Group 1: Impact of Tax Policy on Bond Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) [1][2] - A dual-track system will be implemented where new bonds are taxed while existing bonds remain exempt until maturity, with a standard tax rate of 6% for corporate entities and a simplified rate of 3% for asset management products [2] Group 2: Short-term Effects on Bond Market - The scarcity premium of tax-exempt existing bonds is expected to increase, leading to a potential decline in their yields, while the spread between newly issued taxable bonds and existing tax-exempt bonds may widen [3] - Market behavior is anticipated to show a phase of differentiation, with arbitrage trading becoming a dominant strategy, favoring a "long old bonds, short new bonds" approach [3] Group 3: Medium to Long-term Market Dynamics - The increased tax burden on interest from rate bonds may alter their yield relative to traditional credit bonds, prompting a reallocation of funds towards other asset classes such as interbank certificates of deposit, credit bonds, REITs, and equities [4] - Demand for taxable bonds through asset management products is expected to rise, while the supply rhythm of financial bonds may adjust accordingly [4] Group 4: Institutional Responses and Market Outlook - Financial institutions are exploring ways to optimize tax management through asset management product structures and adjusting the proportion of assets held to maturity [5] - Key focus areas include the stabilization of prices for tax-exempt existing bonds post-short-term volatility, changes in demand for long-term rate bonds, credit bond spread trends, and the issuance pace of bank certificates of deposit [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Saint Bella with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 9.76, corresponding to a 27X PE for 2026E [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Saint Bella is the largest postpartum care and recovery brand group in Asia and China, with 96 centers in 30 cities globally as of June 2025. The company is expected to achieve a revenue and adjusted net profit CAGR of 28% and 94% from 2025 to 2027, respectively [1][19]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase characterized by stable same-store growth and rapid expansion, leveraging its unique high-end service brand and standardized operational capabilities [1][19]. - The report highlights the company's strategy of horizontal global expansion and vertical integration into family care and women's health food sectors, aiming to enhance its full-cycle family care platform [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Bella recorded a revenue of RMB 798.67 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.64%. The adjusted net profit for the same year is projected at RMB 120.69 million, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a "brand-scale" positive cycle through a unique high-end service model, innovative supply chain management, and effective customer retention strategies. It holds a 1.2% market share, leading the industry [2][3]. - The operational model includes a light-asset approach with flexible leasing and a proprietary nursing team, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [2][21]. Growth Strategy - Short to medium-term focus on domestic and international expansion, with a target of 267-316 centers in China. The company plans to utilize its established brand and operational model to penetrate international markets [3][19]. - Long-term vision includes transforming into a comprehensive family health management platform, with new business segments expected to grow at over 30% annually [3][19]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of RMB 1.21 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of RMB 0.19, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.49 [5][11].

| 成交量(万份) | 成交额(万元) | 相对当日收盘溢价 (%) | 买方营业部 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 200.00 | 23658.00 | 0.15 | 中信证券股份有限 中信证券股份有 （公司上海分公司 公司总部(非营) 公司上海分公司 문 | 2025年8月4日，10年地方债ETF(511270.SH)收涨0.01%，发生1笔溢价大宗交易，成交价为118.29元，较当日收盘价溢价0.15%。成交额为2.37亿元，居全市 场第一。 ...

2025年8月4日，H股ETF（510900.SH）收平，成交4.67亿元。获融资买入7091.14万元，融资偿还 2843.11万元，融资净买入4248.03万元，居可比基金首位。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major commodities with capital inflows include gold (CNY 1.76 billion), silver (CNY 1.71 billion), coking coal (CNY 1.62 billion), bottle flakes (CNY 0.41 billion), and logs (CNY 0.30 billion) [1] - The overall trend shows a substantial inflow into specific commodities, particularly precious metals and certain industrial materials [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Key commodities experiencing capital outflows include palm oil (CNY 3.34 billion), crude oil (CNY 2.85 billion), polysilicon (CNY 2.43 billion), copper (CNY 1.65 billion), and soybean oil (CNY 1.39 billion) [1] - The article notes that the black and non-ferrous metal sectors are also showing slight outflows, with a focus on polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The overall commodity futures market is experiencing a significant outflow, particularly in the agricultural and chemical sectors, with notable attention on palm oil, crude oil, soybean oil, and rubber [1] - Conversely, there is a noteworthy inflow in bottle flakes, logs, and fuel oil, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1] - The financial sector is highlighted with a focus on the 2-year government bonds and the CSI 300 index futures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant revenue growth and profitability in the first half of 2025, driven by its innovative business model and market expansion strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Projections - The company expects to achieve revenue of no less than RMB 448 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of at least 25% [1] - The total revenue, including the income from entrusted management of maternity centers, is projected to be no less than RMB 520 million, reflecting a growth of at least 35% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The anticipated net profit for the reporting period is expected to be no less than RMB 320 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB 480 million in 2024 [1] Group 2: Business Model and Market Strategy - The company operates a light-asset model by collaborating with high-end hotels, which allows for rapid expansion without heavy capital investment [2][3] - The brand matrix includes flagship brand "圣贝拉" for ultra-high-net-worth individuals, "小贝拉" targeting young middle-class consumers, and "艾屿" focusing on psychological healing needs, creating a comprehensive service offering from pregnancy to early childhood [2][3] - The company has expanded its operations to 30 cities in China and international markets including Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles, New York, and Bangkok [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers and Market Position - The maternity care industry is experiencing increasing demand, with a shortage of professional caregivers, allowing leading brands to capture market share through enhanced service quality [3] - The company's revenue grew from RMB 472 million in 2022 to RMB 799 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.1% [2] - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase significantly, with expectations of RMB 21 million in 2023 and RMB 42 million in 2024, indicating improving profitability [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 1.076 billion, RMB 1.403 billion, and RMB 1.777 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.73%, 30.42%, and 26.65% [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are projected to be RMB 315 million, RMB 406 million, and RMB 478 million, with substantial growth rates [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from economies of scale and improved operating margins as it continues to expand its market presence [4]

