Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, showing significant improvement compared to a decline of 8.7% in the first half of the year [4]. - The total investment income was 27.498 billion, an increase of 11.358 billion year-on-year, with an annualized total investment return rate of 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points [4]. - The insurance service revenue for the first three quarters was 364.306 billion, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement from 5.1% in the first half [4]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters was 98.2%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the non-auto insurance cost ratio at 100.5%, indicating underwriting losses [5]. - The core solvency ratio stood at 201.6%, exceeding industry peers and regulatory requirements, providing a strong foundation for future dividend capabilities [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved asset-liability dynamics and valuation upside despite short-term pressures from natural disasters and market fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Net profit for Q1-Q3 2024: 26.75 billion, +38% YoY [4] - Total investment income: 27.498 billion, +11.358 billion YoY [4] - Insurance service revenue: 364.306 billion, +5.3% YoY [4] Cost and Solvency - Comprehensive cost ratio: 98.2%, +0.3 percentage points YoY [5] - Core solvency ratio: 201.6%, above industry standards [5] Market Outlook - Positive outlook on asset-liability improvements and valuation growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328.HK) [6][5] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth in total premium income, with non-auto insurance growth outpacing auto insurance. For the first three quarters, total premium income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance growing by 3.2% and 5.9%, respectively [2][10] - Investment income has significantly improved, with total investment income reaching 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%. The annualized total investment return rate is 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s competitive advantage in property and casualty insurance is expected to strengthen, particularly in the auto insurance sector, where the company has a higher proportion of low-loss vehicles and controllable channel costs [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Total premium income for the first three quarters was 409.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%. Auto insurance premiums grew by 3.2%, while non-auto insurance premiums grew by 5.9% [2][10] - In Q3 alone, non-auto insurance premiums saw a significant increase of 11.8% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.0%. The net profit for Q3 was 9.3 billion yuan, a remarkable growth of 59.7% year-on-year [6][5] - The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters was 98.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with auto insurance and non-auto insurance ratios at 96.8% and 100.5%, respectively [6][11] Investment Insights - The report highlights that the company’s current stock price corresponds to a 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.98, indicating a low valuation. The estimated reasonable value range is between 13.71 and 14.95 HKD based on comparable company valuations [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, with a revised target price of HK$14.00, representing a 15.9% upside from the current price of HK$12.08 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's net profit after tax (NPAT) grew 38.0% year-on-year to RMB26.75 billion for the first nine months of 2024, with a record high NPAT of RMB8.26 billion in Q3 2024, driven by significant fair value gains of RMB7.4 billion [1]. - The combined ratio (CoR) for non-auto insurance deteriorated to 100.5% in the first nine months of 2024, with Q3 CoR reaching 105.3%, attributed to increased catastrophic losses from non-auto claims [1][3]. - Auto CoR improved to 96.8% in the first nine months of 2024, contributing to a 30.6% year-on-year growth in auto underwriting premium (UWP) to RMB71.2 billion [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total investment income surged 70.4% year-on-year to RMB27.5 billion in the first nine months of 2024, with a significant increase in Q3 investment income driven by fair value gains [1][6]. - The report forecasts EPS for FY24E at RMB1.44, with subsequent years projected at RMB1.51 for FY25E and RMB1.60 for FY26E, reflecting an upward revision of 8% for FY24E [2][3]. - The combined ratio is expected to be 97.7% for FY24E, slightly improving to 97.4% in FY25E and 97.2% in FY26E [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 1.0x FY24E P/B, which is above the historical average, indicating a premium valuation [1][5]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase to 5.2% in FY24E, with further growth expected in subsequent years [2][9]. - The report highlights a long-term ROE of 13.5% and a target valuation of RMB275.7 billion for FY24E [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 12.0 to HKD 14.9, indicating a potential upside of 22.1% [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The significant growth in net profit for the third quarter is primarily driven by investment income, with a year-on-year increase of 38% for the first three quarters, aligning with the company's previous earnings forecast [1][2]. - The insurance service revenue growth remains stable, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, while the growth rates for auto and non-auto insurance are 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively [1][2]. - The combined ratio for auto insurance improved to 96.