证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） 7 月销量亮眼，无图 NOA 全量推送 2024 年 08 月 06 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------|--------|---------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 45287 | 123851 | 151307 | 216885 | 273203 | | 同比(%) | 67.67 | 173.48 | 22.17 | 43.34 | 25.97 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (2012) | 11704 | 8298 | 13032 | 18575 | | 同比(%) | (525.97) | 681.65 | (29.10) | 57.05 | 42.53 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (0.95) | 5 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 Engz 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：7 月交付创历史新高，L6 订单火 热月销持续突破 2 万辆 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 理想 2024 年 7 月销量 5.1 万辆，同比增长 49.4%，环比增长 6.8%。理想汽车产品优势和品牌 设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理想 汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 %% %% research.95579.com 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 1 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title 理想汽车点评：2] 7 月交付创历史新高，L6 订单 火热月销持续突破 2 万辆 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想汽车 2024 年 7 月销量 5.1 万辆，同比增长 49.4%，环比增长 6.8%。 事件评论 理想 2024 年 7 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 7 月销量点评： 销量创新高，智能电动战略持续加速 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月03日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 8 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 7 月交付数据。2024 年 7 月，理想汽车交付新车 51,000 辆，同比增长 49.4%，创单月交付量的历史新高。理想汽车 L6 上市后交付能力稳步向 上。L6 实现月交付量连续突破两万，已成为 20-30 万价格带的又一爆款产品。受益于数据规 模和算力规模的领先，理想智能驾驶功能持续加速。截止 2024 年 7 月 28 日，已投入使用的 700 座理想超充站，其中高速超充站 488 座，城市理想超充站 212 座，智能电动战略持续加 速。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月03日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理想汽车 7 月销量点评： 销量创新高，智能电动战略持续加速 事件： | - ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想洗车=W (02015) 理想汽车７月销量点评： 销量创新高，智能电动战略持续办速 诗券必闻读核李某页的支委声明 2024年08月03日 研究报告 | 报告委总 2024 年 8 月 1 日，旺总汽车公布 2024 年 7 月文行數據。2024 年 7 月，旺总汽车文行新车 51,000 特，同比增长 49.4%，创率月文符圣的历文新闻，理想汽车 L6 上市后文符能力稳步向 上。L6 实现月文件圣选块突破两方，包点为 20-30 万价格中的文一场旅产品。交互手载提现 核种异力规模的领先，是想有能写默功能将狭杂迹。 敘上 2024 年 7 月 28 日，它被入使用的 700 康冠想起无站，美中新途地无站 488 度，妖奇戏想起无站 212 度，有能也被杀夺将埃尔 式 | 分析师及联系人 态会 SAC: $0590523110004 靖秀必闻读核李永真的支委声明 1 / 5 港宸公司点环 2024年08月03日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理想汽车 7 月销量点评： 销量创新高，智能电动战略持续办速 事件： tt地汽车/东 月 후 赵京评述：买入（效材） 3 2 74.40 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix that includes both extended-range and pure electric vehicles, catering to different segments of family car needs [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x respectively, based on the closing price on July 19, 2024 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant fluctuations over the past months, with a 1-month absolute increase of 11.17%, but a 2-month decrease of 17.52% and a 3-month decrease of 31.10% [2] - Relative performance shows a 1-month increase of 11.94%, but a 2-month decrease of 8.44% and a 3-month decrease of 39.60% [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on the family luxury market, with a product lineup that includes the L9, L8, L7, and L6 models, each targeting different segments of the family car market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and deliveries exceeding 20,000 units in June 2024 [5] - The company is also developing its pure electric vehicle lineup, with plans to expand its charging network to over 2,000 supercharging stations and 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [5] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 20.08% in 2024, 20.48% in 2025, and 20.88% in 2026 [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments and support long-term growth [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR (Objectives and Key Results) to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [39] Competitive Positioning - The company's L-series models, particularly the L9, L8, and L7, have maintained leading positions in their respective market segments, with the L9 being the best-selling large SUV in 2023 [16] - The company's focus on family-oriented features, such as intelligent driving, intelligent space, and efficient range, has strengthened its brand loyalty and market position [4] Industry Trends - The Chinese MPV market has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 15.9% in 2023, and the average price of MPVs rising from 157,000 yuan in 2018 to 272,000 yuan in 2024 [26] - The "new family car market" in China is expected to enter a rapid development phase from 2024 to 2026, with married family users remaining the main consumer group, accounting for over 65% of the market [34]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix gradually improving through both extended-range and high-voltage pure electric vehicle offerings [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1396.1 billion, 1896.7 billion, and 2423.0 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.35 billion, 12.13 billion, and 18.29 billion [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x, respectively [5] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility with a 1-month absolute gain of 11.17%, a 2-month loss of 17.52%, and a 3-month loss of 31.10% [2] - Relative gains over the same periods were 11.94%, -8.44%, and -39.60%, respectively [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on family users, with products like the L9, L8, L7, and L6 catering to different segments of the family market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and 20,000 deliveries in June 2024 [5] - The company is adjusting its pure electric vehicle strategy, with plans to improve the charging network and focus on user value and operational efficiency [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a full-year GAAP net profit, with a delivery volume of 376,000 vehicles, making it the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to exceed 300,000 annual deliveries [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1238.51 billion, a 173.48% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 22.20%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The company's SG&A and R&D expense ratios were 7.89% and 8.55%, respectively, showing significant optimization compared to peers [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [40] Industry Context - The Chinese MPV market saw a recovery in 2023, with retail sales reaching 1.093 million units, a 15.9% year-over-year increase [27] - The average price of MPVs has risen from 157,000 yuan in January 2018 to 272,000 yuan in May 2024, indicating a shift towards higher-end models [27] - The company is well-positioned in the family vehicle market, with a 91.9% penetration rate among family users in 2023 [34]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 理想汽车-W(2015)公司跟踪报告 2024 年 07 月 11 日 股票数据 [《Ta24bQle1_净R利ep润o承rtI压nf,o]Q2 新车交付量有望企 《23Q2 量利齐升,智能电动赋能成长》 | | | |--------------------------------------|---------------| | 