Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, with second - fattening and large pigs from散户 being sold successively, and scale farms expected to reduce supply at the beginning of the month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand will decline significantly, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The pig market has no obvious boost and is mainly in a weak consolidation trend [2]. - The LH2509 contract is mainly in a recent consolidation trend, while the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of LH2507 is 13,205, with no change; LH2509 is 13,605, up 90 (0.7%); LH2511 is 13,410, up 230 (1.7%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The national commodity pig出栏 price is 14.43 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg (1.5%); in Henan, it is 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg (2.7%). The出栏 average weight of sample enterprises is 124.13 kg, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The 09 - 07 spread is 400, up 90; the 11 - 09 spread is - 195, up 160. The 7 - month basis is 1315, up 300; the 9 - month basis is 915, up 210 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts is 0, a decrease of 663 [2]. Piglet and Sow Market - **Piglets**: The average price of weaned piglets is 503.57 yuan/head, down 6.91 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market has declined slightly. Some farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased [20]. - **Sows**: The average market price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks. The market replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and large - scale farms mostly keep sows for self - use, with limited transaction volume [20]. - **Pig Inventory**: From September to December last year, the inventory of breeding sows increased monthly, and the pig production capacity recovered. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in May will continue to increase month - on - month [20]. Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate is 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises is 89.25%, up 0.16 percentage points. The frozen - product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises is 17.28%, unchanged from last week [28]. - **Consumption**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, there is no short - term holiday boost, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The slaughter rate still has room to decline [40]. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 91.77 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.67 yuan/head from last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 36.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.30 yuan/head from last week [37]. Market Information - **Supply**: The proportion of large - weight pig sources is relatively high, and second - fattening pigs are continuously being sold, so the market supply remains loose [40]. - **Policy**: The "Measures for the Administration of Licensing for the Production and Operation of Breeding Livestock and Poultry" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. There are also market rumors about guiding the pig industry, such as not increasing sows, reducing the weight of fattening pigs to 120KG, and not encouraging second - fattening [40]. - **Disease**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [40]. - **Market Sentiment**: Pig prices are fluctuating, showing a short - term stable and weak trend [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar season. Currently, many institutions expect Brazil and India to increase production, leading to an overall increase in global sugar production and a supply surplus [6]. - In China, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was low. Although the current import volume is relatively low, with the recent issuance of import licenses, there may be a surge in imports in Q3 [6]. - Given the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a short - term bearish view is recommended for Zhengzhou sugar futures [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus - Multiple institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [4]. - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season [5]. - Multiple institutions expect India's sugar production to increase year - on - year in the 2025/26 new sugar season [6]. - In China, the sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production is expected to slightly increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. Price Information - As of the first half of May, Brazil's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.99 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [6]. - From the first to the fourth week of May, Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year decrease of 779,800 tons or 23.15%. The number of waiting ships at ports increased [6]. - Currently, many institutions expect Brazil's sugar production to increase in the 2025/26 season [6]. - India's Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for June 2025 is 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons [6]. - The NFCSF expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption needs in key months from October to November 2025 [6]. - In April, China's cumulative sugar sales ratio was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [6]. - At the end of May, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 6,025 yuan/ton, Guangxi Sugar - making Group quoted between 6,090 - 6,190 yuan/ton, Yunnan Sugar - making Group quoted between 5,880 - 5,920 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,360 - 6,880 yuan/ton. The inventory demand for the summer consumption peak is not obvious, and the overall spot trading is average [6]. - The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread in Brazil is 2.62, with minor fluctuations [6]. - The net long position of CFTC has not changed much recently [6]. - The import profit has increased [6]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Export Availability - According to the USDA's May global supply - demand report, global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million metric tons. The increase in production in Brazil and India will offset the decrease in the EU. Exports are expected to decline mainly due to reduced shipments from the EU and Thailand. Ending inventory is expected to increase mainly because of India and China [9]. - Brazil: Due to favorable weather, production is expected to increase by 1 million tons to a record 44.7 million tons. The sugar - making ratio will drop from 51% in the 2024/25 season to 49%. Sugar consumption will slightly decline, and exports will increase due to increased production [9]. - India: Due to favorable weather and expanded planting