全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,347 | 0.03 | 2.80 | | 恒生国企 | 9,148 | -0.22 | 2.63 | | 恒生科技 | 5,742 | 0.09 | 4.09 | | 上证综指 | 4,023 | 1.38 | 1.38 | | 深证综指 | 2,582 | 2.00 | 2.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,295 | 2.85 | 2.85 | | 美国道琼斯 | 48,977 | 1.23 | 1.90 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,902 | 0.64 | 0.83 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,396 | 0.69 | 0.66 | | 德国 DAX | 24,869 | 1.34 | 1.54 | | 法国 CAC | 8,212 | 0.20 | 0.76 | | 英国富时 100 | 10,005 | 0.5 ...

来源：互金咖 主动权益基金迎来业绩丰收年。 回顾2025，公募行业整体交出了一份亮眼的答卷。Wind数据显示，若不统计去年成立党的次新基金，全市场11292只基金（只统计主代码，剔除 联接基金，下同）中10717只产品均获得正收益，占比94.91%；仅有575只产品在年内出现亏损。 若只看成立超过1年的主动权益基金（包括偏股混合型、灵活配置型、普通股票型、平衡混合型，下同），则4369只产品中4222只产品均实现正收 益，占比96.64%；仅有147只产品亏损。与此同时，3419只产品在去年跑赢其基准收益，占比78.26%；剩余950只产品则在去年跑输基准。 据新经济e线了解，从业绩归因和收益特征来看，2025年主动权益基金的亮眼业绩与A股结构性行情深度绑定，业绩突出的基金多集中在科技细分 领域，如光模块、PCB、云计算、存储等，还有部分基金重仓创新药板块。 尽管主动权益基金在去年扬眉吐气，但也有观点指出，表现较好的产品持仓明显呈现高集中度，在公募基金20多年的发展中，投资者需要用平常 心看待这类现象。主动权益基金持续焕发生机，需有数量更多、占比更高、业绩良好且持续的基金，才能惠及更多持有人。 "翻倍基"浪潮 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，2026年A股公司出海已告别单纯的商品出口阶段，进入 产能、品牌、管理体系协同输出的质变期。量化数据显示，2723家涉出海业务的A股公司中，60.96%持 积极态度，12393条相关公告中45.38%为积极类表述，反映出出海已从可选战略转为必选动作。龙头企 业通过海外建厂、本地化运营、全产业链配套，实现从中国制造到全球制造的跨越。 风险提示：需重点关注三大变量：一是贸易摩擦升级风险，欧美可能针对成熟制程芯片、电动车等领域 加码限制;二是汇率波动风险，若人民币大幅波动可能影响出海企业汇兑损益;三是地缘政治风险，海外 建厂面临的法律、劳工、政策变动风险不可忽视。 国信证券主要观点如下： "哑铃型"组合为最优配置，平衡稳健收益与成长弹性。投资策略应兼顾"全球化红利资产"与"技术突围 成长股"：左手聚焦高分红、低估值的稳健资产，如商用客车、化工新材料龙头，海外营收占比稳定且 现金流充沛;右手布局高成长、技术突破的进攻资产，对应"非常积极"类公司，如半导体设备、AI服务 器企业，受益于全球供应链重构与技术迭代，业绩有望非线性增长。两类资产形成互补，既抵御市场波 动，又把握产业 ...

