M N 2024 年 3 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 华润啤酒 (291 HK) 全年派息比例 59%，啤酒高端化趋势不变，白酒稳步发展 0 目标价 69.8港元 华润啤酒2023年下半年营收/净利，分别同比+6%/-7%，营收略低于市场预期而 (此前目标价 69.8港元) 利润超预期。2023年，公司成立30周年之际，给出特别分红将派息比例提升至 潜在升幅 83.7% 59%。同时，本轮业绩公布是金沙酒业并表后首个完整财年，管理层在业绩会 当前股价 38.0港元 上强调了未来对于啤、白双发展的全面发展壮大规划战略。对于啤酒业务，管 中国必选消费 理层表示，次高端及以上产品持续拉动公司整体营收及利润增长的同时，确认 了内地啤酒行业长期高端化增长逻辑。喜力和纯生的持续增长势头不变，2023 黄铭谦 年销量分别增长 60%+/10%+，预计两品牌 2024 年的销量将分别达到 75-80 万 (852) 3900 0838 吨和 100 万吨。对于白酒业务，金沙和摘要仍处于发展初期，尽管发展定位和 josephwong@cmbi.com.hk 战略不同，首要目标都是在短期维稳价格， ...

M N 19 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xtep (1368 HK) Stay prudent as channel health is the priority Target Price HK$6.31 Xtep’s FY23 results were dragged by weak e-commerce sales but inline with market consensus. Due to the macro uncertainty and high base, Xtep’s (Previous TP HK$7.07) management has put aside its 5-year growth target and introduced a rather Up/Downside 39.0% conservative target in FY24E. This is inline with our view that Xtep may not be Current ...

M N 19 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update GigaCloud (GCT US) Riding on stepping-up of expansion Target Price US$43.0 GigaCloud (GCT) 4Q23 results beat already-high expectation, with revenue (Previous TP US$30.0) /earnings +95%/185% YoY (beating 9%/43%). Coupled with robust 1Q24E Up/Downside 25.7% guidance, we see high visibility for its strong performance in next few quarters, Current Price US$34.2 backed by continuous share gain and SKU& Sellers expansion. Leveragi ...

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 Error! Reference source not found. Rerating rationale Total value = Embedded Value + Value of New Business * New Business Multiplier Long-term RoEV from 14% to 11%: Aside from the operating RoEV, we also include other metrics, i.e. investment experience variances, effect of changes in economic assum ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$464 million, slightly above estimates, while FY23 revenue declined by 4% YoY to US$1.76 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP operating income for 4Q23 decreased by 4% YoY to US$146 million, but was 7% ahead of consensus due to stringent control over product development expenses [2]. - The company plans to increase investment in content and user acquisition to drive top-line growth in 2024, with expected revenue flat YoY at US$1.77 billion [2]. - The target price has been lowered to US$18.80 from US$23.50, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24, total revenue is projected at US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at US$451 million, down 16-19% from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 25.5% in FY24E, reflecting increased investments [2][11]. - Advertising revenue in 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$404 million, with specific verticals like automobiles and online games showing strong performance [2]. User Engagement and Community Development - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) increased by 2% YoY to 598 million as of December 2023 [2]. - Weibo is focusing on enhancing user stickiness through investments in key content verticals and optimizing social products [2]. Shareholder Returns - Weibo announced a special cash dividend of US$0.82 per share, translating to an approximate 8% dividend yield, aimed at supporting valuation recovery [2].

M N 18 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tuhu Car (9690 HK) Solid FY23 with better profitability Target Price HK$35.3 Tuhu Car (Tuhu) achieved decent profit for the first time in FY23, with revenue (Previous TP HK$50.10) +18% YoY (in line) and adj. NP at RMB481mn (27% above consensus). Looking Up/Downside 195.2% into FY24E, we are positive on its resilient growth (forecasting revenue + 16% Current Price HK$11.96 YoY), backed by workshop expansion, richer offerings, ...

