Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream), reported a value of 2572.51 points, with a 2.22% increase over the past month, a 25.04% increase over the past three months, and a 9.20% increase year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of theme securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, selected based on the China Securities industry classification [1] - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (28.81%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.85%), Zijin Mining Group (10.9%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.29%), Sinopec Limited (8.93%), China Hongqiao Group (4.48%), China Coal Energy Company (3.4%), Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.06%), Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.89%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.35%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the H300 Upstream Index shows that oil and gas account for 50.95%, precious metals for 16.02%, coal for 15.56%, industrial metals for 14.84%, oil and gas extraction and field services for 1.07%, rare metals for 0.89%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.67% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Chuanjiang has been focusing on energy integration, increasing reserves and production, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and green transformation during his first month as Chairman of CNOOC [1][2][4] Group 1: Key Activities and Focus Areas - Zhang has participated in multiple meetings and research activities, emphasizing the integration of oil and gas with various new energy projects [1][2] - On June 18, during a work survey at CNOOC, he highlighted the need for the integration of oil and gas with new energy and the development of marine energy [1] - On June 19, he stressed the importance of high-quality development in overseas operations and optimizing asset layout [2] - He visited Tianjin from June 25 to 26, focusing on enhancing energy security through key areas such as increasing reserves and production, cost reduction, and technological innovation [2] - On June 27, he called for increased forward-looking research to gain a competitive advantage in future industries [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Zhang aims to establish a "wind-solar-storage-hydrogen" green energy production base, leveraging offshore oil field electricity needs to develop surrounding offshore wind and solar projects [4] - He emphasized the importance of carbon capture and storage (CCUS) technologies and the integration of various energy projects to promote sustainable energy development [4] - On July 2, he acknowledged the achievements of the research institute in supporting CNOOC's high-quality development through technological advancements [4] - He has called for a focus on exploration and production, particularly in large and medium-sized oil and gas fields, to enhance reserve management capabilities [6] - Zhang has also highlighted the need for a world-class natural gas trading company, balancing profit and sales while expanding market presence [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the robust measures taken by state-owned enterprises to ensure energy supply stability during the peak summer demand period, highlighting the significant contributions of various energy sectors, including traditional and renewable sources [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Energy Supply Measures - National Energy Group's electricity generation in June reached 1,025.8 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase [2]. - The State Grid has completed 140 key projects for summer peak supply, with a total investment exceeding 30 billion yuan, enhancing power supply capacity by over 30 million kilowatts [1][2]. - Southern Power Grid's highest electricity load reached 240 million kilowatts, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, with projections of 270 million kilowatts during peak summer [2]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Contributions - Clean energy supply capabilities are continuously improving, with offshore gas fields and LNG import operations significantly contributing to natural gas supply [3]. - New energy sources, particularly wind and solar, are becoming the main contributors to electricity generation, with a notable increase in their share of total generation [4]. - The Three Gorges Group's hydropower stations are prepared for peak demand, with expected maximum output exceeding 70 million kilowatts this summer [3]. Group 3: Future Energy Strategy - The article suggests accelerating the establishment of a reliable renewable energy-based supply system to balance energy supply and emissions reduction [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates a year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts in the highest electricity load during the summer peak [4][5]. - Financial support is being mobilized, with energy companies issuing special bonds to bolster supply efforts [4].

