证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 9 月销量稳增长，端到端+VLM 加速上车 2024 年 10 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45287 | 123851 | 146322 | 191790 | 250650 | | 同比 (%) | 67.67 | 173.48 | 18.14 | 31.07 | 30.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (2012) | 11704 | 7528 | 12146 | 17567 | | 同比 (%) | (525.97) | 681.65 | (35.68) | 61.35 | 44.62 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto-W (02015) [5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved record monthly deliveries of 53,709 vehicles in September 2024, a 48.9% YoY increase [2][7] - Q3 2024 cumulative deliveries reached 153,000 vehicles, a 45.4% YoY increase, hitting the upper end of sales expectations [2][7] - Market share in the premium NEV segment (above RMB 200,000) exceeded 17% and is expected to continue in Q4 2024 [2][7] - The company's product strength is improving, with stable order growth for the L series and MEGA models [2][7] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are advancing, with city NOA mileage penetration exceeding 50% among test users [7] - The company's ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with 479 retail centers, 436 service centers, and 894 supercharging stations as of September 2024 [7] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 147.3 billion in 2024 to RMB 280.0 billion in 2026, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 8.53 billion in 2024 to RMB 23.72 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 4.02 in 2024 to RMB 11.18 in 2026 [7] - The company's ROE is projected to improve from 12.4% in 2024 to 22.3% in 2026 [10] Operational Highlights - Li Auto's retail network covers 145 cities with 479 retail centers as of September 2024 [7] - The company has deployed 4,286 charging piles across 894 supercharging stations [7] - OTA 6.2 version enhanced Pro version's highway NOA capability and Max version's parking and AEB functions [7] Industry Position - Li Auto maintains a leading position in the premium NEV market with over 17% market share in the RMB 200,000+ segment [7] - The company's intelligent driving capabilities are considered advanced, with significant improvements in AEB and AES functions [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - Sales are gradually recovering, with a gross margin remaining robust. In Q2 2024, the company sold approximately 108,600 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. Total revenue reached 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% year-on-year and 23.6% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for vehicles in Q2 was 18.7%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB [4][5] - The company is accelerating the iteration of smart driving technology, launching a new generation of intelligent driving experience based on "end-to-end + VLM" [4] - The company is actively expanding its sales service and charging network, with 497 retail centers and 421 after-sales service centers as of June 30, 2024 [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, and 285.2 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 36.1%, and 45.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 99.75 - Total shares (million): 2,122 - Net assets (million RMB): 62,884 - Total assets (million RMB): 145,110 - Net asset per share (RMB): 29.63 [2] Financial Performance - Q2 2024 sales: 108,600 units, up 25.5% YoY - Q2 2024 total revenue: 31.7 billion RMB, up 10.6% YoY, 23.6% QoQ - Q2 2024 net profit: 1.1 billion RMB, non-GAAP net profit: 1.5 billion RMB - Q3 2024 sales guidance: 145,000 to 155,000 units, YoY growth of 38.0% to 47.5% [4] Future Outlook - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 143.7 billion, 195.6 billion, 285.2 billion RMB - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 7.1 billion, 9.8 billion, 17.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue: 16.0%, 36.1%, 45.8% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, with a target price of HKD 96.70, based on a 1.3x PS multiple for 2024 [3] Core Views - Li Auto is positioned to capture market share in the smart car segment priced above RMB 250,000, leveraging its "refrigerator, OLED TV, and large sofa" strategy [2] - The company has achieved early profitability and mass delivery, giving it a first-mover advantage in the era of large models [2] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive future growth, with its NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system being a key differentiator [34] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Li Auto's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 144.0 billion in 2024E to RMB 246.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21% [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024E to RMB 17.8 billion in 2026E, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [2] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20-21% over the next three years, with a return on equity (ROE) improving to 18.3% by 2026E [2] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's market share in the domestic SUV market has been steadily increasing, reaching 5.7% in August 2024, with strong performance in the 20-30万元 price segment [19] - The company faces competition from brands like Tesla, BYD, and NIO, but its focus on family-oriented SUVs has allowed it to carve out a niche [21] - Li Auto's L6 model has quickly gained traction in the 20-30万元 SUV segment, capturing 11.2% market share within two months of its launch [23] Intelligent Driving and Technology - Li Auto's NOA system has been widely adopted, with a 98% installation rate across its vehicle lineup, and cumulative autonomous driving mileage reaching 19 billion kilometers by June 2024 [34] - The company is developing a next-generation autonomous driving system based on an "end-to-end + VLM" architecture, which is expected to enhance its technological edge [34] - Li Auto's AI capabilities, including its Mind GPT model, are integrated into its smart cockpit, providing advanced voice and visual interaction features [37] Product Strategy and Sales - Li Auto follows a "big single product" strategy, with only five models in its lineup, all sharing a unified design language and family-oriented positioning [15] - The company's L6 model has been a standout performer, accounting for 52% of total sales in August 2024, with 24,897 units sold [11] - Li Auto's higher-end models, such as the L7, L8, and L9, have seen strong demand for their advanced intelligent driving features, with over 50% of sales coming from models equipped with AD Max [43] Industry Trends and Competitive Dynamics - The 20-50万元 SUV market remains highly competitive, with Li Auto and AITO (Huawei's automotive brand) gaining market share at the expense of traditional players like Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz [21] - Tesla continues to lead in technological