Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated in a narrow range. The central bank made a net injection of 23.38 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Domestically, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy for Upgrading Free Trade Pilot Zones", aiming to comprehensively improve the institutional opening-up level, systematic reform effectiveness, and quality of the open economy in free trade pilot zones through about five years of pioneering and integrated exploration. Internationally, Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Sløk, warned that Trump's tariffs have significantly increased the risk of an economic recession this year, with the probability rising to 90% [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The TS2506 contract closed at 102.432, down 0.20%; the TF2506 contract closed at 106.23, down 0.16%; the T2506 contract closed at 109.025, up 0.07%; and the TL2506 contract closed at 119.7, up 0.14% [5]. 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates slightly declined, and the yield spread narrowed [8]. 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [12]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The Treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 14th, and the yield has increased [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic situation shows a weak stabilization, with fiscal and monetary policies remaining loose. In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to wait and see. There are anti - arbitrage opportunities in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures due to the high basis rate [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: The 4 - month Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.6% and the 1 - year LPR at 3.1% [2]. - **Overseas News**: The US President pressured Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates for two consecutive days [2]. - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range oscillation last week with shrinking trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the main funds had a net outflow of 92.5 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 5.6 billion yuan. Technically, the CSI 300 index was below the 40 - day moving average, and its short - term trading volume declined. In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to wait and see [2]. 3.2. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Trends**: Index futures oscillated after a rebound, and the market trading volume declined [6]. - **Basis**: The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there are anti - arbitrage opportunities in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [6]. - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the SSE 50 large - cap stocks have risen by 15.94%, while the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have fallen by 0.39% [6]. - **Futures Contracts**: - IF2506: Closed at 3708.8 this week, up 0.60% from last week, with a trading volume of 249,795 and an open interest of 139,841, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 1.79 [4]. - IH2506: Closed at 2633.4 this week, up 1.46% from last week, with a trading volume of 132,936 and an open interest of 44,395, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 2.99 [4]. - IC2506: Closed at 5400 this week, down 0.45% from last week, with a trading volume of 187,555 and an open interest of 100,600, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 1.86 [4]. - IM2506: Closed at 5642 this week, down 0.53% from last week, with a trading volume of 723,087 and an open interest of 168,687, and a trading volume to open - interest ratio of 4.29 [4]. 3.3. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line; the interest rate was 1.66%, below 3%; the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal [9]. - **Profit**: The year - on - year net profit of A - share companies in the first three quarters turned from a decline to an increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year on year [9]. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.66%, up 2 basis points from last week [9]. 3.4. Index Fund and Valuation Changes - **Funds**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 5.6 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the main funds of A - shares had a cumulative net outflow of 92.5 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. For example, the rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11.65, and the quantile is 36% [11][14]. 3.5. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals**: - **Macro Environment**: In the medium - long term, the currency is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy shows a weak stabilization (bullish) [18]. - **Earnings**: The year - on - year earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased (bullish) [18]. - **Funding**: The margin trading funds decreased, and the main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [18]. - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which provides medium - long - term support for the index (bullish) [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - long - term moving average, with a decline in trading volume, and short - term wide - range oscillation (neutral) [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: April 18, 2025 - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints Iron Ore - Overseas shipments are generally at normal levels,非主流 shipments are declining, and domestic iron concentrate production is stable. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is expected to remain high. Port inventories are gradually decreasing, and there is a short - term upward impulse before the holiday, but medium - term pressure remains [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicle numbers are stable, with obvious supply surplus. Coke prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, but coking profits are still negative. Futures and spot prices lack continuous rebound momentum, and attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 41.8 tons to 2434.8 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, dropping 56 tons to about 472.9 tons this week. Second - quarter arrivals are expected to be at an average level [6]. Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's Q4 2024 iron ore shipments reached 48.9 million tons, a 3.56% quarter - on - quarter increase, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's FY25 Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [16]. Demand - This week, hot metal production remained stable at about 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio declined, and the port clearance volume remained high, with downstream replenishment on demand [21]. Inventory - Sinter powder inventories are at normal levels, and port total inventories decreased by 2.8502 million tons to 140.56 million tons this week. Steel mill imported sinter powder inventories increased by 0.1831 million tons to 12.6678 million tons [27][30]. Futures and Spot Structure - Futures and spot prices are in a low - level shock, with far - month prices at a large discount to spot prices, indicating weak expected demand. Before May Day, the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness is expected to continue [33]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, CPI is generally falling, and tariff issues are causing market sentiment fluctuations. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [40]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipments - Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, and there is a certain relationship between them and iron ore prices [44]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - Hot metal production is expected to remain high. Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time this week, and there is an expectation of a second increase next week, with coke profits recovering [51]. Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking plant coking coal inventories increased by 0.1044 million tons to 9.7613 million tons, and steel mill coking coal inventories increased by 0.046 million tons to about 7.8423 million tons. Port imported coking coal inventories decreased by 0.1154 million tons to 3.3738 million tons, and mine clean coal inventories are at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - Due to obvious supply surplus, all contracts are continuously falling, and downstream purchasing willingness is poor, with no obvious inflection point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, with negative but recovering profits. Independent coking plant production is at a low level, inventories are decreasing, and port inventories have reached a high level for the same period [66]. Coke Term Structure - Coke futures prices are continuously falling, spot prices are in a low - level shock. There are rumors of further price increases, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: April 15, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3]. Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports increasing by 6.9% and imports decreasing by 6%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, said that Trump's tariff policies may trigger an economic recession in the US, which is on the verge of an economic recession [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The central bank net withdrew 28.92 billion yuan last week. The ten - year treasury bond yield decreased and is at a historical low in the long term. The T2506 contract price is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is low. In the medium - to - long term, the upside is limited, and short - term dip - buying is recommended [3]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Market Quotes - **Price Trends**: Last week, treasury bond futures rose sharply and then fluctuated. The weekly price increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.11%, 0.24%, 0.35%, and 0.66% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movements**: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread widened [8]. 4. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting arbitrage opportunities [11]. 5. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis converged [12]. 6. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The treasury bond term structure is steeper than on April 7, and the yield has increased [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index rebounds, and investors are advised to wait and see. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing with loose fiscal and monetary policies, but attention should be paid to risks such as tariff policy disturbances, overseas economic inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and Fed - related policies [2]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Macro and Market Outlook for Stock Index Futures - **Domestic News**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of March, M2 balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and M1 balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [2]. - **Overseas News**: The US Commerce Secretary said that the Trump administration's exemption of full "reciprocal" tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics is a temporary measure, and these devices will be covered by upcoming industry - based tariffs [2]. - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: Last week, the CSI 300 index opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with a significant increase in trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 242 billion yuan, and margin trading funds decreased by 93.7 billion yuan. Technically, the CSI 300 index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume increasing and medium - to - long - term valuations at medium - low levels [2]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with an increase in market trading volume [5]. - **Basis**: The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [5]. - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, large - cap stocks in the SSE 50 have risen by 14.28%, and small - cap stocks in the CSI 1000 have risen by 0.13% [5]. - **Futures Contract Data**: | Futures Contract | Last Week's Close | This Week's Close | Weekly Increase | Weekly Volume | Weekly Open Interest | Volume/Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | IF2506 | 3837 | 3686.6 | - 3.92% | 542267 | 139942 | 3.87 | | IH2506 | 2658 | 2595.6 | - 2.35% | 308515 | 47569 | 6.49 | | IC2506 | 5712.2 | 5424.2 | - 5.04% | 310061 | 96669 | 3.21 | | IM2506 | 6031.8 | 5672.2 | - 5.96% | 1195363 | 173299 | 6.90 | [4] 3.3. Macro and Earnings Growth of Stock Index - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line. The interest rate was 1.64%, below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal. - **Profit**: The year - on - year change of net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year - on - year. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.64%, a decrease of 11 BP from last week [8]. 