纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 李宁（02331.HK） 2024 年 08 月 18 日 2024H1 跑步核心大单品表现亮眼，派息率提升 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/16 | | 当前股价(港元) | 13.100 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 41.450/12.880 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 338.57 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 338.57 | | 总股本(亿股) | 25.84 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 25.84 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 62.89 | 股价走势图 李宁 恒生指数 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024Q1 流水符合预期，零售折扣低 单改善—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.4.25 《2023 年批发及电商短暂调整，期待 2024 年货通价顺—港股公司信息更新 报告 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations with notable performance in the e-commerce channel. For the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 14.345 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.952 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.0% compared to the previous year [3][4] - The overall gross margin improved to 50.44%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhancements in the gross margins of both direct sales and e-commerce channels [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its store structure and enhancing high-quality and emerging market channels, with a total of 7,677 sales points as of mid-2024, an increase of 229 from the previous year [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the revenue breakdown by category is as follows: footwear at 7.844 billion RMB (up 4.4% year-on-year), apparel at 5.375 billion RMB (down 4.7%), and equipment and accessories at 1.126 billion RMB (up 30.3%) [4] - Revenue by channel shows: franchised distributors at 6.590 billion RMB (down 2.0%), direct sales at 3.502 billion RMB (up 2.7%), e-commerce at 4.004 billion RMB (up 11.4%), and international markets at 248 million RMB (down 14.4%) [4] - The company’s operating cash inflow increased by 40.6% to 2.73 billion RMB, indicating healthy operational efficiency [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 28.531 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 3%, and net profit is expected to be 3.252 billion RMB, reflecting a 2% increase [6][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated at 10, 8, and 7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6][7]

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2024 年 08 月 17 日 李宁 (02331) 公 司 点 评 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 13.10 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6161.9 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 40.65/12.88 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 338.57 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,584.48 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0911 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -66% -16% 34% HSCEI 李宁 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 ( ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 2024gszqdatemark 年 08 月 17 日 李宁（02331.HK） 2024H1 表现符合预期，全年业绩预计持平略增 公司 2024H1 营收增长 2.3%，归母净利润下降 8%，整体表现符合预 期。1）收入：2024H1 公司营收同比增长 2.3%至 143 亿元，其中批发/直 营/电商增速分别-2%/+3%/+11%。2）毛利率：2024H1 公司毛利率同比 提升 1.6pcts 至 50.4%，毛利率的提升一方面来源于电商以及线下直营业 务折扣的改善，另一方面来源于电商&直营占比提升导致渠道结构变化。 3）销售费用率：2024 年作为体育赛事大年，李宁加强销售费用投放， 2024H1 销售费用率提升 2pcts 至 30.2%。4）归母净利润：综合考虑利息 收入等非经常性收益的减少后，公司上半年归母净利润同比下降 8%至 20 亿元，归母净利率同比-1.5pcts 至 13.6%。5）派息：公司拟派发中期股 息每股 37.75 分/股，股利支付率为 50%（2023 年同期为 45%）。 李宁成人装：短期流水有所波动，公司重视内功修炼，推动品牌可持续增 长。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月17日 李宁（02331.HK） 优于大市 上半年收入增长 2%，折扣改善带动毛利率提升 上半年收入增长 2%，中期派息率提升至 50%。2024 上半年公司收入同比+2.3% 至 143.5 亿元；归母净利润同比-8.0%至 19.5 亿元。在消费疲软、线下客流 下滑严重的负面因素扰动下，公司收入仍实现稳健增长，盈利水平符合管理 层预期。毛利率同比+1.6 百分点至 50.4%，主要来自折扣改善和渠道结构变 化贡献；销售费用增长主要由于体育大年加大品牌营销投放，以及驱动流水 复苏而增加的推广促销费用。经营利润率同比-0.9 百分点至 16.7%，净利润 率同比-1.5 百分点至 13.6%。经营现金净流入同比+40.6%至 27.3 亿元；中 期分红率从去年同期 45%提升至 50%。 跑步品类引领增长，三大核心系列销量突破 500 万。上半年全渠道零售流水 整体下降约 1%，跑步/健身/运动生活/篮球分别+25%/+7%/-7%/-20%，跑步品 类占比提升至 30%，篮球品类占比下滑至 22%，运动生活、健身品类占比基 本稳定。超轻、赤兔、飞电三大核心跑鞋系列累计销售量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning (2331) [2] Core Views - H1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with profits surpassing forecasts while revenue met expectations [3] - The company revised its full-year 2024 revenue guidance downward due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures [3] - Li Ning's operating quality remains healthy, with the running category performing exceptionally well [4] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 14.345 billion, a 2.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Net profit for H1 2024 was RMB 1.952 billion, an 8% year-on-year decrease [4] - Gross margin improved to 50.4%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Net profit margin declined to 13.