Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. The gross profit reached 3.92 billion yuan, with a growth of 16.3%, and the gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 48.3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 126% year-on-year, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to the acquisition of New Classics Media in 2018. The Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% [2][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from copyright operations and other businesses was 4.09 billion yuan, growing by 33.5% year-on-year. The copyright operation revenue increased by 34.2% to 3.99 billion yuan, driven by the increase in the number of hit short dramas, films, and animations, as well as the expansion of IP licensing to partners. Online business revenue was 4.03 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.1%. Revenue from proprietary platform products was 3.53 billion yuan, up 3.4%, while revenue from Tencent product channels decreased by 28.2% to 0.25 billion yuan due to content distribution optimization. Third-party platform revenue increased by 32% to 0.25 billion yuan, benefiting from partnerships with third-party distributors [7]. Strategic Breakthroughs - The company made significant breakthroughs in its IP "creation + visualization + commercialization" strategy. In terms of IP creation, approximately 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new novels were added, with a total word count exceeding 42 billion. The number of new books with 50,000 average subscriptions increased by about 50%, and the number of new authors earning over 500,000 yuan annually grew by over 70%. Monthly paying users reached 9.1 million, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. In IP visualization, several hit products were released in the film and animation sectors, and the company completed the acquisition of Tencent Animation, further enhancing its IP portfolio. The GMV of derivative products exceeded 500 million yuan, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese millet economy market is expanding rapidly, projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024 with a year-on-year growth rate of 41%, and expected to surpass 200 billion yuan in 2025. The low conversion rate of domestic IP compared to the US and Japan indicates significant growth potential in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for High Market Prosperity - Supply-side factors include an increase in specialized players such as copyright agents, trendy toy brands, contract manufacturers, millet stores, and second-hand trading platforms, which enhance authorization and sales channels [2]. - Demand-side factors involve the expansion of domestic subculture user base and a shift in consumer perception from entertainment products to emotional values like cultural belonging and social connection [2]. Group 2: IP Value and Monetization Paths - Shanghai Film holds 60 IPs authorized by Shanghai Film Group and Shanghai Animation Film Studio, focusing on revitalizing classic animation IPs through content renewal, commercial authorization, game collaboration, and cultural product development [3]. - Light Media emphasizes content development over derivatives, with the animated film "Ne Zha" grossing $2.1 billion globally, ranking fifth in box office history, and generating over 300 million yuan in merchandise sales within a month of release [3]. - Ao Fei Entertainment centers on developing trendy toys and AI toys based on anime IPs [4]. - Alibaba Pictures operates Alibaba Fish, the largest IP authorization agency in China, collaborating with top global IPs and providing comprehensive development and operation services [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on content IP development with companies like Shanghai Film (revitalizing classic animation IPs), Ao Fei Entertainment (developing trendy toys and AI toys), and Yuewen Group (leading in web literature IP with impressive derivative growth) [5]. - In IP authorization operations, Alibaba Pictures is noteworthy for its extensive IP authorization platform [5]. - For IP derivative product creation and sales, attention should be given to Pop Mart (new IP launches, overseas expansion, and product diversification), Huali Technology, Tom Cat, and Fengyu Zhu [5].

阅文集团现四年首亏，新丽传媒成"拖油瓶"，版权 运营过度依赖爆款 2020年，阅文集团将原来三年的业绩承诺期延长至五年并下调了业绩要求：新丽传媒2020-2024年 净利润最低为2亿元、3亿元、3亿元、3亿元、3亿元，最高为4亿元、5亿元、5亿元、5亿元、5亿元。在 阅文集团的"放水"下，新丽传媒业绩终于达到业绩要求。 但新丽传媒的盈利能力却逐年下滑。2022-2024年，其净利润分别为5.4亿元、4.9亿元、3.4亿元， 逐年大幅缩减。2020年，因新丽传媒业绩不佳，阅文集团对其计提了高达40.16亿元的商誉减值，并额 外计提3.9亿元商标权减值准备，导致阅文集团当年严重亏损。 尽管2024年推出了《庆余年2》《热辣滚烫》等爆款影视作品，阅文集团(00772.HK)依然亏损严 重。财报显示，阅文集团2024年营收同比增长虽达到15.8%，归母净利润却亏损2.09亿元，这是其近四 年来业绩首次由盈转亏。 证券之星注意到，虽然阅文集团2024年亏损主要由于新丽传媒商誉减值导致，但营收和净利润走势 背离背后，依然暴露出其当前正陷于付费阅读根基动摇、IP开发效率失衡、并购后遗症爆发等经营困 局。 高价收购新丽传媒遭 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 21% based on a target market capitalization of 34.7 billion HKD for 2025 [6][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%. However, it reported a net loss of 210 million CNY primarily due to goodwill impairment of 1.1 billion CNY from New Classics Media [1][6]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment, was 1.14 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 1% year-on-year [1][6]. - The online reading business stabilized with a revenue of 4.03 billion CNY in 2024, marking a 2% increase, while the paid reading segment grew by 3% [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion CNY - 2024: 8.121 billion CNY - 2025E: 8.164 billion CNY - 2026E: 8.591 billion CNY - 2027E: 9.056 billion CNY - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1.13 billion CNY - 2024: 1.14 billion CNY - 2025E: 1.28 billion CNY - 2026E: 1.42 billion CNY - 2027E: 1.56 