证券研究报告 | 2026年01月19日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-01-16 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4101.91 | 14281.08 | 4731.87 | 15405.86 | 4188.08 | 1514.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.25 | -0.17 | -0.41 | -0.22 | -0.11 | 1.34 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 13380.17 | 16882.14 | 7856.24 | 5717.47 | 8391.67 | 1167.89 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ ($\frac{\pi}{10}$) 宏观与策略 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-全面降息是储备而非标配 固定收益专题研究:资金观察，货币瞭望——政策宽松加结构性 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies including Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, Anta Sports, and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 15x for Shenzhou International and Huayi Group [2][9][26]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing resilience while others face challenges due to fluctuating orders and profit margins [1][3]. - The report anticipates a cautious improvement in downstream orders for 2026, supported by healthy inventory levels and strong sales performance from certain brands [2][20]. - The sportswear segment is expected to outperform the broader apparel market, driven by strong inventory management and long-term growth potential [3][26]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - Several apparel manufacturers reported their 2025 revenue, with Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group showing year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +3.2%, and +0.5% respectively for the full year [1][12]. - In December 2025, Feng Tai Enterprises, Ru Hong, and Yu Yuan Group reported monthly revenues down by -0.6%, -3.6%, and -3.7% respectively [1][12]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a weakening industry sentiment since H2 2025, with Southeast Asia's export performance continuing to surpass that of China [2][17]. - For 2026, the report expects cautious improvements in orders, with a focus on core brand performance and inventory management [20]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with Shenzhou International expected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in 2025 and Huayi Group's profits anticipated to recover gradually [2][25]. - Other companies to watch include Wei Xing Co., Kai Run Co., and Jing Yuan International, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in orders [2][26]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down by 0.57% while the textile manufacturing sector fell by 0.77% [30].

分品类看，25Q4 跑步品类同比增长中单位数，羽毛球增速环比放缓，户外品类基数较小增长亮眼，篮 球、运动生活品类持续负增长。展望未来，我们预计跑步品类由于竞争加剧增速可能放缓，羽毛球品类 经历过去两年持续高增后也可能存在调整放缓，篮球和运动生活品类则有望通过产品调整优化呈现逐步 改善。 全球首家李宁户外及首家龙店开业，正式发布荣耀金标产品系列。2025年11 月，李宁在北京朝阳大悦 城开设首家"李宁户外"店，并于12 月在北京三里屯开设首家"龙店"。其中，"李宁户外"定位轻户外大众 化市场，聚焦轻户外徒步旅游、近郊露营、城市通勤三大场景，积极拥抱国内户外消费趋势。龙店围 绕"领奖时刻"、"竞技时刻"及"生活时刻"三大主题，为消费者打造专属产品与体验，提供融合体育精神 共鸣、文化深度交流与沉浸式产品体验空间，同步发布的荣耀金标产品系列则融合了专业运动科技和极 简精炼的设计风格，定位追求品质生活的都市人群，满足其通勤、商务、轻运动需求。户外和龙店的开 设有助品牌拓展新的客群，公司计划短期主要以快闪店形式开设龙店，开店计划相对稳健和谨慎，以更 好平衡投入产出。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑公司2025 年底收到政府补贴 ...

机构：国盛证券 李宁YOUNG：2025Q4 童装业务或延续稳健增长态势。截至2025Q4 末李宁YOUNG 门店为1518 家（对 比年初净开50 家），从流水层面来看我们预计童装业务或有增长表现，表现优于成人，公司强化童装 业务推广，同时优化产品结构。 2025Q4 末库销比预计在4~5 之间，处于健康水平。此前的报告中我们提到出于对"国庆"、"中秋"双节 以及"双十一大促"的备货需要，2025Q3 末库销比或在5-6 之间，然而经过Q4 的多次大促和库存去化 后，我们预计到年底库销比或已经回到4-5 之间的健康水平。 我们预计公司2025 年归母净利润27.42 亿元，2026 年多维度营销举措开展，同时新店型逐步试水。基于 全年的销售表现，我们预计公司2025 年收入略有增长，归母净利润同比下降9%至27.42 亿元。 2026 年以来公司在国内多地陆续开设""店店"快闪店展示荣耀金标系列产品，同时随着冬奥会的临近， 李宁品牌登陆米兰时装周提升产品以及品牌曝光，2026 年我们预计公司将加大对于奥运相关活动以及 各运动品类的赞助力度，同时推动新店型"店店"试水，在产品层面跑步、综训或仍是公司销售主打， ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/张霜凝 渠道结构持续调整，龙店开设稳步推进 截至4Q25，李宁（不包括李宁YOUNG）门店6091 个，季度净关41 个，全年净关26 个，其中直营/批发 门店净关59 个/净开33 个；童装门店1518个，季度净增38 个，全年净增50 个，继续保持扩张态势。受 益于亏损店关闭及开关店节奏较好，2H25 渠道费用控制较好。此外，公司正积极布局多个垂类新店 型，包括龙店、户外店、篮球店，预计龙店未来1-2 个月内将在全国开设十余家快闪/慢闪店（我们统计 截至1.15 已开9 家），故宫花园店春节前后有望亮相、上海南京东路的龙店首店或将于2026 年中亮相。 折扣受暖冬影响加大，库销比回归健康区间 我们预计4Q25 整体折扣同比及环比均加深低单位数，线下折扣绝对水平略深于6.5 折（含奥莱），其中 12 月因冬季气温偏暖，公司加大冬装清货力度，导致折扣加深幅度较为显著。但在积极的库存管理 下，我们预计期末全渠道库销比已回落至4-5 个月的健康区间，各渠道的库龄结构亦保持良好。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到25 年公司精细化管理有望优化费用水平，带动盈利能力持续提升，但26 年作为奥运大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a low single-digit decline in retail sales for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, with offline channels experiencing a mid single-digit decline and e-commerce remaining flat [1][2][3] Retail Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the total number of sales points in China was 6,091, a net decrease of 41 from the previous quarter, with retail business decreasing by 59 and wholesale business increasing by 33 [1] - The decline in sales was primarily due to offline channels, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [2][3] Sales and Discounts - The fourth quarter saw a low single-digit decline in sales, which improved compared to the mid single-digit decline in the third quarter, with e-commerce performing better than offline channels [3] - Discounts deepened in the fourth quarter, with the absolute level slightly above 60%, particularly in December due to increased promotional efforts for autumn and winter apparel [4] Inventory Management - The inventory turnover ratio improved to a healthier level of 4-5 months, down from 5-6 months in the previous quarter, indicating effective inventory management [4] - Direct sales channels showed better inventory turnover compared to wholesale channels [4] New Product Launches - The company launched a series of new products in the fourth quarter, including innovative running shoes designed for rainy weather and new basketball models [4] - The introduction of new store formats, such as outdoor specialty stores and "dragon stores," is expected to contribute to long-term sales growth [4][5] Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 26.2 billion, 28.0 billion, and 32.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -13.1%, +7.0%, and +17.3% respectively [5][6] - The target price has been raised to 22.1-23.3 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 19-20 times for 2026, maintaining an "outperform" rating [5][6]