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company plans to pay an interim dividend of 37.75 cents per share, with a payout ratio of 50% [4] Business Operations - Running category sales increased 25% year-on-year in H1 2024, accounting for 30% of total sales [4] - Basketball category sales decreased 20% year-on-year in H1 2024, representing 22% of total sales [4] - Inventory turnover improved to 3.9 months, down from 4-4.5 months in Q1 2024 [4] - E-commerce gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points, while direct-to-consumer gross margin rose by 0.5 percentage points [4] Market Performance - Current stock price: HKD 13.10 [5] - 52-week price range: HKD 13.10 - 40.75 [5] - Current market capitalization: HKD 33.857 billion [5] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 net profit forecasts adjusted to RMB 3.20/3.62/3.90 billion, down from previous estimates of RMB 3.38/3.75/4.14 billion [4] - Projected PE ratios for 2024-2026: 10/9/8 times [4] - Revenue growth guidance for 2024 revised from mid-single-digit to low-single-digit growth [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was generally in line with expectations, with revenue of 14.35 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [1] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to an increase in expense ratios exceeding the growth in gross profit margins, with operating profit margin decreasing by 1.0 percentage points to 16.7% and net profit margin decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 13.6% [1] - The company adjusted its revenue guidance for 2024 to low single-digit growth, previously expecting mid-single-digit growth, while maintaining a low double-digit net profit margin guidance [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.35 billion HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% and a net profit of 1.95 billion HKD, reflecting an 8.0% decline [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the period was 0.76 HKD, with a proposed interim cash dividend of 0.378 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 50% [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%, mainly due to better product discount management and an increase in the proportion of high-margin direct sales [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by category for the first half of 2024 was distributed as follows: footwear (54.7%), apparel (37.5%), and equipment and accessories (7.8%), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, -4.7%, and 30.3% [1] - Revenue by channel showed a decline in distribution and retail store sales by 2.0% and an increase in e-commerce sales by 11.4% [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing market efficiency in high-tier markets and expanding into emerging markets, while also strengthening its product offerings in categories such as outdoor and youth apparel [4] - The company plans to manage inventory effectively and improve its flexible response capabilities to market changes [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 8%, 6%, and 5% respectively, with expected EPS of 1.25, 1.45, and 1.63 HKD for the respective years [4][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 10, 8, and 7 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]

Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 2.3% to RMB 14.345 billion, with a gross margin rise of 1.6 percentage points to 50.4%[2] - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 1.952 billion, with a net profit margin of 13.6%[6] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 1.965 billion, down from RMB 2.125 billion in the previous year[7] - Basic earnings per share decreased to RMB 75.80 from RMB 80.63 year-on-year[6] - The company's revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 14,345,288 thousand, an increase from RMB 14,018,947 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of 2.3%[41] - The group's profit attributable to equity holders for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,952,032,000, a decrease from RMB 2,121,231,000 in 2023, resulting in a profit margin of 13.6% compared to 15.1% in the previous year[54] Cash Flow and Assets - Operating cash inflow rose by 40.6% to RMB 2.730 billion, indicating improved cash flow management[2] - Total assets increased to RMB 35.536 billion from RMB 34.208 billion as of December 31, 2023[5] - The total cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 6,146,726,000, an increase of RMB 702,843,000 from December 31, 2023[57] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 37.2% from 40.2% as of December 31, 2023[38] Inventory and Receivables Management - Inventory decreased to RMB 2.313 billion from RMB 2.493 billion, reflecting better inventory management[4] - The company reported a total inventory of RMB 2,312.83 million as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 2,493.21 million as of December 31, 2023[19] - Accounts receivable as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 1,259.01 million, compared to RMB 1,243.75 million as of December 31, 2023[20] - The expected credit loss provision for trade receivables decreased to RMB 48,394 thousand as of June 30, 2024, down from RMB 142,428 thousand in the same period of 2023, indicating