Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of 24 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline in Q4 2025, with offline channels seeing a mid-single-digit decline while e-commerce growth remained flat [2][3]. - The retail performance outperformed wholesale due to increased clearance and promotional efforts in the second half of the year, with notable growth in specific e-commerce channels like Douyin and JD [2]. - The introduction of new store formats, particularly the "Dragon Store," has been well-received, targeting consumers who value quality and brand prestige, indicating potential for future growth [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 28.941 billion RMB, 30.559 billion RMB, and 31.889 billion RMB, respectively, with expected EPS of 1.04, 1.08, and 1.17 RMB [5][11]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability with a projected net profit of 2.675 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 2.787 billion RMB in 2026 and 3.006 billion RMB in 2027 [5][11]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.4% for the coming years, reflecting effective cost management [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of Zhang Yong as CEO of Haidilao marks the third CEO change in four years, driven by significant challenges in the core hotpot business and the need for strategic realignment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haidilao reported a revenue of 20.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, and a net profit of 1.755 billion yuan, down 13.7% [1]. - The core operating profit for the same period was 2.408 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.0% decrease year-on-year [1]. - Despite the challenges, the total number of Haidilao stores has increased to nearly 1,400, although the average table turnover rate fell to 3.8 times per day, below the internal benchmark of 4 times [1]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Challenges - Haidilao's previous growth model, characterized by exceptional service and rapid expansion, has reached a bottleneck, necessitating a strategic shift [2]. - The multi-brand strategy, including the Red Pomegranate brand with 126 stores, contributed only 5.97 million yuan in revenue, accounting for just 2.9% of total revenue, indicating limited short-term impact on offsetting declines in the core business [2]. - The company faces three major challenges: revitalizing the aging main brand to attract lost customers, managing the complexities of a multi-brand strategy without diluting resources, and addressing the increased management complexity of a diverse restaurant empire [3].

里昂发布研报称，李宁（02331）2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025财年净利润率处于 高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该行预计下一轮估值 重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调至18港元，维 持"持有"评级。 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 责任编辑：史丽君 责任编辑：史丽君 里昂发布研报称，李宁（02331）2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025财年净利润率处于 高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该行预计下一轮估值 重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调至18港元，维 持"持有"评级。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning has reported a slight decline in retail sales for Q4 2025, indicating operational pressure, yet market sentiment remains positive with several brokerages raising their forecasts for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of December 31, 2025, Li Ning's retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) experienced a low single-digit decline year-on-year [1]. - Offline channels, including retail and wholesale, saw a mid-single-digit decline, while e-commerce sales remained flat [1]. - For the first half of 2025, Li Ning's revenue reached 14.817 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, but net profit fell by approximately 11% to 1.737 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - Following the operational update, Li Ning's stock price rose over 5%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning in 2025, with net profit margins expected to stabilize at a high single-digit level [1]. - Analysts from浦银国际 suggest that if Li Ning's brand strength improves and sales trends show clear signs of recovery, the stock price could see significant upward momentum [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel market is characterized by intense competition, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing challenges despite their focus on the region [2]. - Domestic brands such as Anta and 361° are maintaining growth, but increased discounting is eroding profit margins across the industry [2]. - Anta's gross margin declined by 0.7 percentage points to 63.4% in the first half of 2025, highlighting the competitive pressures in the market [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Li Ning has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, launching new products and stores aimed at capturing the mid-to-high-end market segment [4][6]. - The company is also focusing on outdoor retail spaces to penetrate niche markets, indicating a strategy to attract new customer segments [6]. - With the upcoming 2026 Milan Winter Olympics, Li Ning anticipates increased brand exposure and potential sales growth during this period [8].

大华继显发布研报称，对于去年全年，李宁(02331)管理层有信心超越此前指引，收入预期可实现温和 增长，净利润率料将达到高单位数百分比指引的上限。大华继显相信是受到政府补贴胜预期、公司加强 费用管控，以及期内关闭了部分亏损店铺带来成本节省等所推动，并维持李宁"持有"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大华继显发布研报称，对于去年全年，李宁(02331)管理层有信心超越此前指引，收 入预期可实现温和增长，净利润率料将达到高单位数百分比指引的上限。大华继显相信是受到政府补贴 胜预期、公司加强费用管控，以及期内关闭了部分亏损店铺带来成本节省等所推动，并维持李宁"持 有"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing decline in Q4 revenue, with expectations for profit margins in 2025 to exceed forecasts [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, increasing them to 2.68 billion, 2.86 billion, and 3.05 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.96% - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.19 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.58% - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is estimated at 1.23 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 14.43 [1][8] Operational Insights - In Q4, the company's overall retail revenue (excluding young segment) saw a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing middle single-digit and flat year-on-year changes respectively [1] - The company opened its first outdoor store and "Dragon Store" in November and December 2025, respectively, targeting new customer segments [1] - The company aims to improve profitability by closing loss-making stores and enhancing cost efficiency [1]

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，李宁(02331)2025年第四季零售销售表现温和，符合预期， 2025 财年净利润率处于高单位数指引的高位，好过市场预期，但主要因关店以致成本减少以及政府补助。该 行预计下一轮估值重估需要更多证据，以显示公司的新举措能带动零售销售回升。目标价由16港元上调 至18港元，维持"持有"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's overall revenue for Q4 experienced a low single-digit decline, with offline channels showing a moderate decrease while e-commerce remained stable [1] - The company anticipates a slight growth in total revenue for the year 2025, with strong contributions from specialized channels like badminton, which saw over 30% growth in the first three quarters [2] - The company is focusing on core professional sports and outdoor categories for growth, while also optimizing lifestyle products [2] - The sponsorship of the Chinese Olympic Committee is expected to enhance brand confidence and visibility, although translating this into sales will take time [2] Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 29,046 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2,461 million, representing an 18% decline from the previous year [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.95, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.46 [3][5] - The company forecasts net profits of 24.61 billion, 26.83 billion, and 28.44 billion for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，李宁(02331)去年末季营运数据优于市场所忧虑情况，略超去年营 收指引; 净利润率有望接近10%，料今年业绩扭转颓势，并伴随品牌热度提升，以及新产品及门店推 出，基于2026年预测18倍市盈率，重申目标价24港元及"买入"评级。 该信息由智通财经网提供 大和指出，在分析师电话会议中，李宁管理层指2025年营收可能略超先前同比持平之指引，而净利润率 将达到"强劲的高单位数"(接近10%)。这些说法大致符合大和预测，应促使市场共识对预测进行小幅上 调。大和相信李宁的复苏势头正在推进，并重申其作为中国运动服饰品牌的首选标的。 ...