Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable volume and pricing in Q4 2024, reserving potential for 2025, with the pure electric platform possibly creating significant products [1][2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 145.8 billion, 169.2 billion, and 216.2 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18%, 16%, and 28% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period have been adjusted to 10.7 billion, 13.2 billion, and 17.8 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 5.1, 6.2, and 8.2 yuan [2] - The current stock price of 97.10 HKD corresponds to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.1, 0.9, and 0.7 for 2024-2026, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7, 12.1, and 9.0 [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 145.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [3] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.0% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin is expected to be 21% in 2024, with a net margin of 7.4% [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected at 17.2% for 2024, with EPS expected to be 5.06 yuan [3] - The P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 14.7, while the P/S ratio is projected at 1.1 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant improvements in profitability, with a focus on the recovery of gross margins and optimization of expense ratios. The company is expected to enter a new vehicle cycle in 2024-2025, maintaining a positive outlook [4][3]. - The company has shown strong sales performance, with Q3 deliveries reaching 153,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.17 billion, 19.36 billion, and 26.83 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.7, 11.8, and 8.5 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 173.48% compared to 2022. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 11.70 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 681.65% [1]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 41.32 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 21.5%, with a slight decline from previous quarters, while the automotive business gross margin was 20.9% [2]. Cost Management - R&D and SGA expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion and 3.36 billion RMB respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios compared to previous periods [2]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in unit costs, with the cost per vehicle dropping to 214,000 RMB [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q4 deliveries between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with revenue projections of 43.2 to 45.9 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.5% to 10% [3]. - The company is preparing for a new cycle of pure electric vehicles in 2025, with strong order stability and an extensive charging infrastructure already in place [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth with a total revenue of 42.87 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.3% [3]. - The automotive business revenue for Q3 2024 was approximately 41.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 22.9% and 36.3%, respectively [3]. - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.8% [3]. - The gross profit for the automotive business in Q3 2024 was 8.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.9%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2 percentage points [4]. - The company has a strong cash reserve, with net cash from operating activities amounting to 11 billion yuan in Q3 2024 and free cash flow of 9.1 billion yuan [6]. Revenue and Profitability - The report projects the company's revenue for 2024 to be between 123.85 billion yuan and 144.89 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 173.5% [9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 11.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant growth rate of 681.7% [9]. - The company anticipates vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, corresponding to a year-on-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0% [6]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 2.59 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in design and development costs [5]. - The company is advancing in smart driving technology, with recent updates enhancing its capabilities and positioning it among the industry leaders [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company operates 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers across 145 cities, indicating a robust distribution network [6]. - The report highlights the company's ability to leverage user insights and efficient organizational structure to innovate product offerings, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 120.34, indicating a potential upside of 12.0% from the current price of HKD 107.40 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed strong revenue growth of 23.6% year-on-year, reaching RMB 428.7 billion, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [1][3]. - The guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a slight increase in delivery volume to 160,000-170,000 vehicles, but revenue expectations suggest a continued decline in average selling price (ASP) to around RMB 260,000 [2][3]. - The company is facing short-term pressure due to the absence of new model launches, which may impact sales in Q4 [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 428.7 billion, with a gross margin of 20.9%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 28.1 billion in Q3 2024, significantly above market forecasts [1]. - For the full year 2023, revenue is projected to reach RMB 123.851 billion, with a net profit of RMB 11.704 billion, marking a substantial recovery from a net loss of RMB 2.012 billion in 2022 [6][9]. Sales and Production Insights - Q3 2024 vehicle sales reached 153,000 units, a 40.