Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from low-cost green electricity in Inner Mongolia, with significant growth potential from overseas projects, particularly in Saudi Arabia [2][33]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through its geographical location, which allows for lower transportation costs of bauxite and electricity generation from low-cost brown coal [19][22]. - The integration of renewable energy sources is expected to further reduce operational costs, enhancing profitability [30][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from electrolytic aluminum [11]. - Established in 2012, the company has developed substantial production capacity, including 300,000 tons of alumina and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [11]. Business Analysis - The alumina production facility is strategically located near major ports, resulting in lower transportation costs for imported bauxite, providing a cost advantage of over 200 RMB per ton compared to inland competitors [19]. - The electrolytic aluminum production benefits from low electricity costs due to the use of local brown coal, with self-generated electricity costs at approximately 0.3 RMB per kWh [22][23]. - The company plans to develop a 1,750 MW wind and solar project, which will significantly reduce electricity costs and enhance its green energy profile [30][31]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts substantial growth in net profit, with projections of 3.1 billion, 5.0 billion, and 6.7 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting annual growth rates of 51%, 63%, and 34% [3][56]. - The earnings per share are expected to increase from 1.49 RMB in 2025 to 3.25 RMB in 2027 [3][56]. - The company maintains a strong EBIT margin and return on equity, indicating robust profitability compared to industry peers [47][49]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company between 32.5 and 40.7 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 24% to 55% compared to its current market value [2][64]. - The valuation is supported by the company's expected high growth over the next five years, with a projected PE ratio of 12-15 times for 2026 [2][64].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月20日 2026年01月21日 创新实业（02788.HK） 优于大市 蒙东低成本绿电铝，海外项目助力产能高增长 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012 年，十几年间在蒙东霍林河建成 6*330MW 燃煤自备电机组和 78.8 万吨电解 铝产能，在山东滨州建成 300 万吨氧化铝产能，于 2025 年 11 月在港交所上 市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领先。公司氧化铝产能靠近滨州港和黄骅 港，进口铝土矿内陆运费低廉，相比河南和山西等内陆产能，运费带来的氧 化铝成本优势在 200 元/吨以上。公司电解铝产能位于蒙东霍林河地区，使 用蒙东低热值褐煤发电炼铝，褐煤热值低、销售半径小，绝对价格和波动幅 度小于市场煤，公司近期自发电成本仅 0.3 元/度含税。相比新疆电解铝产 能聚集区，公司更靠近氧化铝产区和电解铝消费地，氧化铝运费和铝产品外 运费都低于新疆电解铝。公司净利率一直处于行业领先地位。 蒙东 1750MW 绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低 碳和降本两个目标。公司 1750MW 风电光伏项目预计 2026 年全部 ...

Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics concept stocks experienced a broad increase, with notable gains from companies like XAG (02590) up 5.93%, Yunji (02670) up 5.10%, and Blues Technology (06613) up 4.82%. According to an Omdia report, the global annual installation of humanoid robots is expected to add approximately 16,000 units by 2025, with Zhiyuan Robotics leading the market in installations [1][2] - Tianyue Advanced (02631) surged over 15.8% as a report from Zheshang Securities highlighted its active expansion into silicon carbide applications in emerging fields, indicating long-term growth potential [1] - WeRide (00800) rose over 3.4% as it announced that its global Robotaxi fleet will reach 1,000 vehicles by January 12, 2026, with successful commercial operations in cities like Guangzhou, Beijing, and Abu Dhabi [1] - Cao Cao Mobility (02643) increased nearly 8% following its announcement of two strategic acquisitions, including a full acquisition of Weixing Technology and plans to acquire Geely Business Travel [1] Group 2: Energy and Materials Sector - Oil and gas stocks saw significant declines, with Shandong Molong (00568) dropping over 8.1% due to a sharp decrease in international oil prices, with Brent crude futures falling by $2.76 or 4.15% to $63.76 per barrel [2] - Innovation Industry (02788) rose nearly 8% as aluminum prices have surged significantly since 2026, with Huatai Securities indicating that the overall supply-demand tightness will continue, supporting a long-term profit increase in the aluminum sector [2] Group 3: Aerospace and Technology Sector - The commercial aerospace sector showed signs of recovery, with companies like Asia Pacific Satellite (01045) and JunDa Co. (02865) both rising by 5.02%. This follows Elon Musk's announcement that SpaceX aims to increase Starship launch frequency to over once per hour within three years [2] - Weichai Power (02338) increased over 4.9% as it announced advancements in solid-state battery research and strong demand for its power generation products [3] - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) rose over 6.2% as a Counterpoint Research report indicated that the memory market has entered a "super bull market," surpassing historical highs from 2018 [4] Group 4: US Market Highlights - Nuclear power stocks strengthened, with Talen Energy (TLN.US) up 11.8% and Vistra Energy (VST.US) up 6.63%, following news of a new bipartisan bill proposing a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve to secure key minerals domestically [5] - Morgan Stanley (MS.US) rose 5.78% after reporting Q4 revenue growth of 10% to $17.89 billion, exceeding market expectations [5] - The weight loss drug sector faced pressure, with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) down 3.76% as its weight loss drug was placed under FDA review, delaying a decision until April 2026 [6] - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) increased by 0.82% as Omdia reported a significant recovery in the global PC market, with a projected 9.2% increase in total shipments for 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (2788.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 8% to reach a new high of 27.6 HKD, with a cumulative increase of over 80% since its listing, and its market capitalization briefly exceeding 57 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream of the aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [1] - The company has plans to invest in a comprehensive aluminum industry chain project in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with Innovation Group and Innovation New Materials [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Since 2026, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, and the overall supply-demand tightness is expected to persist [1] - Despite cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors, the long-term trend indicates a further upward shift in electrolytic aluminum profit margins, suggesting a continuation of the industry's high-profit cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [1]

