● 本报记者 马爽 12月19日，由中国证券报主办的"财富向善 智理未来"2025财富配置与资产管理大会在深圳举行。广发 证券首席经济学家郭磊在发表主旨演讲时表示，激活经济潜能的关键，在于精准把握蕴含的五大潜在空 间。此外，"十五五"规划建议的相关部署，也为上述潜能释放筑牢了坚实的政策支撑。未来5至10年， 中国经济有望依托三条核心路径，实现供需的动态匹配与均衡发展。 "日前召开的中央经济工作会议提出，'必须充分激活整个经济的潜能'，这一表述的背后是中央对当前 经济形势的深刻洞察与精准把握。"郭磊表示，当前经济"供强需弱"矛盾突出，缓解这一矛盾的关键在 于补齐需求短板，而补齐短板的核心抓手正是充分激活经济潜能。基于这一判断，郭磊分别从五个关键 领域详细剖析了经济增长的潜在空间。 "固定资产投资的止跌回升与长效机制构建，成为当前宏观经济调控的重要着力点。"郭磊表示，2025年 中央经济工作会议明确提出推动投资止跌回稳，这释放出强烈的稳投资政策信号。从政策落地节奏来 看，进入四季度后广义财政已率先发力，政策性金融工具重点向经济大省倾斜，这一举措将成为撬动 2026年投资回暖的关键抓手。着眼长远发展，郭磊进一步表示 ...

Market Overview - The US CPI annual rate decline has led to a rise in US stocks, boosting risk market sentiment [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened higher and closed up 0.75%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.68% and 1.12% respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Tencent up 1.49%, Kuaishou up 1.45%, and Meituan up 1.28% [4] - Pharmaceutical stocks were active, with WuXi AppTec and other related stocks rising [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China leading with a 6.6% increase [2][5] - AI-driven demand boosted optical fiber and cable stocks, with Yangtze Optical Fiber rising 12% [2] - Automotive, wind power, education, photovoltaic, insurance, and Apple-related stocks also experienced gains [2] Notable Stock Movements - Xpeng Motors rose 7.65%, Horizon Robotics up 7.04%, and Li Auto up 3.81% [4][10] - Electronic cigarette stocks saw significant increases, with China Tobacco Hong Kong up 6.68% [5] - Chinese brokerage stocks rose, with China International Capital Corporation up over 4% [7] - Intelligent driving concept stocks surged, with Youjia Innovation up 31.22% [8] Weak Performers - Heavy machinery stocks faced declines, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group down over 6% [13] - Gold and precious metal stocks were weak, with several companies experiencing declines of over 2% [16] - Oil stocks also fell, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation down 1.52% [15] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 3.371 billion, with net selling from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and net buying from Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [18] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that after a strong performance in September, Hong Kong stocks are undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with quality assets entering a high-value zone [18]

Core Insights - The aviation industry experienced an expansion in supply and demand growth year-on-year in November, with domestic routes showing significant improvement and international routes surpassing 2019 levels [1][3] - The overall passenger load factor increased by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, with domestic routes seeing a 2.1 percentage point increase to 86.6% [1] - Despite short-term demand pressure on China-Japan international routes, the long-term recovery trend remains intact, supported by resilient demand and price elasticity [3] Industry Performance - In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same month of 2019 [1] - Domestic routes saw supply and demand growth of 4.2% and 6.8%, while international routes experienced a more robust increase of 15.0% and 20.7% [1] - The three major airlines reported a supply and demand increase of 6.7% and 10.3% year-on-year, with Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factor at 87.4% [2] Airline-Specific Insights - Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines led in passenger load factors among private carriers, with Spring Airlines achieving a 92.3% load factor [2] - China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery in load factor, increasing by 3.9 percentage points to 83.3% in November [2] - Hainan Airlines and China National Airlines are highlighted as preferred investment choices due to their performance and recovery potential [3]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings has achieved solid results in advertising and gaming through AI technology and category expansion, with the advertising business expected to maintain strong growth momentum due to continuous iterations of AI technology and the proliferation of systems like AIM+ [1] - Tencent Cloud has made initial progress in international markets, opening services in 22 physical regions and 64 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 global acceleration nodes [1] - Southeast Asia is identified as a key focus area for Tencent Cloud over the next 3-5 years, driven by stable energy and power supply, with Thailand and Indonesia being primary infrastructure targets [1] Group 2 - Tencent has established a comprehensive AI strategy, enhancing talent acquisition to accelerate AI integration into its business model [2] - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting revenues of 752.4 billion and 827.