证券研究报告 | 公司深度 gszqdatemark 2026 01 21 年 月 日 李宁（02331.HK） 聚焦奥运周期，品牌势能回归，关注业绩拐点 2025 年上半年李宁签约奥委会标志着公司进入新一轮的产品和营销周期，本次 深度报告旨在对李宁公司过往发展进行复盘，同时分析 2025-2028 奥运周期下 公司的核心看点： 短期由于消费环境波动，李宁公司基本面表现承压，当前公司处于品牌势能向上 周期，中长期业绩若有改善，或将带动股价上涨。2022 年以来面对消费环境波动， 公司经营情况承压，2025H1 公司营收/归母净利润同比+3.3%/-11%至 148/17 亿 元，2025Q3/Q4 李宁品牌流水分别下降中单位数/下降低单位数。中长期来看倘若 公司后续可以迎来收入或者利润的改善，市场对于公司长期的业绩预期有望得到 修复，从而带动股价上涨。 行业趋势：居民运动鞋服需求韧性强，运动多元化、专业化特征逐步显现。 2020~2024 年居民运动参与度提升，带动运动鞋服需求规模扩张，中长期来看随 着跑步运动参与度的提升，不同跑者的需求也将更加专业，另外有强社交属性的 "圈层运动"（例如户外、羽毛球、网球） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning Company [6] Core Views - The signing of the Chinese Olympic Committee in the first half of 2025 marks the beginning of a new product and marketing cycle for Li Ning, with potential for brand strength recovery and performance improvement [1][14] - Despite short-term pressures from fluctuating consumer environments, the company is positioned for a potential upward trend in stock price if revenue or profit improves in the medium to long term [1][4] Company Overview - Li Ning's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 are projected at 14.8 billion and 1.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of +3.3% and -11% [1][15] - The company has faced challenges since 2022, with a decline in brand revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [1][15] - The current channel structure is primarily wholesale, with revenue contributions of 46% from wholesale, 23% from direct sales, and 29% from e-commerce as of the first half of 2025 [15] Industry Trends - The demand for sports footwear and apparel among residents is resilient, with a projected market size of 260.2 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 9% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The diversification and specialization of sports participation are becoming more pronounced, with increased demand for professional products driven by rising participation in running and social sports [2] Competitive Strength - The Olympic cycle is expected to enhance Li Ning's brand power and strengthen sponsorship in niche categories [2][3] - The company is focusing on professional running shoes and outdoor products, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [3][4] Product Insights - In the first half of 2025, the revenue breakdown by category is as follows: running (34%), basketball (17%), training (16%), and sports lifestyle (29%), with running and training categories showing a growth of 15% each [3][15] - Li Ning is emphasizing the development of running shoes and enhancing the technological attributes of its training series [3] Channel Insights - As of the first half of 2025, Li Ning operates 4,821 franchise stores and 1,278 direct stores, with plans to open new store types focusing on Olympic and outdoor series products [3] - E-commerce revenue grew by 7% year-on-year to 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a stable growth strategy in this channel [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for Li Ning from 2025 to 2027 are 2.742 billion, 2.901 billion, and 3.302 billion yuan, with growth rates of -9%, +5.8%, and +13.8%, respectively [4][5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 17 times for 2026, suggesting potential for valuation improvement as the company's Olympic marketing strategy and product optimization continue [4]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index recovering from previous declines, closing up by 0.37% and 1.11% respectively [1][2] - The overall market remained stable despite a significant drop in US stocks overnight [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw gains, with notable increases in shares of Hua Hong Semiconductor (up over 5%) and SenseTime (up over 4%) [4][5] - Semiconductor stocks were active, driven by positive sentiment in the AI-driven storage cycle, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation reaching new highs [2][7] - Gold stocks surged, led by Chifeng Jilong Gold (up over 9%) and Lingbao Gold (up over 8%), as spot gold prices broke through $4,880 [6][8] Individual Stock Movements - The stock of Skyworth Group soared over 37% after announcing a distribution of shares in Skyworth Photovoltaic and plans for a mainboard listing [16] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 13.93 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hang Seng Index could challenge the 30,000 to 31,000 point range by 2026, as current valuations remain below historical averages [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Li Ning is experiencing a decline in retail sales and is actively expanding its product offerings and retail channels to enhance brand presence and sales performance [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a low single-digit decline year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing a medium single-digit decline [1] - The number of Li Ning sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) totaled 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter, with retail business seeing a net decrease of 59 and wholesale business a net increase of 33 [1] - Li Ning YOUNG sales points increased by 38 to a total of 1,518 as of December 31, 2025 [1] Group 3 - Li Ning opened its first "Dragon Store" in Beijing, launching the new "Honor Gold Standard" product series, which is expected to create a strong synergy for brand development and retail channel upgrades [2] - The new outdoor store "COUNTERFLOW" aims to connect urban life with nature, showcasing a blend of rugged and urban aesthetics [2] Group 4 - Li Ning announced a partnership with Taobao Flash Sale to enhance instant retail experiences, marking a significant step in expanding its multi-channel strategy [3] - The company has raised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 29.1 billion RMB, 30 billion RMB, and 31.1 billion RMB, with net profits of 2.66 billion RMB, 2.74 billion RMB, and 2.94 billion RMB respectively [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has been experiencing a downward trend, with the index dropping to around 26,300 points after reaching 27,000 points [1][2] - The market sentiment remains cautious, and the index needs to stabilize around 26,400 points to avoid further declines, with a potential drop to 25,800 points if it fails to hold [2][3] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to monitor the distribution of warrants, particularly the heavy positions around 25,800 points, which is a critical support level [2][4] - The current trading range for the index is suggested to be between 25,800 and 27,500 points for investment deployment [2] Stock Analysis: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has shown weakness, dropping to a low of 35.6 HKD, with concerns about its automotive safety impacting investor sentiment [6][7] - Despite previous strong performance, the stock has fallen below key support levels, leading to cautious investor behavior regarding long-term entry points [8] - Investors are considering options like call warrants with lower entry costs to mitigate risks while betting on potential rebounds [8][9] Stock Analysis: Semiconductor Industry (SMIC 00981) - SMIC has seen a decline in stock price, currently around 34 HKD, after a peak of 94 HKD, but investor interest remains strong for rebound opportunities [10][11] - New high-leverage products have been introduced to attract investors looking for higher returns in the semiconductor sector [11][13] Stock Analysis: Pop Mart (09992) - Pop Mart's stock has shown signs of recovery after management's first buyback in two years, indicating confidence in the company's future [15][16] - Investors are encouraged to consider call warrants as a way to capitalize on potential rebounds, with specific products highlighted for their favorable terms [16][24] Resource Sector Insights - The resource sector, particularly gold and silver, is gaining attention as prices reach historical highs, with recommendations for investing in related stocks or ETFs [19][20] - Investors are advised to consider leveraged products in the resource sector to maximize returns while managing capital [20] Domestic Consumption Sector - The domestic consumption sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policies promoting local brands, with companies like Li Ning and Midea being highlighted for potential investment [23][24] - Specific warrants for these companies are suggested as viable options for investors looking to capitalize on the domestic consumption trend [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Autumn/Winter collection of "China Li Ning" debuted in Milan under the theme "THE ATHLETE IN ALL OF US," showcasing the brand's commitment to professional sports and its deep-rooted connection to winter sports [1][3]. Group 1: Collection Inspiration and Design - The collection draws inspiration from the athlete spirit embedded in the brand, reflecting on the past and future of winter sports, and combines elements from professional snowboarding and ice hockey with modern interpretations of retro sports aesthetics [3][4]. - The design narrative integrates the Olympic achievements of Li Ning, creating a new visual symbol system that reinterprets vintage sports silhouettes while honoring the spirit of Chinese sports [4][19]. - The collection emphasizes a universal athletic spirit that transcends competition, celebrating resilience and self-improvement through an immersive fashion show experience [3][19]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The footwear line features diverse designs, including the "Youxia 2.0," inspired by outdoor trends, and the "Liejun ACE 3.0," which has become a highlight in international fashion weeks due to its retro structure [7][10]. - New shoe models like "Wudao 3.0 MID" and "Wudao FUTURE" incorporate advanced technologies such as 3D printing, while color palettes pay homage to significant moments in Chinese sports history [7][10][12]. - The women's footwear collection introduces models like "Linglong RACER," blending racing inspiration with elegant retro aesthetics, and "Tied Ground Flying ACE," which draws from classic badminton shoes [10][12]. Group 3: Show Experience and Cultural Significance - The fashion show created an immersive experience reminiscent of classic winter sports venues, transitioning from nostalgic elements to a vast, snow-inspired landscape, enhancing audience anticipation [15][17]. - The event featured 68 outfits, starting with the "Li Ning Honor Gold Standard" series, and concluded with a celebratory moment involving Li Ning, actor Jackie Chan, and Olympic champion Ma Long, emphasizing the cultural significance of sports [17][19]. - The overarching narrative of the show honors top athletes and the enduring human spirit behind sports culture, aiming to ignite the athlete spirit within everyone and promote the values of perseverance and achievement [19].

