 | | | 螺纹 | 总结 | 受关税因素影响，商品市场大幅回落，钢材价格本周低位震荡，钢厂产量预 | | | | | 计仍将保持在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期，持续大幅 | | | | | 回升可能性较小 ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/8 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货大幅上涨。资金方面，上周央行净回笼5019亿元。上周十年期国债利率下降；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线上方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位上行，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢低买入。 国内消息：受海外关税冲击影响，周一A股迎来调整。临近收盘之时，中央汇金发布公告称，坚定看好中 国资本市场发展前景，充分认可当前A股配置价值，已再次增持了交易型开放式指数基金（ETF），未来 将继续增持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 国外消息：美方威胁进一步对华加征50%关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方 将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货大幅上涨 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 102.44 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 13 14 15 16 17 商品猪：出栏均价：中国（日） 商品猪：出栏均价：河南（日） | | | 3/28 | 12 4/3 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LH2505 | 13225 | 13270 | 45 | 0.3% | 主力合约 | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13440 | 13480 | 40 | 0.3% | | | | LH2509 | 14000 | 13860 | -140 | -1.0% | | | | 全国 | 14.51 | 14.54 | 0.03 | 0.2% | | | 现货价格 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | 河南 | 14.61 | 14.62 | 0.01 | 0.1% | 交割基准区域 | 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/7 生猪周度汇总 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2505 ...

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/7 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： 3 • 国内消息：国务院关税税则委员会公告称，自2025年4月10日12时01分起，对原产于美国的进 口商品加征关税。有关事项如下：对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加 征34%关税；现行保税、减免税政策不变，此次加征的关税不予减免。 • 海外消息：美国股市连续两天天遭受重创，道指节假日下跌近10%，标普500指数跌5.97，创 2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅，纳指跌5.82%，较历史最高收盘纪录下跌超过20%，确认进入技 术性熊市区间。 • 周度总结及后市展望： • 上周沪深300指数弱势下跌，成交下降。近5个交易日主力资金净流出1589亿元，融资资金下降 232亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面，关注关税 政策扰动、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线下方，短期成交量下降，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面， 短期指数下跌，投资者观望为主。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 ...

| | 供应 需求 | 螺纹产量本周保持稳定，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将维持在当前水平，持 续关注钢厂产量变化。 表观需求本周保持稳定，预计高点已现，表观需求较去年同期有大幅回落， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 成本 | 水泥熟料产能利用率保持稳定，基建端仍起托举作用。 螺纹整体库存持续小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库21.04万吨，钢厂库存去库 2.41万吨，社会库存本周去库18.63万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 3 据估算即时高炉成本在2950元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2970元/吨左右。 | | | | 基差与价差 | 期货低位震荡，现货窄幅震荡，基差保持稳定。 | | | 螺纹 | 总结 | 受海外税收政策扰动，商品市场整体承压，钢材价格本周低位震荡，钢厂产 量预计仍将保持在高位，需求端保持疲弱，预计表观需求到达平台期，持续 | | | | | 大幅回升可能性较小，成材矛盾不突出，整体维持区间震荡。 | | | | 近期重要事件 | 4.3 22：00 美国3月MARKIT PMI | | | | | 4.4 美国3月失业率/非农 | 20：30 | | | ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/1 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货反弹回升。资金方面，上周央行净投放3036亿元。上周十年期国债利率略降；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线下方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢高沽空。 • 价格走势：上周国债期货反弹回升 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 102.356 | 102.446 | 0.09% | 169383 | 95571 | 1.77 | | TF2506 | 105.39 | 105.65 | 0.25% | 267555 | 155050 | 1.73 | | T2506 | 107.415 | 107.875 | 0.43% | 359205 | 174289 | 2.06 | | TL2506 | 115.09 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Supply is sufficient, demand is recovering slowly, and pig prices are mainly in a consolidation trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations [3] Group 4: Futures and Spot Data - Futures data: LH2505 closed at 13,225, down 130 (-1.0%); LH2507 closed at 13,440, up 45 (0.3%); LH2509 closed at 14,000, unchanged (0.0%) [3][7] - Spot data: The national average price of commercial pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg (-0.7%); the price in Henan was 14.61 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg (-0.7%). The average slaughter weight was 123.9 kg, up 0.06 kg (0.0%) [3] - Spread data: The 07 - 05 spread was 215, up 175; the 09 - 05 spread was 775, up 130. The 5 - month basis was 1385, up 30; the 7 - month basis was 1170, down 145 [3][13] - Slaughter data: The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up; the frozen product storage rate was 17.14%, up [3] - Profit and cost data: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 121.87 yuan/head, up; the profit from purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, up. The standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, up; the live - white spread was 4.26 yuan/kg, down [3] - Warehouse receipt data: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 65, a decrease of 679 [3][13] Group 5: Piglet and Sow Market - The average price of weaned piglets was 528.57 yuan/head, up 17.62 yuan/head. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged. The domestic inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [21] Group 6: Pig Slaughter and Market Conditions - The national average slaughter weight was 123.84 kg, up 0.09 kg. The average slaughter price was 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. The monthly plan completion rate of large - scale farms was good, and there was no concentrated selling of medium and large pigs [24] - The national average standard - fat spread was - 0.47 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared to last week [28] - The weekly slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 26.56%, up 0.34 percentage points. The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 89.44%, down 0.38 percentage points. The frozen product storage rate of key slaughter enterprises was 17.14%, up 0.09 percentage points [31] Group 7: Profit and Pig - Grain Ratio - The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 121.87 yuan/head, up 20.38 yuan/head; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets was 120.61 yuan/head, down 12.59 yuan/head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to slightly increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [40] Group 8: Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volume and high slaughter weight, with sufficient market supply [43] - Demand: It is currently the traditional consumption off - season, with poor market demand. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased [43] - Cold storage: The cold storage capacity of slaughter enterprises is low, and the cold storage capacity is expected to increase in the later stage [43] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [43] - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43] - Market sentiment: Farmers are relatively optimistic, while the animal health and frozen product trading sectors are relatively pessimistic; the overall market sentiment is neutral [43]

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/3/31 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 周度总结及后市展望： • 国内消息：据国家统计局数据显示，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上 升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升。 3 • 海外消息：美国2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，超过预期的2.7%和前值2.6%；环比则上 涨0.4%，超出预期和前值0.3%，创2024年1月以来新高。 | 股指期货 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2506 | 3882.8 | 3884 | 0.03% | 250972 | 152667 | 1.64 | | IH2506 | 2671.8 | 2677.6 | 0.22% | 3 123912 | 50848 | 2.44 | | IC2506 | 5810.6 | 5766.8 | -0.75% | 175769 | 98522 | 1.78 | | IM2506 ...