3.4. Capital and Valuation Changes of Stock Index - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 93.7 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares in the past 5 trading days was 242 billion yuan [13]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11 times, and the percentile is 32% [13]. - **Index Valuation Data**: | Index | Rolling P/E | P/E Percentile | P/B | P/B Percentile | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | CSI 300 | 11.46 | 32% | 1.28 | 8% | | SSE 50 | 10.26 | 42% | 1.16 | 13% | | CSI 500 | 21.34 | 32% | 1.75 | 12% | | CSI 1000 | 24.66 | 39% | 1.91 | 10% | [10] 3.5. Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Stock Index - **Fundamentals**: - **Macro Environment**: In the medium - to - long - term, the currency is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish). - **Earnings**: The earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased year - on - year (bullish). - **Capital**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish). - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - to - long - term (bullish) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - to - long - term moving average, with an increase in trading volume, and short - term wide - range fluctuations (neutral) [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The short - term supply - demand structure of the pig market remains stable with small fluctuations. Recently, due to the Sino - US trade game, the pig market is supported by the feed side, especially the far - month LH2509 contract price is relatively strong. One can cautiously go long at low prices or conduct a month - spread strategy of selling near - month contracts and buying far - month contracts. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies on single commodities [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Weekly Summary - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 contracts increased by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 3.5% respectively. The LH2509 is the main contract [3][5]. - **Spot Data**: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter increased by 0.1%, and the price in Henan (the delivery benchmark area) increased by 0.3%. The average slaughter weight of sample enterprises increased by 0.1% [3]. - **Spread and Basis**: The 07 - 05 spread decreased by 5, and the 09 - 05 spread increased by 375. The basis of the 7 - month contract increased by 45, and the basis of the 9 - month contract decreased by 335 [3][11]. - **Slaughter End**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points [3][31]. - **Profit and Cost**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 129.30 yuan per head, down; the purchased piglet profit was 65.80 yuan per head, down. The standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kilogram, up; the hair - white spread was 4.18 yuan per kilogram, down [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [3]. 3.2 Pig Inventory and Production - **Piglets and Sows**: The average price of weaned piglets was 533.33 yuan per head, unchanged from last week, and the average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan per head, also unchanged. It is expected that the inventory of breeding sows in China will remain stable with minor fluctuations [20]. - **Commercial Pig Inventory**: As the temperature rises and pig production capacity recovers, the inventory of commercial pigs in April is expected to increase month - on - month [20]. - **Slaughter Weight and Quantity**: The national average slaughter weight of pigs was 123.98 kg, up 0.07 kg from last week. The average slaughter price was 14.55 yuan per kg, up 0.01 yuan per kg. The monthly slaughter plan of large - scale farms increased, and the slaughter volume in April is expected to increase month - on - month [24]. 3.3 Pig Price Spread - **Standard - Fat Spread**: The national weekly average standard - fat spread was - 0.23 yuan per kg, narrowing by 0.09 yuan per kg compared with last week. The spread is expected to continue to narrow, but the trend will slow down [28]. 3.4 Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter Enterprise Indicators**: The weekly slaughter开工 rate was 27.36%, up 0.16 percentage points. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.38%, up 0.12 percentage points. In the short term, the fresh - sales rate may further decline, and the frozen product inventory will continue to rise [31]. - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 129.30 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.67 yuan per head from last week; the weekly average profit of purchasing piglets was 65.80 yuan per head, a decrease of 39.06 yuan per head. The pig - grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to fall further [40]. 3.5 Market Information Summary - **Supply**: Large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes and high slaughter weights, with sufficient market supply [43]. - **Demand**: It is the traditional consumption off - season with poor market demand, but the entry of second - fattening after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival is more active than before [43]. - **Policy**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a new management method for breeding livestock and poultry production and operation licenses, which will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on imported goods from the US, which is bullish for pig prices in the short term [43]. - **Non - African Swine Fever**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some areas, with relatively limited impact [43]. - **Market Sentiment**: The Sino - US trade game makes feed prices firm, which is expected to provide some support [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall demand remains stable with high pig iron production and low sinter powder inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation before the holiday [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is in excess, and both the futures and spot prices lack the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Overseas Supply - The overseas shipment of iron ore is generally at a normal level. The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2548000 tons to 23.93 million tons this week, and the shipment from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased to the average level, dropping by 111000 tons to about 5.289 million tons. The arrival volume is expected to remain at an average level in the second quarter [6]. - Fortescue's iron ore shipment in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q4 iron ore production was 85.