Report Overview - The report is the "Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report" released on May 16, 2025, covering iron ore and coking coal and coke markets [1] 1. Iron Ore Market 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 1.2 Core View - Iron ore supply is abundant, while the upward potential of prices is limited. The iron ore market is expected to remain stable with a slight decline in the short - term. The black market is unlikely to continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [2][33] 1.3 Summary by Section 1.3.1 Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 117.9 tons to 2522.5 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded by 96.4 tons to about 606.5 tons, and the arrival volume is expected to remain average in the third quarter [5] 1.3.2 Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's FY25Q3 iron ore shipments reached 4610 tons, a 7% quarter - on - quarter decrease, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 1.9 - 2 billion tons. Vale's 25Q1 production was 6766 tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 3.25 - 3.35 billion tons. Rio Tinto's 25Q1 production was 6977 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 3.23 - 3.38 billion tons. BHP's FY25Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 6780 tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 2.82 - 2.94 billion tons [15] 1.3.3 Demand - Iron ore demand is supported by high - level iron - making water production. This week, iron - making water production remained high, with a decline of 0.87 tons to about 244.77 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high [21] 1.3.4 Inventory - Sinter powder inventory is at a normal level, and the total port inventory is stable with a slight decline. This week, the total port inventory decreased by 71.32 tons to 14166.09 tons. Steel mill's imported sinter powder inventory increased by 7.58 tons to 1301.03 tons [27][31] 1.3.5 Futures and Spot Structure - The futures and spot prices fluctuated widely, and the far - month prices rose significantly. It is expected that the black market will not continue to rise significantly in the third quarter [33] 1.3.6 Relationship with Foreign Exchange - Powell said the Fed needs to further observe market data to decide whether to cut interest rates, and the US dollar index has stabilized [40] 1.3.7 Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipments - Not further elaborated in the report 2. Coking Coal and Coke Market 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2.2 Core View - The supply of coking coal and coke is in excess, and the prices of both futures and spot have no momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45] 2.3 Summary by Section 2.3.1 Demand and Supply - The passing vehicle numbers at the Ganqimaodu and Ceke ports are stable. Iron - making water production remains high. Coke enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton, and the coking profit has rebounded but is still weak. Coke production has continued to rise to the average level [45] 2.3.2 Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is at a low level, decreasing by 31.69 tons to 884.93 tons this week. Steel mill's coking coal inventory increased slightly by 4 tons to about 791.21 tons. Port imported coking coal inventory decreased continuously and then stabilized this week, increasing by 8.28 tons to 306.09 tons. Mine clean coal inventory is at a high level and continued to rise this week [54][57] 2.3.3 Coking Coal Term Structure - The supply of coking coal is in obvious excess, the price is oscillating at the bottom, and the downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor. There is no substantial turning point in the short term [63] 2.3.4 Coke Inventory - The second - round coke price increase has not materialized. This week, some enterprises proposed the first - round price cut of 50 yuan/ton. Coking profit has continued to rebound, independent coking production has continued to rise to the average level, steel mill's demand is strong, and the available days of coke inventory have continued to decline. This week, the total coke inventory decreased slightly, iron - making water production remained stable, and the national average coking profit was about 7 yuan/ton [66][71] 2.3.5 Coke Term Structure - Coke spot prices are oscillating at a low level, futures prices have dropped significantly, the basis has narrowed, and the overall structure is at par [74]

华 金 期 货 螺 纹 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/15 螺纹周度汇总 | | 供应 | | | 螺纹产量本周小幅回升，整体维持低位波动，钢厂利润可观，预计产量仍将 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 维持在当前水平，持续关注钢厂产量与利润的边际变化。 | | | 需求 | | | 表观需求本周小幅回升，节后逐渐进入淡季，预计需求仍将会承压，水泥熟 | | | | | | | | 料产能利用率维持在高位，关注需求端近期表现。 | | | 库存 | | | 螺纹整体库存小幅回落，螺纹总库存去库33.76万吨，钢厂库存回升3.28万 | | | | | | | 3 | 吨，社会库存本周去库30.48万吨，持续关注产量与需求的平衡。 | | | 成本 | | 据估算即时高炉成本在2900元/吨左右，15日平均成本在2900元/吨左右。 | | | | | 基差与价差 | | | | 期货低位回升，现货小幅提涨价，基差逐渐收敛。 | | 螺纹 | 总结 | | | 本周黑色低位回升，市场修复悲观预期，但需求面临淡季，预计持续回升可 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: Domestically, the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US canceled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly canceled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. Abroad, interest rate swap contracts tracking Fed meeting expectations show that the Fed may only cut interest rates by about 55 basis points this year, a significant drop from the 75 - basis - point bet last Friday. Traders expect the first rate cut to start in September [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank net withdrew 78.17 billion yuan. