Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices despite ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting that the worst of market sentiment has passed and prices are expected to trend upwards [2][11] - For copper, the supply-demand dynamics remain tight, and there are opportunities for low-position equity investments despite short-term volatility [3][12] - The aluminum market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a focus on downstream inventory replenishment and the impact of macroeconomic factors [14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile but trend upwards due to easing trade tensions and ongoing economic concerns [2][11] - Copper demand remains strong, with high operating rates in production and a supportive supply side despite recent disruptions [3][12] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.85%, underperforming the broader market [15] - The top-performing sub-sectors include rare earths and magnetic materials, while lithium and aluminum showed declines [15] 3. Metal Prices and Inventories 3.1. New Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are stable, while lithium prices have decreased, indicating a mixed market for these metals [25][28] 3.2. Base Metals - Base metal prices have generally declined, with specific price movements noted for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [35][37] 3.3. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.8% to $3319 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 2.1% to $32.83 per ounce [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing significant growth driven by rising metal prices, with several leading companies reporting strong performance in 2024 and maintaining rapid growth in the first quarter of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of approximately 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2024, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 78.93 billion yuan, a 5.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 62.39% growth [2]. - China Aluminum's revenue for 2024 reached 237.07 billion yuan, a 5.21% increase, with a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2024, China Aluminum's revenue was 55.78 billion yuan, a 13.95% increase, and the net profit was 3.54 billion yuan, up 58.78% [2]. - Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.37% increase, with a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue was 46.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25%, while the net profit increased by 90.47% to 3.95 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry is benefiting from high prices of metals like gold and copper, leading to sustained high growth in revenues and profits for major companies [2][5]. - The market outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, despite recent fluctuations, with expectations of a strong performance driven by inflation and weakening dollar credit [6][7]. - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage in the medium term, with demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles driving prices upward [7]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to improve, with a potential rise in prices due to recovering profits from electrolytic aluminum and increasing demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has experienced significant growth in performance driven by rising metal prices, particularly in gold and copper [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry has shown high growth, with several listed companies maintaining rapid growth in Q1 2024 [2][4]. - Major companies like Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Luoyang Molybdenum have reported substantial increases in revenue and net profit for 2024 [4][6]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Zijin Mining achieved approximately 303.64 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with a net profit of about 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% [4][6]. - In Q1 2024, Zijin Mining's revenue was 78.93 billion yuan, growing by 5.55%, and net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, an increase of 62.39% [4][6]. - China Aluminum reported 2024 revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a 5.21% increase, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% [4][6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue for 2024 was 213.03 billion yuan, a 14.37% increase, with a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [4][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term price trends of gold and copper, despite short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical factors [8][9][10]. - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles driving prices upward [10]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to improve, with potential profit recovery for electrolytic aluminum as demand increases [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) H/A shares, with target prices adjusted to HKD6.10 for H-shares and RMB9.80 for A-shares, implying upside potentials of approximately 42% and 48% respectively [5][40]. Core Insights - Chalco reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of approximately RMB3.5 billion in 1Q25, reflecting a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 59% year-on-year increase, attributed to better-than-expected sales volume and average selling prices (ASP) for aluminum and alumina [1][9]. - The company expects capital expenditures of RMB14.8 billion in 2025, focusing on wind power projects and new alumina production sites, while aiming to increase green power usage from 47% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [2][9]. - Despite solid fundamentals for aluminum, earnings are expected to decline by approximately 12% in 2025 due to lower alumina prices, with the alumina price already below breakeven levels [3][9]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Chalco's sales volumes for self-produced aluminum decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, while alumina sales increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter. However, revenue and gross profits fell by 12% and 29% quarter-on-quarter respectively due to a significant drop in alumina prices [1][31]. - The company recorded a decrease in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses by 6% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1][31]. - Investment income rose by RMB0.37 billion in 1Q25, driven by higher alumina prices year-on-year and gains from hedging [36]. Production and Operational Strategy - Chalco's aluminum production operating rate reached 95% in China, supported by demand from electric vehicles, batteries, and solar products [3][9]. - The company plans to relocate alumina production from inland to coastal provinces to reduce transportation costs and expects to close down 1-2 million tons of alumina production in 2025 [2][34]. - Chalco aims to optimize its alumina capacity of 25 million tons by utilizing lower-cost imported bauxite, which may lead to some impairment losses [34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates steady aluminum prices in 2025, supported by robust demand from the "New Three" sectors, while alumina prices are expected to have limited downside due to their current low levels [3][9]. - The coal price and electricity costs remained weak in 1Q25, which may benefit Chalco's operational costs [3][9].