area, production is expected to surge by 25% to 35.3 million tons. The growth of the food service industry will drive up sugar consumption, and the increased supply will boost both exports and inventory [9]. - Thailand: An increase in sugarcane production and sugar extraction rate will drive a 2% increase in production to 10.3 million tons. The slowdown in demand from export - oriented food processing enterprises will slow down consumption growth. Facing competition from major exporters like Brazil, exports are expected to decline, and inventory will remain flat [9]. - China: The expansion of sugarcane planting and improved growth conditions for sugar beets are expected to increase production by 500,000 tons to 11.5 million tons. Despite domestic production growth, imports need to be increased to balance supply and demand. Consumption and exports remain stable, and inventory will increase as consumption slowly recovers [9]. - EU: A 10% reduction in sugar beet planting area in major producing regions such as France and Germany will lead to a 9% decline in total production to 15 million tons. Imports will increase due to reduced production, exports are expected to decline, and consumption and ending inventory will remain basically the same [9]. Regional Sugar Production and Supply - Demand Details - Brazil: An analysis by JOB Economics and Planning predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2025/26 season will remain at the 2024/25 season's level of 35.1 million tons. Sugar production is expected to increase by 5% to 46 million tons, close to the record in the 2023/24 season. This growth is due to an increased sugar - making ratio, but the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to decline by 1.45% to 673 million tons [22]. - India: As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, there were 19 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 4. The crushed sugarcane was 275.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 35.655 million tons or 11.44%. Sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 million tons or 18.33% [28]. - Thailand: As of March 23, 2025, in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 91.6207 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9598 million tons or 12.2%. The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.61%, a year - on - year increase of 0.27%. The sugar extraction rate was 10.888%, a year - on - year increase of 0.227%. Sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% [36]. - United States: The U.S. sugar supply - demand balance shows changes in various indicators such as beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2019/20 to 2025/26 [41]. China's Sugar Market - China's sugar market shows data on single - month sugar sales, industrial inventory, single - month sugar production, cumulative sales - to - production ratio, monthly imports, and import prices [44][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - A - share market shows a situation where the macro environment is moderately loose, the profit situation has improved, but the capital situation is unfavorable, and the overall valuation is at a medium - low level, which is conducive to the long - term performance of the index [10][12][13] Summary by Directory I. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month [4] - **Overseas News**: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out the risk of stagflation [4] - **Market Situation**: Last week, the CSI 300 index fluctuated weakly with low trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 100.2 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 100 million yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Technically, the CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with low short - term trading volume and medium - low long - term valuation [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] II. Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price and Volume**: Index futures fluctuated weakly with low market trading volume [7] - **Basis**: The current index basis rate has declined, and there are no arbitrage opportunities in the index [7] - **Return**: Since 2024, Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.86%, and CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 2.93% [7] - **Contract Data**: The table shows the closing prices, weekly returns, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume/open interest ratios of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts last week and this week [6] III. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI (49.4) was below the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.72) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8%, with moderate relaxation [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year corporate net profit changed from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, up 1 BP from last week [10] IV. Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 100 million yuan in the past 5 trading days; the cumulative net outflow of main funds of A - shares was 100.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 11.73, with a percentile of 38%; the P/B ratio is 1.29, with a percentile of 9% [12][13] V. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Long - term and medium - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish) [17] - **Profit Situation**: A - share corporate profits increased year - on - year in the first quarter (bullish) [17] - **Capital Situation**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [17] - **Valuation Situation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the index in the long - term (bullish) [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, with low trading volume, and short - term fluctuations are neutral [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Rebar by Huajin Futures, dated May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the black market declined significantly. Demand is entering the off - season and is expected to be under pressure. With high macro - environmental uncertainty and insufficient market speculation sentiment, rebar prices are expected to have further downside [3] Group 4: Supply - Mysteel's rebar production this week dropped by 5.97 tons to 225.51 tons, with electric furnace production falling by 3.49 tons and blast furnace production by 2.48 tons. The SAC steel production data shows high output levels. With good steel mill profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10] Group 5: Demand - The apparent demand for rebar remained stable this week but was weak overall. Third - quarter demand is expected to be lackluster, and as it enters the off - season, demand will be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker