证券研究报告 | 2024年08月22日 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn S0980511040003 S0980513100003 证券分析师：张鲁 证券分析师：杨玉莹 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn yangyuying@guosen.com.cn S0980521120002 S0980524070006 收盘价 13.90 港元 总市值/流通市值 32318/32318 百万港元 52 周最高价/最低价 22.34/12.38 港元 近 3 个月日均成交额 145.84 百万港元 | --- | --- | |----------|----------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 市场走势 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------- ...

股价表现 2024 年 08 月 21 日 同程旅行（0780.HK） 业绩符合预期；核心 OTA 利润率下半年有望提升 同程旅行 2 季度业绩符合预期，收入增速快于 GMV 增速，整体变现率提升明 显。核心 OTA 收入同比增 23%，经营利润率 24.3%；度假业务贡献 8.6 亿收入增 量。展望下半年，我们预计核心 OTA 业务收入稳健增长，经营利润率或随营销 效率优化而提升，故维持全年净利润预测。考虑市场环境变化，下调估值倍数， 目标价调整至 18.8 港元，维持买入评级。 报告摘要 2 季度业绩符合预期：总收入 42.5 亿元，同比/环比增 48%/10%，符合我们及市 场预期，核心 OTA 业务收入同比增 23%（其中交通票务/住宿预订服务同比增 17%/13%），度假业务贡献收入增量 8.6 亿元，环比增 9%，收入占比环比持平在 17%。整体收入增速快于 GMV 增速（+4%），整体变现率提升至 6.8%，对比 2Q23/1Q24 为 4.8%/5.9%。营销/研发/行政费用占收入比同比降 3.3%/3.3%/ 0.8%， 受益于 ROI 导向营销策略及运营效率优化，带动经调整净利润同比增 1 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 补贴收紧关注利润，盈利能力有望改善 同程旅行(0780) [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.21 同程旅行 2024Q2 业绩点评 | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------| | | 于清泰(分析师) | | | 021-38022689 | | | yuqingtai@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880519100001 | 本报告导读： 业绩符合预期，收益管理补贴收紧支撑业绩逆势稳定增长，盈利能力有望环比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。考虑行业景气度，下调公司 24/25/26 年经调整 归母净利润至 26.17/30.93/36.17（-0.98/-1.98/-4.09）亿元人民币（下 同），给予 2025 年行业平均 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 4.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 434 million yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [3] - The core OTA segment showed steady growth, with transportation ticketing and accommodation booking revenues of 1.743 billion yuan and 1.191 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.6% and 12.8% [3] - The company signed a three-year strategic cooperation and marketing agreement with Tencent, aiming to enhance user acquisition through various channels, particularly in lower-tier cities [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024Q2, the adjusted EBITDA was 914 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while the adjusted net profit was 657 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 64.6%, down 10.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the lower margin from the newly added vacation business segment [3] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.98 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 10, and 8 times [4] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 13.12 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 30.5 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.65 and a total share capital of approximately 2.325 billion shares [5][6] User Engagement Metrics - As of the end of Q2 2024, the company had 228 million annual paying users and 1.856 billion annual service users, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 29.9%, respectively [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited 同程旅行控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：0780） 截至二零二四年六月三十日止三個月及六個月之業績公告 本公司董事會欣然公佈本集團截至二零二四年六月三十日止三個月及六個月未經 審核綜合業績，連同二零二三年同期比較數字。 截至二零二四年六月三十日止三個月 1 • 收入由二零二三年第二季度的人民幣2,866.3百萬元同比增加48.1%至二零二 四年同期的人民幣4,245.4百萬元。 • 經調整EBITDA由二零二三年第二季度的人民幣805.8百萬元增加13.4%至二 零二四年第二季度的人民幣913.5百萬元。經調整EBITDA利潤率由二零二三 年第二季度的28.1%下降至二零二四年同季度的21.5%。 • 經調整溢利淨額由二零二三年第二季度的人民幣592.4百萬元增加10.9%至二 零二四年同季度的人民幣656. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18, representing a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 13.98 [3][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's core business is expected to achieve steady growth, with a projected revenue increase of 48% year-on-year to RMB 4.25 billion in Q2, aligning with previous expectations. Accommodation revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, while transportation ticketing revenue is expected to rise by 16%. The vacation business revenue is projected to reach RMB 720 million [3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 is forecasted to grow by 4.1% year-on-year to RMB 620 million, with an adjusted net profit margin declining by 6.2 percentage points to 14.5% due to lower profit margins in vacation services and increased investment in overseas operations [3]. - The summer travel demand remains strong, with the Civil Aviation Administration predicting a total passenger transport volume of 133 million during the summer, a 10% increase compared to 2019. International travel demand is robust, and the supply chain for international hotels has largely recovered to 2019 levels [3]. - The report highlights that average prices for flights and hotels have decreased year-on-year, which is expected to stimulate travel demand and support sustainable growth in the industry [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company have been slightly adjusted, with 2024E revenue estimated at RMB 17.509 billion, reflecting a minor decrease of 0.37% from previous forecasts. The gross profit is projected at RMB 11.883 billion, with a gross margin of 67.9% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 2.507 billion, with a net profit margin of 14.3% [6]. Market Context - The report notes that the recent changes in industry average valuations have led to the adjustment of the target price to HKD 18, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15x for 2024E and 12x for 2025E [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 26.10, indicating a potential upside of 56.1% from the current price of HKD 16.72 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilient growth during the Dragon Boat Festival period, with hotel and transportation growth rates exceeding the market average. The management remains optimistic about the financial guidance for the entire year, expecting a positive performance in Q2 2024 and accelerated revenue growth in the second half of 2024 [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market has overreacted to concerns about profit margin dilution due to international business investments, which are expected to diminish in impact by the second half of 2024. The company's hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) remains stable, contrasting with broader market pressures [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its international business, aiming to increase its revenue contribution from 3%-4% to 10%-15% over the next 2-3 years, particularly in the Southeast Asian market [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 11,896 million