Market Overview - On September 18, Hong Kong's three major indices experienced a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.35% to 26,544.85 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.99% to 6,271.22 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 1.46% to 9,456.52 points. The tech sector saw a decline, while the semiconductor and robotics industries performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 8.5% and SMIC up over 2.5% [1] Southbound Capital - On September 18, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 62.88 billion, with Meituan, Alibaba, and Pop Mart receiving net purchases of HKD 14.12 billion, HKD 12.1 billion, and HKD 12.07 billion, respectively. Year-to-date, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds has reached HKD 1,099.89 billion, significantly surpassing last year's total [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.27%, the S&P 500 up 0.48%, and the Nasdaq up 0.94%. Notable gains were seen in Caterpillar and NVIDIA, both rising over 3%. However, many Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.79% [3] Key Developments 1. NVIDIA announced a USD 5 billion investment in Intel, purchasing shares at USD 23.28 each, a 6.5% discount to Intel's previous closing price [4] 2. At Huawei's Connect 2025 event, the company unveiled its Ascend chip roadmap, planning three series of chips through 2028, including the Ascend 950 series [4] 3. Kuaishou's Keling AI launched a new digital human feature, allowing users to create 1080p/48FPS videos from images and text or audio [4] Short Selling Data - On September 18, a total of 641 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of HKD 37.879 billion. Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent had the highest short-selling amounts, at HKD 47.94 billion, HKD 25.6 billion, and HKD 23.06 billion, respectively [5] Institutional Insights - Zheshang Securities highlighted the rapid development of AI applications in Hong Kong's internet sector, suggesting that the sector is at a historical low in valuation. The firm recommends focusing on leading internet companies with AI advancements, such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent, as well as vertical application companies like Kuaishou and Meitu [6] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and leading tech companies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a resilient growth in its cloud subscription business, which significantly contributed to its overall performance despite a net loss in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 98 million yuan, which is a reduction in loss by 55.1% compared to the previous year [1]. - The operating cash flow was -18 million yuan, showing an improvement of approximately 89.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 65.63%, an increase of 2.39 percentage points from the same period last year, primarily due to the higher proportion of high-margin cloud subscription revenue [1]. Cloud Subscription Business - The cloud subscription business generated revenue of 1.684 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.1% [1]. - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for cloud subscriptions reached 3.73 billion yuan, marking an 18.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - Major products like Cangqiong and Xinghan saw significant growth, with a combined revenue of 845 million yuan, up 34.3% year-on-year, and 304 new clients signed [1]. - The company’s AI applications have also shown promising results, with AI contract amounts exceeding 150 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its sales and R&D expense ratios by 2.64 and 0.04 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous year [1]. - However, the management expense ratio increased by 2.29 percentage points due to personnel restructuring and increased severance payments [1]. AI Development and Applications - The company launched the upgraded Cangqiong Agent Platform 2.0, which includes various templates and tools for agile AI application deployment [2]. - New AI applications have been signed with key clients, significantly enhancing their operational efficiency [2]. - The AI+ financial and tax applications have improved bookkeeping efficiency for thousands of small and micro enterprises by approximately 80% [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ERP SaaS market, with cloud subscription business driving resilient growth [2]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.03, 0.10, and 0.17, with corresponding PE ratios of 528.8, 151.8, and 85.1 [2].

Group 1 - The competitive landscape of global AI models is primarily dominated by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Tesla, with Chinese companies DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen entering the top tier [1] - The GPQA test results show that the top 25 models are mainly from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a low representation from Chinese companies [1] - DeepSeek-V3/R1 is expected to be released in December 2024/January 2025, potentially disrupting the global AI landscape and representing China's open-source models aligning with SOTA [1] Group 2 - Major tech companies are heavily investing in large model training, which is boosting their internal computing power demand through both training and inference [2] - Cloud providers are offering large model APIs on their platforms, with the MaaS business model driving external computing power growth [2] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) as a percentage of revenue for major companies in Q2 2025 is projected to be 34.8% for Microsoft, 23.3% for Google, 35.8% for Meta, and 18.7% for Amazon [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include Meituan, which has potential for valuation recovery, Kingdee International with sustainable ARR growth from cloud business, Lenovo Group benefiting from AI PC product cycles, and Tencent Holdings as a long-term preferred choice [3]