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly rose last week and is at a historical low in the long - term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The Treasury market price is fluctuating at a high level, and the yield is still in a low range. In the medium - and long - term, the upside space is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short - term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The weekly changes of TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 were - 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.06%, and - 0.33% respectively [5] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long - term interest rates rose slightly, and the yield spread widened [8] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: This week, the IRR of Treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, indicating arbitrage opportunities [11] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis also narrowed [12] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Changes**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 6th, and the yield has risen [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index stabilizes and fluctuates, and investors are advised to wait and see [2] - The stock index futures fluctuate strongly, and the market trading volume slightly increases. There is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [6] 3. Summary by Directory I. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress [2] - **Overseas News**: On May 10th, Pakistan and India agreed to an immediate cease - fire [2] - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: The CSI 300 index fluctuated strongly last week with slightly increased trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 74 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds increased by 1.1 billion yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stable, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Risks include tariff policies, overseas economic inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and Fed policies [2] II. Stock Index Futures Quotes and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures fluctuated strongly, and market trading volume slightly increased [6] - **Basis**: The current stock index basis rate is high, and there is an arbitrage opportunity in the CSI 1000 index futures [6] - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, the Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 17.09%, and the CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 3.88% [6] III. Stock Index Macro and Profit Growth - **Macro**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49 (below the boom - bust line), the interest rate was 1.64% (below 3%), and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7% [9] - **Profit**: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year net profit of enterprises turned from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [9] - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was 1.64%, unchanged from last week [9] IV. Stock Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares increased by 1.1 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 74 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [14] - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 12 times, and the percentile is 36% [14] V. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The medium - long - term monetary policy is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy is weakly stable. The profit in the first quarter of A - shares increased year - on - year. The margin trading funds increased, and the main funds had a short - term net outflow. The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - long term [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, the trading volume slightly increases, and it fluctuates strongly in the short term [17]

Report Title - "Treasury Bond Futures Market Weekly Report" [1] Report Information - Reported by Huajin Futures Research Institute on April 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Mao Weiwei, with qualification number F3051431/Z0013833 [21] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10-year treasury bond yield slightly increased, and in the long term, it remains at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40-day moving average. The treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] Section Summaries I. Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Macro and News**: Domestically, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on policies for stable employment, economy, and high - quality development. The central bank deputy governor said that timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts would be made to maintain ample liquidity and introduce incremental policies. Internationally, the US Treasury Secretary said the US is negotiating customized agreements with 15 - 18 "important trading partners", with one likely to be with India [4] - **Market Outlook**: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The central bank net injected 86.4 billion yuan. The 10 - year treasury bond yield slightly increased and is at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short - term price of the T2506 contract is above the 40 - day moving average. The market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is in a low range. In the medium to long term, the upside is limited, and short - term buying on dips is recommended [3] II. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Movement**: Last week, treasury bond futures slightly pulled back. The TS2506, TF2506, T2506, and TL2506 contracts had weekly declines of 0.14%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.02% respectively [5] III. Treasury Bond Yield Changes - **Yield Movement**: Last week, long - term interest rates slightly increased, and the yield spread narrowed [8] IV. Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: This week, the IRR of treasury bond futures is higher than the short - term financing rate, presenting an arbitrage opportunity [11] V. Treasury Bond Futures Spread and Basis - **TF - T Spread**: The spread between 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures narrowed, and their basis remained stable [12] VI. Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Term Structure Change**: The latest treasury bond term structure flattened compared to April 21, and the yield decreased [18]

