理想汽车（LI.O/2015.HK） 更新报告 买入 2024 年 11 月 8 日 智能驾驶推送加速，车辆毛利率回升明显 公司 Q3 业绩符合预期：公司 2024 年 Q3 实现车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同比增长 22.9%，环比增长 36.3%。2024 年 Q3 汽车总交付 量为 15.3 万辆，同比增长 45.4%。Q3 车辆毛利率提升至 20.9%。 净利润 28.1 亿元，同比减少 0.3%。新产品 L6 抬升整体销量，平 均月销量达到 25000 台，进一步扩大 20 万元及以上的国内新能源 汽车市场份额，理想市场份额由 2024 年 Q2 的 14.4%增加至 Q3 的 17.3%，公司计划目标四季度至明年进一步提升 L6 产能。公司预指 引 4 季度交付量为 16-17 万辆，收入指引 432 亿-459 亿元。 费用率改善明显：公司 2024 年 Q3 研发费用率 6%，同比减少 2.1pct，环比减少 3.5pct；SG&A 费用率分别为 7.8%，同比增长 0.5pct，环比减少 1.1pct。新产品推出放缓，部分研发费用降 低，智驾方面路径变化导致研发成本减少，雇员薪酬减少。此 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 10 月交付数据点评： 交付能力升级，端到端加速推送 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 10 月交付数据。2024 年 10 月，理想汽车交付新车 51,443 辆，同比增长 27.3%。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿 元，同比增速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别为 85.3/142.4/237.2 亿元，同比 增速分别为-27.1%/67.0%/66.6%，EPS 分别为 4.02/6.71/11.18 元/股，3 年 CAGR 为 40.6%。 公司产品力提升，智能电动加速，销量兑现和盈利能力兑现。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月07日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理想汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35% [6][7]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.8 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 156% [6][7]. - The company expects Q4 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0% [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company delivered 153,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41% [7]. - The average revenue per vehicle in Q3 2024 was approximately 270,000 yuan, which is a decrease of 49,000 yuan year-on-year and 9,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points but an increase of 2.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.1 percentage points [8]. - The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio was 7.8%, while the R&D expense ratio was 6.0% for Q3 2024 [8]. Sales and Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts sales of new vehicles to be 510,000, 710,000, and 850,000 units for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for the same years are 146 billion yuan, 206.4 billion yuan, and 250.2 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.3, 0.9, and 0.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 105.56 and 113.10 HKD based on a PS ratio of 1.4 to 1.5 for 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" to the company, indicating a relative strength compared to the market performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 100.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.51 billion yuan, down 25.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 2.81 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but a significant increase of 155.2% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q3 sales were strong, with total sales of 153,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41%. The L6 model contributed significantly, with sales of 75,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 92%, accounting for 49.2% of total sales [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with the automotive business gross margin at 20.9%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2 percentage points. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 270,000 yuan, slightly down by 0.9 thousand yuan [3][4]. - R&D expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion yuan, with a rate of 6.0%, down 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 delivery volumes to be between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% to 29.0%. Projected revenue for Q4 is between 43.2 billion and 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% to 10.0% [3][4]. - The company has developed and operated 1,000 supercharging stations, leading the industry in the number of self-built high-speed charging stations, which supports the sales of high-end pure electric products [4][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 145.98 billion, 194.13 billion, and 215.65 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 7.52 billion, 12.60 billion, and 16.43 billion yuan for the same period [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 120 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of 97.1 HKD [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's third-quarter performance met expectations, with revenue of 429 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35%. The GAAP net profit was 28 billion RMB, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1% but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 155% [2][3]. - The strong sales performance, particularly of the L6 model, has driven revenue growth and improved profitability. The gross margin for the third quarter was 21.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2 percentage points [2][3]. - The company expects fourth-quarter delivery guidance of 160,000 to 170,000 units, with revenue guidance of 43.2 billion to 45.9 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company reported total revenue of 100.2 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase. The GAAP and non-GAAP net profits were 4.5 billion and 6.7 billion RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25% and 12% [2][4]. - The forecast for future sales revenue shows significant growth, with projected revenues of 120.3 billion RMB for FY2023, 152.3 billion RMB for FY2024, and 198.7 billion RMB for FY2025, reflecting growth rates of 166%, 27%, and 30% respectively [4][7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20% for the coming years, with net profit margins projected to improve gradually [4][7].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 11 05 年 月 日 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 成本管控优秀，毛利率超预期 理想业绩稳健，Q3 毛利率超出预期。公司 Q3 销量 15.3 万，同比/环比增长 45%/41%。尽管低价车型 L6 销量快速爬坡，但公司整体的单车 ASP 下降幅 度很小。Q3 收入 428.7 亿人民币，同比/环比增长 23.6%/35.3%。毛利率录 得 21.5%，环比提升 2.0pct；其中车辆毛利率 20.9%，环比提升 2.2pct，超 出预期，主要是由于成本下降，体现了公司优秀的成本管控能力。研发费用环 比明显减少，主要是新产品研发成本减少、员工薪酬减少。SG&A 环比增加主 要是由于 CEO 基于业绩的奖励、员工数量增加等。归母净利润录得 28 亿人民 币，同比持平，环比增长 155%。归母净利润率 6.6%，同比/环比分别1.6pct/+3.1pct。Non-GAAP 归母净利润同比/环比增长 11%/156%至 38.45 亿 人民币，non-GAAP 归母净利润率 9.0%，同比/环比分别-1.1pct/+4.2pct。 端到端+VLM ...