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-auto insurance segment experienced underwriting losses, leading to a combined ratio of 100.5% for the first three quarters, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total investment income for the first three quarters increased by 70% year-on-year, exceeding the annual total investment income forecast for 2023 by 32%. The annualized total investment return stands at 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The report projects a 31% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 13% [2][5]. - The forecast for insurance service revenue is set at RMB 483,629 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [4][5]. - The underwriting profit is expected to decline by 3.2% in 2024, with total investment income projected to rise by 51.5% [5][6]. Stock Performance Metrics - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 31.47%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 84.17 billion and an average daily trading volume of 18.79 million shares [3][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 14.04 and HKD 8.69, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328) and raises the target price to HKD 15.84 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/B of 1.4 times [3]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 38% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved investment profits, while the underwriting side faced pressure [2][3]. - The report highlights a "Matthew Effect" in auto insurance, which has led to an improvement in the combined ratio (COR), while non-auto insurance has been adversely affected by catastrophic claims, resulting in a higher COR [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 26.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.0%, mainly due to improved investment profits. The total investment return rate (not annualized) was 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The underwriting profit decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, attributed to increased catastrophic claims, with the combined ratio rising by 0.3 percentage points to 98.2% [3]. Auto Insurance - Auto insurance premiums grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by stable growth in the number of insured vehicles. However, the average premium per vehicle decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, although it improved by 0.8% compared to the first half of 2024 [3]. - The auto insurance COR for the first three quarters was 96.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from the company's scale effect and effective risk reduction measures [3]. Non-Auto Insurance - Non-auto insurance premium income increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily driven by health and liability insurance, which grew by 8.0% and 11.8% respectively. However, agricultural insurance saw a slowdown in growth, increasing by only 1.0% year-on-year [3]. - The underwriting loss for non-auto insurance was CNY 676 million, with a combined ratio of 100.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, largely due to natural disasters [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery in the equity market will serve as a catalyst for improved performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China P&C Insurance (02328 HK) with a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Core Views - China P&C Insurance achieved insurance service revenue of RMB 364 306 billion in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 5 3% Net profit reached RMB 26 750 billion, up 38 0% year-on-year, close to the upper limit of the previous performance forecast [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters was 98 2%, up 0 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to frequent natural disasters such as typhoons [1] - The total investment yield for the first three quarters was 4 4% (not annualized), an increase of 1 7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the recovery of the equity market [1] - The company's premium growth accelerated, with motor insurance, health insurance, and liability insurance showing significant growth [1] Business Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company's original premium income reached RMB 428 330 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4 6% Motor insurance contributed 49 8% of the original premium income, with a year-on-year growth of 3 2% [1] - Non-motor insurance premium income increased by 5 9% year-on-year, with health insurance and liability insurance growing by 8 0% and 11 8% respectively [1] - The COR for motor insurance was 96 8%, within the target range of 97%, while the COR for non-motor insurance was 100 5%, mainly affected by natural disasters [1] Investment Performance - The company's investment income significantly improved, with a total investment yield of 4 4% in 2024Q1-3, up 1 7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The recovery of the equity market, especially after the "924" market rally, contributed to the increase in investment income [1] - The company's net profit growth was close to the upper limit of the forecast, driven by investment income [1] Financial Forecast - The report revised the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 1 51/1 59/1 70, up from the previous forecast of RMB 1 37/1 54/1 70 [1] - The target PB ratio for 2025 is set at 1 1x, corresponding to a target price of HKD 15 2 [1] Market Performance - The current price of China P&C Insurance is HKD 12 08, with a total market capitalization of HKD 268 7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of HKD 83 3 billion [3] - The company's 12-month high/low price range is HKD 14 04/8 08 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 38.0% year-on-year to 26.75 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant rise in total investment income due to a recovery in the capital market [3][4] - The underwriting performance was under pressure due to the impact of major disasters, with the combined cost ratio rising to 98.2%, higher than expected [4][5] - The company is expected to continue its high-quality transformation, optimizing its business structure and improving risk identification capabilities [6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 12.20 - H-share market value (billion HKD): 2,713.62 - 52-week high/low (HKD): 14.12/8.55 [2] Financial Performance - Insurance service income for the first