M N 18 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Shennan Circuit (002916 CH) FY23 results beat helped by better 4Q Q Shennan Circuit released its FY23 earnings, with revenue down 3.3% YoY to Target Price RMB79.00 RMB13.5bn (5%/2% higher than our forecast/consensus) and net profit down (Previous TP RMB72.00) 14.8% YoY to RMB1.4bn (11%/5% higher than our forecast/consensus). The Up/Downside -11.2% Company beat estimates thanks to a stronger-than-expected 4Q. The Current Pric ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mobvista Inc. with a target price of HK$6.00, indicating an upside potential of 85.8% from the current price of HK$3.23 [5][15]. Core Insights - Mobvista's FY23 results were largely in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 18% year-over-year (YoY) and an adjusted net profit of US$19.1 million, which is 9% above consensus estimates [2][3]. - The company is expected to enhance profitability significantly in FY24, with a forecasted bottom line of US$37 million and a net margin of 2.9%, alongside solid revenue growth of 20% YoY [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Mintegral revenue, which grew by 19.5% YoY in Q4 2023, and anticipates continued momentum in midcore and hardcore games [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Mobvista's revenue for FY23 reached US$1,054 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement to 20.6%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY, driven by higher advertising efficiency and cost discipline [3][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit, which rose by 97% YoY, reflecting strong operational performance [3][17]. - By segment, ad-tech and mar-tech revenues grew by 17.8% and 23.9% YoY, respectively, indicating robust growth across its business lines [3][17]. Future Outlook - For FY24, Mobvista is projected to achieve revenue of US$1,265 million, with continued growth expected in the lifestyle segment, which saw a remarkable 143% YoY increase in revenue [3][12]. - The intelligent bidding system upgrade is anticipated to facilitate category expansion, particularly in non-gaming sectors such as e-commerce [2][3]. - The adjusted net margin is expected to improve to 2.9% in FY24 and 3.0% in FY25, reflecting a positive long-term margin outlook [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying a 20x FY24E P/E for the ad-tech business and a 3x FY24E P/S for the mar-tech business, resulting in a target price of HK$6.00 [2][14]. - The projected earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for FY24-26 is estimated at 21%, indicating strong growth potential compared to industry peers [2][14].

2024 年 3 月 15 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 零售温和放缓，商品通胀反弹 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------------|-------------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|-------------|-----------| | 总计 | 占比 (%) \n100.0 | 2022 年月均 \n0.5 | 1Q23 月均 \n0.6 | 2Q23 月均 \n0.4 | 3Q23月均 \n0.7 | 零售和食品服务销售额(季调月环比,%） 4Q ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Walt Disney Company (DIS US) with a target price of $142, representing a 26.4% potential upside from the current price of $112.3 [1][2] Core Views - Disney is expected to benefit from the growth of streaming and sports sectors, driven by its extensive content ecosystem, iconic IPs, and diversified product portfolio [1] - The company's streaming losses narrowed better than expected in 1QFY24, and management expects streaming to achieve profitability by 4QFY24 [1] - Disney is projected to achieve a 5% revenue CAGR and 16% profit CAGR from FY24 to FY26, supported by advertising-tier membership penetration, shared subscription plans, Hulu synergies, and resilient theme park growth [1] - The sports business, particularly ESPN+, is seen as a long-term growth engine, with potential from strategic partnerships and standalone app launches [1] Business Segments Streaming (DTC) - Disney+ reached 150 million paid subscribers in 1QFY24, with a projected 4% CAGR in subscriber growth from FY24 to FY26 [1] - The streaming business is expected to achieve breakeven in 4QFY24 and deliver double-digit operating margins in the long term [1] - Key growth drivers include rich content library, advertising-tier memberships, shared subscriptions, and Hulu synergies [1] Theme Parks - Theme parks remain a cash cow for Disney, contributing approximately 2/3 of the group's operating profit in FY24 [1] - International parks are expected to maintain steady growth, while US parks are projected to accelerate revenue growth in 2H24 [1] - The segment is forecasted to deliver a 10% operating profit CAGR from FY24 to FY26 [1] Sports (ESPN+) - ESPN+ is positioned to capture growth in the digital sports market, leveraging rising streaming penetration and strong demand from sports enthusiasts [1] - Strategic partnerships and standalone app initiatives are expected to drive long-term growth in this segment [1] Financial Projections - FY24 revenue is projected at $91.8 billion, with a 3.3% YoY growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach $8.5 billion, a 23.9% YoY increase [5] - FY24 EPS is forecasted at $4.62, representing a 23.4% YoY growth [5] - Free cash flow is expected to reach $8 billion in FY24 [1] - The company's long-term operating margin for theme parks is projected to exceed 25% [1] Valuation - The SOTP-based target price of $142 implies a FY24 P/E of 30.7x, which is 14% lower than Netflix's valuation but slightly above the industry average [1][7] - Key valuation catalysts include streaming profitability, content-driven subscriber growth, resilient theme park performance, and sports business potential [1][6] Peer Comparison - Disney's FY24E P/E of 23.8x is lower than Netflix's 35.5x but higher than Comcast's 10.2x [11] - The company's FY24-26 EPS CAGR of 16% is higher than the industry average of 17% [11]