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%, and the annual production reached the upper limit of the forecast and the 2025 production target was raised to 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q4 iron ore production was 86.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the shipment volume was 85.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, with the 2025 shipment target unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Q4 iron ore production in the Pilbara business was 73.071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [18]. Demand - The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. This week, the pig iron production increased by 14900 tons to about 2.4022 million tons, the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory as needed [2][24]. Inventory - The sinter powder inventory remains at a low level, and the total port inventory decreased slightly by 1273900 tons to 143.4102 million tons this week, but the overall level is still high and is expected to remain in a balanced state. The imported sinter powder inventory of steel mills decreased steadily, dropping by 172300 tons to 12.4847 million tons this week [30][33]. Futures - Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices of iron ore are oscillating at a low level and are expected to remain in the range - bound state before May Day [37]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, the CPI has generally declined, and the tariff has affected market sentiment. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [43]. Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipment No specific analysis content provided other than the chart. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - The pig iron production is expected to remain at a high level. The coke profit continues to be negative, and the coke production is expected to remain at the current level [48][51]. Coking Coal Inventory - The independent coking coal inventory rebounded from a low level, increasing by 141000 tons to 9.6569 million tons this week, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased slightly by 100800 tons to about 7.7963 million tons, both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. The port - imported coking coal inventory continued to decline and remained stable this week, dropping slightly by 9600 tons to 3.4892 million tons, and the mine clean coal inventory is at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the 05 contract has been declining, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, with no substantial turning point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - The coke enterprises' intention to raise prices is difficult to achieve. The independent coke production is at a low level, the inventory has been declining, but the port coke inventory has rebounded to a high level compared to the same period. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, the pig iron production increased slightly by 14900 tons to 2.4022 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 49 yuan per ton [66][71]. Coke Term Structure - The coke futures price has been continuously declining, the decline of the spot price is weaker than that of the futures, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Affected by tariff factors, the commodity market has significantly declined, and steel prices have fluctuated at a low level this week. Steel mill production is expected to remain high, while the demand side remains weak. Apparent demand is expected to reach a plateau, with a low possibility of a significant and continuous rebound. Given the changing market environment, it is recommended to short sell rebar at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Section Section 1: Rebar Supply - Mysteel's weekly production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, with electric furnace production rising by 3.13 tons and blast furnace production increasing by 0.59 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that steel production is at a high level [10]. - Steel mill production is currently stable, and with good profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3]. Section 2: Rebar Demand - Apparent demand has entered a stable phase, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in demand in the first half of the year. Overall, it is significantly weaker than the same period last year. Cement clinker capacity utilization remained stable this week, and Mysteel's daily transactions were generally weak, consistent with the performance of apparent demand [15]. Section 3: Rebar Inventory - Rebar total inventory continued to decline slightly this week. Hot - rolled coil inventory remained stable. Rebar mill inventory increased by 7.54 tons to around 214.66 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.10 tons, and total inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 797.76 tons. The SAC旬度 data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises has declined from a high level [21]. Section 4: Rebar Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,880 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is around 2,930 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,924 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on April 9th, which was 2,930 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 6 yuan/ton [24]. Section 5: Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian decreased from 3,230 yuan to 3,170 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan. The price of Tangshan Qian'an billet decreased from 3,050 yuan to 2,970 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan [27]. Section 6: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore fluctuated widely. Due to the contract - switching factor, the main contract's rebar - to - iron ore ratio strengthened slightly. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and the ferrous metal market is expected to remain under pressure [33]. Section 7: Statistical Bureau - Related Data - In January - February, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.8% and 29.6% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment narrowed by 0.8 percentage points compared with January - December, while the decline in new housing construction area widened by 6.6 percentage points [37].