Simon：Niki 你好！那我們今天（20日）就先來跟大家聊一聊港股的情況吧。你也看到了，港股在過去兩天其實一直都在回調，今天（20日）也 繼續下跌了一些。市場上投資者的情緒和氛圍怎麼樣呢？ 中銀國際董事Niki：其實從指數來看，今天（20日）已經跌到了26300點附近。大家也能發現，指數在沖到27000點之後，短短幾天就又回落下來了。所以整 體來看，市場並沒有辦法一鼓作氣地持續上漲。在27000點這個位置，仍然需要一些時間來消化。而對於早前的那一波上漲行情，相信也需要在26400點附近 這個位置，看看能不能站穩。如果這個位置能夠守住，那自然是好事。但如果守不住，或者市場行情進一步走弱，指數有可能會再回落至25800點。大家可 能會問，25800點這個位置是怎麼來的，難道是憑空想出來的嗎？其實我建議大家可以登錄我們中銀國際的網站，網址是www.bocifp.com。在這個網站上， 有一欄重要數據非常值得大家參考，就是恆指牛熊證街貨分佈圖。 這個圖我們基本上每天都會更新兩次。我剛才提到的25800點，其實就是恆指牛證的重貨區。今天（20日）已經觸及到了26400點這個重貨區，對應的牛證已 經被收回了。下一個重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Autumn/Winter collection of "China Li Ning" debuted in Milan under the theme "THE ATHLETE IN ALL OF US," showcasing the brand's commitment to professional sports and its deep-rooted connection to winter sports [1][3]. Group 1: Collection Inspiration and Design - The collection draws inspiration from the athlete spirit embedded in the brand, reflecting on the past and future of winter sports, and combines elements from professional snowboarding and ice hockey with modern interpretations of retro sports aesthetics [3][4]. - The design narrative integrates the Olympic achievements of Li Ning, creating a new visual symbol system that reinterprets vintage sports silhouettes while honoring the spirit of Chinese sports [4][19]. - The collection emphasizes a universal athletic spirit that transcends competition, celebrating resilience and self-improvement through an immersive fashion show experience [3][19]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The footwear line features diverse designs, including the "Youxia 2.0," inspired by outdoor trends, and the "Liejun ACE 3.0," which has become a highlight in international fashion weeks due to its retro structure [7][10]. - New shoe models like "Wudao 3.0 MID" and "Wudao FUTURE" incorporate advanced technologies such as 3D printing, while color palettes pay homage to significant moments in Chinese sports history [7][10][12]. - The women's footwear collection introduces models like "Linglong RACER," blending racing inspiration with elegant retro aesthetics, and "Tied Ground Flying ACE," which draws from classic badminton shoes [10][12]. Group 3: Show Experience and Cultural Significance - The fashion show created an immersive experience reminiscent of classic winter sports venues, transitioning from nostalgic elements to a vast, snow-inspired landscape, enhancing audience anticipation [15][17]. - The event featured 68 outfits, starting with the "Li Ning Honor Gold Standard" series, and concluded with a celebratory moment involving Li Ning, actor Jackie Chan, and Olympic champion Ma Long, emphasizing the cultural significance of sports [17][19]. - The overarching narrative of the show honors top athletes and the enduring human spirit behind sports culture, aiming to ignite the athlete spirit within everyone and promote the values of perseverance and achievement [19].

Technical Analysis - Li Ning's stock price has shown a strong breakout, closing above the significant psychological level of 20 HKD, confirmed by increased trading volume, indicating heightened investor interest [1] - However, the rapid price increase has created technical adjustment pressure, with multiple oscillators signaling overbought conditions, including an RSI of 67 and warnings from the Williams and stochastic indicators [1] - Key resistance levels are identified at 21.4 HKD and 21.8 HKD, with a significant challenge expected at higher targets like 25 HKD [1] Market Perspectives - Long-term view highlights structural opportunities driven by favorable policies, such as tax rebates and consumption subsidies, which are expected to boost domestic demand through 2026 [4] - Li Ning, as a leading company in the domestic sports goods sector, is positioned to benefit from these long-term trends, with a recommendation for a call option with a strike price of 23.33 HKD [4] - Short-term perspectives express caution, noting that the stock is nearing overbought territory, with the daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices close to or exceeding the upper Bollinger Band [5] Derivative Products Analysis - Recent performance of derivative products shows significant leverage, with a call option gaining approximately 10% in two trading days, compared to a 2.36% increase in the underlying stock [6] - In the current market context, selecting derivative products should align closely with key technical levels of the underlying stock to manage risk effectively [8] - Specific call options, such as those with a strike price of 23.3 HKD, are designed for investors who believe in Li Ning's long-term potential and expect a breakout above short-term resistance [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in overall channel revenue for Q4 2025, with a decrease in low single-digit sales in offline channels and a flat performance in e-commerce channels [2][6]. - The company is expected to experience a steady recovery by 2026, driven by the introduction of new running shoe technologies and the expansion of its product offerings in outdoor and honor-related categories [9]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.71 billion, 2.85 billion, and 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10%, +5%, and +7% [9][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 20.40 as of January 16, 2026 [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.96 billion, with a growth rate of 1% compared to the previous year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.70 [11]. Market Performance - The company is expected to face challenges in retail performance in the short term, but is anticipated to benefit from brand momentum and product innovation in the long term [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese footwear and apparel industry is experiencing significant differentiation in 2025 due to dual influences of market adjustment and industrial transformation, with the sports and outdoor segment leading the way [1][2] - Domestic brands are reshaping the market landscape through technological innovation and globalization, while traditional brands struggle with high inventory and rigid channels [1][2] Industry Performance - In the first three quarters, revenue for large apparel enterprises fell by 4.63% year-on-year, with total profits declining by 16.19%, reflecting severe industry pressure [1] - The sports footwear and apparel market is projected to reach a scale of 598.9 billion yuan, with predictions of exceeding 896.3 billion yuan by 2030 [1] Brand Dynamics - Traditional brands are facing significant growth challenges, with examples like Fuqiniaos declaring bankruptcy and Red Dragonfly reporting losses [2] - In contrast, domestic sports brands are rising, with local brands expected to hold about 60% of the market share among the top 20 brands by 2025 [2] Market Concentration - The market is shifting towards concentration, with the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% market penetration, leading to a widening gap between large and small enterprises [3] - Adidas reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in the Greater China region, while Nike faced a 17% decline in revenue, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of international brands [3] Channel Innovation - The industry is witnessing a shift towards deep exploration of niche markets and a reconstruction of channel models, with a focus on offline large stores and online instant retail [4][6] - Major brands are opening large stores, with Anta planning to add 160 new "super stores" by 2025, which can achieve 2-2.5 times the sales efficiency of regular stores [6] Globalization and High-End Trends - The industry is expected to see trends of high-end, global, and technological advancements, with brands needing to differentiate and operate finely to survive [7][8] - Domestic brands are increasingly expanding overseas, with companies like Semir and HLA establishing over 100 stores in Southeast Asia, although many are still in the early stages of international branding [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more mature and rational, seeking high-quality and precise consumption, which poses a threat to brands lacking innovation and differentiation [9] - There remains untapped potential in the mass and middle-aged markets in China, indicating areas for future growth [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that 361 Degrees has shown steady growth in revenue, while Li Ning's revenue decline has narrowed, with profit margins exceeding expectations. The company has opened 33 new stores, bringing the total to 126, which is above initial expectations for the year [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on leading home textile brands such as Water Star Home Textile and Luolai Home Textile, as well as sports brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng, which are expected to benefit from major sporting events in 2026 [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential of AI applications in consumer products, particularly in the context of AI smart glasses and 3D printing, indicating a significant growth opportunity in these areas [6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry index decreased by 1.11%, ranking 20th among 28 Shenwan industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 0.55%, ranking 15th [10] - The report notes that the revenue growth for 361 Degrees' main brand and children's clothing is approximately 10%, with e-commerce revenue growing at a high double-digit rate [5][6] Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a healthy revenue increase, while Li Ning's retail revenue saw a slight decline in the low single digits across various channels [5][6] - The report recommends monitoring companies with strong growth potential, including those in the AI and consumer goods sectors, as well as established brands in textiles and home goods [6] Industry Trends - The report indicates a recovery in the paper industry, with prices for certain types of paper expected to rebound after recent declines. It suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs and those with integrated advantages in cultural paper production [6][41] - The furniture manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with a reported 9.1% decrease in revenue year-on-year, and a significant number of companies facing losses [66][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 19.50, indicating a potential downside of 0.3% from the closing price of HKD 19.55 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in retail sales, but recovery momentum remains uncertain. The overall operations are still in a bottoming phase, with management indicating that the previously provided guidance for slight revenue growth and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be achieved [3][8]. - The company is benefiting from effective cost control and government subsidies, which support the maintenance of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The upcoming sports events in 2026 are expected to enhance brand marketing and market attention, potentially increasing long-term brand value [8]. - Offline channels continue to face pressure, with discount levels deepening to around 60%, reflecting competitive industry dynamics. The e-commerce channel's growth has weakened compared to previous quarters [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27,598 million - 2024: RMB 28,676 million (7.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 28,929 million (3.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 30,286 million (0.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 31,206 million (4.7% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,187 million - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,664 million - 2026E: RMB 3,007 million - 2027E: RMB 3,370 million [4][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: RMB 1.23 - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.03 - 2026E: RMB 1.17 - 2027E: RMB 1.31 [4][21]. Market Position and Strategy - As of the end of Q4 2025, the inventory turnover ratio has returned to a healthy level of 4-5 months, achieving the company's target. The total number of Li Ning stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 41 to 6,091 [8]. - The company is actively optimizing its store network, with the first "Dragon Store" model launched in December [8].

每经AI快讯，李宁(02331.HK)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.82%，报21.18港元，成交额3.38亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen an increase of over 4%, currently trading at 21.18 HKD with a transaction volume of 338 million HKD, despite a slight decline in retail sales for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning reported a low single-digit decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, excluding Li Ning YOUNG, indicating a year-on-year decrease [1] - Guosen Securities noted that the decline in Li Ning's bulk sales for Q4 was less severe compared to Q3, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels [1] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, reflecting better inventory management [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for last year's net profit [1] - According to浦银国际, strong market sentiment could lead to significant upward momentum in Li Ning's stock price if there is a clear trend of brand recovery and improvement in sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's stock has seen an increase of over 4%, currently trading at 21.18 HKD with a transaction volume of 338 million HKD, despite a reported decline in retail sales for Q4 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning announced a low single-digit decline in retail sales for its sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) across the platform for Q4 2025 [1] - Guosen Securities reported that the decline in Li Ning's bulk sales for Q4 was a low single-digit decrease, which is an improvement compared to Q3, primarily due to a reduction in the decline of offline channels [1] - The inventory turnover ratio improved to 4-5 months, indicating better inventory management [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level, suggesting an upward adjustment in market consensus for last year's net profit [1] - According to浦银国际, strong market sentiment could lead to significant upward momentum in Li Ning's stock price if there is a clear trend of brand recovery and improvement in sales [1]