three quarters increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 364.31 billion yuan [4] - The combined cost ratio for non-auto insurance increased by 2.3 percentage points to 108.3% in Q3 2024, leading to a significant underwriting loss [5] - The company’s total investment return rate for the first three quarters was 4.4%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised to 32.67 billion, 34.84 billion, and 38.03 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The company’s price-to-book ratio for 2024E is 0.97x, indicating a relatively safe valuation cushion [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profit growth is driven by investment gains, with the company's performance nearing the upper end of its previously announced profit forecast of 20% to 40% [1] - The company achieved an insurance service revenue of CNY 364.31 billion for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Net profit for the same period reached CNY 26.75 billion, a significant increase of 38.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a recovery in the stock market boosting fair value changes [1] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Insurance service revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 424,355 - 2023A: 457,203 - 2024E: 494,002 - 2025E: 529,798 - 2026E: 569,764 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 6.9% - 2023A: 7.7% - 2024E: 8.0% - 2025E: 7.2% - 2026E: 7.5% - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million): - 2022A: 29,163 - 2023A: 24,585 - 2024E: 29,641 - 2025E: 32,330 - 2026E: 34,478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 30.4% - 2023A: -15.7% - 2024E: 20.6% - 2025E: 9.1% - 2026E: 6.6% - Return on equity (ROE): - 2022A: 13.4% - 2023A: 10.8% - 2024E: 12.1% - 2025E: 12.0% - 2026E: 11.8% - Price-to-book ratio (P/B): - 2022A: 1.20 - 2023A: 1.08 - 2024E: 0.98 - 2025E: 0.90 - 2026E: 0.83 [1] Performance Analysis - The company reported a cumulative ROE of 11.1% for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The total investment return rate improved significantly from 2.7% in 9M23 to 4.4% in 9M24, which was a key factor in the net profit improvement [1] - The company experienced a decline in underwriting profit, with a total underwriting profit down 12.7% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The cumulative comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for auto insurance was 96.8% for 9M24, showing a slight improvement due to effective cost control [1] - Non-auto insurance faced challenges with a COR of 100.5% for 9M24, primarily due to increased claims from natural disasters [1] - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-quality development and implementing a new business model combining insurance, risk reduction services, and technology [1]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 26.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit and total investment income were 6.44 billion yuan and 27.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% and an increase of 70%. The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.26 billion yuan, turning from a loss of 870 million yuan in Q3 2023, but down 35% quarter-on-quarter. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for the first three quarters increased by 0.8 percentage points to 98.2%, up from 96.2% in H1 2024. Due to improvements driven by the equity market, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 36.5 billion, 36.8 billion, and 38.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.6, 1.7, and 1.7 yuan [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's insurance service revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 364.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The revenue from auto insurance and non-auto insurance was 219.5 billion yuan and 144.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.7% and 6.1%. The comprehensive cost ratio for the first three quarters increased to 98.2%, with Q3 COR reaching 102%, influenced by natural disasters leading to higher claims [4][5]. Investment Income - Total investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, with Q3 showing a remarkable increase of 1261%. The annualized total investment return rate was 5.9%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily benefiting from significant improvements in the equity market [5]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leader in the property insurance industry, with a competitive advantage. The current dividend yield is 4.39%, and the current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 6.8, 6.8, and 6.4 for 2024-2026, and P/B ratios of 1.0, 0.9, and 0.8, respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these metrics [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) [2][4][7] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, China Pacific Insurance achieved original insurance premium income of 428.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% - The net profit reached 26.75 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 38.0% - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) was 98.2%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a slight increase in costs [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 26.75 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, which is a 38.0% increase compared to the previous year - The total investment income for the same period was 27.498 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 70.4% with an annualized investment return rate of 5.9% [6][7] Cost Analysis - The overall COR for the first three quarters was 98.2%, with the COR for auto insurance at 96.8% (down 0.6 percentage points) and for non-auto insurance at 100.5% (up 1.9 percentage points) - The company aims to achieve a target COR of around 97% for auto insurance and below 100% for non-auto insurance by the end of the year [6][7] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 33.9 billion, 35.7 billion, and 39.8 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 38%, 6%, and 11% [7]