Investment Ratings - PetroChina: Buy with a 12-month target price of HK$8.30/Rmb12.60, reflecting a potential upside of 21.5% [19][24] - CNOOC: Buy with a 12-month target price of HK$20.90, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% [26][29] - Sinopec: Neutral with a 12-month target price of HK$3.70/Rmb4.90, suggesting a downside of 11.7% [30][35] Core Insights - The report emphasizes a preference for free cash flow (FCF) leaders like PetroChina and CNOOC, both expected to achieve double-digit FCF yields in 2026E [2][19] - PetroChina and CNOOC are projected to achieve FCF breakeven at Brent oil prices of US$30-$40/bbl, with attractive FCF yields of approximately 11% for both companies under various oil price scenarios [21][17] - Sinopec is expected to face weak FCF due to prolonged chemical market surplus and elevated capital expenditures, leading to a Neutral rating [30][39] Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - PetroChina's estimated net income for 2Q is projected to decline by 30% year-on-year, while Sinopec's is expected to drop by 46% [1] - CNOOC's 1H net income is estimated to decrease by 16% year-on-year [1] Valuation Comparisons - PetroChina and CNOOC are trading at discounted valuations of 3.1X-3.2X on 2026 EV/DACF compared to a global average of 5.5X [2][14] - The report highlights that both companies could maintain attractive FCF yields even at lower oil prices, with PetroChina and CNOOC achieving yields of approximately 10% and 9% respectively at US$60/bbl [2][18] Price Sensitivity Analysis - For PetroChina, total EBITDA is projected to range from Rmb351.6 million at US$50/bbl to Rmb542.5 million at US$90/bbl [20] - CNOOC's EBITDA is expected to range from Rmb176.2 million at US$50/bbl to Rmb308.0 million at US$90/bbl [28] Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical events have supported oil prices, leading to low domestic oil product inventories and robust refining margins despite weak demand [1][2] - The report notes that deep utilization cuts among state-owned refiners have contributed to the current market conditions [2][8]

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation is poised for a significant opportunity depending on the arbitration ruling regarding its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation, which is crucial for accessing the Stabroek oilfield in Guyana [1][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The arbitration is being overseen by the International Chamber of Commerce, which is currently reviewing the decision before sharing it with the involved parties [2]. - Chevron's interest in acquiring Hess is primarily driven by Hess's 30% stake in the Stabroek block, a key offshore oilfield operated by Exxon and involving CNOOC [3]. - The Stabroek block is vital for Chevron's strategy to address declining reserves, as indicated by a reserve replacement ratio of -4% in 2024, highlighting the urgency of this acquisition [3][7]. Group 2: Dispute Context - Exxon and CNOOC assert that their joint venture agreements provide them a right of first refusal on Hess's stake, while Chevron and Hess argue that this clause does not apply to their merger [4]. - The outcome of the arbitration will determine if Chevron can proceed with the acquisition or if Exxon and CNOOC can block the deal and potentially acquire the stake themselves [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - A favorable ruling for Chevron would enhance its position in a promising oil region, while an unfavorable outcome could jeopardize one of the largest oil deals in recent history [5].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 100 Energy Index (H100 Energy) has shown mixed performance, with a recent decline of 1.51% over the past month, a slight increase of 0.52% over the last three months, and a year-to-date decrease of 2.39% [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H100 Energy Index closed at 2407.00 points [1]. - The index has experienced a decline of 1.51% in the last month [1]. - Year-to-date, the index has decreased by 2.39% [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The H100 Energy Index is entirely composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100.00% allocation [2]. - The sector breakdown of the index shows that fuel refining accounts for 48.19%, integrated oil and gas companies for 36.24%, and coal for 15.57% [2]. Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2]. - Adjustments occur in response to changes in the parent index, special events affecting sample companies, or if a sample company is delisted [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price experienced significant fluctuations in H1 2025 due to a combination of geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [1][11] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding the Iran nuclear issue, are expected to continue impacting oil prices [2][15] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, with a projected global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [3][17] - Oil demand growth expectations have been revised downward, with IEA predicting an increase of 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the US and China [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are focusing on high capital expenditure and strategic production increases to mitigate external uncertainties [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In H1 2025, oil prices showed a downward trend, with Brent and WTI prices at $66.63 and $64.97 per barrel respectively, down 11.0% and 9.6% from the beginning of the year [1][11] Geopolitical Risks - The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to persist, with slow progress in peace talks affecting market sentiment [2][12] - The Iran nuclear issue remains a significant geopolitical risk, with potential for escalation impacting oil prices [15] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with a total increase of 1.918 million barrels per day since April 2025 [3][17] - The US shale oil production is expected to slow down, providing some support against the global supply increase [19] Demand Expectations - The IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by approximately 300,000 barrels per day, citing weak demand from major economies [4][24] - The "Big Three" oil companies are adapting to these changes by increasing their production plans [4][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic recovery for chemical demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a closing price of 26.29 yuan on July 3, 2025, with a slight decline of 0.04% and a trading volume of 202,600 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 533 million yuan [1]. Trading Information Summary - On July 3, the fund flow for CNOOC showed a net inflow of 26.8 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 5.03% of the total transaction value. In contrast, retail funds experienced a net outflow of 6.84 million yuan, representing 1.28% of the total transaction value [2][4]. Company Announcement Summary - CNOOC announced a final cash dividend of 0.60506 yuan per share (tax included) for the 2024 A-share period. The record date for shareholders is July 10, 2025, and the dividend payment date is July 11, 2025. The total cash dividend distribution amounts to approximately 1.81 billion yuan (tax included) [2][4].

