大摩指，内地通缩格局是传统电信业ARPU增长的主要阻力，对公司利润、现金流的强调，可能抑制新 业务收入的增长，这一情况在2025年已经得到验证，料2026年也呈现类似趋势。尽管2025年第一季度出 现了DeepSeek，但由于收入规模有限以及政府端采用速度较慢，该行认为中资电信商收入的上行空间 有限。该行预测行业服务收入在2026年将增长1.7%(略高于2025年的0.9%)，总净利润增长3%，主要由 效率提升推动。该行认为国企/政府的AI采用可能成为三大电信商(中国移动(00941)、中国电信(00728)和 中国联通(00762))的潜在上行催化剂。 该行指中资电讯股获重估的驱动因素有限：(1)中国收益率不太可能进一步下行; (2)增长显著放缓至低个 位数的利润增长，派息比率提升的空间也缩窄。该行预期中资电讯H股在2026年的目标股息率为6-7%， 并继续偏好排序：中国电信>联通>中国移动。 根据该行经济团队的预测，内地2026年将持续面临通缩，十年期国债收益率触底，人民币汇率走强。美 国在2026年上半年将进一步降息，该行将大中华电信营运商评级下调至"中性"。 该行指，中资电讯商多年的上升周期驱动因素— ...

Core Insights - The conference titled "Carbon-Silicon Symbiosis AI Together - 2026 China Mobile Inner Mongolia Company Partner Conference" was held in Hohhot, showcasing how Inner Mongolia leverages "AI + computing power" for industrial upgrades [1] - China Mobile Inner Mongolia Company (referred to as "Inner Mongolia Mobile") unveiled a new computing power strategy and ecosystem plan, highlighting its role as a key builder of regional digital infrastructure and its market influence as an industry leader [1] Infrastructure Upgrade: From "Energy Export" to "Computing Power Hub" - Inner Mongolia, rich in wind and solar resources, is transitioning from being an energy exporter to a computing power hub, focusing on efficiently converting "watts" into "bits" [4] - Inner Mongolia Mobile launched the "Integrated Computing Network: AIDC" strategy, marking a transformation of the region's network infrastructure from a "communication channel" to an "intelligent computing hub" [4] - This strategic layout aligns with the market demand for "East Data West Computing," providing a solid physical foundation for Inner Mongolia to undertake nationwide computing power scheduling [4] Technology Scene Implementation: AI Empowerment and Industry Innovation - The conference demonstrated how advanced technologies interact with Inner Mongolia's unique geographical and industrial contexts [5] - Inner Mongolia Mobile showcased its technological capabilities in vertical industries, exemplified by the successful deployment of a 5G-A network and AI edge computing at the Hulunbuir International Low-Altitude Equipment Cold Weather Testing Center [5] - The company provided a replicable "digital toolbox" for local enterprises, enabling them to achieve intelligent transformation at lower costs and faster speeds [5] Business Ecosystem Reconstruction: Three Alliances for Collaboration and Benefits - Inner Mongolia Mobile initiated three industry alliances: "Digital Inner Mongolia Alliance," "Intelligent Computing Engine for Future Services," and "Data Integration for Smart Enterprises," signaling its transition from a service provider to an open ecosystem builder [6] - The launch of the "Mobile Smart Enterprise" brand and a new rights and interests cooperation model allows Inner Mongolia Mobile to share its channel touchpoints, traffic resources, and technological capabilities with partners [8] - This initiative aims to address the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in digital transformation, fostering a green, intelligent, and diverse industrial ecosystem in Inner Mongolia [8]

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.015 billion, 908 million, and 821 million respectively [1] - The top three in net outflow of southbound funds were the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and China Mobile (00941), with net outflows of -2.244 billion, -1.247 billion, and -1.234 billion respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Aux Group (02580), Wanwu Cloud (02602), and 361 Degrees (01361) led the market with ratios of 66.20%, 65.92%, and 56.40% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.015 billion with a net inflow ratio of 9.72% and a closing price of 599.500, up 0.76% [2] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net inflow of 908 million with a net inflow ratio of 21.43% and a closing price of 217.600, down 0.91% [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 821 million with a net inflow ratio of 14.83% and a closing price of 35.220, down 2.81% [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) experienced the highest net outflow of -2.244 billion with a net outflow ratio of -13.05% and a closing price of 26.980, up 0.07% [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a net outflow of -1.247 billion with a net outflow ratio of -11.06% and a closing price of 93.660, down 0.30% [2] - China Mobile (00941) faced a net outflow of -1.234 billion with a net outflow ratio of -49.20% and a closing price of 78.800, down 0.88% [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Aux Group (02580) led with a net inflow ratio of 66.20% and a net inflow of 7.7393 million, closing at 13.600, down 1.09% [3] - Wanwu Cloud (02602) followed with a net inflow ratio of 65.92% and a net inflow of 22.1130 million, closing at 19.020, down 2.46% [3] - 361 Degrees (01361) had a net inflow ratio of 56.40% with a net inflow of 4.0791 million, closing at 5.680, down 1.05% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced increased volatility in Q4 2025, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing mixed performance, while sectors like AI computing and semiconductors thrived, contrasting with weaker performances in real estate and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.22% in Q4 2025, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.56% [1] - The technology growth sector, particularly AI computing and semiconductors, showed significant gains, while industries such as real estate and pharmaceuticals faced challenges [1] Group 2: Fund Manager Performance - Star fund managers like Fu Pengbo and Li Xiaoxing achieved over 60% returns in 