7[T月a1b0le日_收S盘to价c(kI港n币fo)] | 77.10 | | 52 周股价波动(港币) | 68.65-185.50 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 2122/0 | | 总市值/流通市值(百万港币) | 163608/136175 | | 相关研究 | | | 稳回升》2024.06.01 | | 2023.08.15 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M [Table_AuthorInfo] | | | | |-------------|------|-------| | 绝对涨幅(%) | -0.4 | -32.6 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 134.73 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company announced an OTA upgrade to version 6.0, which includes the full rollout of the no-map NOA feature for all AD Max users in July [1]. - Sales forecasts for the company are projected at 490,000, 790,000, and 1,040,000 units for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 141.9 billion, RMB 216.9 billion, and RMB 275.2 billion [1]. - The report compares the company with peers such as Tesla, Geely, and BYD, noting an adjusted target price based on a 20x PE for 2025, which is at a discount compared to the average 28x PE of comparable companies [1][8]. Summary by Sections OTA Upgrade and Features - The no-map NOA feature can operate in urban, suburban, and secondary roads, achieving over 99% user adoption since its launch [2]. - The upgrade enhances the vehicle's perception and control capabilities, allowing for smoother navigation and more decisive overtaking maneuvers [2]. Safety Enhancements - The OTA upgrade improves active safety features, including automatic emergency steering (AES) and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB), significantly reducing accident risks [3]. - The company reports that its systems have helped avoid 360,000 driving incidents, with an AEB false trigger rate of less than once every 300,000 kilometers [3]. Intelligent Driving Models - The introduction of end-to-end (E2E) and visual language models (VLM) enhances the vehicle's understanding of complex environments and improves driving efficiency [4]. - The VLM model has been deployed on vehicle chips, optimizing reasoning performance by 13 times, which significantly enhances navigation and traffic rule comprehension [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are set to increase from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 275.2 billion by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 67.67% in 2022 and 173.48% in 2023 [7][12]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 2.03 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 18.86 billion by 2026, with EPS improving from -0.95 to 8.89 over the same period [7][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Hong Kong and US stocks of the company, with a target price of 106.55 HKD per share and 27.23 USD per ADS respectively [4]. Core Insights - The company has significant potential for profit growth in the mid to long term, particularly in the market for passenger vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB, which accounts for approximately 84% of the industry's steady-state profit center [11][13]. - The company has demonstrated resilience through three historical turning points, showcasing its ability to quickly correct mistakes and iterate on its product offerings [12][18]. - Short-term focus should be on the company's performance in the high-end vehicle market, potential breakthroughs in overseas exports, and the rollout of new electric models [12][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Market Potential - The target market for the company is lucrative, with the profit from passenger vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB representing about 84% of the industry's steady-state profit center [11][13]. - In 2023, Chinese brands captured approximately 16% of the profits in the passenger vehicle market above 200,000 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points [11][15]. 2. Historical Turning Points - The company has successfully navigated three critical turning points: 1. After a strategic misstep with the Mini SEV, the company pivoted to focus on the six-seat SUV market, demonstrating strong market selection and product definition capabilities [12][18]. 2. In response to increased competition from Huawei's partner car manufacturers, the company accelerated product and organizational iterations to support the successful launch of the L series [12][18]. 3. Following underwhelming sales of the Ideal MEGA, the company quickly reassessed and redirected resources to stabilize the sales and market share of the L series [12][18]. 3. Short-term Focus Areas - The Ideal L6 is expected to stabilize and increase the company's market share in the high-end vehicle segment, leveraging brand momentum [12][36]. - The company is exploring overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East, which presents significant growth opportunities [12][36]. - The rollout of new electric models, enhanced by advancements in smart driving and ultra-fast charging, is anticipated to validate the brand's strength [12][36]. 4. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.89, 5.14, and 7.02 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 times for 2024 [4][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - In June 2024, the company achieved a sales volume of 48,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36.4%. The strong performance of the L6 model, which saw monthly deliveries exceed 20,000 units, contributed significantly to this growth [4][5]. - The company has a clear product roadmap with a total of four range-extended SUVs and one high-voltage pure electric model planned for 2024. This product matrix aims to cover the market segment above 200,000, catering to a broader consumer base [5]. - The company is rapidly expanding its supercharging station network, with plans to invest 6 billion yuan to establish 2,000 supercharging stations by the end of 2024, and a total of over 5,000 stations in the future [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June 2024, the company sold 47,774 vehicles, marking a 46.7% increase year-on-year and a 36.4% increase month-on-month. Cumulative sales for the first half of 2024 reached 189,000 units, up 77.4% from the previous year [4][5]. Product Strategy - The company has launched the L6 model, which has shown strong sales performance. The product lineup for 2024 includes four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model, enhancing the company's market coverage [5]. Charging Infrastructure - As of June 30, 2024, the company has established 614 supercharging stations and 2,726 charging piles, with significant month-on-month increases. The company plans to continue expanding its charging infrastructure aggressively [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates reaching a sales target of 560,000 units in 2024, supported by its dual-energy strategy and ongoing product launches, which are expected to enhance overall sales capacity and maintain a favorable profit level [5].