Report Information - Report Name: Huajin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - In the short - term, the live pig market is relatively stable with a slight increase in demand, and the pig price will mainly show a consolidation trend. As the May Day holiday starts on Thursday this week, short - term operations are recommended [3] Section Summaries 1. Live Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13,540, down 120 (-0.9%); LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 14,150, down 315 (-2.2%); LH2511 closed at 13,795, down 215 (-1.5%) [3][4] - Spot: The national average commodity pig出栏 price was 14.87 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (-0.2%); in Henan (the delivery benchmark area), it was 15.07 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg (-0.4%) [3][4] 2. Inter - month Spreads, Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Spreads: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 610, down 195; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 355, up 100 [9] - Basis: The basis for July was 1530, up 60; for September, it was 920, up 255 [9] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of live pig warehouse receipts was 665, an increase of 440 [3][9] 3. Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglets: The average price of weaned piglets was 523.81 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week. The market had stable rigid demand, and the price was supported [18] - Sows: The average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, unchanged from last week. The domestic inventory of reproductive sows was expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [18] - Commodity Pigs: The inventory of commodity pigs in April was expected to continue to increase month - on - month due to capacity recovery [18] 4. Standard - Fat Pig Price Spread - National Average: The weekly average national standard - fat pig price spread was 0.01 yuan/kg. Secondary fattening groups continued to enter the market, but the demand for fat pigs weakened as the weather warmed up [24] - Key Markets: In key markets, the standard - fat pig price spread increased in most regions, such as 0.21 in Liaoning and 0.24 in Hebei [23] 5. Slaughter End - Slaughter Rate: The national average slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 27.19%, up 0.35 percentage points. Due to secondary fattening diverting some standard pig resources, slaughter enterprises increased prices to ensure the slaughter volume [27] - Fresh Sales Rate: The fresh sales rate of key slaughter enterprises was 88.1%, down 0.05 percentage points [27] - Cold Storage Rate: The cold storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, up 0.04 percentage points. Some regions had low fresh product sales and were forced to store in cold storage [27] 6. White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Markets - White - Striped Pork Price: The price of the top three grades of white - striped pork fluctuated [29] - Gross - White Price Spread: The gross - white price spread was 4.12 yuan/kg, down [3] 7. Profit and Cost - Self - Breeding and Self - Raising: The weekly average profit was 145.34 yuan/head, down 0.95 yuan/head from last week [35] - Purchasing Piglets: The weekly average profit was 58.80 yuan/head, down 1.39 yuan/head from last week. The increase in feed raw material prices squeezed the profit margins [35] 8. Market Information Summary - Supply: Large - scale farms had normal slaughter volumes, high slaughter weights, and concentrated slaughter by small - scale farmers, resulting in sufficient market supply [38] - Demand: Secondary fattening continued to enter the market, and the May Day holiday备货 supported short - term demand [38] - Cold Storage: Slaughter enterprises had low cold storage capacity, and the cold storage rate was expected to increase later [38] - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. The increase in import tariffs on US goods was short - term positive for pig prices [38] - Epidemic: There were sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions, and the southwest was about to enter the traditional epidemic - prone season [38] - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was relatively neutral due to the fluctuating pig prices [38]

Report Overview - Report Title: Global Sugar Market Overview (2025/4/28) [1] - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute [2] 1. Market Focus International Market - Brazil: The new sugar - cane crushing season is about to start, and attention should be paid to weather conditions and the progress of the crush. As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 4016.