消息面上，因特朗普"美元溜溜球"言论及美日干预汇市预期，美元跌至四月新低，铝价升至近四年来新 高。兴业证券近期研报指出，需双线主导，铝进入紧缺周期，叠加较低的库存，支撑铝价中枢抬升。中 国电解铝企业具备全球竞争力、正将行业红利转化为股东回报。看好铝价中枢抬升，铝价每上涨10%， 将带来约30%的EPS增厚，质量与周期共振，看好电解铝板块价值重估。推荐公司中国宏桥、中国铝 业，关注创新实业、南山铝业国际。 智通财经APP获悉，铝业股再度走高，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨13.32%，报15.14港元；南山铝业 国际(02610)涨7.74%，报72.4港元；中国宏桥(01378)涨6.99%，报40.1港元；创新实业(02788)涨2.78%， 报28.14港元。 ...

Group 1 - Aluminum stocks have risen significantly, with Rusal (00486) up 14.81% to HKD 6.9, China Aluminum (601600) (02600) up 4.55% to HKD 13.79, China Hongqiao (01378) up 2.57% to HKD 36.78, and Innovation Industry (02788) up 2.38% to HKD 27.48 [1] - Citigroup has released a report indicating that a structural bull market for aluminum is forming, driven by domestic demand recovery, which is expected to support aluminum consumption growth into early 2026 [1] - Citigroup forecasts a slight structural deficit of 61,000 tons in 2026, raising the 0-3 month aluminum price target from USD 2,950 per ton to USD 3,400 per ton [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities maintains a positive outlook on the electrolytic aluminum sector, predicting average profits in the industry to be around CNY 7,600 per ton this week, with expectations for sustained high profits in the future [1] - The report highlights that electrolytic aluminum companies are entering a phase of cash flow recovery and stable profitability, which enhances their ability and willingness to return capital to shareholders [1] - The low capital expenditure intensity expected in the industry suggests that the dividend-paying attributes of listed companies in the electrolytic aluminum sector are becoming more pronounced [1]

智通财经APP获悉，铝业股再度走高，截至发稿，俄铝(00486)涨14.81%，报6.9港元；中国铝业(02600) 涨4.55%，报13.79港元；中国宏桥(01378)涨2.57%，报36.78港元；创新实业(02788)涨2.38%，报27.48港 元。 消息面上，花旗近日发布报告称，铝市场的结构性牛市正在形成，国内铝需求的"前置"与复苏为2026年 初的铝消费提供增量支撑。同时，基本面从供应约束到结构性短缺，花旗预计2026年出现6.1万吨的小 幅结构性缺口， 并将铝价0-3个月目标价从2950美元/吨上调至3400美元/吨。 华创证券则表示，持续看好电解铝红利属性，预计本周电解铝行业平均利润在7600元/吨附近，预计未 来电解铝利润有望维持高位。从分红意愿看，因为这几年电解铝企业总体进入现金流持续修复和盈利稳 定性提升的阶段，并且由于行业未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意 愿，红利资产属性逐步凸显，看好电解铝行业弹性和红利属性。 ...

创新实业 20260123 摘要 创新实业的发展历程和财务状况如何？ 公司成立以来发展迅速，大股东最初从事铝加工业务，是全球最大的铝棒和铝 杆供应商之一，并且是苹果手机壳核心供应商之一。从 2012 年开始，公司进 入了电解铝领域，但由于国家供给侧改革，不得不花费大量资金购买生产指标， 总计约 100 亿元。尽管如此，公司仍坚持扩张，目前已拥有 79 万吨满产能力， 并计划在沙特建设 50 万吨的新项目，预计到 2027 年投产。这些快速扩张导 致公司的资产负债率较高，但也带来了显著成长性。 请介绍一下创新实业的基本情况及其成本优势。 创新实业于 2025 年 11 月在港股上市，预计将在 2026 年 3 月纳入通行。公司 拥有 300 万吨的氧化铝产能位于山东，79 万吨的电解铝产能位于内蒙古东部。 其显著特点是成本低廉。山东的氧化铝生产主要依赖进口铝土矿，内陆运输费 用较低，比河南和山西等高成本地区低至少 200 元每吨。此外，公司在内蒙古 东部利用当地丰富且价格低廉的褐煤发电，使得电解铝生产成本大幅降低。目 前采购价格为 0.088 元/大卡，折算成标准煤约 600 多元每吨，比环保动力煤 便宜两三百 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company has established a high self-sufficiency and synergistic integrated ecosystem in the electrolytic aluminum industry, focusing on green aluminum transformation and global market expansion, which enhances its risk resilience and performance stability [5]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a production capacity of 788,100 tons per year, and is strategically located in Inner Mongolia [4][13]. - The global and domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, with a projected increase in global demand from 74 million tons in 2025 to 77 million tons in 2028 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2012 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focusing on the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, gradually building an integrated industrial layout [13]. - The company has seen rapid growth in revenue and net profit, with revenues of 13.49 billion, 13.81 billion, and 15.16 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, and net profits of 880 million, 1 billion, and 2.06 billion RMB respectively [19][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [36]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 788,100 tons per year, with a high capacity utilization rate of over 95% [49][58]. - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated, with prices of 17,572, 16,174, and 17,120 RMB per ton from 2022 to 2024, while production costs have decreased significantly [60][66]. Alumina Business - The company has a current alumina production capacity of 1.2 million tons in Shandong, with plans to enhance its supply capabilities through the construction of a 1.5 million ton per year aluminum hydroxide production facility [76][81]. - The global alumina demand is projected to grow from 142 million tons in 2025 to 149 million tons in 2028, with China being the largest consumer [71]. Global Expansion and Green Transformation - The company is initiating a global strategy by planning to invest in a 500,000 tons per year electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, targeting markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe [4][5]. - The company is also constructing a large-scale wind and solar power station in Inner Mongolia to increase its green energy ratio, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions associated with aluminum production [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has established a high self-sufficiency and synergistic integrated ecosystem in the electrolytic aluminum industry, focusing on green aluminum transformation and global market expansion, which enhances its risk resilience and performance stability [5]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a production capacity of 788,100 tons per year, and is strategically located in Inner Mongolia, benefiting from abundant coal resources [4][13][49]. - The global and domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles and high-end manufacturing, with a projected increase in global demand from 74 million tons in 2025 to 77 million tons in 2028 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2012 in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focusing on the production of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, gradually building an integrated industrial layout [13]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth, with revenues of 13.49 billion, 13.81 billion, and 15.16 billion RMB from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 6% [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by a production cap of approximately 45 million tons per year, leading to a tight supply-demand balance [36]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 788,100 tons per year, with a high capacity utilization rate of over 95% [49][58]. - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated, with prices of 17,572, 16,174, and 17,120 RMB per ton from 2022 to 2024, while production costs have decreased due to falling raw material prices [60][66]. Alumina Business - The company has a current alumina production capacity of 1.2 million tons in Shandong, with plans to enhance its supply capabilities through the construction of a 1.5 million ton per year hydroxide aluminum production facility [76][81]. - The global alumina demand is projected to grow from 142 million tons in 2025 to 149 million tons in 2028, with China being the largest consumer [71]. Global Expansion and Green Transformation - The company is initiating a global strategy by planning to invest in a 500,000 ton per year electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, targeting markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe [4][5]. - The company is also constructing a large-scale wind and solar power station in Inner Mongolia to increase its green energy ratio, which is expected to significantly reduce carbon emissions associated with aluminum production [4].

