证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 8 月销量同比+37.8%，OTA 6.2 再升级 2024 年 09 月 05 日 买入（维持） the station of | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45287 | 123851 | 146322 | 191790 | 250650 | | 同比 (%) | 67.67 | 173.48 | 18.14 | 31.07 | 30.69 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (2012) | 11704 | 7528 | 12146 | 17567 | | 同比 (%) | (525.97) | 681.65 | (35.68) | 61.35 | 44.62 | | E ...

2024-09-02 公司点评 买入/维持 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） 目标价： 昨收盘：75.25 汽车行业 组织升级成功：从 L6 到端到端+VLM 总股本/流通(亿股) 21.22/17.66 总市值/流通(亿元) 1597/1329 12 个月最高/最低(元) 182.90/68.65 组 织 升 级 获 得 初 步 的 商 业 成 功 。 Q2 收 入 317 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +10.6%/+23.6%，其中汽车销售收入 303 亿元，同环比分别+8.4%/+25.0%。 Q2 汽车毛利率 18.7%，同环比分别-2.3/-0.6pct，主要受降价、权益和 L6 占比提升影响。公司 Q2 研发支出 30 亿元，同环比分别+24.8%/-0.7%， 智驾技术研发，研发费率 9.6%，同环比分别+1.1/-2.3pct；SG&A 支出 28 亿元，同环比分别+21.9%/-5.5%，主要用于销售和服务网络拓展（中心店 及超充站），SG&A 费率 8.9%，同环比分别+0.8/-2.7pct。随着理想 L6 销量带动规模效应凸显，配合各项降本增效措施，公司经营业绩将在下半 年进一步提升 ...

理想汽车（LI.O/2015.HK） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|------------------------------|--------------------------|---------|-------------------------------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------------------------------| | | | 买入 | | | | | | | 2024 年 9 月 3 日 | | | 智 ...

2024 年 09 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------|-------|--------------| | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2024/08/30 | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | 2024/08/30 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 78.85 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | 68.65-182.90 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 157,053.13 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 157,053.13 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 199,179.62 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 199,179.62 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | | | 1,869.45 | | 近一月换手（ | %） | | 0.56 | 表现 1M 3M 12M 2024Q2 营收同环比增长 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 理想汽车-W（2015）公司信息点评 2024 年 08 月 31 日 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 24Q2 交付量同环比提升，智能驾驶升级 有望带动 ASP 向上 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 股票数据 8[T月a3b0le日_收S盘to价ck(港In元fo)] 78.85 52 周股价波动(港元） 68.65-182.90 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 2122/1766 总市值/流通市值(百万港元) 167321/139266 相关研究 [《Ta无b图leN_ROAep即o将rtI推nf送o，] 智驾系统采用端到端 +VLM》2024.07.11 《24Q1 净利润承压，Q2 新车交付量有望企 稳回升》2024.06.01 理想汽车发布截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止季度的为经审计财务业绩（以下简称 "2024 年二季度业绩公告"）和截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日止六个月 ...