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [4][7][14] - India: As of mid - April 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons or 18.42% compared to the same period last year. [4][30][35] - Thailand: As of March 23, 2025, the sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, an increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% compared to the same period last year. [4][41][43] Domestic Market - China: The sugar - cane crushing season is gradually ending, and inventories are relatively high. As of the end of March 2025, the national total sugar production was 10.75 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.17 million tons), the sugar sales volume was 6 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.26 million tons), and the sales progress was 55.8% (6.3% faster year - on - year). [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, future imported sugar and substitutes will be the biggest variables on the supply side of the summer market. It is recommended to approach white sugar from a short - term oscillatory perspective, and relevant enterprises should carry out hedging operations according to their production situations. [5] - Internationally, Brazil has entered a new crushing season, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather; India's production has decreased, while Thailand's has increased; the Sino - US tariff game has a relatively limited impact on sugar trade; there has been no further news guidance in the market in recent weeks. [8] 3. Fundamental Analysis CFTC Net Long Positions - Net long positions have increased but remain at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [7] Brazilian Sugar Production and Export - Production: As of the end of March 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 4016.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [7][14] - Export: In March 2025, 1.85 million tons were exported, and the cumulative export in the season reached 35.25 million tons; in the first three weeks of April, 759,200 tons of sugar and molasses were exported. [7] - Inventory: At the end of March 2025, Brazil's inventory was 2.61 million tons, at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. [7] Import Profit - Import profit is positive and at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. [8] 4. Global Sugar Supply and Demand USDA Data - Compared to last year, global sugar production has increased by 2.8 million tons to 186.6 million tons. Increases in production in China, India, and Thailand have offset the decline in Brazil's production; with the growth of the Indian market, consumption is expected to reach a new high; due to the increase in Thailand's exports, global available exports have increased. [12] ISO Report - It is estimated that the global sugar supply gap in the 24/25 season will widen from the 251,300 - ton estimate in November 2024 to 488,100 tons; due to factors such as a decrease in the total production of major southern hemisphere producing areas after October 2024, lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan, and a decline in Thailand's total sugar - cane production, the global sugar production in the 2024/25 season is expected to drop to 175.54 million tons; the global consumption in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 180.42 million tons; both import and export volumes will decline, with imports at 63.324 million tons and exports at 62.661 million tons. The 66,300 - ton trade gap is much smaller than the current production/consumption gap, indicating a significant reduction in inventory. [12] StoneX Forecast - It is estimated that the global sugar surplus in the 2023/24 season was 3.2 million tons, and the surplus in the 2024/25 season will be 2.14 million tons. StoneX has raised its production forecast for India, and the possibility of exports is higher, with an expected export volume of 1 million tons. [13] 5. Key Country Analyses Brazil - Production: IBGE expects Brazil's sugar - cane planting area in 2025 to be 9.260858 million hectares, a 0.4% increase from last month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year; the sugar - cane production is expected to be 708.443279 million tons, a 0.2% increase from last month's forecast and a 0.2% increase from last year. As of March 15, 2025, there were 204 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 154; the sugar - cane crushed was 254.517 million tons, a decrease of 29.631 million tons or 10.43% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 23.715 million tons, a decrease of 4.555 million tons or 16.11% compared to the same period last year. [29] - Export: In March 2025, 1.8533 million tons were exported, and the cumulative export in the season reached 35.23 million tons. [20] - Ethanol: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.3, showing minor fluctuations around a stable level. [25] India - Production: As of April 15, 2025, there were 37 sugar mills still in operation, a year - on - year decrease of 37; the sugar - cane crushed was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons or 11.51% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons or 18.42% compared to the same period last year. [35] - Export: Although the Indian government has allowed the export of 1 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, it is expected that the actual export volume may only be 600,000 - 700,000 tons by the end of the season in September. [39] Thailand - Production: As of March 23, 2025, the cumulative sugar - cane crushed was 91.6207 million tons, an increase of 9.9598 million tons or 12.2% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - cane sugar content was 12.61%, an increase of 0.27% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making rate was 10.888%, an increase of 0.227% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, an increase of 1.2698 million tons or 14.58% compared to the same period last year. The OSCB director expects Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season to reach 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. [43][46] United States - Supply and demand balance: The production estimate has been slightly adjusted downward, while the import volume and ending inventory estimates have been adjusted upward. [47] 6. Domestic Market Analysis Production and Sales - The sugar - cane crushing season is gradually ending, and the sales rate has increased, with industrial inventory showing a significant decline in March. [5] Import - In March 2025, 61,300 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative import volume for the year is at a low level. [52] Trade - Import profit has rebounded. [56] 7. Market Indicators International Sugar Market - The net long position of CFTC funds remains at a relatively low level. [62] Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - The basis and the spread between contract months have widened. [65]