in FY23A to RMB 17,607 million in FY24E, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.0% [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,199.1 million in FY23A to RMB 2,606.8 million in FY24E, reflecting an 18.5% growth [3][11]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.98 in FY23A to RMB 1.16 in FY24E, indicating a significant recovery from previous declines [3][11]. Market Position and Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, with domestic travel during the Dragon Boat Festival increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, and total spending rising by 8.1% [2][3]. - The hotel ADR is expected to remain stable, with a projected year-on-year hold in the first half of 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of budget hotels in the company's portfolio [2][3]. - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 8.2% over the past six months, while the overall market has seen a larger drop of 18.8% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust performance in its core business, with outbound travel operations beginning to gain momentum. In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and a net profit of 400 million RMB, up 5% year-on-year [1]. - The company benefits from the recovery of domestic travel demand, with its core OTA business generating revenue of 3.2 billion RMB, a 24% increase year-on-year. The traffic ticketing segment reached a record high with revenue of 1.7 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [1][4]. - User base expansion and value release are evident, with the company serving 1.8 billion users, a 57% increase year-on-year, and a monthly active user count of 42.6 million, up 3% year-on-year [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant recovery in financial metrics, with 2023 revenue reaching 11.9 billion RMB, an 81% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion RMB, compared to a loss of 200 million RMB the previous year [4][19]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 65%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the different business models between online platforms and offline travel agencies [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.6 billion RMB, 3.3 billion RMB, and 4.2 billion RMB, respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to an adjusted PE of 15X, 12X, and 10X [1][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on the lower-tier market, with 86.9% of its registered users residing in non-first-tier cities, and aims to attract younger consumers through creative marketing strategies [7][11]. - The partnership with Tencent provides a stable flow of users, with significant traffic sourced from WeChat, contributing to the company's user growth [11][12]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with outbound travel revenue showing strong growth, particularly in international ticketing and hotel bookings, which increased by 260% and 150% year-on-year, respectively [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 3.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [3]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its other business segments, with Q1 2024 revenue from these segments totaling 1.165 billion yuan, driven by advertising, membership services, and hotel management [3]. - The company is actively enhancing its cross-selling strategies and increasing investments in international ticketing, which has led to a significant rise in international ticket sales, up 260% year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue to grow from 11.896 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.115 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.30% [2][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.554 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.540 billion yuan by 2026, with a projected CAGR of 25.00% [2][4]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 0.68 yuan in 2023 to 1.56 yuan by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][4]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 17.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 40.05 billion HKD [5]. - The stock has seen a 52-week range between 13.12 HKD and 22.55 HKD, indicating volatility in market performance [5]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - As of Q1 2024, the company reported 229 million annual paying users, with a purchase frequency of 8.0 times per user, reflecting an increase in user engagement [3]. - The company is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets, with 87% of registered users residing outside first-tier cities, and over 70% of new paying users from these areas [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780.HK) [1] Core Insights - Q1 2024 performance met expectations with revenue of 3.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [3] - The company is experiencing robust growth in its other business segments, contributing significantly to revenue [3] - The core OTA segment showed stable performance with transportation and accommodation bookings generating revenues of 1.737 billion yuan and 965 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 25.6% and 15.6% [3] - The company is expanding its international travel market, with international ticket sales and overnight stays increasing by 260% and 150% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The acquisition of Tongcheng Travel Industry and Hainan Scenic Area Company has driven growth in other business revenues, totaling 1.165 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 6.585 billion yuan, with projections of 11.896 billion yuan for 2023 and 17.380 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 80.67% for 2023 and 46.10% for 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.172 billion yuan in 2024, up 39.74% from 2023 [2] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.95 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.79 [2][4] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2023 was 65.0%, reflecting a structural decline due to the lower margin of the newly added vacation business segment [3] User Engagement and Market Strategy - The number of annual paying users reached 229 million, with a 14.3% year-on-year increase, and total service users reached 1.827 billion, up 57.4% year-on-year [3] - The average purchase frequency per user has increased to 8.0 times, indicating a growing trend in user engagement [3] - The company is focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets, with 87% of registered users residing outside first-tier cities [3]