Group 1 - The competitive landscape of global AI models is primarily dominated by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Tesla, with Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen entering the top tier [1] - The GPQA test results show that the top 25 models are mainly composed of those from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, indicating a low representation of Chinese companies [1] - DeepSeek-V3/R1 is expected to disrupt the global AI landscape upon its release in December 2024/January 2025, representing China's alignment with state-of-the-art (SOTA) open-source models [1] Group 2 - Major tech companies are heavily investing in large model training, which is boosting their self-use computing power demand [2] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for major companies in Q2 2025 is significant, with Microsoft at 34.8%, Google at 23.3%, Meta at 35.8%, and Amazon at 18.7% of their revenues [2] - Chinese internet giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent have seen substantial year-on-year increases in CapEx, with Alibaba's increasing by 162.7% and Tencent's by 319.1% [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include Meituan, which has potential for valuation recovery, Kingdee International with sustainable ARR growth from cloud business, Lenovo Group benefiting from AI PC product cycles, and Tencent Holdings as a long-term preferred choice [2]

Group 1 - The gap in AI model and capital expenditure between Chinese and American internet companies is narrowing, with major global models led by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Tesla, while Chinese companies like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen are emerging in the first tier [1] - The GPQA test results show that the top 25 models are primarily composed of OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, with a low representation from Chinese companies; DeepSeek-V3/R1 is expected to disrupt the global AI landscape upon its release in late 2024 or early 2025, representing China's open-source model aligning with SOTA [1] Group 2 - Major tech companies are heavily investing in large model training, boosting their own computing power demand through training and inference; cloud providers are also offering large model APIs on their platforms, leading to increased external computing power supply [2] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) density for Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon reached 34.8%, 23.3%, 35.8%, and 18.7% respectively in Q2 2025; Chinese internet giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent saw significant year-on-year increases in CapEx of 10.2%, 162.7%, and 319.1% to 2.3 billion, 31.8 billion, and 36.6 billion yuan respectively [2] - Chinese internet companies are accelerating their AI investments, although their CapEx as a percentage of revenue still lags behind that of overseas giants by about a year [2] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include Meituan, which has potential for valuation recovery; Kingdee International, benefiting from sustained growth in cloud business and subscription transformation; Lenovo Group, expected to enter a slow bull trend with AI PC product cycles; and Tencent Holdings, recommended as a long-term preference [2]

Industry Commentary - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from new materials opportunities as eight departments issued a "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Automotive Industry" [1] Company Commentary - Kingdee International (00268.HK) is experiencing resilient growth driven by its cloud subscription business, with accelerated commercialization of AI [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) reported that the increase in 1.6T volume will further enhance profitability, maintaining its position as a global leader in optical module delivery [1] Industry Commentary - The photovoltaic industry chain is witnessing price increases upstream, indicating potential market shifts [1]