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Stock Index Futures Market - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute - Date: April 28, 2025 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to mainly wait and see [4]. - Currently, the basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, stating that the economy shows a positive trend this year and emphasizing more active macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies [4]. - **Overseas News**: European central bank governors are more confident about a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in June due to stagnant business growth, slowing wage growth, and continuous decline in inflation in the eurozone [4]. - **Market Performance**: The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly with low trading volume last week. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 54.3 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 1.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume shrinking and medium - to - long - term valuations at a medium - low level [4]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Quotes and Basis - **Futures Performance**: IF2506 rose 0.82% to 3739.2, IH2506 fell 0.21% to 2628, IC2506 rose 1.83% to 5498.6, and IM2506 rose 2.56% to 5786.6 last week [6]. - **Price and Basis**: Stock index futures fluctuated after a rebound, with low market trading volume. The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [7]. - **Historical Returns**: Since 2024, large - cap stocks in the SSE 50 have risen 15.56%, and small - cap stocks in the CSI 1000 have risen 1.45% [7]. 3.3. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - **Macro Data**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line; the interest rate was 1.67%, below 3%; and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7% [10]. - **Profit Situation**: The year - on - year net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 rose year - on - year [10]. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was 1.67%, up 1 BP from last week [10]. 3.4. Stock Index Capital and Valuation Changes - **Fund Flows**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 1.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 54.3 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. For example, the rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11.64, and the percentile is 36% [11][13]. 3.5. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - to - long - term moving average, with declining trading volume and short - term fluctuations (neutral) [16]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The medium - to - long - term monetary policy is loose, with low interest rates, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish); A - share earnings in the first three quarters increased year - on - year (bullish); margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish); the current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - to - long - term (bullish) [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For iron ore, the overall molten iron production remains at a high level, steel mills' sinter powder inventory is low, and there is still overall rigid demand. There is a demand for restocking before the holiday, with a possibility of short - term pulsed increases, but it will be under pressure in the medium term [2]. - For coking coal and coke, the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles remains stable, the overall port inventory level is still high, the supply side has an obvious surplus, and neither the spot nor futures prices have the momentum for continuous rebound. Attention should be paid to the possibility of supply - side reduction [45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Iron Ore - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas shipments are generally at a normal level. Australian and Brazilian shipments are stable this week, non - mainstream shipments are at a low level, and domestic iron concentrate powder production remains stable. Australian and Brazilian shipments recovered by 2900 tons to 24.377 million tons this period, and non - Australian and Brazilian shipments recovered by 14900 tons to about 4.878 million tons. It is expected that the arrival volume will remain at an average level in the second quarter [2][6]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipments**: Fortescue's iron ore shipments in Q4 2024 reached 48.9 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.56%, and the shipment target for the 2025 fiscal year is 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's iron ore production in Q1 25 was 67.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%, and the annual production target remains unchanged at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in Q1 25 was 69.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%, and the annual shipment remains unchanged at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's Pilbara business iron ore production in FY25Q3 was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year iron ore target guidance remains unchanged at 282 - 294 million tons [17]. - **Demand**: This week, molten iron production continued to rise and is expected to remain at a high level, rising by 42300 tons to about 2.4435 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated and declined, the port clearance volume remained at a high level, and downstream restocked before the holiday [22]. - **Inventory**: Sinter powder inventory remains at a normal level, and the total port inventory increased slightly, expected to remain in a balanced state. The total port inventory increased by 2.05 million tons to 142.61 million tons this week. Steel mills' imported sinter powder inventory remained stable, increasing by 17400 tons to 12.6852 million tons this week [28][30]. - **Futures - Spot Structure**: The futures - spot prices fluctuated widely, with far - month prices at a large discount to the spot, indicating weakening expectations. It is expected that the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness will continue before May Day [34]. - **Relationship with Foreign Exchange**: Tariff factors lead to the market selling the US dollar. