Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][10]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a representative brand of popular and affordable Chinese cuisine, focusing on providing home-style dishes and quality service. It has shown strong performance in core operating metrics and rapid store expansion, aligning with current consumer trends in the restaurant industry [3][5][16]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 703 million, 842 million, and 1,003 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leader in the popular and affordable Chinese dining sector, dedicated to developing traditional and innovative Huizhou cuisine. The core team has extensive experience in the restaurant industry, and the company operates 667 stores as of 2024, primarily through a pure franchise model [5][16]. Industry Potential - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery, with the popular and affordable Chinese dining market showing significant growth potential. The market structure is fragmented, with a dominant share of products priced below 100 yuan, and the sector is expected to expand further due to innovation and a growing lower-tier market [6][48]. Operational Efficiency - The company employs standardized operations and a self-built supply chain to enhance product quality and control costs. The single-store model is highly competitive, and the company has significant room for expansion, particularly in high-tier cities [7][39]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated robust revenue and profit growth, with a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.52%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2021 to 2024 is 25.34%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders has a CAGR of 36.79% during the same period [39][43].

2025 年 5 月 21 日 行业研究 餐饮行业有望复苏，关注供应链相关标的 ——餐饮链板块跟踪报告 要点 25Q1 餐饮市场热度相较 24 年全年呈现缓慢复苏态势，门店数量有所增加。根 据章鱼小数据统计的餐饮热度均值，25Q1 餐饮市场相较 24 年全年呈现缓慢复 苏态势。分季度看，24 年前三季度餐饮市场消费相对疲软，24Q4 市场热度明显 提升，或受益于各地陆续发放餐饮消费券，同时节假日消费较为活跃。25Q1 餐 饮景气度环比略有回落，估计与春节假期影响有关，但对比 24 年全年仍处于修 复通道。结合社零数据来看，24 年春节后在前一年高基数下，全国餐饮收入同 比增速明显回落，25 年以来增速有所抬升，3 月社零餐饮收入/限额以上餐饮收 入同比分别为+5.6%/+6.8%、较 1-2 月亦有提速。从门店端来看，24 年前三季 度门店数量较为平稳，24Q4 开始餐饮门店数量有所提升，24Q4/25Q1 门店数 量环比增加 1.5%/1.8%，行业内部竞争依旧激烈。 25Q1 一线城市餐饮热度环比有所提升，政策刺激有望带动需求改善，门店端竞 争淘汰加剧。从不同层级城市来看，一线城市餐饮热度自 24Q4 以 ...

中信建投也指出，24年10月起，上海、杭州等地陆续推出餐饮消费券，3月北京亦发放餐饮消费券，关注政策逐步展开下旺季餐饮端需求复苏，行业库存 保持低位，低基数下后续回暖可期。 二、历史龙头表现 一、事件：《餐饮业促进和经营管理办法》实施 商务部、国家发改委5月16日联合发布的《餐饮业促进和经营管理办法》，将于2025年6月15日起实施。 据商务部介绍，本次《办法》修订大幅增加了餐饮业促进内容，包括大幅增加行业促进条款，增加餐饮业对外交流合作、数字化发展、标准制修订、地 方特色餐饮培育等方面的鼓励性条款；细化反食品浪费有关要求等。 值得注意的是，此次修订不仅注重了制度层面的完善，还强调了实践操作的可行性。通过细化各项要求和措施，为餐饮服务经营者提供了更加具体、可 操作的指导，有助于提升整个行业的服务水平和竞争力。 开源证券表示，展望2025年，餐饮行业可能具备修复机会： 一是宴席市场需求可能回暖，婚宴需求增加；二是类似餐饮消费券等补贴政策可能持续出台，强化餐饮需求；三是商务餐饮边际已略有回暖，如果经济 活跃度提升，后续商务餐饮需求可能持续增加。餐饮相关产业链如啤酒、调味品、速冻食品等行业可能带来机会，应适当予以关 ...