创新实业(2788.HK)拉升涨超8%，报27.6港元刷新上市新高价，自上市以来累计升幅超80%，市值一度 站上5700亿港元关口。 ...

创新实业（02788）午前股价上涨7.98%，现报27.34港元，成交额6408.12万港元。 2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因此，尽管当前 电解铝下游采购情绪偏谨慎，但不改变中长期电解铝利润中枢进一步上移趋势，行业高利润周期有望延 续。在此预期下，我们持续看好26H1电解铝板块公司利润进一步走阔。 值得注意的是，2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材等共同投资沙特红海铝产业链综合项 目。国联民生证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电解铝一体化布局，电解铝产能分布在能源成本具备优 势的内蒙地区，未来随着绿电并网发电，电解铝成本有望进一步下降。公司走向海外在沙特扩张电解铝 产能，我们认为公司将成为行业内稀有的有电解铝增量的标的。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 客户端 创新实业（02788）午前股价上涨7.98%，现报27.34港元，成交额6408.12万港元。 2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因此，尽管当前 电解 ...

创新实业(2788.HK)拉升涨超8%，报27.6港元刷新上市新高价，自上市以来累计升幅超80%，市值一度站上570亿港元关口。 消息上，创新实业聚焦于铝产业链上游中的氧化铝精炼和电解铝冶炼。2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。机构指出，2026年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立， 因此，尽管当前电解铝下游采购情绪偏谨慎，但不改变中长期电解铝利润中枢进一步上移趋势，行业高利润周期有望延续。在此预期下，持续看好26H1电 解铝板块公司利润进一步走阔。 值得一提的是，2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材等共同投资沙特红海铝产业链综合项目。国联民生证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电解 铝一体化布局。 ...

消息面上，2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因 此，尽管当前电解铝下游采购情绪偏谨慎，但不改变中长期电解铝利润中枢进一步上移趋势，行业高利 润周期有望延续。在此预期下，我们持续看好26H1电解铝板块公司利润进一步走阔。 值得注意的是，2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材等共同投资沙特红海铝产业链综合项 目。国联民生证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电解铝一体化布局，电解铝产能分布在能源成本具备优 势的内蒙地区，未来随着绿电并网发电，电解铝成本有望进一步下降。公司走向海外在沙特扩张电解铝 产能，我们认为公司将成为行业内稀有的有电解铝增量的标的。 智通财经APP获悉，创新实业(02788)再涨近8%，截至发稿，涨6%，报26.84港元，成交额2873.71万港 元。 ...

创新实业(02788)再涨近8%，截至发稿，涨6%，报26.84港元，成交额2873.71万港元。 消息面上，2026年以来，电解铝价格大幅上涨。华泰证券指出，26年整体供需偏紧逻辑仍然成立，因 此，尽管当前电解铝下游采购情绪偏谨慎，但不改变中长期电解铝利润中枢进一步上移趋势，行业高利 润周期有望延续。在此预期下，我们持续看好26H1电解铝板块公司利润进一步走阔。 值得注意的是，2025年3月，创新实业规划与创新集团、创新新材（600361）等共同投资沙特红海铝产 业链综合项目。国联民生（601456）证券表示，创新实业能源-氧化铝-电解铝一体化布局，电解铝产能 分布在能源成本具备优势的内蒙地区，未来随着绿电并网发电，电解铝成本有望进一步下降。公司走向 海外在沙特扩张电解铝产能，我们认为公司将成为行业内稀有的有电解铝增量的标的。 ...

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average price of 20,646 yuan/ton, up 1.0% compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest level since March 2022 [1] - Institutions predict a tight balance in global aluminum supply and demand over the next two years due to supply constraints from power issues and surging energy storage demand [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Plans - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan and over 35% of electrolytic aluminum capacity meeting benchmark energy efficiency standards [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong profit moat due to its integrated supply chain, expecting net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 4.1%, and 8.3% respectively [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on energy-efficient production, which is expected to lower costs further as green electricity is integrated [3] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) is developing a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, with the first phase planned for 250,000 tons/year, backed by an existing alumina plant in the same industrial park [4] - China Aluminum (02600) holds approximately 2.7 billion tons of bauxite resources, with potential for revaluation under the "China Special Valuation" system, and is positioned to benefit from rising aluminum prices due to its integrated supply chain [4]