Technical Analysis - Li Ning's stock price has shown a strong breakout, closing above the significant psychological level of 20 HKD, confirmed by increased trading volume, indicating heightened investor interest [1] - However, the rapid price increase has created technical adjustment pressure, with multiple oscillators signaling overbought conditions, including an RSI of 67 and warnings from the Williams and stochastic indicators [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at 21.4 HKD and 21.8 HKD, with a significant challenge expected at higher targets like 25 HKD [1] Market Perspectives - Long-term view highlights structural opportunities driven by favorable policies, such as tax rebates and consumption subsidies, which are expected to boost domestic demand through 2026 [4] - Li Ning, as a leading company in the domestic sports goods sector, is positioned to benefit from these long-term trends, with a recommendation for a call option with a strike price of 23.33 HKD [4] - Short-term perspectives express caution, noting that the stock is nearing overbought territory, with the daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices close to or exceeding the upper Bollinger Band [5] Derivative Products Analysis - Recent performance of derivative products shows significant leverage, with a call option gaining approximately 10% in two trading days, compared to a 2.36% increase in the underlying stock [6] - In the current market context, selecting derivative products should align closely with key technical levels of the underlying stock to manage risk effectively [8] - Specific call options, such as those with a strike price of 23.3 HKD, are designed for investors who believe in Li Ning's long-term potential and expect a breakout above short-term resistance [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in overall channel revenue for Q4 2025, with a decrease in low single-digit sales in offline channels and a flat performance in e-commerce channels [2][6]. - The company is expected to experience a steady recovery by 2026, driven by the introduction of new running shoe technologies and the expansion of its product offerings in outdoor and honor-related categories [9]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.71 billion, 2.85 billion, and 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10%, +5%, and +7% [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 20.40 as of January 16, 2026 [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.96 billion, with a growth rate of 1% compared to the previous year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.70 [11]. Market Performance - The company is expected to face challenges in retail performance in the short term, but is anticipated to benefit from brand momentum and product innovation in the long term [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese footwear and apparel industry is experiencing significant differentiation in 2025 due to dual influences of market adjustment and industrial transformation, with the sports and outdoor segment leading the way [1][2] - Domestic brands are reshaping the market landscape through technological innovation and globalization, while traditional brands struggle with high inventory and rigid channels [1][2] Industry Performance - In the first three quarters, revenue for large apparel enterprises fell by 4.63% year-on-year, with total profits declining by 16.19%, reflecting severe industry pressure [1] - The sports footwear and apparel market is projected to reach a scale of 598.9 billion yuan, with predictions of exceeding 896.3 billion yuan by 2030 [1] Brand Dynamics - Traditional brands are facing significant growth challenges, with examples like Fuqiniaos declaring bankruptcy and Red Dragonfly reporting losses [2] - In contrast, domestic sports brands are rising, with local brands expected to hold about 60% of the market share among the top 20 brands by 2025 [2] Market Concentration - The market is shifting towards concentration, with the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% market penetration, leading to a widening gap between large and small enterprises [3] - Adidas reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in the Greater China region, while Nike faced a 17% decline in revenue, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of international brands [3] Channel Innovation - The industry is witnessing a shift towards deep exploration of niche markets and a reconstruction of channel models, with a focus on offline large stores and online instant retail [4][6] - Major brands are opening large stores, with Anta planning to add 160 new "super stores" by 2025, which can achieve 2-2.5 times the sales efficiency of regular stores [6] Globalization and High-End Trends - The industry is expected to see trends of high-end, global, and technological advancements, with brands needing to differentiate and operate finely to survive [7][8] - Domestic brands are increasingly expanding overseas, with companies like Semir and HLA establishing over 100 stores in Southeast Asia, although many are still in the early stages of international branding [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more mature and rational, seeking high-quality and precise consumption, which poses a threat to brands lacking innovation and differentiation [9] - There remains untapped potential in the mass and middle-aged markets in China, indicating areas for future growth [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that 361 Degrees has shown steady growth in revenue, while Li Ning's revenue decline has narrowed, with profit margins exceeding expectations. The company has opened 33 new stores, bringing the total to 126, which is above initial expectations for the year [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on leading home textile brands such as Water Star Home Textile and Luolai Home Textile, as well as sports brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng, which are expected to benefit from major sporting events in 2026 [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential of AI applications in consumer products, particularly in the context of AI smart glasses and 3D printing, indicating a significant growth opportunity in these areas [6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry index decreased by 1.11%, ranking 20th among 28 Shenwan industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 0.55%, ranking 15th [10] - The report notes that the revenue growth for 361 Degrees' main brand and children's clothing is approximately 10%, with e-commerce revenue growing at a high double-digit rate [5][6] Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a healthy revenue increase, while Li Ning's retail revenue saw a slight decline in the low single digits across various channels [5][6] - The report recommends monitoring companies with strong growth potential, including those in the AI and consumer goods sectors, as well as established brands in textiles and home goods [6] Industry Trends - The report indicates a recovery in the paper industry, with prices for certain types of paper expected to rebound after recent declines. It suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs and those with integrated advantages in cultural paper production [6][41] - The furniture manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with a reported 9.1% decrease in revenue year-on-year, and a significant number of companies facing losses [66][69]