股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/26 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 国内消息：六大国有银行集体下调利率，一年期定存首次跌破1%，活期利率仅0.05%。近一周 以来，十余家中小银行紧随大行降息步伐，将最高定存利率压至1.7%以下。 3 • 海外消息：美国总统特朗普威胁称，将自6月1日起对进口自欧盟的商品征收50%关税，因为欧 盟在贸易方面"很难打交道"。 • 上周沪深300指数冲高回落，成交下降。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出1282亿元，融 资资金下降56亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面， 关注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线上方，短期成交略降，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数震荡，投资者逢低做多。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3846 3846.2 0.01% 288876 152612 1.89 IH2506 2695.2 2693 -0.08% 150660 ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/20 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货弱势下行。资金方面，上周央行净回笼4751亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线上方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢低买入。 国内消息：4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，服务业生产指数增长6%，社会消费品零售 总额增长5.1%。1-4月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长4%，扣除房地产开发投资后增长8%；1-4月全国 房地产开发投资同比下降10.3%，新建商品房销售面积下降2.8%。 国外消息：达里奥周一警告称，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级甚至低估了美国国债面临的风险。他指出， 穆迪没有考虑到联邦政府通过印钞来偿还债务的风险。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货弱势下行 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： • 上周沪深300指数冲高回落，成交上升。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出910亿元，融资 资金增长25亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面，关 注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线上方，短期成交略升，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数震荡，投资者逢低做多。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3808.6 3846 0.98% 305286 154933 1.97 IH2506 2666.2 2695.2 1.09% 173620 54791 3.17 IC2506 5604.8 5601.8 -0.05% 280929 116190 2.42 IM2506 5945.2 5933.8 -0.19% 742837 188635 3.94 • 周度总结及后市展望： 3 • 国内消息：4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].

华 金 期 货 黑 色 原 料 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/16 | | | 铁矿周度汇总 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应 | 海外发运整体维持在正常水平，本周澳巴发运保持稳定，非主流 发运大幅回升，国产铁精粉产量保持稳定，关注海外发运变化。 3 | | | 需求 | 钢厂利润尚可，预计铁水产量仍将高位波动，持续关注产量端变 | | | | 化。 | | 铁矿石 | 库存 | 疏港量维持在高位，烧结粉库存维持正常水平，需求端短期高位 波动，港口库存保持稳中略降节奏。 | | | 基差与价差 | 青岛港pb粉大幅回升，09合约表现较强，整体供应充裕，预计持 | | | | 续回升空间较小。 | | | 总结 | 铁水产量高位波动，尽管钢厂烧结粉库存较低，但刚需有走弱预 | | | | 期，原料端预计难有持续回升空间。 | | | 风险因素 | 成材需求再度大幅回落，铁水产量持续维持在低位。 | 数据来源&制图：我的钢铁、万得、华金期货 24-05 一、铁矿石海外供应 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 ...

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/15 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 | | | 螺纹产量本周小幅回升，整体维持低位波动，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 维持在当前水平，持续关注钢厂产量与利润的边际变化。 | | | 需求 | | | 表观需求本周小幅回升，节后逐渐进入淡季，预计需求仍将会承压，水泥熟 | | | | | | | | 料产能利用率维持在高位，关注需求端近期表现。 | | | 库存 | | | 螺纹整体库存小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库33.76万吨，钢厂库存回升3.28万 | | | | | | | 3 | 吨，社会库存本周去库30.48万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 | | | 成本 | | 据估算即时高炉成本在2900元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2900元/吨左右。 | | | | | 基差与价差 | | | | 期货低位回升，现货小幅提涨价，基差逐渐收敛。 | | 螺纹 | 总结 | | | 本周黑色低位回升，市场修复悲观预期，但需求面临淡季，预计持续回升可 | ...

一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/13 数据来源：博易大师、华金期货 • 周度宏观及消息面 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货窄幅震荡。资金方面，上周央行净回笼7817亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低位。 技术上，T2506合约短期价格位于40日均线上方。操作方面，国债市场价格高位震荡，利率仍处低位 区间，中长期看上方空间有限，短期逢低买入。 国内消息：中美经贸高层会谈联合声明发布，双方同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消共计91%的加 征关税，中方相应取消91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24% 的反制关税。 国外消息：追踪美联储会议预期的利率互换合约最新显示，美联储今年可能只会降息约55个基点，较上 周五75个基点的押注进一步显著下降。交易员们还预计首次降息要到9月份才会启动。 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货窄幅震荡 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

股指期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/12 一、股指期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面： 3 • 国内消息：中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院 副总理何立峰在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、 具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。 • 海外消息：5月10日巴基斯坦外长达尔表示，巴基斯坦和印度已同意立即停火。同日，印度外交 秘书唐勇胜证实，印巴已同意停火。 • 周度总结及后市展望： • 上周沪深300指数震荡偏强，成交略升。资金方面，近5个交易日主力资金净流出740亿元，融资 资金增长11亿元；宏观层面，国内经济弱势企稳，财政政策、货币政策保持宽松；风险方面，关 注关税政策、海外经济通胀、地缘政治冲突及美联储相关政策。 • 技术上，沪深300指数位于40均线附近，短期成交略升，中长期估值位于中低位。观点方面，短 期指数企稳震荡，投资者观望为主。 二、股指期货行情及基差 3 股指期货 上周收盘 本周收盘 周涨幅 周成交量 周持仓量 成交量/持仓量 IF2506 3716.2 3808.6 2.49% 2028 ...

国债期货市场周报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/29 一、国债期货宏观及市场展望 • 周度宏观及消息面 二、国债期货行情 • 价格走势：上周国债期货小幅回调 | 名称 | 上周收盘 | 本周收盘 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交量 | 周持仓量 | 成交量/持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2506 | 102.432 | 102.284 | -0.14% | 169346 | 95758 | 1.77 | | TF2506 | 106.23 | 105.935 | -0.28% | 222653 | 161177 | 1.38 | | T2506 | 109.025 | 108.77 | -0.23% | 287933 | 184318 | 1.56 | | TL2506 | 119.7 | 119.68 | -0.02% | 468861 | 105659 | 4.44 | 数据来源：博易大师、华金期货 • 国债后市展望 上周国债期货小幅回调。资金方面，上周央行净投放8640亿元。上周十年期国债利率略升；长期看， 十年期国债利率处于历史低 ...