Group 1 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.26% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.88% [1] - Agricultural stocks and insurance concept stocks led the gains, with China Life and New China Life both rising over 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for non-bank financial themes has shown a decline in the short term but has experienced significant growth year-to-date, indicating a mixed performance in the financial sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Non-Bank Financial Theme Index fell by 2.62% to 3445.53 points, with a trading volume of 18.869 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 8.98%, and over the last three months, it has risen by 6.39%, with a year-to-date increase of 21.74% [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index comprises up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme criteria, reflecting the overall performance of this sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index include China Ping An (14.86%), AIA Group (14.77%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (14.3%), China Life (8.75%), China Pacific Insurance (6.66%), and others [1]. Group 3: Industry Representation - The index exclusively represents the financial sector, with a 100% allocation to financial companies [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has rated New China Life Insurance (NCI) H/A shares as "Sell," with a 12-month target price of HKD 20.5 and CNY 28.5, implying a FY26E P/B of 0.6x and 1.0x respectively [1] Recent Sales Momentum and New Business Value (NBV) Outlook - The sales of participating products have rebounded since April, shifting focus from traditional products, with participating products accounting for over 50% of new premiums in the agent channel during April and May [2] - The company aims for a 30% share of participating products in its portfolio by FY25, expecting the transition to continue over the next 2-3 years [2] - Participating products have lower profit margins compared to traditional products, but the company has narrowed this gap through specific product designs [2] Investment Allocation - The company invests approximately CNY 200-300 billion annually, with new fixed income investments yielding 2-3% [3] - The asset allocation strategy consists of 70-80% in fixed income and 20% in equities, with a stable stock investment of about 16% as of FY24 [3] - The company plans to increase high-dividend investments in 2025 while maintaining a conservative approach to equity allocation due to current levels exceeding its strategic range of 12-15% [3] Liability Cost and Business Performance - The current liability cost for the company's existing business exceeds 3%, close to the industry average, but is expected to decline as new policies in 2024 and 2025 have guaranteed liability costs below 2.5% [4] - By the end of FY24, variable products are projected to contribute 48% to the business, benefiting from high-yield assets from early investments [4] - Potential upside risks include a rebound in the A-share market, improved cost discipline, and aggressive dividend policies [4]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance is committed to a "steady progress" approach, focusing on value and first-year premium business development, achieving significant growth in premium income and new business value in 2025 [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first five months of 2025, Xinhua Insurance achieved premium income of 99.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26% [1]. - The total assets surpassed 1.75 trillion yuan in the first quarter, with premium, revenue, and net profit all maintaining double-digit year-on-year growth [1]. - The annualized total investment return rate for the first quarter was 5.7%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. - New business value saw a substantial increase of 67.9% [1][7]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Xinhua Insurance actively participates in the construction of a multi-level social security system, underwriting 20 welfare insurance projects in cities like Jiaozuo and Zhengzhou [2]. - The company has provided approximately 1.45 trillion yuan in insurance coverage to over 30,000 corporate clients [2]. - The second pillar annuity business of Xinhua Pension Company grew by 1.7 billion yuan, while the third pillar commercial annuity insurance balance reached 2.1 billion yuan, maintaining industry leadership [2]. Group 3: Customer-Centric Approach - Xinhua Insurance emphasizes a customer-centric strategy, enhancing product offerings and service capabilities [3][4]. - The company has launched new products such as "Medical Insurance Without Worries" to meet diverse healthcare needs [3]. - A comprehensive customer rights system has been upgraded, providing a wide range of services including health, wealth security, and family support [4]. Group 4: Organizational Development - The "XIN Plan" aims to create a comprehensive career growth scheme for agents, enhancing their service and insurance supply capabilities [5]. - The company has seen double-digit growth in premium income across its three major channels in the first quarter of 2025 [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Xinhua Insurance plans to continue high-quality development, aligning with national strategies and focusing on five major areas: large-scale products, market expansion, service enhancement, and significant investments [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is rated as "outperforming the market" by Guolian Minsheng Securities, with expectations for positive trends in both the liability and asset sides, leading to improved investment returns and valuation recovery for insurance companies [1] Group 1: Stock and Performance Analysis - From January 2, 2025, to May 30, 2025, the insurance index increased by 0.1%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.4%, indicating that the insurance index slightly outperformed the broader market [1] - Individual stock performance varied significantly, with China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, New China Life Insurance, China Ping An, China Taiping, and China People’s Insurance showing price changes of +21.9%, +9.5%, +1.2%, +1.2%, +1.0%, and -8.7% respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, listed insurance companies showed strong performance on the liability side, with positive growth in life insurance NBV and improved COR for property insurance, although