Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, +19%, 0%, +1%, and +2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (+88%), Asics (+47%), and Descente (+35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (+55%), Berghaus (+41%), and Camel (+39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, Dazzle (+93%), Li Ning (+85%), and Xuezhongfei (+49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October (+0.7%) while wool prices decreased significantly (-20.9% month-on-month) [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies reported mixed revenue performances in October, but outlooks remain optimistic. Companies like Ju Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth-quarter orders in textile manufacturing are expected to recover, suggesting a potential turnaround for companies facing difficulties [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7] Key Company Performance Predictions - Shenzhou International: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and 4.96 in 2026 [7] - Huayi Group: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 2.85 in 2025 and 3.48 in 2026 [7] - Kai Run Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 1.52 in 2025 and 1.78 in 2026 [7] - New Australia Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 0.63 in 2025 and 0.71 in 2026 [7]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was negatively impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October, while wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - Taiwanese companies in the textile sector are optimistic about future revenue, with several companies expecting a recovery in orders and revenue in the fourth quarter [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery in orders, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are expected to benefit from improved order visibility and market demand [3][6][7] - In branded apparel, the report recommends focusing on high-end segments and brands in the sports and outdoor categories, highlighting Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Tebu International as key players [3][6]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products growing by 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, brands like Dazzle (93%), Li Ning (85%), and Snow Flying (49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases and decreases in October, with domestic cotton prices up by 0.7% and imported cotton prices down by 0.9%. Wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies showed varied revenue performance in October, with optimistic future outlooks. Companies like Ju Hong and Wei Hong reported strong order visibility and expected revenue recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see order recovery, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the health run project in the Shanghai Marathon has sparked significant reactions among running enthusiasts, highlighting the event's unique status and the challenges of managing a large number of participants [2][5][11]. Group 1: Shanghai Marathon's Special Status - The Shanghai Marathon, established for 28 years, is a prestigious event with a "pilgrimage" status among runners, akin to the lottery system for housing in Shanghai [5]. - This year, the total number of applicants for the full marathon and health run reached 356,589, with a full marathon acceptance rate of only 7.2% and a health run acceptance rate of 38.3% [7]. Group 2: Decision to Cancel Health Run - The decision to cancel the health run is seen as a "subtraction" aimed at enhancing the professional and international reputation of the marathon, as health runs accounted for 40% of the total 38,000 slots [11]. - The cancellation also includes the controversial charity run, which was perceived as a "money-grabbing" opportunity, conflicting with the spirit of professional competition [11]. Group 3: Shift Towards Professionalization - The decision reflects a shift towards professionalization and elitism in top-tier events, encouraging community and park runs to take on the role of promoting public fitness [13]. - The trend of professionalization in events parallels the evolution of running gear, with runners now seeking specialized equipment tailored to different running scenarios [13][17]. Group 4: Evolution of Running Gear - The running shoe market has seen a shift towards specialized footwear, with carbon plate shoes becoming standard for competitive runners, and various designs catering to different terrains and needs [17][21]. - The importance of selecting appropriate running shoes is emphasized, as improper footwear can lead to injuries, highlighting the need for shoes that provide cushioning, support, stability, and grip [19][21]. Group 5: Growth of Trail Running - Trail running has gained popularity, with numerous events taking place across the country, and a significant portion of participants aged between 22 and 55 [29][31]. - The choice of appropriate trail shoes is crucial for safety and performance, with specific designs catering to various terrains and conditions [35]. Group 6: Rise of Hiking Shoes - Hiking shoes have become a new choice for urban commuting, reflecting a shift in workplace attire towards comfort and practicality [41]. - The functionality of hiking shoes, including waterproof materials and slip-resistant soles, meets the demands of urban commuters while blending outdoor practicality with urban fashion [47]. Group 7: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The market for specialized footwear is expanding, with both international and domestic brands innovating to meet diverse consumer needs [52][56]. - The evolving consumer mindset reflects a deeper connection to lifestyle choices, where footwear represents not just functionality but also identity and lifestyle expression [61][63].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing increased short-term operational pressure, with a decline in average transaction value across all channels in Q3 2025. However, the e-commerce channel has shown growth [3][7]. - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue and gross margin levels, with a need to balance expenses and growth to meet annual targets. The introduction of new products and marketing efforts are aimed at revitalizing brand momentum [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 17.10 as of November 7, 2025 [5]. Operational Performance - In Q3 2025, the overall transaction value declined, with a notable drop in both direct and wholesale channels, while the e-commerce channel saw an increase [3][7]. - Monthly retail performance continues to be under pressure across all product categories [7]. Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels are expected to rise due to preemptive stocking for events like Double Eleven, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains manageable. Discounting is anticipated to deepen, particularly in Q4 [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.589 billion, 2.773 billion, and 2.993 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -14%, +7%, and +8% [9]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be 15.55, 14.52, and 13.45 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning has launched the "Polar Space Capsule" pop-up space in Beijing, showcasing a blend of winter sports elements and aerospace technology aesthetics, emphasizing its innovative "Aerospace Dynamic Thermal Technology Platform" [1][7]. Group 1: Event Overview - The pop-up space is open from November 7 to November 9, featuring immersive experiences centered around warmth [1]. - Three main technology experience areas are set up, focusing on "thermal insulation" as the core theme [3]. Group 2: Technology and Product Features - The "Aerospace Dynamic Thermal Technology Platform" includes three core functions: moisture permeability, thermal insulation, and protection [7]. - Consumers can experience the technology through interactive devices, showcasing the thermal capabilities of Olympic award-winning outfits [3][8]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Attendees can try on new cotton and down products and experience the dynamic thermal technology in a specially designed cold experience chamber [3][8]. - The event includes interactive activities like a curling challenge, allowing participants to win limited edition gifts [3]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Li Ning has established a partnership with an aerospace technology innovation application platform to create the "Aerospace Technology Innovation Application Laboratory" [7]. - This collaboration aims to extend research outcomes from competitive sports to everyday life, enhancing the brand's technological capabilities and cultural confidence [7].

Core Insights - The 15th National Games, co-hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau, gained significant attention during the opening ceremony, particularly with the unique "water stage" concept and the torch relay featuring athletes on water [1][10] - Anta emerged as a key player, providing waterproof socks for the torchbearers and being the official sports equipment partner for the event, with a high visibility rate during the opening ceremony [3][5] - The competition among sports brands was evident, with Li Ning and other brands like Karmay and 361° also gaining visibility through various representative teams [4][5] Brand Participation - Anta had 14 representative teams wearing its brand during the opening ceremony, maintaining the highest participation rate compared to other brands [3] - Li Ning's presence increased, with 8 representative teams wearing its apparel, up from 5 in the previous games [4] - Karmay continued to lead with 5 teams, while other brands from the Jinjiang region also participated, showcasing a diverse representation [4] Sponsorship and Marketing Trends - Some teams procured their outfits through a bidding process rather than sponsorship, indicating a mix of funding sources for team apparel [5] - The marketing strategy has shifted from traditional media to social platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, where athletes showcase their gear through unboxing videos, enhancing brand engagement [5][7] - The trend of athletes acting as "trendsetters" on social media has led to increased visibility and engagement for brands, moving away from conventional advertising methods [7][10] Social Media Impact - Unboxing videos by athletes have gained significant traction, with examples showing thousands of likes and shares, indicating a new form of brand promotion [7] - The rise of these videos reflects a deeper integration of digital life and athlete identity, creating a more personal connection with audiences [7][10] - The shift towards athlete-driven content creation represents a new competitive landscape for brands, focusing on emotional connections and real interactions with consumers [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a stable outlook for textile manufacturing and a positive trend for gold and jewelry sectors [3]. Core Insights - Textile manufacturing is expected to gradually improve due to stable overseas demand and low inventory levels, despite short-term production efficiency issues and order delays from existing clients [7][11]. - Brand apparel is facing pressure due to weak domestic consumption, with only a few companies showing positive performance through strong product and channel strategies [7][38]. - The gold and jewelry sector is experiencing high growth driven by low base effects, rising gold prices, and product structure upgrades, with leading brands showing significant revenue growth [7][49]. Summary by Sections Textile Manufacturing - Overseas demand remains stable, with low inventory levels in the U.S. indicating a healthy supply chain [12]. - Major global brands like NIKE are seeing recovery after two years of channel optimization, with orders expected to improve as major sporting events approach in 2026 [11][18]. - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Yuyuan Group, and others with Southeast Asian production capabilities [34]. Brand Apparel - The performance of brand apparel companies is generally under pressure, with most reporting low single-digit revenue growth and declining profits [38]. - Notable exceptions include Mercury Home Textiles and Luolai, which reported significant revenue and profit increases due to product expansion and multi-channel strategies [38]. - Companies like Mercury Home Textiles and Li Ning are recommended for their positive brand momentum and strategic changes [48]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a 11.5% increase in retail sales in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising gold prices and product upgrades [49]. - Leading brands such as Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long reported substantial revenue growth, with Chao Hong Ji's revenue increasing by nearly 50% in Q3 2025 [54]. - Investment recommendations focus on brands with strong market positioning and ongoing product and channel upgrades, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji [67].

