Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its potential for revenue growth and profitability improvements [2][7] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by its integration with Taotian, which is expected to enhance customer ARPU and attract new clients [2][5] - Cost reduction measures have significantly improved profitability, with adjusted net profit increasing by 205.1% YoY in 2024Q3 [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 180.3 billion, 196.0 billion, and 211.2 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 4.0%, 4.1%, and 4.2% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024Q3, the company's total revenue reached 44.4 billion RMB, a 6.6% YoY increase [5] - Integrated supply chain revenue was 20.7 billion RMB, with internal revenue from JD Group growing 8.1% YoY to 12.79 billion RMB, while external revenue was 7.87 billion RMB, with customer numbers up 9.4% but ARPU down 7.4% [5] - Other customer revenue grew 7.6% YoY to 23.7 billion RMB, supported by improved service capabilities and expanded air routes [5] Cost Efficiency - In 2024Q3, employee benefits, outsourcing costs, rental costs, depreciation, and other operating costs were 14.6 billion, 15.0 billion, 3.1 billion, 1.1 billion, and 5.4 billion RMB, respectively, with changes of +4.8%, +2.7%, 0.0%, +10.0%, and -5.3% YoY [6] - Gross margin improved to 11.7%, up 3.8 percentage points YoY, driven by automation, optimized vehicle scheduling, and network structure improvements [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance service quality by increasing transportation routes and frontline staff, while exploring opportunities in industrial belts [7] - Integration with Taotian is expected to provide a new revenue stream, contributing to future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HK$20.67, representing a 39% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [2][3] - The target price has been revised upward by 17% from the previous target of HK$17.68 [5] Core Views - JD Logistics demonstrated strong profitability in 3Q24, with non-IFRS net profit margin increasing to 5.2% from 1.3% in 3Q23, driven by efficiency improvements despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company's adjusted net profit surged 313% YoY in 3Q24, supported by robust margin expansion, particularly in gross margin [10] - Access to Tmall/Taobao merchants and overseas expansion are identified as two key long-term growth drivers [9][11] - JD Logistics plans to double its self-operated warehousing space for international business by 2025, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific region [11] Financial Performance - Revenue grew 6.6% YoY in 3Q24, with revenue from JD Group and third-party channels increasing by 8.1% and 5.9% respectively [11] - Gross margin improved to 10.6% in 2024E, up from 7.6% in 2023A, reflecting the company's efficiency initiatives [13][20] - Adjusted EPS for 2024E/2025E/2026E has been revised upward by 36.2%/24.4%/20.4% to RMB 0.93/1.07/1.19 [5][20] - The company's adjusted net profit margin is expected to reach 3.3% in 2024E, up from 2.4% previously forecasted [20] Valuation - The target price of HK$20.67 is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [21][22] - JD Logistics is currently trading at a 28.0% discount to the revised target price, with a 2024E P/E of 14.6x and 2025E P/E of 12.6x [21] Industry Outlook - The logistics industry remains highly competitive, but JD Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from its access to Tmall/Taobao platforms, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [11] - The company's international business, though relatively small, is expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth with manageable capital expenditure [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (02618) [3] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved record-high profitability in Q3 2024, driven by cost optimization and external order growth [3] - External orders remain the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.20% of total revenue [6] - The company's net profit surged 438.15% YoY to RMB 2.445 billion in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Performance Revenue - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 44.396 billion, up 6.56% YoY [3] - Internal revenue from JD Group grew 8.13% YoY to RMB 12.788 billion, accounting for 28.80% of total revenue [6] - External revenue increased 5.94% YoY to RMB 31.608 billion [6] Profitability - Net profit attributable to shareholders skyrocketed 928.77% YoY to RMB 2.205 billion [3] - Non-IFRS profit rose 205.14% YoY to RMB 2.573 billion [3] - Gross profit margin improved by 3.79 percentage points to 11.71% [10] Cost Structure - Operating costs increased 2.18% YoY to RMB 39.198 billion, lower than revenue growth [11] - Outsourcing costs as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.26 percentage points [11] Business Segments External Integrated Supply Chain - Revenue grew 1.23% YoY to RMB 7.875 billion, representing 17.74% of total revenue [6] - Customer base expanded 9.36% YoY to 59,300 [6] Pure Distribution Business - Revenue increased 7.60% YoY to RMB 23.733 billion, accounting for 53.46% of total revenue [6] - Deppon contributed RMB 9.850 billion, up 1.03% YoY [6] - Non-Deppon revenue grew 12.80% YoY to RMB 13.883 billion [6] Future Outlook - Revenue is projected to grow 9%, 8%, and 7% in 2024-2026, reaching RMB 182.424 billion, RMB 196.535 billion, and RMB 211.010 billion respectively [12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase 1035%, 10%, and 10% in 2024-2026 [12] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted at 13.03x, 11.83x, and 10.80x for 2024-2026 [12]