机构：国信证券 研究员：刘孟峦/焦方冉 盈利预测与估值：公司电解铝产量持续提升，绿电并网进一步降本，充分享受铝价上涨所带来的利润弹 性，预计2025-2027 年归属母公司净利润31.0/50.3/67.4 亿元，利润年增速分别为51%/63%/34%。每股收 益分别为1.49/2.43/3.25 元。通过多角度估值，考虑到公司未来5 年业绩高增长，给予公司2026 年12-15 倍PE 估值，得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7 元人民币，对应675-844 亿元市值，相较当前市值有 24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 风险提示：铝价下跌风险；项目建设进度不达预期风险；国外电解铝快速增加导致行业供需格局变差风 险；铝土矿、煤炭、预焙阳极价格上涨风险。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低 廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧化铝成本优势在200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于 蒙东霍林河地区，使用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅度小于 市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆 ...

蒙东1750MW绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低碳和降本两个目标 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网，发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度，远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后，绿电年发电量超过55亿度，占公司电解铝用电量50%，公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电，一半来自低成本褐煤发电，电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下，公司电解铝成本将大幅下降，成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，通过多角度估值，考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增 长，给予公司2026年12-15倍PE估值，得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币，对应675-844亿元 市值，相较当前市值有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 国信证券主要观点如下： 背景 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012年，十几年间在蒙东霍林 河建成6330MW燃煤自备电机组和78.8万吨电解铝产能，在山东滨州建成300万吨氧化铝产能，于2025 年11月在港交所上市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领 ...

国信证券发布研报称，通过多角度估值，考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增长，给予公司2026年 12-15倍PE估值，得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币，对应675-844亿元市值，相较当前市值 有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网，发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度，远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后，绿电年发电量超过55亿度，占公司电解铝用电量50%，公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电，一半来自低成本褐煤发电，电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下，公司电解铝成本将大幅下降，成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 国信证券主要观点如下： 公司凭借下游深加工业务优势，成功在沙特落地铝产业链项目，一期50万吨电解铝预计2027年左右投 产。沙特电费低廉，高耗能行业电费仅3.2美分/度，相当于国内新疆燃煤自备电成本，电解铝项目成本 优势显著，给公司带来长期成长空间，是电解铝行业稀缺成长标的。 盈利预测：公司电解铝产量持续提升，绿电并网进一步降本，充分享受铝价上涨所带来的利润弹性，预 计2025-2027年归属母 ...

Group 1: Innovation Industry (02788.HK) - The company focuses on low-cost green electricity aluminum production, with overseas projects supporting high capacity growth [9][10] - Established 6*330MW coal-fired self-supplied power units and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Inner Mongolia [10] - The company is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025, with a projected net profit growth of 51%/63%/34% from 2025 to 2027 [11] Group 2: Angel Yeast (600298.SH) - The company is the leading yeast producer in China and the second largest globally, with a fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons by 2024 [12][13] - It has a market share of 55% in China, benefiting from a global oligopoly structure in the yeast industry [12] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by declining raw material costs and expanding overseas operations, with projected net profits of 15.8/19.7/23.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [15] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The new import beef policy will reduce the volume but increase prices, with a projected 20% decrease in beef imports in 2026 compared to 2024 [27][28] - Global beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reductions in major producing regions, with a 60% increase from the bottom by December 2025 [28][29] - The domestic beef market is expected to see price increases driven by reduced supply and increased demand, with a significant tightening of supply anticipated from 2026 to 2028 [29][30] Group 4: Computer Industry - The AI industry is expected to see continued growth in computing power, with major companies like Microsoft and Google increasing capital expenditures significantly [35][36] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving upgrades in optical modules and PCBs, with a shift towards liquid cooling technology due to rising power density [36][37] - The AI cycle is characterized by sustained penetration driven by technological iterations, differing from previous cycles that experienced peaks and declines [37]