近一月换手（%） 0.99 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q2 财报点评：2024Q2 业绩环比增长，智驾持续加速（增持）*乘用车*戴 畅》——2024-09-02 2024Q3 交付量创历史新高。2024Q3，理想汽车交付 152,831 辆， 同/环比+45.4%/+40.8%。车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同/环比 +22.9%/+36.3%，车辆销售收入同比和环比的增加主要由于车辆交 付量增加，但部分被主要因不同产品组合导致的平均售价降低所抵 销。 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1 点评报告：2024Q1 销量业绩环比承压，新品上市静待反弹（增持）* 乘用车*戴畅》——2024-05-25 《理想汽车-W（02015）2023 年三季报点评报告： 盈利同环比增长，交付量再创新高（买入）*乘用 车*薛玉虎》——2023-11-12 《理想汽车-W（02015）点评报告：销量稳步提升， 双能战略全面发力（买入） ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车三季度财务数据点评： 规模效应提升毛利率，业绩加速兑现 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月04日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 10 月 31 日，理想汽车公布第三季度财务数据。理想汽车第三季度交付 15.3 万辆，同 比增长 45.4%，实现营业收入 428.7 亿元，同比增长 23.6%，实现净利润 28.2 亿元，gaap 净 利润 38.5 亿元。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿元，同比增 速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别为 85.3/142.4/237.2 亿元，同比增速分别为 -27.1%/67.0%/66.6%，EPS 分别为 4.02/6.71/11.18 元/股，3 年 CAGR 为 40.6%。公司产品力 提升，智能电动加速，销量兑现和盈利能力兑现。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 数据来源：公司公告、i ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 42.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 67.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% [2][3] - The vehicle sales revenue was RMB 41.32 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.48% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for Q3 was RMB 2.81 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 155.1% [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with a notable performance in the automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational efficiency, with a reduction in R&D and SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 42.87 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 41.32 billion [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.81 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 3.85 billion [2] - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [3] Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin was 21.5%, with automotive sales gross margin at 20.9% [3] - The report attributes the strong margin performance to controlled discounts and significant scale effects from increased sales volume [3] Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q3 were RMB 2.6 billion, and SG&A expenses were RMB 3.4 billion, showing improvements in expense ratios [3] - The report notes a strategic approach to managing expenses, including a slight reduction in R&D costs due to decreased design and development expenses [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards to RMB 7.8 billion, while estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards to RMB 10.3 billion and RMB 15.3 billion, respectively [4] - The report anticipates a P/E ratio of 24 for 2024, 18 for 2025, and 12 for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto [1][2] - The target price for Li Auto (LI.US) is raised to USD 30.8, representing a potential upside of 23% [1] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is increased to HKD 120.0, indicating a potential upside of 24% [1] Core Insights - Li Auto's vehicle delivery momentum is sustained, driven by the L6 model, with projected sales of 507,000 units in 2024 and 700,000 units in 2025, maintaining a leading position among new energy vehicle manufacturers [1][2] - The company's profitability significantly improved in Q3, with expectations for continued profit growth through 2025, positioning it as a leader in profitability among new energy vehicle companies [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of hybrid vehicles and capture additional market share in pure electric models by 2025 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 42.874 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year and a 35% increase quarter-over-quarter [9] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.225 billion, up 21% year-over-year and 49% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Operating profit increased by 47% year-over-year and 633% quarter-over-quarter, reaching RMB 3.433 billion [9] - Net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.814 billion, approximately flat year-over-year but up 155% from the previous quarter [9] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.5%, slightly down from 22.0% year-over-year but improved from 19.5% quarter-over-quarter [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 146.396 billion, with a growth rate of 18% [11] - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 30.431 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8% [11] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 12.534 billion, with a net margin of 6.3% [11] Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.5x for automotive sales and 17.0x for other revenues, leading to a target price of USD 30.8 for Li Auto [3][13] - The target price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17.4x for 2025 [3][13]