详见PDF ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of non-monetary ETFs reached 322.23 billion yuan, with 63 ETFs exceeding 1 billion yuan in trading volume, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1]. Trading Volume and Performance - The top three ETFs by trading volume are Short-term Bond ETF (250.44 billion yuan), Credit Bond ETF (164.02 billion yuan), and Sci-Tech Bond ETF (119.60 billion yuan) [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the Short-term Bond ETF over the last 5 days is 28.98 billion yuan, showing a notable increase in activity [2]. - The Credit Bond ETF experienced a trading volume increase of 165.75% compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened investor interest [2]. - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF also saw a significant trading volume increase of 310.59% compared to the previous trading day [3]. Turnover Rates - The highest turnover rates were recorded for 0-4 Year Local Debt ETF (180.59%), 5-Year Local Debt ETF (127.52%), and National Debt ETF (124.64%) [7]. - The turnover rate for the Sci-Tech Bond ETF reached 113.99%, reflecting strong trading activity [7]. ETF Characteristics - The Short-term Bond ETF tracks the China Bond Short-term Index, focusing on investment-grade short-term bonds [1]. - The Credit Bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Market Company Bond Index, reflecting the performance of liquid bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2]. - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF tracks the AAA Sci-Tech Bond Index, representing technology innovation company bonds [2]. Industry Themes - The industry-themed ETFs include Hong Kong Securities ETF and Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, indicating a focus on specific sectors within the market [1]. - The Gaming ETF and Aerospace ETF are also highlighted, with the Gaming ETF tracking the Animation and Gaming Index, which includes major companies in the media sector [8]. Volatility and Price Movements - The Gaming ETF experienced a price increase of 3.17% with a notable volatility of 72.10% compared to the previous trading day [8]. - The Aerospace ETF also showed a significant price increase of 3.45% with a volatility increase of 148.94% [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of no less than RMB 448 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of no less than 25%. The total revenue, including the income from the entrusted management of maternity centers, is projected to be no less than RMB 520 million, reflecting a growth of no less than 35% compared to the same period in 2024. The company anticipates a net profit of no less than RMB 320 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB 480 million in 2024 [5][6] Company Overview - The company was established in 2017, starting with the first maternity center in Hangzhou, and has positioned itself in the postpartum care market with a high-end focus. It employs a "high-end hotel + professional care" light asset model, collaborating with top hotels to lease space, thus avoiding heavy capital investments typical of traditional standalone models [6][7] - The company has expanded its brand portfolio and global strategy since 2018, creating a pyramid matrix with flagship brand "Saint Bella" targeting ultra-high-net-worth individuals, "Little Bella" aimed at young middle-class consumers, and "Aiyu" focusing on psychological healing needs. It has also acquired the brand "Guanghetang" to enter the functional food sector for women and launched the family care brand "Yujia" to extend services from maternity centers to postpartum recovery and early childhood care, forming a "pregnancy-birth-raising" closed loop [6][7] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 472 million to RMB 799 million, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.1%. The core driver of this growth is the maternity center business, which accounts for 85% of total revenue. The adjusted net profit is projected to turn from a loss in 2022 to a profit in 2023 and 2024, with adjusted net profits of RMB 21 million and RMB 42 million respectively [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.076 billion, RMB 1.403 billion, and RMB 1.777 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.73%, 30.42%, and 26.65%. The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is RMB 315 million, RMB 406 million, and RMB 478 million, reflecting significant growth [9][11]

2025年8月1日，军工ETF（512660.SH）收跌1.60%，成交9.21亿元。获融券卖出430.37万元，融券偿还 21.65万元，融券净卖出408.72万元，居全市场第一。 ...