房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 2 月 28 日 00119.HK 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:港币 2.13 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.6 3.3 11.1 47.7 相对上证综指 8.9 3.2 7.7 31.5 房地产：房地产开发 证券分析师：夏亦丰 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 保利置业集团 销售排名进一步提升；公开市场融资渠道畅通； 估值提升空间大，重申推荐 | 主要股东 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源：公司公告， | Wind ， | 中银证券 | 以 2026 年 2 月 26 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《保利置业集团：营收同比增长，但业绩仍承压； 毛利率回升，偿债能力优化，"三道红线"指标全面 转绿》20250901 《保利置业集团：行业深度调整周期中经营韧性凸 显， ...

原评级：买入 市场价格:港币 2.13 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.6 3.3 11.1 47.7 相对上证综指 8.9 3.2 7.7 31.5 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 2 月 28 日 00119.HK 买入 | 主要股东 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源：公司公告， | Wind ， | 中银证券 | 以 2026 年 2 月 26 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《保利置业集团：营收同比增长，但业绩仍承压； 毛利率回升，偿债能力优化，"三道红线"指标全面 转绿》20250901 《保利置业集团：行业深度调整周期中经营韧性凸 显，债务结构明显优化，兼顾稳与进》20250520 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产：房地产开发 证券分析师：夏亦丰 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S130052 ...

Market Performance - On February 25, 2026, the equity market saw most sectors rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.72% and 1.21% respectively, while the CSI 300 and CSI 500 rose by 0.60% and 1.60% respectively [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were Huangting International, I Love My Home, Hualian Holdings, City Investment Holdings, and Zhujiang Shares, with increases of 10.05%, 10.03%, 9.96%, 9.96%, and 6.77% respectively [2] - The largest decliners included Hefei Urban Construction, Sanxiang Impression, Ningbo Fuda, Jinqiao B Share, and Haitai Development, with declines of -5.33%, -1.52%, -1.13%, -0.53%, and -0.45% respectively [2] Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai announced a reduction in housing purchase restrictions, effective February 26, 2026. Non-Shanghai residents can now purchase homes in the outer ring with a social security or tax payment history of just 1 year, and those with 3 years can buy an additional property [3] - The maximum housing provident fund loan for first-time homebuyers has been increased from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan. Additionally, families with multiple children can receive a 20% increase in the maximum loan amount for purchasing a second home [3] - From January 1, 2026, adult children of local residents purchasing their only home will be exempt from personal housing property tax [4] Company Announcements - China Overseas Macro Real Estate Group announced that the buyback registration period for "23 Hongyang 02" bonds is from March 2 to March 9, 2026, with the repayment date set for April 3, 2026 [6] - Poly Real Estate Group announced the early delisting of "23 Baozhi 01" bonds, with a total buyback amount of 1 billion yuan. The bonds will be canceled due to this buyback [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1] Core Insights - New home sales in January showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales turned positive year-on-year [1][21] - The central bank has released favorable policies, including lowering the re-lending rate and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties [1][4] New Home Sales - In January, the new home sales area in 40 cities decreased by 42.3% month-on-month and by 22.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][14] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline of 14.0%, while second-tier cities experienced an 18.1% decline, and third and fourth-tier cities had a 41.1% decline [15][20] Second-Hand Home Sales - The second-hand home sales area in 18 cities decreased by 2.0% month-on-month but increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate improving by 41.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [21][25] - All city tiers showed positive year-on-year growth in second-hand home sales, with first-tier cities growing by 15.0% year-on-year [21][30] Inventory and Absorption - As of the end of January, the new home inventory area in 12 cities was 112.91 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 6.3% year-on-year, with an overall absorption cycle of 18.1 months [28][29] - The absorption cycle for first-tier cities increased by 4.3 months year-on-year, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decrease of 8.2 months [28] Land Market - The land market in January saw a transaction area decrease of 76.5% month-on-month and a 20.2% year-on-year decline, with an average land premium rate of 2.87% [1][12] - The average land price per square meter decreased by 36.8% month-on-month and by 20.9% year-on-year [13] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a 49.5% year-on-year decline in land acquisition amounts, with a land acquisition intensity of 32% [1][12] - The financing scale for the real estate industry in January was 39.6 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year but up 7% month-on-month [1][14] Policy Developments - The central bank's policy changes include lowering the re-lending rate to 1.25% and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [1][4] - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has been submitted for approval, with a total expected fundraising of 31.47 billion yuan [1][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, with an absolute return of 4.3% and a relative return of 2.7% [1][12] - The report anticipates two potential turning points in 2026: a policy turning point around the end of Q1 and a fundamental turning point around Q4 [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Real Estate Group reported its unaudited sales data for January 2026, indicating a significant performance in contract sales and pricing trends [1] Group 1: January 2026 Sales Performance - In January 2026, Poly Real Estate achieved a contract sales amount of approximately RMB 3.7 billion [1] - The total contract sales area for January 2026 was about 151,000 square meters [1] - The average contract sales price in January 2026 was approximately RMB 24,774 per square meter [1] Group 2: Annual Sales Performance for 2025 - For the full year of 2025, Poly Real Estate accumulated a total contract sales amount of approximately RMB 50.2 billion [1] - The cumulative contract sales area for 2025 was around 1.624 million square meters [1] - The average contract sales price for the year 2025 was approximately RMB 30,917 per square meter [1]