Incident Overview - A fire broke out at the Wuxi Yutai Logistics Park Phase II Warehouse No 5 on November 12, 2024, at 22:00, and was quickly controlled and extinguished by firefighters with no casualties or spread to surrounding warehouses [1] - The warehouse involved was a storage facility, not a sorting or operational warehouse, and contained low-value daily necessities, with no mobile phones or express packages [1][2] Company Response - JD Logistics issued a statement refuting online rumors about the fire, including claims of billions of dollars worth of mobile phones being destroyed, the entire logistics park being devastated, and the use of temporary workers smoking on the job [1][2] - The company has reported the rumors to the police and urged the public not to create, spread, or believe in such misinformation [2] Operational Impact - The logistics park has gradually resumed normal operations, and local JD Logistics services in Wuxi remain unaffected, ensuring that consumer deliveries are not impacted [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting expectations of significant growth in the next 6-12 months [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 130.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.5% YoY increase, with a net profit of RMB 4.47 billion, turning from a loss to a profit [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue reached RMB 44.4 billion, up 6.6% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 2.2 billion, a 929% YoY increase [2] - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts have significantly enhanced profitability, with Q3 gross margin increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 11.7% [2] - The company has expanded its overseas presence by opening new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, and has partnered with Taotian Group to integrate with the Taobao and Tmall platforms [2] Financial Performance - Revenue from JD Group grew by 8.1% in Q3 2024, higher than the overall growth rate, driven by growth in fast-moving consumer goods, 3C, and apparel sectors [2] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers reached RMB 20.7 billion in Q3 2024, with internal JD Group revenue growing 8.1% and external revenue growing 1.2% [2] - Other customer revenue increased by 7.6% to RMB 23.7 billion, mainly due to increased business volume in express and freight services [2] - Operating costs in Q3 2024 were RMB 39.2 billion, up only 2.2% YoY, reflecting improved operational efficiency and cost control [2] Future Projections - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to RMB 6.7 billion, RMB 7.7 billion, and RMB 8.8 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of RMB 4.6 billion, RMB 5.2 billion, and RMB 5.9 billion [2] - Revenue growth is expected to slow to 9.63% in 2024, 5.70% in 2025, and 5.89% in 2026, reflecting a maturing market [4] - Net profit growth is projected to be 984.16% in 2024, 15.13% in 2025, and 14.24% in 2026, indicating strong profitability improvements [4] Operational Efficiency - The company's operating costs in Q3 2024 were driven by a 4.8% increase in employee compensation, reflecting workforce expansion [2] - Gross profit in Q3 2024 was RMB 5.2 billion, up 57% YoY, with a net profit margin increasing by 4.5 percentage points to 5% [2] - The company's ROE is expected to improve significantly, reaching 12.17% in 2024, 12.29% in 2025, and 12.30% in 2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has integrated with Taobao and Tmall platforms, allowing consumers to track JD Logistics shipments within the Taobao and Tmall apps, which is expected to boost business volume [2] - Overseas expansion continues with new warehouses in Malaysia and the US, enhancing global logistics capabilities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current closing price of HKD 14.92 [1][4][7]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a strong performance in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with a projected net profit of over RMB 2 billion for Q4, corresponding to a profit margin of over 4% [1][2]. - The company is expected to enter a relatively stable profit margin phase in 2025, with a projected adjusted net profit of RMB 7.9 billion for 2024, reflecting a 30% increase from previous estimates [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's cost reduction strategies, including product upgrades, network optimization, and increased automation, which have significantly improved profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, JD Logistics achieved a revenue of RMB 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a gross profit margin improvement of nearly 4 percentage points to 12% [1][5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was RMB 2.6 billion, approximately double the previous year, resulting in a net profit margin of 5.8%, the highest quarterly level since the company went public [1][3]. - The report projects total revenue for 2024 to reach RMB 180.83 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4% [2][9]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 has been increased to RMB 7.9 billion, with a profit margin of 4.4%, and for 2025, the adjusted net profit is projected at RMB 7.9 billion [3][9]. - Revenue estimates for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with 2024 revenue expected at RMB 180.83 billion and 2025 at RMB 193.08 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - JD Logistics' market capitalization is approximately HKD 98.86 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 52.56% [4][5]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 16.34 and a low of HKD 6.80, indicating significant volatility and growth potential [4][5].