innovation, particularly in autonomous driving, but Li Auto is making significant strides in catching up, especially in the Chinese market [30] - The adoption of intelligent driving features is becoming a key differentiator in the market, with Li Auto well-positioned to benefit from this trend [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Auto, with a target price of HKD 96.70, based on a 1.3x PS multiple for 2024 [3] Core Views - Li Auto is positioned to capture market share in the smart car segment priced above RMB 250,000, leveraging its "refrigerator, OLED TV, and large sofa" strategy [2] - The company has achieved early profitability and mass delivery, giving it a first-mover advantage in the era of large models [2] - Li Auto's intelligent driving capabilities are expected to drive future growth, with its NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system being a key differentiator [34][40] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Li Auto's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 144.0 billion in 2024E to RMB 246.8 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 21% [2][3] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 6.8 billion in 2024E to RMB 17.8 billion in 2026E, reflecting a strong recovery from previous losses [2][3] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 20-21% from 2024E to 2026E, indicating improved cost control [2] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Li Auto's market share in the 20-30万元 SUV segment has grown significantly, reaching 11.2% in August 2024, driven by the launch of the L6 model [19][23] - In the 30-40万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L7 and L8 models have faced competition from Huawei's AITO M7, leading to a slight decline in market share [24] - In the 40-50万元 SUV segment, Li Auto's L9 model maintains a strong position, with a market share of 13.7%-20.6% in 2024 [26] Intelligent Driving and Technology - Li Auto's NOA system has been fully rolled out to AD Max users as of July 2024, with cumulative autonomous driving mileage reaching 1.9 billion kilometers by June 2024 [34][40] - The company is developing a next-generation autonomous driving system based on an "end-to-end + VLM" architecture, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [34][41] - Li Auto's intelligent cockpit, powered by the Qualcomm 8295P chip and its proprietary Mind GPT AI model, has been recognized for its advanced capabilities [42] Product Strategy and Sales - Li Auto's product lineup focuses on large SUVs with a family-oriented design, offering features like in-car refrigerators, massage seats, and entertainment screens [14] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has become a best-seller, accounting for 52% of total sales in August 2024 [11][12] - The company's high-end AD Max models, equipped with advanced intelligent driving features, have seen strong demand, with over 50% of L7, L8, and L9 sales being AD Max variants [43] R&D and Cost Efficiency - Li Auto's R&D expenses per vehicle in 2023 were RMB 28,000, significantly lower than NIO's RMB 84,000, reflecting a more cost-efficient approach [15][16] - The company's R&D expense ratio was 8.8% in 2023, compared to NIO's 27.3%, indicating a leaner R&D structure [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company has launched a "dual-energy strategy" to enhance its product matrix and expand its market presence, focusing on family-oriented vehicles [16][53]. - The sales volume has shown significant growth, with July 2024 deliveries reaching 51,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.4% [2]. - The company aims to establish a comprehensive product lineup by 2025, including one flagship model, five range-extended models, and five high-voltage pure electric models [51]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company focuses on family vehicles, aiming to create a "mobile home" and enhance user happiness [16]. - The product matrix has been enriched with models like the L series and the newly launched MEGA, targeting various family needs [22][50]. 2. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 44.7% in the first eight months of 2024, with significant growth in plug-in hybrid and range-extended models [34]. - The average retail price of passenger cars has increased from 153,000 yuan in 2020 to 179,000 yuan in 2024, indicating a trend towards higher-end models [36]. 3. Sales Performance - The company achieved a total delivery of 239,981 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.5% [2]. - The average sales per store reached 265 million yuan in 2023, significantly higher than in 2022, reflecting improved operational efficiency [2][24]. 4. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenues of 57.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [32]. - The forecast for revenues from 2024 to 2026 is 167.98 billion, 226.19 billion, and 274.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.25 billion, 16.41 billion, and 23.53 billion yuan [68]. 5. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its charging network, aiming to establish over 2,000 supercharging stations by 2024 [55]. - The introduction of advanced driving technologies, such as the "no-map" NOA feature, is expected to improve user experience and operational efficiency [56][58]. 6. Competitive Landscape - The market share of domestic brands reached 51% in 2024, with new forces like the company gaining traction among consumers [40]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing acceptance of domestic brands and the increasing demand for family-oriented vehicles [45].

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%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：8 月连续四周获中国市场新势力 品牌销量第一，9 月有望交付破 5 万辆 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 理想 2024 年 8 月销量 4.8 万辆，同比增长 37.8% ，环比下降 5.6% 。理想汽车产品优势和品牌 | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车点评：2] 8 月连续四周获中国市场新势力 品牌销量第一 ...

理想汽車 ( 於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的 有限責任公司 ) 股份代號 : 2015 2024 中期報告 肥糖 目錄 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------| | | | | 公司資料 | 2 | | 財務表現摘要 | 3 | | 業務回顧及前景 | 5 | | 管理層討論及分析 | 9 | | 企業管治 | 14 | | 其他資料 | 19 | | 中期財務資料審閱報告 | 35 | | 未經審計簡明合併財務報表及附註 | 36 | | 釋義 | 93 | 2024中期報告 2 公司資料 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 執行董事 | 香港主要營業地點 | | 李想先生 （董事長、首席執行官兼創始人） | ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 2024 年 8 月销量点评： 销量市占率提升，功能升级 NPS 提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 8 月交付数据。2024 年 8 月，理想汽车交付新车 48,122 辆，同比增长 37.8%。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月05日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理想汽车 2024 年 8 月销量点评： 销量市占率提升，功能升级 NPS 提升 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | 行 业： 投资评级： | 汽车/乘用车 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 74.05 港元 | | 基本数据 | ...