公 司 研 究 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 2024 年 08 月 30 日 增程平台力争稳中有升，跟踪纯电平台改良进展 ——港股公司信息更新报告 股价走势图 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 理想汽车-W 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《增程矩阵力求企稳回升，纯电战略 有待整装再出发—港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.5.21 《新车周期启动、组织管理优秀驱动 业绩高成长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.2.27 《Mega 强化品牌力，待格局明朗驱动 单车利润企稳—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2023.11.15 一年最高最低(港元) 182.90/68.650 总市值(亿港元) 1,552.26 流通市值(亿港元) 1,457.00 总股本(亿股) 21.22 流通港股(亿股) 19.92 近 3 个月换手率(%) 32.73 增程平台力争稳中有升，跟踪纯电改良进展以提升下一款爆品确定性 基于公司车型产品结构低于我们此前预期，将公司 2024-2026 年收入预测由 1350/1682/2141 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (02015 HK) with a target price of HKD 88 and a target market cap of RMB 1712 billion, corresponding to 14x 2025 P/E [2] Core Views - Li Auto demonstrated resilience in Q2 2024 with 109k units sold, up 25% YoY and 35% QoQ, despite intense competition [1] - Q2 revenue reached RMB 31 68 billion, up 11% YoY, with a gross margin of 19 5% (vehicle gross margin at 18 7%), exceeding expectations [1] - Q2 GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1 1 billion, down 52% YoY but up 86% QoQ, with a net margin of 3 5% [1] - The company expects Q3 2024 deliveries of 145-155k units, up 38 0%-47 5% YoY, and revenue of RMB 39 4-42 2 billion, up 13 7%-21 6% YoY [1] - Li Auto is rapidly advancing its autonomous driving capabilities, with OTA6 0 launched in July 2024, achieving a 99% penetration rate for smart driving features and over 1 11 billion km of NOA cumulative mileage [1] Business Outlook - Li Auto plans to expand its charging network to 2000+ supercharging stations and 10000+ supercharging piles by the end of 2024 [2] - The company expects to launch its first pure electric vehicle (excluding MEGA) in the first half of 2025, supported by improved infrastructure [2] - The proportion of car city stores increased to 31% by June 2024, up from 24% at the end of 2023, with a target to reach nearly 50% by year-end [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Li Auto's 2024-2026 sales at 500k, 630k, and 820k units, with total revenue of RMB 143 billion, RMB 169 2 billion, and RMB 220 3 billion, respectively [2] - GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 7 7 billion, RMB 10 4 billion, and RMB 13 9 billion for 2024-2026, with net margins of 5 4%, 6 2%, and 6 3% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach RMB 10 1 billion, RMB 12 2 billion, and RMB 16 billion for 2024-2026, with net margins of 7 1%, 7 2%, and 7 3% [2] Operational Highlights - Li Auto's Q2 2024 vehicle ASP decreased to around RMB 280k due to product mix changes [1] - The company's R&D and SG&A expense ratios narrowed QoQ due to economies of scale, but increased YoY due to investments in product expansion and technology [1] - City NOA daily active users increased nearly 8x, and average city NOA mileage per vehicle increased nearly 3x [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 573.12 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.81%, but net profit decreased by 47.50% to 16.92 billion yuan [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 316.78 billion yuan, up 10.56% year-on-year and 23.58% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 11.00 billion yuan, down 52.05% year-on-year but up 85.55% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for the automotive sales business in H1 2024 was 19.01%, down 1.53 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 18.75%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year and 0.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's Q2 vehicle delivery volume was 108,600 units, with the L6 model accounting for 36% of deliveries, driving the average vehicle price down to 279,200 yuan, a decrease of 44,000 yuan year-on-year [1] - The company expects Q3 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 145,000 and 155,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% to 47.5%, with revenue projected to be between 394 billion and 422 billion yuan, up 13.7% to 21.6% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's R&D expenses in H1 2024 were 6.076 billion yuan, up 42.04% year-on-year, with the R&D expense ratio increasing by 1.58 percentage points to 10.60% [1] - Sales, general, and administrative expenses in H1 2024 were 5.793 billion yuan, up 46.48% year-on-year, with the expense ratio increasing by 1.77 percentage points to 10.11% [1] - The company reduced its R&D personnel by 20% to 5,373 and general and administrative personnel by 20% to 2,384 by the end of June 2024, leading to a decrease in Q2 R&D expenses by 0.70% quarter-on-quarter and a reduction in the R&D expense ratio by 2.34 percentage points to 9.56% [1] - The company's operating cash flow in H1 2024 was -3.771 billion yuan, but improved significantly in Q2 to -429 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter narrowing [1] - The company's investment cash flow in H1 2024 was -6.937 billion yuan, with Q2 investment cash flow at -3.839 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.92% [1] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling 80.789 billion yuan, providing ample support for continued investment [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.51279 trillion yuan, 2.21679 trillion yuan, and 2.89411 trillion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7.743 billion yuan, 15.245 billion yuan, and 22.317 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 3.65 yuan, 7.18 yuan, and 10.52 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The PE ratio is expected to be 22.21x, 11.28x, and 7.71x in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]

理想汽车-W(2015.HK) 二季度费用优化显著，看好下半年利润释放 推荐（维持） 事项： 股价：81.05 元（港币） | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------| | | | | 行业 | 汽车 | | 公司网址 | ir.lixiang.com | | 大股东 / 持股 | Amp Lee Ltd/16.77% | | 实际控制人 | 李想 | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 2122.02 | | 流通 A 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 流通 B/H 股 ( 百万股 ) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 1569.89 | | 流通 A 股市值 ( 亿元 ) | | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 29.63 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 56.37 | | 行情走势图 | | | --- | --- | |--------|---------------------------------| | | | | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 S1060511010006 | 公司发布 2024 年二季度业绩报告，2 ...

2 季度业绩大致符合预期，但指引保守 交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 2024 年 8 月 29 日 理想汽车 (2015 HK) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 81.05 港元 120.34 +48.5% 2024 年 2 季度业绩大致符合预期。2 季度理想汽车营收 316.8 亿元人民币 （下同），略高于市场/我们预期，同比增长 10.6%，环比增长 23.6%。销 量在 L6 上量的支持下环比增长 35.1%至 10.9 万辆。2 季度单车均价 27.9 万 元，环比减少 2.2 万元，主要是较低价的 L6 上量 。2 季度汽车毛利率环比 微跌0.6个百分点至 18.7%，综合毛利率由1季度的20.6%下跌至19.5%。2 季度研发/SG&A 费用环比分别下跌 0.7%/5.5%，占收入比例从 1 季度的 11.9%/11.6%下跌至 9.6%/8.9%，反映了成本控制和人员优化的成果。2 季 度净利润11亿元，符合市场/我们预期。2 季度现金和等价物达973亿元， 自由现金流为-19 亿元，较 1 季度-51 亿元环比收窄。 3 季度指引单价继续下滑：公司指引 3 季度交付量为 14.5-15.5 万 ...