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 258.6 billion and 295.3 billion yuan [3] - The estimated fair value based on the latest share capital is 754.73 HKD per share for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has achieved solid results in advertising and gaming businesses through AI technology and category expansion, with a strong growth momentum expected in advertising due to continuous iterations of AI technology and the proliferation of systems like AIM+ [1] Group 1: Advertising and Gaming Business - The advertising business is anticipated to maintain robust growth driven by ongoing advancements in AI technology [1] - Tencent is entering a new product expansion cycle in the shooting game category, supported by a rich investment system, which is expected to sustain steady growth in both overseas and domestic markets [1] Group 2: Cloud Business Expansion - Tencent Cloud has made initial progress in international markets, opening services in 22 physical regions and 64 availability zones, with over 3,200 global acceleration nodes [2] - Southeast Asia is identified as a key focus area for the next 3-5 years due to stable energy and power supply, with Thailand and Indonesia being primary infrastructure targets [2] - Tencent Cloud's differentiated advantages stem from its domestic experience in media, gaming, and financial technology, aiding in customer acquisition in emerging markets [2] Group 3: AI Strategy and Talent Acquisition - Tencent has established a matrix structure around AI infrastructure, agents, and applications, enhancing its AI strategy and attracting top talent, which is expected to accelerate AI development [3] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of 752.4 billion and 827.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 14.0% and 10.0% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profits are expected to reach 258.6 billion and 295.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.1% and 14.2% [4] - The target price based on the latest share capital and SOTP valuation is set at 754.73 HKD per share for 2026 [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 Securities Times Analyst Annual Conference and Best Analyst Awards Ceremony was held in Suzhou on December 17, showcasing significant achievements in the investment research sector [1] Individual Awards - Qiu Guanhua from Zheshang Securities won the Master Analyst SSR award, emphasizing a commitment to professional research and the financial industry [2] - Wu Bohua from Changjiang Securities and Guan Quansen from Guolian Minsheng Securities received the Star Analyst SSR awards, highlighting their contributions to the new energy and home appliance sectors respectively [3] - Sun Yuanyuan from Industrial Securities and He Yaxuan from Guosheng Securities were awarded the Golden Analyst SSR, recognizing their work in the pharmaceutical and construction industries [4][5] Team Awards - The Best Research Team SSR award was shared among several institutions, including Changjiang Securities, GF Securities, Industrial Securities, and others, reflecting a collective effort in research excellence [1][6] - Each winning team expressed gratitude towards their colleagues, investors, and the platforms that support their research endeavors, emphasizing teamwork and dedication [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Securities Times Analyst Annual Conference and Best Analyst Awards Ceremony was held in Suzhou, highlighting the achievements of analysts and research teams in the financial industry [2]. Awards and Recognitions - The event awarded three major individual awards: Master Analyst SSR to Qiu Guanhua from Zheshang Securities, Star Analyst SSR to Wu Bohua from Changjiang Securities and Guan Quansen from Guolian Minsheng Securities, and Golden Analyst SSR to Sun Yuanyuan from Industrial Securities and He Yaxuan from Guosheng Securities [3][6][7][8]. - The Best Research Team SSR award was given to multiple institutions including Changjiang Securities, GF Securities, Industrial Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Guotai Junan Securities, Guosheng Securities, Dongwu Securities, Huachuang Securities, Zheshang Securities, and CITIC Construction Investment Securities [3]. Individual Award Highlights - Qiu Guanhua emphasized the importance of dedication and professionalism in research, aiming to establish a top-tier research institute [6]. - Wu Bohua expressed gratitude for the support from investors and highlighted the opportunities in the new energy sector [7]. - Guan Quansen acknowledged the platform provided by the Securities Times and New Fortune magazine for sell-side research [7]. - Sun Yuanyuan noted the exciting prospects for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025 and the importance of innovation [8]. - He Yaxuan recognized the responsibility that comes with the "Golden Analyst" title and committed to delivering better research outcomes [8]. Team Award Highlights - Changjiang Securities highlighted the collective effort of its team and the growth fostered by its culture [9]. - GF Securities expressed gratitude to the judges and fellow analysts, emphasizing continuous improvement [9]. - Industrial Securities thanked the platform provided by the Securities Times and the support from institutional investors [9]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities reflected on its long-standing history and commitment to seizing new opportunities [9]. - Guotai Junan Securities aimed to build a competitive investment bank through professional research [10].