Group 1: Cloud Infrastructure and AI Industry - Global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to reach $102.6 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 25% year-on-year growth, with market momentum remaining stable and exceeding 20% growth for the fifth consecutive quarter [3] - NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinet shipments are expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the AI sector [3] - Semiconductor foundry SMIC has begun raising prices by approximately 10% due to increased demand from AI and electric vehicles, suggesting a sustained high demand cycle in the semiconductor industry [3] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing and Electric Vehicles - Cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles reached 16.091 million units from January to October 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase, driving global power battery installation to approximately 867.4 GWh, up 34% year-on-year [6] - China accounted for 63.3% of global power battery installations, with the top ten companies holding six positions, indicating a strong competitive landscape [6] - The global battery chemistry landscape is characterized by a dual-track system dominated by lithium iron phosphate batteries, while high-end applications are maintained by ternary batteries [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector and Nike Performance - Nike's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $12.43 billion, a 0.6% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by the North American market and running categories [8] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was $790 million, a 31.9% year-on-year decline, but still surpassed Bloomberg's consensus estimate [8] - The overall apparel wholesale sales in the U.S. turned positive in September, indicating a healthy inventory situation and providing a foundation for future replenishment and brand recovery [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports in identifying investment opportunities, particularly in the commercial aerospace and rocket industry [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in the commercial rocket industry, with a 5% overall increase in the sector and individual stocks like Aerospace Power and Aerospace Electronics rising approximately 20% [1] Group 2 - Institutions are strongly recommending investments in upstream lithium battery materials, indicating a major cyclical turning point in this sector [2] - A specific company is identified as a promising investment within a hundred billion market, focusing on stable home appliance sliding rails and targeting a 63 billion AI server market, with plans to expand production by 27.5 million units, expected to release capacity by 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of AI, big data analytics, and edge computing on the global technology industry, marking a significant shift in technological innovation and product breakthroughs [2] - TrendForce hosted the "2026 Top Technology Market Trends Forecast and TechFuture Awards 2025," presenting key insights into various technology sectors including semiconductor manufacturing, storage, AI servers, and more [2][4] Group 1: Award Winners and Innovations - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) received the "AI Integrated Manufacturing Benchmark Award" for its revolutionary CoWoS technology, which supports the rapid growth of the AI industry through advanced packaging solutions and capacity expansion [5][6] - Samsung was awarded the "High-Performance Storage Leadership Award" for its advancements in storage technology that enhance capacity and performance, catering to mobile and AI computing needs [8][9] - Solidigm won the "Liquid Cooling Storage Technology Pioneer Award" for introducing the world's first enterprise SSD with direct liquid cooling, addressing heat management challenges in data centers [11][12] - Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. received the "Flash Memory Reliability Breakthrough Award" for its Xtacking® architecture, which sets new standards for reliability and data durability in 3D NAND flash technology [14] - KIOXIA was honored with the "Annual Storage Outstanding Innovation Award" for its high-capacity NVMe SSD, which simplifies deployment and reduces power consumption in AI training scenarios [16][17] - SanDisk was recognized with the "Flash Memory Technology Innovation Award" for its new storage solutions that enhance flash memory performance through innovative stacking techniques [19] - Huawei was awarded the "AI Server Excellence Contribution Award" for its dual-engine approach in AI servers, enhancing computational efficiency and reliability [22] - Innoscience Technology was recognized with the "China Power Semiconductor Pioneer Award" for its leadership in GaN technology, driving efficiency in various applications [24] - Trina Storage received the "Annual AIDC Green Energy Cornerstone Award" for its zero-carbon data center project, showcasing sustainable energy solutions [26] - Pasoni Sensory Technology was awarded the "AI Robotics Key Technology Award" for its advancements in tactile perception technology for humanoid robots [29] Group 2: Future Outlook - The TechFuture Awards not only celebrate the achievements of the past year but also emphasize the industry's commitment to innovation and the pursuit of a sustainable, intelligent future [31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 汇聚科技 (HuiJu Technology) is positioned well in the AI computing and MPO optical communication sectors, leading to significant growth potential [1] - The MPO business is identified as the main profit source for the company, with a strong market position and a 43% and 35% year-on-year increase in optical fiber revenue for 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [1] - The company is a key supplier in the Google ecosystem, with its MPO products experiencing high demand and profitability exceeding the company's average [1] Group 2 - Google Cloud's AI infrastructure head, Amin Vahdat, stated that Google aims to double its computing capacity every six months, targeting a 1000-fold increase over the next 4-5 years [2] - 华泰证券 (Huatai Securities) is optimistic about the performance of Google's Gemini 3 and Banana Pro, noting that initial benchmark results have exceeded expectations [2] - The ongoing growth in capital expenditures (Capex) from overseas cloud providers indicates a sustained high level of industry prosperity [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Huiju Technology (01729) is experiencing significant stock price growth due to strong demand for AI computing power and its strategic positioning in the MPO optical communication and AI server sectors [1] - Huiju Technology's MPO business is identified as the main source of profit, with a leading position in technology and a strong demand for its products, particularly the 16-core MPO which has begun mass shipments [1] - The revenue from optical fiber is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 43% in 2024 and 35% in the first half of 2025, indicating robust future growth potential for the MPO business [1] Group 2 - Google Cloud's AI infrastructure head revealed that Google aims to double its computing capacity every six months, targeting a 1000-fold increase over the next 4-5 years [2] - The performance of Google's new products, Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro, has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the trend that increased computing power leads to enhanced model capabilities [2] - The ongoing growth in capital expenditures (Capex) from overseas cloud providers suggests a sustained high level of industry prosperity [2]

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion, leading to significant volatility in U.S. stocks, with a dramatic drop occurring overnight [1][3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index initially rose over 2.5% but ultimately closed down 2.15%, while the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, marking the largest intraday reversal since April [4][6] - Over $2 trillion in market capitalization was wiped out in a matter of hours, with the VIX index spiking to 28.27, indicating extreme fear in the market [4][6] Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data has shown a sudden downturn, with employment and service sector indicators cooling, raising concerns about the risk of a hard landing [6] - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials have pushed back expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to instability in funding costs [6] Technology Sector Dynamics - Several major tech companies have reported supply chain issues, resulting in lowered shipment expectations for semiconductors and AI servers, which has triggered selling pressure in the tech sector [6] - Despite fears of an AI bubble, notable short-sellers are now advising against shorting large U.S. tech stocks, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [9][10] Investment Strategies - The CEO of Muddy Waters Capital, Carson Block, warns that the real bubble lies in companies falsely labeled as "AI" that lack solid fundamentals, rather than established leaders like Nvidia [12][13] - Block emphasizes that as long as funds continue to flow into the S&P 500, stocks like Nvidia will receive ongoing support, regardless of high valuations [13][14] - The current market environment is characterized by a "dual fear" where bulls are hesitant to chase prices due to bubble concerns, while bears are reluctant to short due to structural realities [17][18] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a complex state, with uncertainty about future trends, as both upward and downward pressures coexist [19][20] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors that ensure survival and profitability, with a focus on traditional industries that have shown resilience [21][22][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with Google's launch of Gemini 3, which outperforms previous models like GPT-5.1 and Sonnet4.5 in various evaluation metrics [1] - The strategic partnerships formed between Microsoft, Nvidia, and the AI startup Anthropic, with Nvidia committing up to $10 billion and Microsoft up to $5 billion in investments, indicate a strong collaborative effort to enhance AI computing capabilities [1] - The overall sentiment suggests that the upgrades in AI models and the collaboration among tech giants may catalyze growth in the AI computing industry [1] Group 2 - According to a previous report by China Merchants Securities, there is a strong demand for AI computing power, positioning the company well in the MPO optical communication and AI server sectors for high-quality growth [2] - The MPO business is identified as the company's core profit source, with a leading position in technology, and the 16-core MPO products have begun mass shipments, making the company a key supplier in Google's ecosystem [2] - The revenue from optical fibers is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 43% in the first half of 2024 and 35% in the first half of 2025, indicating robust demand and high profitability for the MPO business [2]