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report [1] - Report issuer: Huajin Futures Research Institute [1] - Report date: April 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly, with the central bank net withdrawing 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and remained at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 4: Macro and Market Outlook Weekly Macro and News - Domestic news: Affected by overseas tariff shocks, the A - share market adjusted on Monday. Near the market close, Central Huijin announced its confidence in the Chinese capital market, its recognition of the current A - share allocation value, and its plan to continue increasing holdings of ETFs to maintain market stability. - Foreign news: The US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, which China firmly opposed. If the US tariff measures were implemented, China would take counter - measures [4] Treasury Bond Market Outlook - Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The central bank net withdrew 50.19 billion yuan. The ten - year treasury bond interest rate decreased and was at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract was above the 40 - day moving average. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the treasury bond market was limited, and short - term dips were recommended for buying [3] Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Market Conditions - Price trend: Last week, treasury bond futures rose significantly. The weekly increases of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were 0.08%, 0.46%, 0.65%, and 2.37% respectively. The weekly trading volumes were 150,904, 199,092, 274,713, and 463,907 respectively, and the weekly open interests were 99,012, 164,270, 183,347, and 105,109 respectively [5] Group 6: Treasury Bond Yield Changes - Yield changes: Last week, interest rates generally decreased, and the yield spread narrowed. The interest rates of 3M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y treasury bonds showed a downward trend from March 28 to April 3 [8] Group 7: Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - Treasury bond CTD bond arbitrage situation: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures was higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities. For the T2506 and TF2506 contracts, the IRR showed an upward trend from March 28 to April 3 [11] Group 8: Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - TF - T spread: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened. From March 28 to April 3, the TF - T spread of the T2506 - TF2506 contracts changed from - 2.225 to - 2.440 [12] Group 9: Treasury Bond Term Structure - Treasury bond term structure: The treasury bond term structure flattened compared to last week, and the yield decreased compared to March 31 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand recovers relatively slowly. Affected by the Sino-US trade game, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the live pig price is relatively firm due to the support from the feed side. The overall trend of live pig prices is mainly consolidation. It is recommended to wait and see for now, pay attention to the later development of the trade game, and relevant enterprises are advised to carry out hedging operations according to their business conditions. The main contract is gradually shifting to LH2509, and investors should pay attention to the rollover risk [3] Summary by Directory I. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: LH2505 closed at 13,270, up 45 or 0.3%; LH2507 closed at 13,480, up 40 or 0.3%; LH2509 closed at 13,860, down 140 or -1.0% [3][7] - Spot prices: The national average price of commercial pig slaughter was 14.54 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan or 0.2%; the price in Henan was 14.62 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.1% [3][7] II. Inter-month Spread, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 07-05 spread was 210, down 5; the 09-05 spread was 590, down 185 [12] - Basis: The basis for the May contract was 1350, down 35; the basis for the July contract was 1140, down 30 [12] - Warehouse receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 65 [3][12] III. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows and commercial pigs is presented in the report, and it is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in April may continue to increase month-on-month [15][21] - Inventory structure: The proportion of different weight ranges of live pigs is shown, and the price of weaned piglets is 533.33 yuan/head, up 4.76 yuan/head. It is expected that the price will remain stable at a high level in the short term. The price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week, and the inventory of breeding sows is expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [20][21] V. Standard-Fat Spread - National average: The weekly average standard-fat spread was -0.32 yuan/kg, narrowing by 0.15 yuan/kg compared with last week. The prices of standard and fat pigs both declined, and the price of fat pigs decreased more significantly due to weakened demand with rising temperatures [24][25] - Regional differences: The standard-fat spread in various regions showed different degrees of change, with most regions narrowing [25] VI. Slaughter End - Slaughter rate: The weekly slaughter rate was 27.20%, up 0.6 percentage points. The market supply is sufficient, but the sales of white-striped pork are affected by downstream price pressure [28] - Fresh sales rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 89.4%, slightly down 0.04 percentage points [28] - Frozen storage rate: The frozen storage rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.26%, up 0.12 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the fresh sales rate will fluctuate slightly and the frozen storage rate will continue to rise moderately [28] VII. White-striped Pork and Wholesale Market - White-striped pork price: The price of the top three grades of white-striped pork and the difference between live pig and white-striped pork prices are presented in the report [29] - Consumption situation: The comparison of the average wholesale prices of related meats shows the consumption situation of pork [35][36] VIII. Profit and Cost - Profit: The average weekly profit of self-breeding and self-raising was 131.97 yuan/head, an increase of 10.10 yuan/head compared with last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 104.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.75 yuan/head compared with last week [38] - Pig-grain ratio: The pig-grain ratio continued to decline, and it is expected to decline further with the Sino-US trade game and firm feed prices [38]