摩根大通电池分析师预计，在政策激励和电网级项目持续部署的支持下，2026年全球储能电池出货量将 同比增长30%，达到约770GWh。正是考虑到储能带来的额外14-16.5万吨碳酸锂当量(LCE)需求，摩根 大通才将其对锂市场的中期供需预测从过剩扭转为短缺。此外，中信建投表示，看好储能超预期增长带 来的锂电电池和材料端出货量和价格上修带来的机会。预计2026年国内、海外动力电池需求分别同比 +16%/20%，全球动力电池需求1559GWh，同比+17%。 智通财经APP获悉，锂业股早盘走强，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨4.76%，报53.9港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨4.5%，报55.75港元。 消息面上，摩根大通在最新中国锂行业报告中，罕见地承认了此前的误判，并宣布将天齐锂业和赣锋锂 业的评级从"减持"上调至"中性"。此举标志着摩根大通对锂市场基本面的重大修正，摩根大通表示，核 心在于此前严重低估储能(ESS)市场的爆发性需求。摩根大通预计，全球锂市场在2025和2026年仍将面 临供应缺口。这一判断迫使该行将2026年锂价预测从人民币7万元/吨大幅上调至9万元/吨，涨幅近 30%。 ...

Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) increased by 4.96% [1] - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) rose by 4.87% [1] - Zhongchu Innovation (03931.HK) saw a gain of 1.11% [1] - Tianneng Power (00819.HK) experienced an increase of 0.86% [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 (10th) Starting Point Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony will take place from December 17-19, 2025, in Shenzhen, focusing on new technologies and ecosystems in the lithium battery sector [2][3]. Industry Developments - In early 2025, BMW announced the upcoming installation of large cylindrical batteries in 2026, prompting a surge in the industry towards 46 series large cylindrical batteries [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries, sparking widespread discussions on battery performance [1]. - Several companies have begun mass production of full-tab cylindrical batteries, which are expected to find applications in electric vehicles, tools, and smart homes due to their high rate and long lifespan advantages [1]. - Solid-state batteries continue to gain attention for their high safety and energy density, maintaining high interest levels in 2025 [1]. Storage Sector Trends - The cancellation of mandatory storage policies by the state has raised concerns about future demand for storage batteries [1]. - The 314Ah battery is gradually replacing the 280Ah as the mainstream cell, with companies like CATL and EVE Energy releasing cells with capacities exceeding 500Ah, indicating a trend towards larger capacity storage cells [1]. - The U.S. tariff policy imposed in 2025 has impacted the global storage industry [1]. Emerging Applications - The debut of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala in early 2025 has spurred interest in batteries for humanoid robots, becoming a new focus for battery companies [1]. - Various local policies promoting low-altitude economies are accelerating the development of the eVTOL industry [1]. Material Innovations - The 9 series ultra-high nickel ternary cathodes are being widely adopted, while lithium manganese iron phosphate cathodes are being tested in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles [1]. - The application of silicon-based anodes in conjunction with full-tab technology is increasing [1]. Event Highlights - The conference will feature over 2000 attendees and 60+ keynote speakers discussing core issues and technological breakthroughs [3]. - The event will include nine specialized forums and the 10th Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award ceremony, recognizing outstanding contributions to the lithium battery industry [3][7]. - The event will also host the 2025 China New Energy Entrepreneurs Club Council meeting, facilitating direct connections among industry leaders [3]. Agenda Overview - The event will include specialized sessions on cylindrical battery technology, soft-pack batteries, new materials and processes, and storage battery technology [5][6]. - Key topics will cover advancements in fast-charging technologies, energy density improvements, and safety standards [5][6]. Award Information - The Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award aims to encourage innovation in the lithium battery industry and recognize outstanding brands [7]. - The award selection process will take place from September 1 to December 19, 2025, with various categories including technology innovation and customer trust [8][10].

