Core Viewpoint - SMIC's production lines are operating at a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage situation [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The smartphone market is currently facing a severe shortage of memory components, leading to significant price increases [1] - Customers are cautious about future supply uncertainties, resulting in a tendency to stockpile memory components to ensure complete assembly of devices [1] - The impact of memory supply issues is twofold: it boosts current orders but creates uncertainty for the upcoming quarter [1] Group 2: Product and Supply Dynamics - SMIC has taken on a large number of urgent orders for products such as NOR/NAND Flash and MCUs, leading to a temporary decrease in the proportion of mobile business [1] - The supply of NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and MCUs has long validation cycles and high barriers to entry, making it difficult for new entrants to quickly replace existing suppliers [2] - Even with new competitors, it takes at least 16 months from initial testing to mass production, ensuring the stability of current suppliers' market positions [2] Group 3: Pricing and Supply Outlook - The industry is currently experiencing a supply gap, and a 5% fluctuation in memory supply could significantly impact prices [1] - High pricing trends are expected to persist due to ongoing supply constraints in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC (688981.SH) is experiencing high demand with a capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in its production lines [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The company has a full production line, with significant orders leading to a high capacity utilization rate [1] - The guidance for Q4 does not show a significant increase due to a severe shortage of memory in the mobile market, causing concerns among customers about the assembly of complete devices [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Customers are currently inclined to stockpile memory to ensure complete device assembly, but there is a general caution regarding supply uncertainties for Q1 of the following year [1] - The company has taken on a large number of urgent orders for analog, memory including NOR/NAND Flash, and MCU, leading to a temporary decrease in the proportion of mobile business as some non-urgent orders are postponed [1] Group 3: Pricing and Supply Outlook - The impact of memory supply is twofold: it boosts current orders but creates uncertainty for the following year [1] - A supply shortage or surplus of just 5% in the memory market could significantly affect prices, with the current industry facing a supply gap and high price levels expected to persist [1] Group 4: Market Stability - Products like NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and MCU have long validation cycles and high barriers to entry, making it difficult for new entrants to quickly replace existing suppliers [2] - Even with new manufacturers attempting to enter the market, it takes at least 16 months from initial testing to mass production, ensuring the stability of current suppliers' market positions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, exceeding guidance [4][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was $192 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 28.9% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 44.7% [4][7]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 22%, which is above the guidance range of 18%-20% [4][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached $6.838 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17.4%, with a gross margin of 21.6%, up 5.3 percentage points year-over-year [4][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue for 2025 to be $6.6755 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 15.5% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $512.3 million in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 38.5% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be $0.64 for 2025, with a gross margin of 21.9% [6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 3.4% in 2025 [6]. Operational Performance - The overall utilization rate for Q3 was 95.8%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3.3 percentage points [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) for wafers increased by 3.1% quarter-over-quarter to $953 per wafer [7]. - The company’s 12-inch wafer production capacity increased, contributing significantly to revenue [7]. - The revenue contribution from the industrial and automotive sectors rose, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 21% [7]. Capital Expenditure and Guidance - The company’s capital expenditure for Q3 was $2.394 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase [7]. - For Q4, the company expects revenue to remain stable with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0% to 2% and a gross margin between 18% and 20% [7].