a reduction of about 66%[22] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from footwear reached RMB 7,844.16 million, an increase of 4.38% compared to RMB 7,514.67 million in the previous year[16] - Revenue from apparel decreased to RMB 5,375.22 million, down 4.67% from RMB 5,639.91 million in the same period last year[16] - E-commerce sales increased to RMB 4,004.26 million, up 11.39% from RMB 3,595.35 million in the previous year[17] - The proportion of revenue from e-commerce channels increased to 27.9%, up from 25.6% in the previous year[43] Expenses and Investments - Total sales and distribution expenses increased by 9.6% year-on-year to RMB 4,326,883,000, accounting for 30.2% of total revenue[47] - Administrative expenses rose to RMB 680,297,000, representing 4.7% of total revenue, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year[48] - Research and product development expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 317,257 thousand, an increase from RMB 290,764 thousand in the same period of 2023, representing a growth of about 9.1%[24] - The company completed the acquisition of Vansittart Investment Limited for a total consideration of HKD 2.221 billion (approximately RMB 2.013 billion), with RMB 1.813 billion allocated to investment properties[9] Market and Sales Performance - Overall retail sales (including online and offline) recorded a low single-digit decline, indicating challenges in market demand[2] - Direct sales revenue slightly increased by 2.7% year-on-year, maintaining a stable retail flow[41] - The basketball category has been strategically enhanced with the launch of four new product lines: "馭帥," "音速," "閃擊," and "空襲," each targeting specific performance functions[74] - The company has effectively utilized celebrity endorsements to reach a broader consumer base, enhancing brand recognition and appeal[80] Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - The company continues to focus on technological innovation to enhance sports participation and promote a healthy lifestyle[41] - The company has successfully launched three innovative products: "绝影3" running shoes, "龙雀" high-performance racing shoes, and biodegradable professional sports shoes, showcasing advancements in technology and environmental sustainability[70] - The company plans to increase the usage of metal 3D printing technology in shoe production to 60-70% by 2025, enhancing product precision and quality[71] - The company has engaged in various marketing strategies, including collaborations with Disney and LPL, to build emotional connections with younger consumers[81] Workforce and Organizational Development - The company employed 5,003 employees as of June 30, 2024, an increase from 4,845 employees at the end of 2023, indicating growth in workforce[89] - The company is committed to optimizing its organizational structure and enhancing talent development to support strategic goals[88] Corporate Governance and Compliance - The audit committee reviewed the accounting principles and practices adopted by the group and confirmed compliance with international accounting standards for the interim financial data[93] - There were no significant matters requiring disclosure under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules from June 30, 2024, to the date of the announcement[92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$26.55, representing a 71% upside from the current price of HK$15.50 [1] Core Views - Li Ning's 1H24 revenue is expected to grow by 2.0% YoY to RMB 14.3 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 14.9% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 5.1% YoY, reaching RMB 29.03 billion and RMB 3.35 billion, respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 49.4% in 1H24, up 0.6 percentage points YoY, driven by improved discount rates [1] - Li Ning is focusing on expanding its product line in the RMB 399-599 price range and adopting a "one county, one strategy" approach to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.6 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.7% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.02 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.1% [1] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 48.4% in 2023 to 50.0% in 2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HK$26.55 implies a 17x 2025 P/E ratio [1] - Current valuation metrics show a 2024E P/E of 10.9x, P/B of 1.4x, and P/S of 1.3x [2] Industry Outlook - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the Consumer Durables & Apparel sector, indicating expected outperformance relative to the market [1] Key Drivers - Li Ning's running shoe matrix is performing well, with continued iterations of flagship products like Jueying and Dilu [1] - The company is adjusting its basketball shoe offerings to cater to the consumption downgrade trend, introducing products priced between RMB 499-699 [1] - Channel reforms are underway, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities through tailored strategies [1]