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and strategies of Li Ning Company, a prominent player in the sportswear industry in China, particularly focusing on its sales performance and market strategies for the latter part of 2025 and into 2026 [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - October 2025 sales performance did not meet expectations, with offline sales experiencing negative growth, which offset the growth from e-commerce during the Double Eleven pre-sale [2][3]. - Overall, the company faced continuous negative growth across all channels in early November, indicating persistent pressure on terminal sales [2][3]. - Discounts have deepened both online and offline, with direct store discounts being particularly significant [2][3]. E-commerce Strategy - Li Ning's Double Eleven strategy for 2025 remains largely unchanged from 2024, focusing on traditional platforms like Tmall and JD.com, while experiencing volatility in live-streaming platform sales [2][6]. - The company aims to ensure Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) while controlling discounts to avoid excessive markdowns in a weak demand environment [6]. Product Performance and Future Plans - In Q3 2025, various product categories showed a decline in sales, with basketball and sports lifestyle categories experiencing significant drops of approximately 20% and 12%, respectively [7]. - The company plans to leverage technology and new running shoe iterations to prepare for the upcoming marathon season in Q1 2026, alongside launching a new winter clothing line featuring "Aerospace Dynamic Warmth Technology" [7][8]. - The badminton category, although small, showed impressive growth, with a slowdown from nearly 40% in H1 to over 30% in Q3 [8]. Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - The basketball market is currently weak, attributed to reduced interest and star player influence; however, the company sees potential in youth engagement through sponsorships [9]. - The sports lifestyle segment faces intense competition and homogenization, prompting organizational adjustments and the introduction of new design elements [9]. Dividend Policy and Inventory Management - Li Ning maintains a 50% interim dividend payout ratio, with potential for future optimization pending board approval [10]. - Dealers express cautious optimism about new products, with inventory levels being managed to maintain a healthy stock-to-sales ratio of 5-6 months, aiming to reduce it to 4-5 months by year-end [11]. Organizational Changes and Brand Strategy - The company has implemented a category management system to enhance operational efficiency, with new leadership in the China Li Ning and 1990 brands [13][14]. - Despite facing short-term challenges, the company aims to strengthen brand positioning and improve market performance through strategic marketing and product optimization [14]. Financial Outlook and Challenges - Profit margins are expected to face pressure in 2026 due to increased Olympic-related expenses and resource allocation for upcoming events [17]. - The company anticipates a stable markup rate despite challenges in maintaining average pricing due to material cost fluctuations [18]. Outdoor Product Development - Outdoor products currently account for a low single-digit percentage of total revenue, with expectations for gradual growth as the company increases its presence in this segment [19]. Shareholder Confidence - The major shareholder, Feifan, continues to increase its stake in Li Ning, signaling confidence in the company's strategy and market outlook [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategic directions of Li Ning Company in the competitive sportswear market.

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, the overall sales volume of Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a decline in unit numbers, with offline sales significantly impacted by foot traffic and consumer spending, while e-commerce showed a high single-digit growth year-on-year [1][2][3] Sales Performance - Q3 2025 saw a high single-digit decline in offline sales, primarily due to reduced foot traffic and consumer spending, with direct retail channels performing better than wholesale channels, benefiting from strong performance in outlet channels [1][2] - E-commerce business recorded a high single-digit growth year-on-year, with an increase in growth rate compared to Q2 [2][3] - The children's clothing segment continued to outperform adult clothing, with expectations of double-digit growth in children's apparel [2] Inventory and Discounts - The company increased its inventory turnover ratio at the end of Q3 2025, with a ratio corresponding to 5-6, as preparations were made for upcoming holidays and promotional events [1][2] - Both online and offline discount rates deepened in low single digits during Q3 2025, as the company intensified promotional efforts [2][3] Channel Expansion and Marketing Strategy - As of Q3 2025, the total number of Li Ning's sales points reached 6,132, with a net increase of 15 points since the beginning of the year, while children's clothing sales points totaled 1,480, with a net increase of 12 points [3] - The company plans to enhance marketing investments focusing on the "Olympics + Technology" theme in Q4 2025, aiming to improve product development and brand influence [3] - New product launches are expected in Q4, including technologically advanced products and collaborations, which are anticipated to drive sales improvement [3] Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 28.93 billion, 30.51 billion, and 32.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +0.9%, +5.4%, and +5.2% respectively [4] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is forecasted at 2.43 billion, 2.62 billion, and 2.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -19.5%, +7.8%, and +6.2% respectively [4]