流水表现仍有所承压，零售表现好于批发。由于整体消费较为疲软和竞争环境激烈，25Q4 公司全平台 流水（不包括李宁YOUNG）同比录得低单位数下滑，其中线下渠道（包括零售及批发）录得中单位数 下滑，零售渠道录得低单位数下滑，批发渠道录得中单位数下滑，零售好于年初预期，下半年加大了清 货和促销力度，使得零售表现好于批发；电商渠道持平，其中表现较好的渠道有抖音（双位数增长）、 京东（单位数增长）、唯品会（库存出清的重点渠道）。从不同的品类来看，跑步录得中单位数增长， 运动生活和篮球品类均录得负增长，户外品类表现较好。库存和折扣方面，Q4 库销比为4-5，保持健康 水平，但折扣同比和环比均有低单位数加深，目前略深于6 折中段（口径包含奥莱等所有特卖渠道）， 主要是由于暖冬需要加大折扣来清库存。未来公司也会通过产品的调整优化来改善流水表现。 门店数量下降，新店型或将带来惊喜。截止12 月31 日，李宁大货（不包括李宁YOUNG）门店数量为 6091 个，较Q3 末净减少41 个，年初至今净减少26个，其中直营零售门店净减少59 个，批发门店净增 加33 个；童装门店数量1518 个，较Q3 末净增加38 个，年初至今净 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of 24 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline in Q4 2025, with offline channels seeing a mid-single-digit decline while e-commerce growth remained flat [2][3]. - The retail performance outperformed wholesale due to increased clearance and promotional efforts in the second half of the year, with notable growth in specific e-commerce channels like Douyin and JD [2]. - The introduction of new store formats, particularly the "Dragon Store," has been well-received, targeting consumers who value quality and brand prestige, indicating potential for future growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 28.941 billion RMB, 30.559 billion RMB, and 31.889 billion RMB, respectively, with expected EPS of 1.04, 1.08, and 1.17 RMB [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 2.675 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 2.787 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.006 billion RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for the coming years, reflecting effective cost management [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao marks the third CEO change in four years, driven by significant challenges in the core hotpot business and the need for strategic realignment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao reported a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, and a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan, down 13.7% [1]. - The core operating profit for the same period was 2.408 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.0% decrease year-on-year [1]. - Despite the challenges, the total number of Haidilao stores has increased to nearly 1,400, although the average table turnover rate fell to 3.8 times per day, below the internal benchmark of 4 times [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Challenges - Haidilao's previous growth model, characterized by exceptional service and rapid expansion, has reached a bottleneck, necessitating a strategic shift [2]. - The multi-brand strategy, including the Red Pomegranate brand with 126 stores, contributed only 5.97 million yuan in revenue, accounting for just 2.9% of total revenue, indicating limited short-term impact on offsetting declines in the core business [2]. - The company faces three major challenges: revitalizing the aging main brand to attract lost customers, managing the complexities of a multi-brand strategy without diluting resources, and addressing the increased management complexity of a diverse restaurant empire [3].

里昂发布研报称，李宁（02331）2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025财年净利润率处于 高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该行预计下一轮估值 重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调至18港元，维 持"持有"评级。 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 责任编辑：史丽君 责任编辑：史丽君 里昂发布研报称，李宁（02331）2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025财年净利润率处于 高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该行预计下一轮估值 重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调至18港元，维 持"持有"评级。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...