billion CNY [3][7]. Business Developments - New Classics Media's goodwill risk has been released, with a reported net profit of 340 million CNY in 2024, the lowest in 19 years, due to poor box office performance affecting overall results [6]. - The company plans to focus on high-quality content, which may extend the development cycle of new projects and increase production costs, leading to a decline in profit expectations over the next few years [6]. - The derivative products and other copyright operations have shown positive progress, with a revenue increase of 36% in 2024, excluding New Classics Media [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 34.33 HKD [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 15.8% to 8.12 billion RMB for 2024, but incurred a net loss of 209 million RMB due to goodwill impairment and increased sales expenses [1][2]. - The core business continues to grow, with significant advancements in IP derivative products and ongoing AI integration enhancing IP operations [1][4]. - The company has a robust pipeline of IP reserves, with online business revenue growing steadily and IP operations showing a substantial increase of 33.5% in revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 8.12 billion RMB, a 15.8% increase from 2023, but reported a net loss of 209 million RMB compared to a profit of 805 million RMB in 2023 [1][12]. - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024 was 1.14 billion RMB, aligning with the upper limit of the prior forecast [1][12]. Online Business - Online business revenue reached 4.03 billion RMB in 2024, a 2.1% increase, driven by the launch of more member content [2][12]. - The company optimized its distribution channels, resulting in a 28.2% decrease in revenue from Tencent products, while third-party platform revenue grew by 32.0% [2][12]. IP Operations - IP operations generated 4.09 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, marking a 33.5% increase, with the new subsidiary contributing 1.64 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company has established partnerships with over 150 licensing partners across various sectors, enhancing its IP derivative product offerings [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted, with expected Non-IFRS net profits of 1.41 billion RMB and 1.57 billion RMB respectively [4][12]. - The target price has been revised to 34.33 HKD, reflecting adjustments in profit expectations and valuation metrics [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 16% year-on-year growth, but reported a net loss of 210 million yuan primarily due to goodwill impairment of 1.1 billion yuan [1][7] - Adjusted net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 1.14 billion yuan, showing a 1% increase year-on-year [1][7] - The online reading business stabilized with a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan in 2024, a 2% increase, marking a recovery from previous declines [7] - The company is focusing on high-quality content production, which may extend the development cycle of new projects and increase overall production costs, leading to a forecasted decline in profits in the coming years [7] - The derivative products and other copyright operations are progressing positively, with a 36% year-on-year revenue growth in self-owned copyright operations, excluding the impact of goodwill impairment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 8.12 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 1% in 2025 and 5% in 2026 and 2027 [3][8] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a 12% year-on-year growth, and 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, with an 11% growth [3][8] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.25 yuan in 2025 and 1.38 yuan in 2026 [3][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is forecasted to decrease from 23 in 2024 to 21 in 2025 and further to 19 in 2026 [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. However, it recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 210 million RMB, primarily due to goodwill impairment related to New Classics Media [1][4]. - Online business has stabilized, with proprietary reading products performing well. Online business revenue reached 4.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2]. - The company is focusing on IP derivatives across multiple fields, with copyright operations and other income growing by 33.5% to 4.09 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit of 3.92 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 48.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.14 billion RMB, a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards to 1.35 billion RMB and 1.53 billion RMB, respectively [4]. Online Business - Revenue from proprietary platform products increased by 3.4% to 3.53 billion RMB, while revenue from Tencent product channels decreased by 28.2% to 250 million RMB [2]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for proprietary platforms and Tencent's self-operated channels was 166.6 million, a decline of 19% year-on-year [2]. IP Derivatives and New Media - New Classics Media generated revenue of 1.64 billion RMB in 2024, with a profit of 340 million RMB, although some projects faced delays affecting profitability [3]. - The company launched over 100 short dramas in 2024, with individual works achieving significant revenue [3]. - The gross merchandise value (GMV) of derivatives exceeded 500 million RMB, with card products contributing over 200 million RMB [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 8.12 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, but reported a net loss of 210 million RMB due to goodwill impairment related to New Classics Media [1][4] - Online business shows signs of stabilization, with proprietary reading products performing well, while third-party platform revenue increased significantly [2][3] - The company is focusing on IP derivative products, with significant growth in copyright operations and other income, particularly in the film and short drama sectors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 81.2 billion RMB, a gross profit of 39.2 billion RMB, and a gross margin of 48.