Group 1: Company Developments - LuKe Technology has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with China Galaxy International as the exclusive sponsor. The company is a pioneer in AI home security solutions, focusing on smart locks and comprehensive safety solutions for homes and communities. In 2024, LuKe's shipment of vein recognition smart locks is expected to rank first globally, with a market share of 10.5%, while its overall smart lock shipments are projected to be fourth globally, with a market share of 2.6% [1] - Jiaxin International Resources has issued a positive profit forecast, expecting to turn a loss of 173 million HKD for the year ending December 31, 2024, into a profit of approximately 300 to 340 million HKD for the year ending December 31, 2025. This turnaround is attributed to the commencement of commercial production in April 2025, which will generate revenue [3] - Poly Property Group reported a 22.92% year-on-year decrease in contract sales amounting to approximately 3.7 billion HKD in January 2026, with a sales area of about 151,000 square meters and an average contract sales price of 24,774 HKD per square meter. The company faces pressure on sales during the market adjustment period [4] Group 2: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant increase in IPO fundraising, with January 2026's total IPO amount reaching 39.3 billion HKD, a 555% increase from 6 billion HKD in the same month last year. The total fundraising amount for January 2026 was 53.1 billion HKD, up 318% from 12.7 billion HKD year-on-year. This surge is attributed to capital inflow, favorable policies, and a wave of hard technology listings [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights a surge in property viewings and sales in the Poly Langyu project in Wuhan, driven by returning residents and favorable policies [6][8]. Group 1: Market Activity - The Poly Langyu project has seen an average of over 40 client groups daily, with weekends reaching over 70 groups, indicating strong demand [6]. - The project has achieved a total sales amount of 6 billion yuan, with an overall sales rate of 95% since its opening in September last year [6]. Group 2: Buyer Demographics - A significant portion of buyers are returning residents, with over half of the clients being those who have come back to Wuhan for work or family reasons [6][7]. - Young couples and families are the primary demographics visiting the sales office, reflecting a trend towards family-oriented housing [5][6]. Group 3: Project Features and Appeal - The project is noted for its high space efficiency, unique design features such as sunken courtyards and 270-degree bay windows, which have contributed to its popularity [6]. - Proximity to public transport, including the upcoming Metro Line 12 and the construction of the Erqi Road crossing, enhances the project's appeal [6]. Group 4: Policy Impact - Recent government policies, including increased loan limits for families and incentives for multi-child households, have stimulated demand for improved housing options [7][8]. - The local housing authority reported that the area ranked fourth in the city for new property registrations in January, indicating a robust market response [8].

保利置业集团(00119)公布，2026年1月，置业集团实现合同销售金额约人民币37亿元，同比减少22.92%; 合同销售面积约15.1万平方米，合同销售均价约人民币24,774元/平方米。 ...