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, supported by the L6 model's strong performance [1][7]. - The ASP for Q3 2024 was RMB 274,000, reflecting a decrease due to the higher sales proportion of the lower-priced L6 model [1][2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is expected to face increased competition in the mid-to-large SUV market, particularly with the anticipated launch of new models from competitors [2][3]. - The report highlights the potential for further price reductions in Q4 to maintain competitiveness, especially with the L6 model's growing market share [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 131.42 [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 42.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35%. GAAP net profit was RMB 2.8 billion, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year but a significant increase of 155% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company achieved a quarterly vehicle delivery of 150,000 units, with a month average sales surpassing 50,000 for the first time, reflecting a 41% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The rapid expansion of the company's charging network, with 1,000 supercharging stations and over 4,500 charging piles, is expected to enhance user experience and support the launch of pure electric vehicles in 2025 [3]. - The OTA 6.4 upgrade enhances driving capabilities in congested and complex road conditions, utilizing a deep learning model based on 4 million clips of data [4]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 141.9 billion, RMB 216.9 billion, and RMB 275.2 billion, respectively. GAAP net profits are expected to be RMB 6.2 billion, RMB 12.7 billion, and RMB 18.4 billion for the same period [6][29]. - The report compares the company with peers like Geely and BYD, suggesting a valuation premium of 2x PE over the average 2025E PE of 14x, adjusting the target price to HKD 131.42 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high operating profit in Q3, with significant improvements in cash flow and cost management [5][6]. - The increase in L6 model sales has led to a decline in average revenue per vehicle, but gross margin has improved [5][6]. - The company has provided conservative guidance for Q4 deliveries and revenue, indicating a strategic approach to avoid demand overextension into the next year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 42.87 billion yuan, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.6% and year-on-year growth of 35.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.81 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 155.2% [5]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 was 11 billion yuan, and cash reserves stood at 106.5 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024 [5]. Sales and Delivery Insights - The company delivered 153,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4% [5]. - The average revenue per vehicle decreased to 270,000 yuan, down 0.9 thousand yuan from the previous quarter [5]. - The gross margin for vehicle sales in Q3 was 20.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [5][6]. Cost Management and Profitability - R&D expenses in Q3 were 2.59 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, contributing to improved operating profit of 3.43 billion yuan [6]. - The company achieved a single-vehicle operating profit of 22,000 yuan, an increase of 18,000 yuan from the previous quarter [6]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles, with revenue guidance of 43.2 billion to 45.9 billion yuan [5][7]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's L series models, with potential for further enhancements in product capabilities [7].

2024 年 11 月 01 日 汽车 理想汽车-W(2015.HK) 三季度营业利润创新高，L系列改进空间仍大 推荐(维持) 事项: 骰价: 107.4 元 ( 港币 ) | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------------| | | | | 主要教据 | | | 行业 | 汽车 | | 公司网址 | ir lixlang.com | | 大殷东/持殷 | | | 实际控制人 | | | 总殷本(百万股) | | | 流通 A 殷(百万股) | | | 流通 B/H 殷(百万胶) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 2089.27 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | | | 每股净资产(元) | | | 资产负债率(%) | 31.38 | | | 56.70 | 行情走势图 2024-03-14 2024-07-26 证券分析师 王德安 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn 王曝海 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523080001 BVG944 WANGGENHAI964@ning ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 142.58 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong Q3 2024 results with revenue of CNY 42.9 billion, exceeding previous guidance, representing a year-on-year increase of 24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35%. Net profit reached CNY 2.8 billion, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 156% [1][2]. - The automotive business generated revenue of CNY 41.3 billion in Q3 2024, up 23% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter, with a delivery volume of 153,000 vehicles, marking a 45% year-on-year increase and a 41% quarter-on-quarter increase [1][2]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of CNY 106.5 billion as of the end of Q3 2024, with a significant improvement in cash flow, reporting a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 11 billion, up CNY 11.4 billion from the previous quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 operating profit reached CNY 3.4 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase and a 634% quarter-on-quarter increase, marking a historical high. The profit per vehicle was CNY 18,000, showing a year-on-year decrease of CNY 800 and a quarter-on-quarter increase of CNY 800 [3]. - The automotive business gross margin was 20.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to increased sales volume and a higher proportion of the AD MAX version [2]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were CNY 2.6 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year and 14.6% quarter-on-quarter, with an R&D expense ratio of 6.0%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Sales and Management Expenses - Sales, general, and administrative expenses totaled CNY 3.4 billion, up 32% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter, with a sales expense ratio of 7.8%, down 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - For Q4 2024, the company expects to deliver between 160,000 to 170,000 vehicles, generating revenue of CNY 43.2 billion to CNY 45.9 billion. The total expected deliveries for the year are between 502,000 to 512,000 vehicles, with total revenue projected at CNY 143.4 billion to CNY 146.1 billion [5][8].

Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2024, Li Auto reported total revenue of RMB 42.9 billion (USD 6.1 billion), an increase of 23.6% compared to RMB 34.7 billion in the third quarter of 2023[10]. - Vehicle sales revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 41.3 billion (USD 5.9 billion), up 22.9% from RMB 33.6 billion in the same quarter of 2023[10]. - Gross profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 9.2 billion (USD 1.3 billion), a 20.7% increase from RMB 7.6 billion in the third quarter of 2023[10]. - Operating profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion (USD 489.2 million), a significant increase of 46.7% compared to RMB 2.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023[11]. - Net profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 2.8 billion (USD 401.9 million), a slight increase of 0.3% from RMB 2.8 billion in the same quarter of 2023[11]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was RMB 11 billion (USD 1.6 billion), down from RMB 14.5 billion in Q3 2023[12]. - Free cash flow for Q3 2024 was RMB 9.1 billion (USD 1.3 billion), compared to RMB 13.2 billion in Q3 2023 and a negative RMB 1.9 billion in Q2 2024[12]. - Operating expenses for Q3 2024 were RMB 5.8 billion ($825.4 million), a 9.2% increase from RMB 5.3 billion in Q3 2023[25]. - Research and development expenses for Q3 2024 were RMB 2.6 billion ($368.6 million), an 8.2% decrease from RMB 2.8 billion in Q3 2023[25]. Vehicle Deliveries and Sales - Vehicle deliveries reached 152,831 units in the third quarter of 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 45.4%[8]. - Vehicle sales revenue reached RMB 41.3 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 22.9% year-over-year increase and a 36.3% quarter-over-quarter increase[13]. - Cumulative vehicle deliveries surpassed 1 million units as of October 18, 2024, making the company the first Chinese new energy vehicle brand to reach this milestone[16]. - The company expects vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of 21.4% to 29.0%[31]. Market Presence and Infrastructure - As of September 30, 2024, Li Auto operated 479 retail centers across 145 cities and 436 after-sales service centers in 221 cities[9]. - The company has deployed 894 Li Auto Supercharging stations equipped with 4,286 charging piles[9]. - The company is a leader in the Chinese new energy vehicle market, focusing on luxury smart electric vehicles[37]. - The company has successfully commercialized range-extended electric vehicles while developing a pure electric platform[37]. - Current vehicle models include the flagship MPV Li Xiang MEGA and several SUVs, with plans to expand the product line to broaden the user base[37]. Corporate Governance and Ratings - The company appointed Professor Xiao Xing as the new chairman of the audit committee on October 31, 2024[5]. - The company received the highest "AAA" ESG rating from MSCI ESG Research for the second consecutive year, recognizing its performance in governance and sustainable development[19]. Future Outlook - Total revenue for Q4 2024 is projected to be between RMB 43.2 billion ($6.2 billion) and RMB 45.9 billion ($6.5 billion), reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.5% to 10.0%[31]. - The company aims to create value for users through technology and innovation in electric vehicle solutions[37]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and investing in new product development to drive future growth[40]. - Forward-looking statements are made in accordance with the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, highlighting inherent risks and uncertainties[39]. Non-GAAP Financial Metrics - The company utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics to assess operational performance and inform financial and operational decisions[34]. - Non-GAAP financial metrics include sales cost, R&D expenses, operating profit, and net profit attributable to common shareholders, among others[34]. - The company emphasizes the importance of considering GAAP financial data alongside non-GAAP metrics for a comprehensive evaluation of performance[35].

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：9 月销量超 5.3 万辆创新高，单 周销量首次同时超过 BBA | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 理想 2024 年 9 月销量 5.4 万辆，同比增长 48.9% ，环比增长 11.6% 。理想汽车产品优势和品 | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 2024-10-13 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 10 ...