indicates some support from the infrastructure sector [3][15] Group 6: Inventory - Rebar's total inventory decreased slightly this week. The total inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, with mill inventory down 1.30 tons to 186.46 tons and social inventory down 21.87 tons to 394.59 tons. SAC data shows that member enterprises' steel inventories are at the average level [3][19] Group 7: Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,770 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,850 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,889 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the May 28th billet price of 2,900 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 11 yuan/ton [24] Group 8: Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices have been falling, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis has widened. The current price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week [3][26][27] Group 9: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore is oscillating at a high level, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio of the main contract remains low. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metals market is expected to show limited performance [33] Group 10: Statistical Bureau Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [37] Group 11: Upcoming Important Events - May 29, 20:30: US Q1 real GDP quarterly revised value - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE - May 31, 09:30: China May PMI - June 2, 22:00: US May ISM manufacturing index - June 5, 20:15: Eurozone interest rate decision [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/26 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 国内消息：六大国有银行集体下调利率，一年期定存首次跌破1%，活期利率仅0.05%。近一周 以来，十余家中小银行紧随大行降息步伐，将最高定存利率压至1.7%以下。 3 • 海外消息：美国总统特朗普威胁称，将自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税，因为欧 盟在贸易方面"很难打交道"。 • 上周沪深300指数冲高回落，成交下降。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出1282亿元，融 资资金下降56亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面， 关注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线上方，短期成交略降，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数震荡，投资者逢低做多。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3846 3846.2 0.01% 288876 152612 1.89 IH2506 2695.2 2693 -0.08% 150660 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] - There are arbitrage opportunities in Treasury bond futures as the IRR is higher than the short-term financing rate this week [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the service production index increased by 6%, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%. From January to April, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, and after excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8%. From January to April, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8%. Dario warned that Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating underestimates the risks faced by US Treasury bonds, as it does not consider the risk of the federal government repaying debts by printing money [4] - **Treasury Bond Market Outlook**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The central bank net withdrew 47.51 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upside space is limited. Short-term investors can buy on dips [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures weakened and declined. The week-on-week decline rates of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 were -0.15%, -0.50%, -0.52%, and -1.35% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [9] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Treasury Bond CTD Bond Arbitrage Situation**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [12] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [13] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure flattened compared to May 13th, and short- and medium-term yields increased [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term index is expected to fluctuate, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [7] - The CSI 300 index is near the medium - and long - term moving average, with slightly increased trading volume, and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 371.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to April, it was 1.61845 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% [4] - **Overseas News**: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted its outlook from "negative" to "stable" [4] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 index rose first and then fell, with increased trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 91 billion yuan, and margin trading funds increased by 2.5 billion yuan [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with slightly increased short - term trading volume, and its medium - and long - term valuation is at a medium - low level [4] II. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Futures Performance**: IF2506 closed at 3846 this week, up 0.98% from last week; IH2506 closed at 2695.2, up 1.09%; IC2506 closed at 5601.8, down 0.05%; IM2506 closed at 5933.8, down 0.19% [6] - **Market Features**: Stock index futures fluctuated, and market trading volume increased. The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures. Since 2024, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 large - cap stocks have risen 18.52%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 3.64% [7] III. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49 (below the boom - bust line), the interest rate was 1.7% (below 3%), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8% [10] - **Profit**: In the first quarter, the net profit of A - share enterprises increased year - on - year compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was 1.7%, up 6 BP from last week [10] IV. Stock Index Funds and Valuation Changes - **Funds**: The margin trading balance of A - shares increased by 2.5 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 91 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, and the percentile is 39% [14] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals** - **Macro Environment**: Medium - and long - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing [18] - **Earnings**: The earnings of A - shares increased year - on - year in the first quarter [18] - **Funds**: Margin trading funds increased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow [18] - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - and long - term [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - and long - term moving average, with slightly increased trading volume, and is slightly stronger in the short - term [17]

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].