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 11.4 billion RMB, a 1.0% increase year-on-year [1][4] - The company revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 13.5 billion RMB and 15.3 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10.6% and 5.8% from previous estimates [4] Online Business Performance - Online business revenue reached 40.3 billion RMB, with proprietary platform product revenue increasing by 3.4% to 35.3 billion RMB [2] - The average monthly active users (MAU) for proprietary and Tencent self-operated channels decreased by 19% year-on-year to 166.6 million [2] IP Derivative Business - Copyright operations and other income grew by 33.5% to 40.9 billion RMB, with New Classics Media generating 1.64 billion RMB in revenue [3] - The company launched over 100 short dramas in 2024, achieving significant revenue milestones [3] - The gross merchandise value (GMV) for derivatives exceeded 500 million RMB, with a strong partnership network established [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 28.00, representing a potential upside of 2.6% from the current price of HKD 27.30 [1][4][19]. Core Insights - The online business is expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2024, with projected revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%, driven by a 9% growth in paid reading users [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.4 billion, with a stable outlook for core paid reading revenue and growth anticipated from derivative products and short dramas [2][7]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in visual adaptations and the expansion of short drama and derivative product offerings [2][7]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 8.1 billion, with online business revenue expected to reach RMB 4.1 billion, reflecting a 5% increase from previous estimates [3][13]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 1.3 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 16.5% [3][21]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 1.4 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17.5% [3][21]. Business Segments - The core IP operations are expected to generate RMB 2.7 billion in revenue for 2025, a 14% increase from the previous year [2][13]. - The new media segment, including short dramas, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with over 100 new works planned for release in 2024 [2][7]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its offline channel capabilities for IP derivative products, with a projected gross merchandise value (GMV) exceeding RMB 500 million in 2024 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the acceleration of IP commercialization and the release of IP content and derivatives are expected to continue driving growth for the company [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 8.121 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with online business revenue contributing 4.03 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and IP operations and other business revenue reaching 4.09 billion yuan (up 33.5%) [4][7]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting net profits of 1.349 billion yuan, 1.513 billion yuan, and 1.681 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.3, 1.5, and 1.7 yuan [4][7]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 7,012 (2023A), 8,121 (2024A), 9,135 (2025E), 10,135 (2026E), 10,906 (2027E) [7] - Net Profit (million yuan): 805 (2023A), -209 (2024A), 1,349 (2025E), 1,513 (2026E), 1,681 (2027E) [7] - Gross Margin (%): 48.1 (2023A), 48.3 (2024A), 52.0 (2025E), 53.0 (2026E), 54.0 (2027E) [7] - Net Margin (%): 11.5 (2023A), -2.6 (2024A), 14.8 (2025E), 14.9 (2026E), 15.4 (2027E) [7] - ROE (%): 4.2 (2023A), -1.1 (2024A), 6.8 (2025E), 7.1 (2026E), 7.3 (2027E) [7] - EPS (diluted, yuan): 0.8 (2023A), -0.2 (2024A), 1.3 (2025E), 1.5 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [7] - P/E (times): 32.0 (2023A), -123.0 (2024A), 19.1 (2025E), 17.0 (2026E), 15.3 (2027E) [7] - P/B (times): 1.4 (2023A), 1.4 (2024A), 1.3 (2025E), 1.2 (2026E), 1.1 (2027E) [7]. IP Content and Ecosystem Expansion - The company is expanding its online reading content ecosystem, with 330,000 new authors and 650,000 new works added in 2024, leading to a 50% year-on-year increase in new books with over 50,000 subscriptions [5]. - The user community is becoming more active, with a 60% year-on-year increase in users casting a thousand monthly votes, driving monthly paying users to 9.1 million, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company is also exploring AI integration in the content industry, launching the "Writer Assistant" tool in 2025 to provide intelligent support for authors [5]. IP Premium Content and New Growth Areas - The company successfully launched several hit contents in 2024, including "Hot and Spicy" and "The Story of Roses," further solidifying its industry-leading position [6]. - The IP derivative business saw a GMV exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024, with card game GMV surpassing 200 million yuan, marking a historical high [6]. - The company secured the general agency rights for FunCrazy's "Nezha 2" derivatives during the 2025 Spring Festival, which is expected to further boost the IP derivative business [6].