2025, focusing on AI computing and semiconductors [2] - Balanced allocation funds, such as Zhu Shaoxing's, demonstrated stability with a 20% annual return, benefiting from diversified investments across various sectors [3][14] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fu Pengbo's fund increased its allocation to data center cooling and computing-related companies, with a top ten stock concentration of 70.38% [5] - Li Xiaoxing emphasized AI hardware innovation and semiconductor investments, with a focus on domestic advancements in the semiconductor industry [6] Group 4: Traditional Value Investments - Fund managers like Zhang Kun and Liu Yanhun maintained positions in traditional sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, despite facing net value pressures [8][12] - Liu Yanhun's fund experienced a 5.85% decline in Q4, reflecting the challenges faced by traditional value sectors [12] Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - Fund managers noted the impact of "anti-involution" policies on corporate fundamentals, suggesting a shift towards supply-side optimization [17] - Despite market rebounds, equity assets are still viewed as attractive, with a focus on high-quality listed companies as scarce income-generating assets [18]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital saw a significant increase in trading volume today, reaching approximately HKD 137.85 billion, but still experienced a net outflow of about HKD 34.27 billion, marking a continuous outflow trend over the past four trading days totaling approximately HKD 64.88 billion [2][3]. Trading Activity - Southbound trading accounted for 38.13% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index today, with a notable net outflow from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect of approximately HKD 47.72 billion and a net inflow from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect of about HKD 13.45 billion [2]. - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Tencent Holdings (HKD 1.21 billion), Pop Mart (HKD 734 million), Yangtze Optical Fibre (HKD 298 million), and CloudWalk Technology (HKD 74 million) [3]. - Conversely, stocks with substantial net outflows included Alibaba (HKD 945 million), Zijin Mining (HKD 854 million), China Mobile (HKD 748 million), and SMIC (HKD 379 million) [3]. Stock Performance - Tencent Holdings increased by 2.31%, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 80,000 shares over the past five days, but has seen a return of capital in the last three days [4]. - Pop Mart surged by 7.03%, with an increase of 19.44 million shares over the past five days, indicating a continued inflow trend [5]. - Yangtze Optical Fibre rose by 15.43%, despite a reduction of 6.78 million shares in the previous five days, suggesting a short-term outflow [5]. - CloudWalk Technology experienced a significant increase of 73.79%, with an addition of 440,000 shares over the past five days, indicating accelerated inflow [5]. - Alibaba saw a rise of 2.12%, with an increase of 27.08 million shares over the past five days, maintaining a short-term inflow trend [5]. - Zijin Mining increased by 3.13%, but has seen a reduction of 49.81 million shares over the past five days, indicating a short-term outflow [5]. - China Mobile rose by 3.06%, with a reduction of 21.9 million shares over the past five days, continuing the outflow trend [5]. - SMIC increased by 3.52%, with an addition of 44.02 million shares over the past five days, indicating a short-term inflow trend [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a net sell-off of 34.27 billion HKD from northbound trading, with significant movements in individual stocks, indicating investor sentiment and market dynamics. Group 1: Northbound Trading Summary - Northbound trading saw a net sell of 34.27 billion HKD, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing a net sell of 47.72 billion HKD and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net buy of 13.45 billion HKD [1] - The most bought stocks included Tencent (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) [1] - The most sold stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Alibaba-W (09988), and Zijin Mining (02899) [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a buy amount of 20.87 billion HKD and a sell amount of 29.31 billion HKD, resulting in a net outflow of 8.44 billion HKD [2] - Tencent (00700) recorded a net buy of 12.09 billion HKD, supported by the announcement of a cash red envelope event worth up to 1 billion HKD [4] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net buy of 7.33 billion HKD, with plans for expansion into North American shopping centers [5] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) had a net buy of 2.97 billion HKD, benefiting from a long-term supply agreement with Meta for fiber optic cables [5] - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) faced a net sell of 23.16 billion HKD, influenced by market sentiment regarding the US dollar [7] - Other notable net sells included China Mobile (00941) with 7.48 billion HKD, Zijin Mining (02899) with 8.54 billion HKD, and Alibaba-W (09988) with 9.44 billion HKD [8]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend with all three major indices closing higher: Hang Seng Index up 2.58% at 27,826.91 points, Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.53% at 5,900.16 points, and the National Enterprises Index up 2.89% at 9,512.24 points [2] - Leading sectors included optical communications, oil, gold, telecommunications, and real estate, while tea and aviation stocks faced downward pressure [3] Optical Communications - Demand for AI infrastructure has spurred the optical communications industry, with Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) leading the sector, closing up 15.43% at 75.20 HKD [4][5] - Corning, a major player in the fiber optics market, saw a single-day increase of over 15%, reaching a historical high, following a long-term agreement with Meta for the procurement of $6 billion worth of fiber optic cables by 2030 [4] Energy Sector - Geopolitical risks have heightened energy security expectations, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both reaching historical highs, closing up 4.85% and 4.99% respectively [5][6] - The U.S. military's recent military exercises in the Middle East have raised concerns about energy supply stability, contributing to the rise in oil stocks [6] Gold Market - The weakening U.S. dollar has stimulated international gold prices, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rising 10.65% [7] - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2023, pushing gold prices above $5,200 per ounce [7] Telecommunications - The telecommunications sector is entering a new phase of "deep integration," with China Telecom (00728.HK) rising 6.27% [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the three major operators have added 108,000 data center racks, indicating a shift in focus from "broad coverage" to "deep integration" [9] Real Estate - Regulatory optimizations have boosted confidence in the real estate sector, with China Jinmao (00817.HK) rising 11.92% [11] - Feedback from multiple real estate companies indicates that the regulatory body has lifted the monthly reporting requirements for most firms, enhancing market expectations for liquidity and operational environment improvements [11] Individual Stock Movements - Wuneng Zhixing (00800.HK) rose 2.11% as it prepares to launch autonomous buses in Abu Dhabi [17][18] - Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) increased by 4.44%, with its AI product, Keling, surpassing 12 million monthly active users and achieving a 350% growth in paid users [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in December 2025, rising by 12.82% compared to +2.06% for the Shanghai Composite Index and +2.28% for the CSI 300 Index [8][14]. - Key material supply for optical modules remains tight, with major players like Longfei and Hengtong winning bids for China Unicom's hollow-core fiber cable procurement [8][9]. - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [8][41]. - The global smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market [8][29]. - The export value of optical modules from China decreased by 15.6% year-on-year in 2025, while Thailand's communication equipment exports surged by 152.1% [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 12.82% in December 2025, outperforming major indices [14]. - Sub-sectors such as cables and network equipment saw significant gains, with increases of 22.05% and 19.44% respectively [15][19]. Industry Tracking - The capital expenditure of major cloud providers in North America reached $112.43 billion in Q3 2025, a 76.9% increase year-on-year [25][28]. - AI applications are driving cloud business growth, with major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta significantly increasing their capital expenditures [25][29]. - The Chinese ICT market is expected to grow to approximately $889.43 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.0% [39][40]. Domestic Telecom Industry - Telecom business revenue in China reached 1.6096 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [48]. - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.193 billion by November 2025, accounting for 65.3% of total mobile phone users [49]. - The number of fixed broadband users with gigabit access reached 239 million, representing 34.3% of total users [52].

Core Viewpoint - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is actively promoting the "AI+" initiative among central enterprises, achieving significant progress in key areas such as application, computing power, data, and models [1][2] Group 1: Achievements in AI+ Initiative - Central enterprises have created over 1,000 application scenarios focusing on key industries like energy, manufacturing, and communications [1] - Examples include the State Grid and Southern Power Grid utilizing AI for intelligent management in power dispatch and fault prediction [1] - Central enterprises are integrating into the national computing power layout, with three major telecom operators establishing four "ten thousand card clusters" to support large model training [1] Group 2: Support for AI Development - General models like "Jiutian" from China Mobile and "Xingchen" from China Telecom have empowered over 200 external units, accelerating applications in energy and industrial manufacturing [1] - The "Huanxin Community" initiated by SASAC provides over 2,000 domestic intelligent computing chips for free, gathering over 4,000 models and 800 datasets to promote the widespread application of AI technology [1] Group 3: Future Directions - Central enterprises will intensify efforts in the "AI+" initiative, focusing on enhancing investment traction, deepening scenario cultivation, and optimizing data supply [2] - The goal is to become a key provider of intelligent computing infrastructure, a significant enabler of AI across various industries, and an organizer of systematic industrial layout [2]

摩根士丹利发表研报指，中资电讯商多年的上升周期驱动因素——包括监管放松、竞争减弱、云业务份 额提升及股东回报的基本面素已经过去。宏观环境与通缩持续压力影响移动业务，而人工智能尚不足以 推动业务收入增长。该行将中资电讯股H股评级下调至"与大市同步"，偏好固网多于移动，并偏好H股 多于A股，因为人民币走强以及A股溢价可能收窄。该行预期中资电讯H股在2026年的目标股息率为6- 7%，并继续偏好排序：中国电信>联通>中国移动。 ...