动力：国内乘用车平稳增长+商用车快速渗透，海外新车型周期带动需求超预期 分区域来看：(1)中国：25年抢装带动需求高增，预计26年乘用车平稳增长，商用车快速渗透，单车带 电量提升贡献额外增长。(2)美国：25年大而美法案与FEOC条款调整压制市场需求，预计26年增长趋 缓。(3)欧洲：25年电动化率加速提升，26年碳排放法案+新车型周期驱动增长。(4)其他地区：政策红利 密集释放，助推电动化率提升。该行测算，25-27年全球动力电池需求为1253.4/1520.5/1834.2GWh，同 比增速为26%/21%/21%。 储能：容量电价完善国内大储商业模式，经济性驱动海外储能增长 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，国内乘用车平稳增长+商用车快速渗透，海外新车型周期带 动需求超预期。30%是当前锂电行业供需平衡的核心临界增速阈值。当前测算26年锂电总需求将达 2495GWh，较25年1944GWh同比+28%。该行看好动力和储能需求共同带动锂电周期反转，电池和材料 均有望迎来发展新机遇。 广发证券主要观点如下： 龙头企业盈利能力不佳，扩产意愿不足，需求旺季下主材、辅材价格普涨。该行认为，30%是当前锂电 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Securities Times Analyst Annual Conference and Best Analyst Award Ceremony was held in Suzhou, featuring over 60 securities firms, nearly 100 listed companies, and around 2,000 guests [2][3] - The conference theme was "Going Far by Starting Small," focusing on enhancing financial service quality to support the real economy [2] - The event included a main forum and specialized forums, showcasing the strongest research teams and discussing investment hotspots [2][3] Group 2 - The 2025 Best Analyst Award winners were announced, with notable firms like Changjiang Securities, GF Securities, and others recognized for their research capabilities [3] - The award for "Visionary Investment Institutions" was given based on voting accuracy across 30 research areas, with several prominent funds receiving accolades [4] - Over 800 institutions participated in the voting process, managing assets exceeding 100 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone [4] Group 3 - The conference included discussions on investment strategies for 2026, with insights from top analysts on macroeconomic trends and market directions [5] - Key themes included the rise of global narratives, economic differentiation, and the performance of precious metals and emerging market stocks [6] - Analysts expressed a cautious outlook for 2026, anticipating a narrowing of economic temperature differences and potential policy space in the real estate sector [6][7]

广发证券股份有限公司是一家主要从事证券业务的中国公司。该公司通过五个分部开展业务。投资银行 分部从事股权融资、债务融资、财务顾问和企业解决方案等。财富管理分部从事零售证券经纪、期货经 纪、金融产品代销、融资融券及回购交易融资服务、融资租赁等。交易及机构客户服务分部主要从事为 机构客户提供证券研究、资产托管服务、销售及投资交易（包括自营和其他对客交易服务）、另类投资 等。投资管理分部从事资产管理、公募基金管理、私募基金管理等。其他分部主要为公司总部运营。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 | 交易日 | 持股总数 (股) | 持股变动(股) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-12-18 | 10.05亿 | 193.64万 | 0.19% | | 2025-12-17 | 10.03亿 | 175.12万 | 0.17% | | 2025-12-16 | 10.01亿 | -635.08万 | -0.63% | | 2025-12-15 | 10.07亿 | 44.60万 ...