Financial Performance - For the three months ended September 30, 2024, JD Logistics reported revenue of RMB 44,395,616 thousand, a 6.6% increase from RMB 41,662,646 thousand in the same period of 2023[2] - The non-IFRS net profit for the third quarter of 2024 reached RMB 2,572,583 thousand, reflecting a significant increase of 205.1% compared to RMB 843,078 thousand in the same quarter of 2023[2] - The gross profit for the third quarter of 2024 was RMB 5,197,449 thousand, up 57.5% from RMB 3,300,429 thousand year-over-year[2] - The company achieved a non-IFRS EBITDA of RMB 5,726,417 thousand for the third quarter of 2024, compared to RMB 3,834,399 thousand in the same period of 2023, marking a 49.3% increase[2] - Revenue from JD Group reached RMB 12.79 billion, accounting for 28.8% of total revenue, while revenue from others was RMB 31.61 billion, making up 71.2%[10] - Operating costs increased by 2.2% to RMB 39.2 billion, with the percentage of operating costs to revenue decreasing by 3.8 percentage points to 88.3%[11] - Gross profit rose from RMB 3.3 billion to RMB 5.2 billion, with gross margin increasing from 7.9% to 11.7%[13] - Net profit increased significantly from RMB 500 million to RMB 2.4 billion, primarily due to the increase in gross profit[17] - Free cash flow for the period was RMB 2.7 billion, up from RMB 2.1 billion in the same period last year[22] - Total cash resources amounted to RMB 47.1 billion as of September 30, 2024[21] Customer and Market Growth - The number of external integrated supply chain customers increased from 54,212 to 59,286, contributing to a 5.4% rise in revenue from integrated supply chain customers to RMB 20,662,768 thousand[8] - Revenue from other customers increased by 7.6% to RMB 23,732,848 thousand, driven primarily by growth in express delivery services[8] Operational Developments - JD Logistics opened new warehouses in Malaysia and the United States in Q3 2024, enhancing its global logistics network and service capabilities[3] - The company’s warehousing network now includes over 1,600 self-operated warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party operated cloud warehouses, covering nearly all counties in China[4] Expenditures and Investments - The company’s total human resources expenditure reached RMB 87 billion for the twelve months ending September 30, 2024, reflecting its commitment to job creation and social contribution[4] - Research and development expenses remained stable at RMB 912.7 million compared to RMB 866.5 million in the previous year[15] - Sales and marketing expenses were stable at RMB 1.4 billion for both periods[14] - The company maintained stable rental costs at RMB 3.1 billion for both periods[11] Sustainability and Recognition - JD Logistics was recognized in the S&P Global 2024 Sustainability Yearbook as an industry best performer in corporate sustainability assessment[4] Corporate Governance - The board expresses gratitude to all employees, customers, and business partners for their continued support and trust[23] - The board includes executive director Hu Wei, non-executive director Liu Qiangdong, and independent non-executive directors Gu Yi, Zhao Xiande, Zhang Yang, and Ye Lin[24]

研究报告 Research Report [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$14.86 目标价 HK$19.91 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$98.46bn / US$12.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$20.91mn 发行股票数目 6,626mn 自由流通股 (%) 36% 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 45.1% 78.6% 56.4% 绝对值（美元） 45.5% 79.4% 57.4% 相对 MSCI China 28.0% 65.0% 41.6% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 166,625 176,002 194,821 215,303 Revenue (+/-) 21% 6% 11% 11% Net profit 2,761 6,788 11,5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price raised to HK$17.68 from HK$15.79, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$14.00 [1][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics is expected to see a continued improvement in profit margins, with a projected increase of 2.1 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year adjusted net profit growth of 65% in Q3 2024 [1]. - Revenue growth for Q3 2024 is anticipated to be slightly below previous forecasts due to a weak macroeconomic environment, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company’s gross margin is projected to rise to 10.0% in Q3 2024, up from 7.9% in Q3 2023, driven by operational efficiencies and cost control measures [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 178,442 million, reflecting a 7.1% growth compared to 2023 [2]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 4,291 million, representing a 116.1% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be RMB 0.68, up from RMB 0.61, marking a 12.5% increase [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers is expected to grow by 7.6% in 2024, while revenue from related parties is projected to increase by 6.0% [2]. - The contribution from JD Group is anticipated to be RMB 53,067 million in 2024, while revenue from other sources is expected to reach RMB 125,375 million [2]. Valuation - The report employs a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, maintaining a WACC of 12.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a discount of 21% to the adjusted target price, with a P/E ratio of 18.7 for 2024 and a CAGR of 20.5% for EPS from 2024 to 2026 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, JD Logistics (2618 HK), with a target price raised from HKD 11.30 to HKD 16.30, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a revenue increase of 6% year-on-year for Q3 2024, reaching RMB 44.2 billion, which aligns with previous expectations. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 10.9 billion, a 29% increase year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 51% [1][6]. - The improved profit margins are attributed to operational efficiency enhancements, including better space utilization, cost control in transportation, and optimized product mix and pricing strategies [1][6]. - The anticipated collaboration with Taobao for the 2024 Double Eleven event is expected to boost business volume growth, particularly in supply chain and logistics services [2][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 137.4 billion, with projections of RMB 166.6 billion for 2023 and RMB 180.6 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 21.3% and 8.4% respectively [5][11]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 2.8 billion, increasing to RMB 6.1 billion in 2024, with a corresponding net profit margin of 3.4% [5][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 88.9 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 37.22% [4][11].