net profit and net asset performance on the asset side varied due to differences in investment strategies and asset classifications [1] Group 2: Life Insurance Sector Insights - The focus on the life insurance sector is primarily on NBV performance and interest spread risk, with short-term demand for insurance products slowing, leading to growth pressure on new single premiums [2] - However, measures such as the implementation of "reporting and pricing integration" in individual channels, potential further reductions in product preset interest rates, and active adjustments in product structures are expected to support a positive growth trend in NBV [2] - The liability cost is anticipated to improve significantly as the industry shifts towards dividend insurance products and adjusts preset interest rates in line with market rates [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Sector Insights - The low interest rate environment has prompted regulators to guide property insurance companies to enhance underwriting profitability, leading to noticeable improvements in COR [3] - The implementation of "reporting and pricing integration" in auto insurance is expected to extend to non-auto insurance, further improving COR in the property insurance sector [3] - The increasing share of new energy vehicle insurance is seen as a key area for future reforms, with expectations for reduced claims ratios and improved COR as policies are implemented [3] Group 4: Asset and Liability Management - The importance of matching assets and liabilities has increased due to the downward trend in long-term interest rates and the implementation of new standards, leading to greater volatility in insurance company profit statements [4] - To stabilize net profit and net assets, insurance companies are expected to increase allocations to bonds and high-dividend stocks [4] - Increasing the proportion of bonds will help extend asset duration and reduce the duration gap between assets and liabilities, while high-dividend stocks will enhance investment returns and mitigate the impact of declining investment yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is becoming increasingly competitive, and a customer-centric service philosophy is essential for driving industry growth [4][6]. Group 1: Customer-Centric Service - Understanding and accurately meeting customer needs is a professional standard that every insurance practitioner must achieve to enhance customer satisfaction and stand out in the market [4]. - The story of Qi Maihua, a manager at Xinhua Insurance, exemplifies the importance of customer service and has inspired colleagues to improve service quality [4][11]. Group 2: Integrity in Service - Integrity is emphasized as the cornerstone of insurance services, with practitioners required to maintain truthful information and avoid misleading clients [6]. - Qi Maihua's decision to reject an insurance application from a client attempting to conceal health issues highlights the long-term value of integrity, resulting in three referrals despite potential short-term performance impacts [6]. Group 3: Service Innovation - Continuous service innovation is crucial for enhancing customer satisfaction, with practitioners encouraged to explore new service models to meet diverse customer needs [8]. - Qi Maihua has initiated various activities, such as "Policy Review" and "Daily Reading Club," to improve her professional skills and foster a sense of belonging among clients [8]. Group 4: Professional Team Development - The team led by Qi Maihua focuses on "Integrity, Professionalism, and Service" as core standards, emphasizing service quality and achieving impressive performance [11]. - Qi Maihua prioritizes team building and the cultivation of professionals with service awareness through regular training and assessment [11]. - The establishment of a comprehensive internal management mechanism ensures the efficiency and standardization of service processes [11].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of "insurance系" private equity funds is driven by regulatory guidance for long-term capital market entry and the actual needs of insurance companies to adapt to a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Establishment and Scale - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in the Honghu III private equity fund, co-established by Xinhua Asset and China Life Asset [2][3]. - Since May, at least seven "insurance系" private equity funds or products have been established, indicating a surge in activity among insurance companies [3][4]. - The Honghu III fund has a total scale of 22.5 billion yuan, with Xinhua Insurance and China Life each contributing 11.25 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Strategy - The establishment of these private equity funds reflects the results of the insurance capital's "long money long investment" strategy, driven by policy support and the need for better asset allocation in a declining interest rate environment [5]. - The long-term investment pilot program initiated in 2023 allows insurance companies to set up private equity funds primarily targeting the secondary market stocks for long-term holding [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Focus and Trends - The investment focus of these funds is expected to be on high-dividend, low-volatility stable assets, with an emphasis on companies with strong governance and good business models [10][11]. - The first phase of the Honghu fund primarily invested in key industries related to national interests, while the second phase is set to focus on large-cap A+H shares [10][11]. - Other insurance companies are also expected to follow similar investment strategies, focusing on stable, high-quality listed companies [11][12]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Context - The pilot program for long-term investment is expected to expand by 2025, with several insurance companies already approved to participate [6][7]. - The total approved scale for the three batches of long-term investment reform trials is estimated to reach 222 billion yuan, with expectations for further increases in approved scales [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][21]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical risks and market volatility are increasing, particularly due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and U.S.