Core Insights - On November 17, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), and SMIC (00981) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 6.484 billion, 3.356 billion, and 2.080 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Tencent Holdings (00700) led the trading volume, with amounts of 3.686 billion, 1.774 billion, and 1.599 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai-Hong Kong) - Top active companies by trading amount: - Alibaba-W (09988): 6.484 billion, net buy of 868 million - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): 3.356 billion, net buy of 3.180 billion - SMIC (00981): 2.080 billion, net sell of 29.1529 million - Tencent Holdings (00700): 1.735 billion, net sell of 1.8 billion - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): 1.577 billion, net buy of 435 million - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): 1.571 billion, net buy of 85.3433 million - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): 1.209 billion, net sell of 88.1303 million - Horizon Robotics-W (09660): 842 million, net buy of 60.0033 million - Pop Mart (09992): 824 million, net buy of 219 million - Jingtaik Holdings (02228): 806 million, net buy of 60.6432 million [2] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen-Hong Kong) - Top active companies by trading amount: - Alibaba-W (09988): 3.686 billion, net buy of 1.202 billion - SMIC (00981): 1.774 billion, net sell of 44.1418 million - Tencent Holdings (00700): 1.599 billion, net buy of 258 million - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): 1.372 billion, net sell of 15.5 million - Huahong Semiconductor (01347): 1.054 billion, net sell of 74.6878 million - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): 708 million, net buy of 4.5961 million - Meituan-W (03690): 612 million, net buy of 248 million - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): 547 million, net buy of 546 million - XPeng Motors-W (09868): 532 million, net sell of 52.5404 million - China Mobile (00941): 491 million, net sell of 18.3796 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The AI industry is currently occupying a significant amount of capacity, leading mainstream suppliers to gradually exit fragmented and niche markets, creating important opportunities for many small to medium-sized suppliers, many of whom are clients of the company [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The company continues to invest in the AI sector and has taken on related orders, including those in the memory market [1] - A slight imbalance in supply and demand in the memory market can lead to dramatic price fluctuations, with a 5% shortage or surplus potentially causing prices to double [1] - There is currently a supply gap in the industry, and high price levels are expected to persist [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics - Products such as NOR Flash, NAND Flash, and MCU have long validation cycles and high barriers to entry for replacements [1] - Even if new manufacturers attempt to enter the market, it will take at least 16 months from wafer fabrication to mass production, indicating that the market positions of existing suppliers will remain stable for the foreseeable future [1]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's production lines are operating at a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The company's production lines are currently very full, reflecting a high level of orders [1] - The Q4 guidance does not show significant growth due to concerns in the mobile market regarding memory shortages and rising prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Customers are cautious about placing orders in Q4, fearing excess inventory, which has led to a shift in orders to competitors [1] - Overall market sentiment is cautious, impacting the company's growth projections for Q4 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][21]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 171.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.95%, exceeding previous guidance [5][6]. - The gross margin improved to 25.49%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.57 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.79 percentage points, also surpassing prior expectations [5][6]. - The company anticipates stable to slight growth in Q4 2025 revenue, with a gross margin forecasted between 18% and 20% [5]. - High capacity utilization and an improved product mix contributed to the revenue and gross margin growth, with capacity utilization reaching 95.8% [5][6]. - The demand for consumer electronics is strengthening, driven by a robust supply chain for home appliances and domestic manufacturers gaining overseas market share [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 57,796 million yuan in 2024 to 95,618 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,699 million yuan in 2024 to 7,700 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery trajectory [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.46 yuan in 2024 to 0.96 yuan in 2027 [6]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2026 is estimated at 8 times, leading to a target price of 159.3 yuan per share [5][6].

Core Insights - Southbound funds in Hong Kong experienced a trading volume of approximately HKD 91.376 billion, a decrease of about HKD 5.3 billion compared to the previous day, representing 42% of the total turnover of the Hang Seng Index, marking a short-term low [2] - The Hong Kong stock market continued its adjustment, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to approximately HKD 8.448 billion, with net inflows from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect being approximately HKD 4.335 billion and HKD 4.113 billion, respectively [2] - Notably, the Yingfu Fund (02800.HK) saw a significant net buy of HKD 3.726 billion [2] Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) had a net buy of HKD 2.071 billion, with short-term funds primarily flowing out, having reduced holdings by 4.096 million shares over the past five days [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) saw a decline of 0.94%, but short-term funds continued to flow in, increasing holdings by 9.056 million shares over the past five days [2] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) increased by 0.46%, with further inflow of short-term funds, adding 739,000 shares over the past five days [2] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 8.96%, with unclear short-term fund trends, having added 100,000 shares over the past five days [2] - SMIC (00981.HK) fell by 0.75%, with continued outflow of short-term funds, reducing holdings by 1.311 million shares over the past five days [2] Trading Activity Summary - The top active stocks in the southbound trading included Alibaba-W with a net inflow of HKD 12.02 billion from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD 8.68 billion from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - The Yingfu Fund had a net inflow of HKD 31.80 billion, while Ganfeng Lithium experienced a net outflow of HKD 0.88 billion [4] - Over the past month, the total net inflow for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 59.858 billion and for the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 56.811 billion, totaling HKD 116.669 billion [3]

Group 1 - The focus for brand manufacturers is on how to procure DRAM and NAND for next year, with a clear expectation of price increases in storage components [1] - The issue has shifted from whether prices will rise to how much they will rise and who will absorb the costs [1] Group 2 - Customers of companies like SMIC are hesitant to place orders for the first quarter of next year due to uncertainty about the availability of sufficient storage products for devices like smartphones and cars [3] - Manufacturers of storage-intensive products, such as automobiles and smartphones, will face both price pressures and supply uncertainties next year, leading to a lack of clear supply commitments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that SMIC's Q4 guidance aligns with market expectations, despite being a traditional off-season, with strong demand anticipated. The capital expenditure forecast for 2025 is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, leading to a 5% to 22% upward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, reflecting improved gross margin expectations. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 58.8 to HKD 93.3, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]. Group 1 - SMIC's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue increasing by 7.8% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.38 billion, surpassing the guidance of 5% to 7% growth [1]. - The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 22%, also exceeding the guidance of 18% to 20%, driven by a capacity utilization rate increase to 95.8%, reduced production volatility, and product mix adjustments [1]. - Net profit for the last quarter grew by 29% year-on-year to USD 192 million, which was 6% above market expectations [1].