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临 2025-027 中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 9 日披露了《中国 铝业股份有限公司关于控股股东及其一致行动人增持公司股份计划的公告》（公告 编号：临 2025-022），基于对公司未来发展前景的信心，并为切实维护中小投资者 利益，公司控股股东中国铝业集团有限公司（以下简称"中铝集团"）及其一致行 动人拟通过上海证券交易所（以下简称"上交所"）及香港联合交易所有限公司（以 下简称"香港联交所"）交易系统增持公司 A 股及 H 股股份，增持金额不低于人民 币 10 亿元，不超过人民币 20 亿元，增持股份数量不超过公司总股本的 2%，期限自 本次增持计划公告披露之日起不超过 12 个月，本次增持资金来源为增持主体自有资 金或金融机构增持股票专项贷款（以下简称"专项贷款"）。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市后收到控股股东中铝集团的通知，截至 2025 年 4 月 29 日，中铝集团及其一致行动人通过上交所及香港联交所交易系统以自有资金和 专项贷款累计增持公司 A 股股份 53,971,083 股，增持金额约人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the A-share non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing a renewed interest from actively managed equity funds, particularly in gold and copper sectors, driven by external economic factors and a favorable outlook for gold prices [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q1 2025, actively managed equity funds increased their holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry, with the market value of heavy holdings rising to 2.18% of total stock investments, up from 1.76% in Q4 2024, marking a 0.42 percentage point increase after two consecutive quarters of reduction [2]. - The main focus of fund replenishment in Q1 2025 was on the gold and copper sectors, with respective market value proportions of 0.44% and 0.85% of total fund stock investments, reflecting increases of 0.18 percentage points for gold and 0.18 percentage points for copper compared to Q4 2024 [3]. Group 2: Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the A-share non-ferrous metal industry increased, with the top 10 stocks accounting for 73.23% of the total market value of heavy holdings, up 3 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. - The top stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining, Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and others, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Chuangjiang New Materials [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing U.S. tariff increases and the resulting economic uncertainties may lead to a sustained rise in gold prices, which are expected to stabilize around $3,000 per ounce, thereby enhancing the performance and cash flow of gold companies [1][5]. - There is significant room for increased holdings in the A-share gold sector, as current positions remain below the high levels seen in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating potential for further investment [5]. - The report recommends focusing on stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold sector, as well as high-dividend, low-valuation leaders in the copper and aluminum sectors like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum for medium to long-term investment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - Gold remains in a bull market despite short-term fluctuations due to easing US-China trade tensions and concerns over Federal Reserve independence [9][10]. - Copper prices are stabilizing, presenting opportunities for low-position equity investments, supported by demand and supply-side disruptions [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Insights - Gold: The bull market is not over. Short-term price adjustments are normal due to market reactions to US-China trade dynamics and Federal Reserve concerns. The underlying bullish logic for gold remains intact, with expectations of continued inflows of capital in the long term [9]. - Copper: Prices are showing signs of stabilization, with demand supported by increased operating rates and supply disruptions. The report suggests focusing on equity assets for long-term investment [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.59%, outperforming the broader market by 1.03%. Gold led the sector with a 4.58% increase [13]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - Basic metals prices generally increased, with SHFE copper rising to 77,640 CNY/ton and LME copper reaching 9,360 USD/ton. The report highlights a decrease in inventories for several metals, indicating a tightening supply [34][39]. - Precious metals saw a decline in gold prices by 0.9% to 3,298 USD/oz, while silver prices increased by 1.7% to 33.01 USD/oz [48].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 55.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.86% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.538 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.56% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 3.444 billion yuan, up 57.78% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales - The company produced 1.94 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and 4.48 million tons of alumina, up 5.4% year-on-year [1]. - The external sales volume of alumina reached 1.68 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [1]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,400 yuan/ton, up 7.3% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter; the average price of alumina was 3,863 yuan/ton, up 15.4% year-on-year but down 27.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross profit margin was 15.86%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year but a decrease of 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Operating cash flow reached 6.260 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.06%, driven by increased operating profit and improved cash flow management [2]. - The company’s expense ratio was 3.86%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [2]. Project Development and Resource Management - Key projects, including the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II alumina project and Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III electrolytic aluminum project, have been put into operation, enhancing resource security [2]. - The company has increased its supply of bauxite resources, with production and shipment from its Guinea mine rising by 8.18% and 27.89% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 10.913 billion yuan, 12.690 billion yuan, and 13.896 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -11.99%, +16.28%, and +9.50% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.64 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.81 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.4, 8.9, and 8.2 times [3].

金融界4月25日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪深300金属与采矿指数 (300金属与采矿，L11606) 报2380.65点。 数据统计显示，沪深300金属与采矿指数近一个月下跌4.75%，近三个月上涨3.70%，年至今上涨 7.50%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同细分行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪 深300指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为10个一级行业、26个二级行业、70余个三级行业及100多个四 级行业。沪深300细分行业指数系列分别以进入各二级、三级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成 沪深300细分行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 从指数持仓来看，沪深300金属与采矿指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（31.22%）、北方稀土 （6.24%）、宝钢股份（6.15%）、山东黄金（6.06%）、中国铝业（5.51%）、洛阳钼业（5.35%）、华 友钴业（4.87%）、中金黄金（4.43%）、包钢股份（4.29%）、赣锋锂业（3.72%）。 从沪深300金属与采矿指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比82.17%、深圳证券交易所占 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 55.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a gross margin of 16% and a net profit of 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a year-on-year increase in production of key products [1] - The company is focusing on resource development and supply security, aiming to enhance its mining capacity and create a self-controlled mineral resource supply chain [2] - The company is advancing its "Two Seas" strategy, with new projects in alumina and electrolytic aluminum contributing to its competitive edge in the industry [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 14.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 8.8, and 7.5 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, alumina production reached 5.43 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year, while electrolytic aluminum production was 1.94 million tons, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,400 yuan per ton, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while alumina averaged 3,833 yuan per ton, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 225.3 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 222.3 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase its domestic mineral rights exploration and actively participate in the competition for mineral rights in key provinces [2] - New projects include the construction of several alumina and aluminum alloy projects, as well as renewable energy initiatives, with a target of achieving a 45.5% clean energy consumption ratio in electrolytic aluminum production [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.6% [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 111.17 billion yuan, with a total share count of 17.16 billion shares [5]