-China trade negotiations, which may suppress market risk appetite [1][9]. - The non-bank financial sector, excluding insurance, has shown relative stagnation, while the banking sector has experienced significant volatility [1][9]. - The report suggests that financial weight sectors may benefit from an increase in market risk appetite and related policies, with a focus on the upcoming political bureau meeting in July [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The report covers the performance of major indices, with the CSI 300 Index at 3864.18 points (-0.25%), the insurance index at 1229.00 points (2.06%), and the brokerage index at 6189.87 points (0.82%) [7]. - The insurance sector's investment scale is expected to grow steadily, with a notable increase in bond and stock allocations [2][10]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery. Recommended stocks include China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance [11]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - Focus on mid-sized securities firms benefiting from innovation and market conditions, such as East Money and Zheshang Securities. Large firms like Huatai Securities and China International Capital Corporation are also recommended due to their strong performance and low valuations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent transfer of shares from Commonwealth Bank of Australia to New China Life Insurance marks a significant shift in the shareholder structure of Hangzhou Bank, with New China Life now holding over 5% of the bank's shares, positioning itself as the fourth largest shareholder [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has completely divested its stake in Hangzhou Bank, transferring 330 million shares to New China Life Insurance, which now holds a total of 5.09% of the bank's shares [1][2]. - The transaction price of 13.1 yuan per share for New China Life is significantly lower than Hangzhou Bank's closing price of 16.56 yuan on June 16, indicating a strategic long-term investment rather than a short-term profit [2][12]. - New China Life's acquisition aligns with its strategy to enhance its long-term investment portfolio and optimize its asset structure amid increasing competition for investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 2: Strategic Intentions - New China Life's investment in Hangzhou Bank is not only aimed at increasing dividend assets but also at leveraging the bank's extensive network in the Yangtze River Delta region to expand its market presence [3][24]. - The bank has established a comprehensive service network in Zhejiang province, which is crucial for New China Life as it seeks to tap into the region's high growth potential [3][24]. - The collaboration between New China Life and Hangzhou Bank could lead to enhanced synergies in various business areas, particularly in insurance and banking services [4][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Performance - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has been a shareholder in Hangzhou Bank for 20 years, witnessing significant growth in the bank's asset size from under 50 billion yuan to over 2.11 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10]. - The bank's net profit growth of 18.07% in 2024, alongside stable asset quality metrics, reflects its resilience in a challenging market environment [7][8]. - The exit of Commonwealth Bank is part of a broader trend where foreign banks are reducing their stakes in Chinese financial institutions due to rising compliance costs and a strategic focus on domestic markets [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The current environment of asset scarcity and regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to enter the market has led to a growing preference among insurance companies for long-term dividend assets [17][19]. - New accounting standards have facilitated this trend, allowing insurance firms to classify bank stocks as long-term investments, which aligns with New China Life's strategy to enhance its long-term equity investment base [18][19]. - New China Life's OCI account for equity investments has seen substantial growth, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [82]. Core Insights - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of new business, with a projected decrease in the rate to 2% in the third quarter, which will lower the rigid cost of liabilities and improve product profitability [8][12]. - The expansion of long-term stock investment trials is anticipated to increase the flexibility of the asset side, with insurance companies actively seeking higher-yield risk assets to mitigate the pressure from interest rate spreads [20][27]. - There is a need for further optimization in asset-liability matching, as mismatches in duration can lead to fluctuations in net assets, particularly under the IFRS 17 standards [42][50]. - The valuation of insurance companies is primarily driven by improvements in the asset side, with the current PEV valuation level at 0.70, indicating that market valuations are below the intrinsic value of the companies [59][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Predetermined Interest Rates - The upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance is currently set at 2.5%, with a projected decrease to 2% in the upcoming quarter, which is expected to enhance the new business value [8][12]. - The insurance premium income for life insurance is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% as of April 2025, marking a positive shift in the market [12][14]. 2. Expansion of Long-term Stock Investment Trials - The total scale of long-term stock investment trials has reached 222 billion, with several major insurance companies participating [25]. - The demand for high-yield risk assets is increasing as insurance companies seek to cover the rigid costs associated with liabilities [27][33]. 3. Need for Optimization in Asset-Liability Matching - The mismatch in asset and liability durations is causing volatility in net assets, necessitating better alignment to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [42][50]. - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies remains around 4%, which poses challenges for long-term asset yield stabilization [50][56]. 4. Valuation Driven by Asset Side Improvements - The contribution of insurance contract services to profits is significant, with new business value expected to enhance overall performance [59][61]. - The current average PB valuation for five A-share insurance companies is 1.6, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical data [67][71].