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, and the US dollar index will continue to decline under pressure [40]. - **Relationship with Non - mainstream Region Shipments**: No specific analysis content provided other than the data graph. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply**: Molten iron production is expected to remain at a high level and increased significantly this week. The first round of coke price increase of 50 yuan/ton was implemented, but there was no further progress in the second round, and coke profits are still under pressure [51]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory remained at a low level, decreasing by 71700 tons to 9.6896 million tons this week. Steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased slightly by 17500 tons to about 7.828 million tons this week, both at relatively low levels in the same period. Port imported coking coal inventory continued to decline, decreasing slightly by 125900 tons to 3.2479 million tons this week, and the overall level of mine clean coal inventory is high [54][60]. - **Coking Coal Term Structure**: There is an obvious supply surplus, coal prices are oscillating at the bottom, downstream willingness to take delivery is poor, and it is difficult to see a substantial turning point in the short term [64]. - **Coke Inventory**: The second round of coke price increase has no further news. Profits are still negative but have recovered. Independent coking production has continued to rise to around the average. Steel mills' rigid demand is strong, and the number of available days of coke inventory has continued to decline. This week, the total coke inventory did not change significantly, molten iron production increased significantly by 42300 tons to 2.4435 million tons, and the national average coking profit this week was about - 9 yuan/ton [67][72]. - **Coke Term Structure**: Coke futures and spot prices remained oscillating at a low level. There are market rumors that coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices for the second round. The basis has narrowed, but the futures are still in a premium structure [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial products showed mixed performance, with non - ferrous metals rebounding in a volatile manner and black metals under pressure. Steel prices oscillated at a low level. Steel mill production is expected to remain high, while demand is weak. Apparent demand is likely to reach a plateau and has little possibility of a continuous sharp rebound. Given the changing market environment, it is advisable to short螺纹 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Thread Supply - Mysteel's weekly production decreased by 0.11 tons to 229.11 tons, with electric furnace production down by 0.51 tons and blast furnace production up by 0.4 tons. The SAC旬 - level data shows that steel production is at a high level. Steel mill profits are considerable, and production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Thread Demand - Apparent demand has entered a stable period, with a slight decline this week. It is expected that demand will be difficult to continuously rebound in the first half of the year. After the holiday, it will gradually enter the off - season, and there is still room for demand to decline. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker decreased this week. Mysteel's daily transactions fluctuated with prices, showing overall weakness [15]. 3.3 Thread Steel Inventory - The total inventory of thread steel continued to decline slightly this week. Hot - rolled coil inventory also continued to fall. Thread steel mill inventory decreased by 6.67 tons to about 193.73 tons, and social inventory decreased by 24.16 tons to 508.60 tons. The total inventory decreased by 30.83 tons to 702.33 tons. The SAC旬 - level data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [21]. 3.4 Thread Cost and Profit - This week, the estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,930 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,910 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,919 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2,990 yuan/ton of common square billets on April 23, steel mills have an average profit of 71 yuan/ton [25]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian increased by 30 yuan to 3,190 yuan, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an steel billets increased by 30 yuan to 2,990 yuan. Futures fluctuated widely, while the spot price rebounded slightly, and the basis remained stable [29]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore fluctuated widely, and the ratio of the main contract of thread to iron ore continued to weaken. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and there are few positive factors on the demand side. Black metals are expected to remain under pressure [36]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to March, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.9% and 24.4% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - February, and the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 5.1 percentage points [40].