Group 1 - A new company, South China Ganfeng Comprehensive Energy (Guangdong) Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 50 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Huang Tengfei [1] - The business scope includes energy storage technology services, new energy technology research and development, online energy monitoring technology research and development, and energy recovery system research and development [1] Group 2 - The company is wholly owned by Ganfeng Lithium (002460) through indirect holdings [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current futures market shows high - level volatility, with continuous inventory reduction and good support from the consumer side. However, after the price increase, spot trading has weakened, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices is relatively limited. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress, and it is expected to gradually resume production. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine resumes production, the inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and the futures market may decline [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 11, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 87,700 yuan/ton and closed at 86,540 yuan/ton, with a 1.38% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 902,490 lots, and the open interest was 526,493 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day. The current basis is - 4,800 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,8099 lots, a change of 608 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,600 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,600 - 80,600 yuan/ton, also with a change of 1,550 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,013 US dollars/ton, a change of 18 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factories are cautiously waiting and only making rigid - demand purchases, and the market transactions are mainly based on post - pricing. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November will be roughly the same as that in October. The power market and the energy storage market are both growing [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced that the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina has obtained the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report", and it plans to submit an application to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources and uses direct lithium extraction technology and solar evaporation pond technology [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices. - There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Core Insights - JPMorgan has reversed its bearish stance on the lithium industry, acknowledging a significant underestimation of the explosive demand in the energy storage (ESS) market [1][3] - The bank upgraded its ratings for Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from "Underweight" to "Neutral," indicating a major correction in its outlook on the lithium market fundamentals [1][3] - JPMorgan expects a supply shortage in the global lithium market in 2025 and 2026, prompting a substantial increase in its lithium price forecast for 2026 from RMB 70,000 per ton to RMB 90,000 per ton, a nearly 30% increase [1][6] Energy Storage Demand - The surge in energy storage demand is identified as a key driver of stock prices, outweighing the negative impacts of supply factors such as the resumption of operations at CATL's mines [3][4] - Energy storage batteries accounted for over 25% of global battery production since June, with 40% of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery production attributed to this segment [4] - JPMorgan forecasts a 30% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments by 2026, reaching approximately 770 GWh, driven by policy incentives and ongoing deployment of grid-level projects [4] Supply Dynamics - The resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxi mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 45,000 to 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), is expected to provide some relief to the current market tightness, but it will not be sufficient to fill the significant supply gap [5][6] - Even with the inclusion of the Jiangxi mine's output, the market is anticipated to remain in a state of shortage in 2025 and 2026 [6] - JPMorgan's supply forecasts remain largely unchanged, with slight increases in projections for 2029/2030, while noting that expansions in Australia and Chile may not fully offset delays in Brazil due to financing constraints [6] Price Target Adjustments - JPMorgan has raised its price targets for Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium significantly, with Ganfeng's A-shares target increased from RMB 30 to RMB 65, and H-shares from HKD 22 to HKD 48 [6] - Tianqi Lithium's A-shares target has been adjusted from RMB 30 to RMB 54, and H-shares from HKD 28 to HKD 50, reflecting the revised outlook on lithium prices and market conditions [6]

Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium's stock dropped by 2.34% on November 11, with a trading volume of 5.323 billion yuan, indicating market volatility [1] - The company reported a net financing outflow of 7.2611 million yuan on the same day, with a total financing and securities balance of 4.251 billion yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached 14.625 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.02%, while net profit increased by 103.99% to 25.52 million yuan [2] Financing and Securities - On November 11, Ganfeng Lithium had a financing buy-in of 593 million yuan, with a financing balance of 4.237 billion yuan, accounting for 3.88% of its market capitalization [1] - The company's financing balance is above the 90th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of leverage [1] - The short selling activity on the same day included a repayment of 8,000 shares and a sale of 2,900 shares, with a short selling balance of 1.43975 million yuan, also above the 90th percentile of the past year [1] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Ganfeng Lithium had 372,500 shareholders, an increase of 31.18% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 23.77% to 3,243 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 6.162 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.933 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 69.1199 million shares, and several ETFs, with some reducing their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. has reduced its stake in Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. by selling 1,092,220 shares at an average price of HKD 49.7455 per share, amounting to approximately HKD 54.33 million, resulting in a decrease in their ownership percentage from 8.19% to 7.95% [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Share Reduction Details** - JPMorgan Chase & Co. sold 1,092,220 shares of Ganfeng Lithium on November 6, 2025 [1]. - The transaction was executed at an average price of HKD 49.7455 per share, totaling around HKD 54.33 million [1][2]. - **Current Holdings** - After the sale, JPMorgan's total holdings in Ganfeng Lithium are now 35,502,261 shares [1]. - The ownership percentage has decreased from 8.19% to 7.95% following the reduction [1].

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong rebound due to surging demand for energy storage, supply uncertainties, and ongoing inventory depletion [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown significant volatility, reaching a low of 59,900 yuan/ton in June 2023 and rebounding to 82,400 yuan/ton by November 11, 2023, marking a 37.59% increase [1] Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fluctuated dramatically over the past five years, peaking at 567,600 yuan/ton in November 2022 before a prolonged decline [1] - The current price stabilization follows a "roller coaster" trend, with supply-demand mismatches and inventory adjustments contributing to price volatility [1] Industry Performance - Major lithium companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have reported a return to profitability in Q3 2023, with Ganfeng Lithium's net profit at 557 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium's at 95.485 million yuan [2] - The average breakeven price for lithium carbonate is considered to be around 70,000 yuan/ton, with current prices providing support for cost-advantaged companies [2] Future Outlook - Short-term demand from downstream battery manufacturers is expected to support lithium carbonate prices [2] - Long-term projections suggest prices may fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with the upper limit reflecting the need for new capital investment in Australian mines [2] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are actively seizing opportunities during this upward price cycle, with initiatives such as Qinghai Salt Lake Industry's new lithium salt project and Ganfeng Lithium's expansion in lithium resource acquisition and processing capacity [2][3] - Emphasis on technological innovation and efficient resource utilization is crucial for the industry's transformation and upgrading [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan reduced its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) by 1,092,220 shares at an average price of HKD 49.7455 per share, totaling approximately HKD 54.33 million [1] - After the reduction, JPMorgan's latest holding is approximately 35,502,300 shares, representing a holding percentage of 7.95% [1]