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,876.34, up by 0.37% [4] - The New Materials sector outperformed, with a weekly increase of 2.50%, surpassing the growth of the ChiNext Index by 0.39% [6] Industry Commentary - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the "Automobile Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan" issued by eight departments, highlighting opportunities in upstream new materials [6] - The plan aims for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales projected to reach 15.5 million, growing by around 20% [6] Company Analysis: Kingdee International (00268.HK) - Kingdee International reported a revenue of 3.192 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 98 million yuan, improving by 55.1% [10] - The cloud subscription business generated 1.684 billion yuan, up 22.1% year-on-year, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.73 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.5% increase [10] - The company’s gross margin improved to 65.63%, a rise of 2.39 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the higher proportion of high-margin cloud subscription revenue [10] Company Analysis: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) - Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 14.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%, with a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, up 69.4% [14] - The company is expected to maintain its position as a global leader in optical modules, with a focus on increasing production capacity for 1.6T products [12][15] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve due to the rising proportion of high-end silicon optical products [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the new materials sector related to the automotive industry, particularly "Shidai New Materials" and "Jundida" [6] - For Kingdee International, the expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.03, 0.10, and 0.17, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 528.8, 151.8, and 85.1, respectively, recommending a "Buy-A" rating [13] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to achieve net profits of 93.5 billion yuan, 180.8 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy-A" rating [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation over the next 6-12 months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company's cloud subscription business continues to drive resilient growth, with a reported revenue of 3.192 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase. The net loss attributable to shareholders improved by 55.1% to 98 million yuan [3][5]. - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions reached 3.73 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year, showcasing strong demand in the market [5]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI commercialization, with the launch of the upgraded Cangqiong Agent platform 2.0, which has enhanced operational efficiency for clients [6][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cloud subscription business generated 1.684 billion yuan in revenue, a 22.1% increase year-on-year. The combined revenue from major products, Cangqiong and Xinghan, reached 845 million yuan, growing 34.3% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin improved to 65.63%, an increase of 2.39 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to the higher proportion of high-margin cloud subscription revenue [5]. - The company expects significant earnings growth in the coming years, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.03, 0.10, and 0.17 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12][14]. Market Position and Strategy - As a leading player in the domestic ERP SaaS market, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation among enterprises, particularly with the integration of AI into its offerings [7][12]. - The company has successfully signed contracts with major clients, including Geely Holding and Mengniu Group, indicating strong market penetration and customer trust [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in enhancing business efficiency, with significant improvements reported by clients using the company's AI solutions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America Securities highlights the robust progress in AI monetization among Chinese software companies, with increasing contract values related to AI and improvements in operational efficiency driven by AI deployment [1] Group 1: Software Companies - Companies like Kingdee International (00268) and Meitu (01357) are expected to show higher growth visibility due to their significant subscription revenue [1] - The development of AI is driving strong demand for data centers, with advancements in domestic AI chip research supporting increased orders [1] - The report favors companies with stable downstream demand and high recurring revenue, recommending Kingdee and Meitu as top picks with target prices of HKD 20.7 and HKD 13.5, respectively [1] Group 2: Data Centers and Public Cloud - In the data center and public cloud sectors, the report is optimistic about companies like GDS Holdings (09698, GDS.US), CenturyLink (VNET.US), and Kingsoft Cloud (03896, KC.US), all benefiting from strong AI demand [1] - All these companies are expected to exceed performance expectations, with a "buy" rating assigned to each [1] - The target price for Mingyuan Cloud (00909) has been raised from HKD 3.7 to HKD 4, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1]

在数据中心及公有云领域，该行更看好万国数据(09698,GDS.US)、世纪互联(VNET.US)及金山云 (03896,KC.US)，受到强劲AI需求推动，全部业绩均胜预期，评级均为"买入"。美银证券并将明源云 (00909)目标价从3.7港元升至4港元，维持"中性"评级。 该行预期，金蝶及美图等订阅收入占比较高的软件公司，将展现更高增长可见性;认为AI发展驱动数据 中心需求强劲增长，国产AI芯片研究进展正面，可支持订单增加;AI亦驱动公有云业务强劲增长。目前 较偏好具有稳健下游需求及高经常性收入占比的高能见度增长企业，软件股中首选股为金蝶及美图，均 予"买入"评级，目标价分别为20.7及13.5港元。 美银证券发布研报称，在日前举行的投资者活动中与金蝶国际(00268)、美图公司(01357)、金山办公 (688111.SH)、用友网络（600588）(600588.SH)等中国软件公司、数据中心及云计算企业管理层交流， 发现软件公司AI变现进展稳健，AI相关合同价值持续上升;同时AI代理及AI编码部署正推动软件公司营 运效率提升。 ...