中国海洋石油有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 证券代码：600938 证券简称：中国海油 公告编号：2025-021 ? 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 中国海洋石油有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）本次末期股息分 配方案已经本公司2025 年 6 月 5 日的2024年度股东周年大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任 公司上海分公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本公司港股股东的分红派息事宜不适用本公告。 公司拟向全体股东派发末期股息每股 0.66 港元（含税）。股息以港元计值和宣 派，其中 A 股股息将以人民币支付，折算汇率以股东周年大会宣派股息之日前一 周的中国人民银行公布的港元对人民币中间价平均值 1 港元折合人民币 0.91675 元 计算，金额为每股人民币 0.60506 元（含税，保留小数点后五位）。 本次 A 股末期股息分配以实施权益分派股权登记日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of China's chemical new materials industry, highlighting the continuous expansion of production capacity, technological innovations, and the emergence of specialized chemical parks, while also addressing structural challenges and the need for high-quality development. Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2023, China's chemical new materials capacity reached approximately 49 million tons per year, with an output exceeding 36 million tons and a production value of over 1.37 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to 2022, although lithium battery materials saw a decline from 540 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan [5][20]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with total revenue of 15.95 trillion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and total profits of 873.4 billion yuan, down 20.7% [20][21]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the chemical new materials sector has seen significant technological advancements, with breakthroughs in key technologies such as photovoltaic-grade EVA, optical-grade PMMA, and high-strength carbon fibers [7][8]. - A number of critical products have broken foreign monopolies and achieved industrialization, including HDI, PC, PPS, and electronic-grade chemicals [8][10]. Group 3: Key Players and Market Dynamics - Major companies in the sector include Sinopec, PetroChina, and China National Chemical Corporation, focusing on high-end polyolefins, synthetic rubber, and carbon fibers [11]. - Private enterprises are also making strides in specialized fields such as EVA, fluorinated chemicals, and nylon, contributing to the development of China's new materials industry [11]. Group 4: Specialized Chemical Parks - Several specialized chemical parks have emerged, such as the Shanghai Chemical Park and Ningbo Petrochemical Economic Development Zone, which are becoming core drivers for the development of new materials [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Trends and Policy Guidance - Under the guidance of industrial policies, there is a high investment enthusiasm in the chemical new materials sector, focusing on high-end polyolefins, engineering plastics, and functional films [17][23]. - The industry is urged to prioritize the import of high-potential products to address supply shortages and enhance domestic production capabilities [23][24]. Group 6: Challenges and Future Directions - The industry faces structural contradictions, including insufficient high-end supply and bottlenecks in key raw materials and technologies [18][20]. - The focus is shifting towards high-quality development, with an emphasis on enhancing product quality and meeting the growing domestic demand for high-performance materials [21][22].