Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Railway (00390) is rated as "Buy" with expectations of stable infrastructure investment in 2026, supported by local government debt reduction and central government projects [1][2] - The new signed orders show marginal improvement, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust order backlog that ensures long-term stable growth [1][3] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with mineral resource business revenue reaching 6.223 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8.04% year-on-year increase, enhancing profitability and cyclical resilience [1][4] Group 2 - The fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, but the outlook for 2026 suggests stabilization due to orderly local government debt reduction and the implementation of central government projects [2] - The company has a substantial order backlog of 75.4 billion, which is expected to support long-term growth, despite some pressure on traditional infrastructure due to industry impacts [3] - The company’s resource utilization business is primarily focused on mining operations, with leading reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum among domestic peers, contributing to its profitability [4] Group 3 - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns, with H-shares trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares [5] - The dividend distribution from 2021 to 2024 shows a consistent payout, with the H-share dividend yield at 5.1%, making it attractive for investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Railway Group (00390) with a "Buy" rating, indicating that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 due to local government debt management and central government projects support [1] Group 1: Industry Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed this year, with pressures in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate; however, investment is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to orderly local government debt management and the implementation of central government projects [1] - Certain sub-sectors are anticipated to gain higher investment elasticity aligned with national strategies [1] Group 2: New Orders and Growth - The company has seen marginal improvement in new signed contracts, with cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 amounting to 27.3 trillion, 30.3 trillion, 31.0 trillion, 27.2 trillion, and 15.8 trillion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% [2] - The backlog of contracts stands at 75.4 trillion, ensuring long-term stable growth for the company [2] Group 3: Resource Sector Performance - The resource utilization business, primarily focused on mining operations, has shown strong performance, with revenue from mineral resources for 2021-2024 and 2025Q1-3 recorded at 5.957 billion, 7.504 billion, 8.367 billion, 8.157 billion, and 6.223 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +50.97%, +25.98%, +11.49%, -2.52%, and +8.04% [3] - The gross margin for the resource utilization segment in 2025Q1-3 was 59.45%, supporting the company's operating profit [3] Group 4: Valuation and Dividend Appeal - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns; as of December 23, 2025, the A-share PE (TTM) and PB valuations were 5.4X and 0.42X, while H-share valuations were 3.6X and 0.30X, indicating a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [4] - Cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 and 2025H1 were 4.85 billion, 5.00 billion, 5.20 billion, 4.40 billion, and 2.02 billion, representing 17.5%, 15.8%, 15.5%, 15.8%, and 17.1% of the respective net profits; the dividend yield for H-shares is 5.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

（编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 12月22日，中国中铁在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前建筑企业受市场环境影 响，合同边界条件逐步发生变化，随着项目的推进，公司符合确认长期应收款项目及金额呈增长趋势。 ...

证券日报网讯12月22日，中国中铁（601390）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司所属单位正在参 与哈国克孜勒奥尔达州欧亚通道公路升级改造项目建设。 ...

Group 1 - The company, China Railway (601390), emphasizes its role as a key player in China's infrastructure construction and its commitment to leveraging its full industry chain advantages [1] - The company's strategic planning is closely aligned with national strategic planning initiatives [1]

证券日报网讯12月22日，中国中铁（601390）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年9月30 日，公司普通股股东总数486853户。 ...

格隆汇12月22日丨中国中铁(601390.SH)在互动平台表示，公司在福建海峡在建项目有厦金大桥、东山 跨海大桥等等。 ...

格隆汇12月22日丨中国中铁(601390.SH)在互动平台表示，公司暂未在乌克兰开展基建项目。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Beijing Bureau has completed the steel truss lifting operations for the Bohai New Area Station and Huanghua New Station of the Shijiazhuang-Hengshui-Cangzhou-Huanghua Intercity Railway, marking a significant milestone in the project [1][7]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Shijiazhuang-Hengshui-Cangzhou-Huanghua Intercity Railway is a high-speed railway in Hebei Province, connecting Shijiazhuang City to Bohai New Area, with a total length of 333.8 kilometers. The newly constructed section from Hengshui to Bohai New Area (Henghuang Section) is 223.8 kilometers long, designed for a speed of 250 kilometers per hour [3][9]. - Bohai New Area Station and Huanghua New Station are key stations along this segment of the railway [3][9]. Group 2: Structural Details - The steel truss structure of Bohai New Area Station measures 58.8 meters in length and 36.4 meters in width, with a truss area of 1822.8 square meters. Huanghua New Station's truss structure measures 111 meters in length and 25.2 meters in width, with a truss area of 2797.2 square meters. Both trusses are designed as regular four-cornered pyramidal trusses, with welded ball nodes and elastic spherical steel supports [5][12]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The Shijiazhuang-Hengshui-Cangzhou-Huanghua Intercity Railway is part of the "four vertical, four horizontal, and one ring" planning of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei intercity railway network, serving as a core project to create a regional "one-hour traffic circle." Once operational, it will enhance connectivity between regions, improve transportation efficiency for cities along the route, and promote economic and social development in the central and southern Hebei region, as well as support the coastal openness of Bohai New Area [7][14].